News DetailMAJOR heavy rain/snow event pounding California!
Posted At: January 27, 2008 @ 1:45 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
A strong cut-off low pressure system just off the West Coast is pounding the entire state of California and the Western Rocky Mountain region with insanely heavy rain and snow (generally above ~6000-8000 feet depending on location and rate of warm advection ahead of the system), as a strong low-level jet pumps Pacific moisture northeastward. Intense orographic enhancement is also occurring along the Sierra Nevada Mountains and coastal ranges, as this strong, moist southerly flow is forced upward. Thus, the west and south facing slopes will receive the most significant precipitation amounts from this storm.
As much as 4 inches of rain fell last night over parts of Southern California, with the highest amounts in the mountains and south/west facing slopes where orographic enhancement was out of control. In these locations, it would not be impossible to see nearly 10 inches of rain from this event by mid-week, when the system becomes more progressive and moves east. The mountain ranges are well-defined in the WRF forecast precipitation through Monday morning, with even heavier precipitation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains than southern CA! At least another 3-6 inches of water equivalent precipitation will fall in the entire Sierra Nevada Range south of Oregon. As snow levels have risen to 6000-8000 feet overnight with the intense warm advection via the LLJ, the very heavy snows that fell over the Holidays have been melting rapidly, which is contributing further to the threat of flooding and mudslides.
The low-level jet ahead of this system looks more like something we'd see in the Springtime, with 45+ knots forecast at 850 mb through most of today and tonight. The WRF forecast 850 mb flow for 18z today is shown below -- note how there is no data for the higher elevations...this is because much of the Western U.S. has an elevation higher than the 850 mb level.
Given this intense flow just above the surface, and marginal instability with the cold air aloft moving over the relatively warm waters of the Pacific, there will be a threat for mini-supercells this afternoon Southern California, especially near the coast. With 0-1 km helicity values generally in the 150+ m2/s2 range, brief tornadoes will also be possible! The SPC has issued an MD for this region (shown below).
As mentioned, this cut-off system will merge with the westerlies by Tuesday as a trough digs southeastward to its north, and the ridge over the central U.S. flattens into more zonal flow. Thus, the system will continue to effect California and the Rocky Mountains through Wednesday. By Thursday, this same system could produce a severe weather outbreak across the Southern U.S. Stay tuned for more updates as this incredible weather situation unfolds!
As much as 4 inches of rain fell last night over parts of Southern California, with the highest amounts in the mountains and south/west facing slopes where orographic enhancement was out of control. In these locations, it would not be impossible to see nearly 10 inches of rain from this event by mid-week, when the system becomes more progressive and moves east. The mountain ranges are well-defined in the WRF forecast precipitation through Monday morning, with even heavier precipitation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains than southern CA! At least another 3-6 inches of water equivalent precipitation will fall in the entire Sierra Nevada Range south of Oregon. As snow levels have risen to 6000-8000 feet overnight with the intense warm advection via the LLJ, the very heavy snows that fell over the Holidays have been melting rapidly, which is contributing further to the threat of flooding and mudslides.
The watch warning summary is lit up like a Christmas tree across most of the Western U.S., with winter storm warnings outlined in dark blue, and blizzard warnings in black. the extensive flood watches in southern CA and central AZ are highlighted in green.
The low-level jet ahead of this system looks more like something we'd see in the Springtime, with 45+ knots forecast at 850 mb through most of today and tonight. The WRF forecast 850 mb flow for 18z today is shown below -- note how there is no data for the higher elevations...this is because much of the Western U.S. has an elevation higher than the 850 mb level.
Given this intense flow just above the surface, and marginal instability with the cold air aloft moving over the relatively warm waters of the Pacific, there will be a threat for mini-supercells this afternoon Southern California, especially near the coast. With 0-1 km helicity values generally in the 150+ m2/s2 range, brief tornadoes will also be possible! The SPC has issued an MD for this region (shown below).
As mentioned, this cut-off system will merge with the westerlies by Tuesday as a trough digs southeastward to its north, and the ridge over the central U.S. flattens into more zonal flow. Thus, the system will continue to effect California and the Rocky Mountains through Wednesday. By Thursday, this same system could produce a severe weather outbreak across the Southern U.S. Stay tuned for more updates as this incredible weather situation unfolds!
In other news, a blizzard is hammering parts of the Canadian Prairies today through Tuesday. A blog post will be posted about this event tomorrow. Please send any pictures or Youtube video clips to reed@tornadovideos.net if you'd like to share them on the blog!
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Yea California has been hit hard and that seems its gonna continue. How bad of an outbreak could this system have once it hits the plains and the south?
all right 2nd comment!!!
i wish i was in California now
Awesome blog entry. It will definitely be interesting to see how all of this unfolds throughout the week.
We ALMOST made it to 60 here today!
Hey guys! Yeah, I'm interested to see how this system will play out on the plains this next week. We shall see eh?
Heidi: high of 67 today!! Woohoo!
WOW possable tornado north east of temple city! strong rotation!
I know it's about the tornadoes in cali(THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW lol)
Here in Alberta
The "blizzard" is still going strong it looks like the montana low is a little more north and right now I am getting the 4th wave of near blizzard conditions
1st wave from north, 6:30AM-7:30AM the shortest wave. 3cm -15C
2nd wave from north, 9:30AM-1:30PM huge flakes higher winds. 8cm -20C
3rd wave from west, 2:30PM-4:30PM moderate snow with gusts reducing visability to zero. 5cm -22C
4th wave from south, 5:00pm- ongoing, Winds still high blowing snow constant moderate snow.
Snow was falling but light between the waves of heavier snow
Yep! I hear ya Mike, it sure is strong still! I sent in my video from 6:00 AM this morning, and 10:00 AM to Reed, along with some pictures.
Yep it was a good birthday present for me.
Where abouts do you live Mike R? I don't think I even got 16-20 cm...
are you uploading to youtube?
I can't do anything about my video as my firewire cord is 16km away, Not reachable givin the bad roads
Don't forget about the Cape Storm off of Mass. Some serious snow and wind out there if it was 50 miles west the big cities would be in trouble.
heidi- models feb. 5th look at arctic air brushing in- look at pressure gradient and look at precip- ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh must maintain sanity
Uh is anyone taking a look at the models for Feb 5-6!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
lol i need to get a hold of myself.
So this must be the harsh winter they warned us about
If anyone doesn't know there was a tornadic event in 2005 in Sacramento that was photographed heavily heres a link:
http://tornado.sfsu.edu/SacTornado/SacTornado.html
Winter storm watch upgraded to blizzard warning!!!!!!!!!
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?sk9
Winter storm warnings for much of alberta
pretty interesting weather happening in various parts of the U.S. and Canada Tonight..
Thanks for the heads-up on the Feb 5-6 GFS. I now have something to laugh at for the next five days or so. I of course saved the screen shot! :D
So, why was there no snowstorm intercept by Dean?
that feb 5th-6th storm looks like a MONSTER! It covers practically everyone in the U.S. at some point.. lol hmmmmmmmmmmmm
still going strong. Stuck in millet at my moms for the 2nd night. my mom is away for the week and my brother is room and boarding there, He is making this one very misrable night
How much total accumulation would you say fell at your place Mike?
Thanks for the photos Mike and Kenny...I'll be making a blog post about this event tomorrow morning.
Dean should definitely be in Blue Canyon
I seriously hate the GFS for teasing us in Jan, but if it comes through with what it is showing for day 8 currently I will never bad mouth it again. As much as the GFS has flip-flopped around recently, it will need to be consistent for atleast 3 days (or 7) before I start checking all my equipment.
Yea... dropped the ball BIG TIME on this current west coast event. Can't remember the last time the Western US was slammed by this many intense storms in short order. Snow falling to sea level on the Oregon Coast and even far NW California Coast.
Snow fell in Eureka, CA today!!!!!! VERY VERY RARE! Incredible snow rates in the Sierra Nevada. As Reed mentioned, I need to be in Blue Canyon, CA.
Actually my previous intercept location Mt Shasta City, CA had 3 hours of heavy snow and zero visibility today with a quick 5-10 inches.
Anyway... I missed out, but not too worry, I'm sure my next snow intercept is forthcoming.
Edmonton, AB - Blizzard conditions have ceased this morning, 0430. Most of the concern on Sunday was blowing & drifting snow and zero visibility; Fortunately, people drove sensibly while my family and I were driving on the Whitemud. Today, the primary concern will be the wind chill which currently sits at -51 F, winds about 25 mph NNW.
This is the first significant Winter event for Edmonton - up until now, we had been rather spoilt with milder temperatures and snow conditions. Hard to guage the amount of snowfall; however, we had to clear our front steps and sidewalk several times in a span of only 3-4 hours, with about 5-6 inches of snow each time, although I'm sure much of it was drifting snow as opposed to actual snowfall. It might be safe to estimate that we received approximately 10-12 inches of fresh snow over the past 24 hours.
I'd still rather be here than California! What a year for them...
Howdy there, I watch your site quite often and I've watched all your chase videos. And obviously since I'm posting a comment, I read all your comments as well ^^;
Just wondering, what kind of storm is supposed to be hitting on the 5th and 6th? Particularly, what's going to be hitting the Chicago IL area?
Raven, that storm for the 5th and 6th of Feb. could be either rain or snow for Chicago, but it's way down the road, and the forecast models will change in regards to the track/timing/intensity before we get to early next week, so my best advice for you is to check back with this site during the week..
and we have wind chill watches in effect here in Duluth, MN for Tomorrow/Wednesday, also a snow/blowing snow adv. for Tomorrow.. This next blast of arctic air looks even worse then what we went thru up here last week, thankfully it doesn't look like it's going to last more than 2 days
Ha ha Raven Welcome to tornadovideos.net!
Hey guys don't got a lot of time cause I'm at school AAAAAAAAA just finished math ?
Depending on the timing of this Feb. 5th/6th system (and obviously if it holds together), it looks like high-risk potential for the gulf coast. Right now it has the highest temps and best moisture from the 0Z-12Z. A late-afternoon arrival could be a bad scene down there.
Geez I hate the GFS beyond 3 days (but would complain if it wasn't available! ;) - It's painful! time after time!!!
NOW it's showing a snowstorm here for Thursday ... AGAIN! (... about which I would not complain AT ALL, but it's hard getting ones hopes up time after time!!! ;)
lol i hear ya Heidi.. Geeze that 850 mb temp gradient This Morning is about as extreme as i've ever seen. +12 to +16 degrees C across the Plains with -20 to -34 degree C 850 mb temps over the Northern Rockies and Alberta Province! YIKES!
At the risk of soundng dumb, what is the Red PL on the GFS precipitation type model?
Thanks!
Toby
Heyyy guys!!! I'm going to take some videos for you all of this blizzard. right now its -18 C, feels like -33 C. Another inch of snow to come....
GET THIS!!!!!!!!! This evening, -25 feels like -43 w/windchill, and overnight, -35 C feels like MINUS 55 WITH WINDCHILL!!!!!!! :O
By the way, that works out to -67 F!!!!!! Wow....I may live in Saskatchewan but that will officially be the colder i've ever lived through!
Toby that would be ice.
Nice in Ohio today nearing 50 with thunder for Tuesday and highs again around 50.
here its 40 degree's its nice but no snow yet and its on record as the dryest january here.
Hey Thanks Gerb! We are getting wind gusts to 60 mph in the Texas Panhandle today! One time its good to be short and fat hehe.
Toby
Got videos for you guys, will upload them later after class. Didnt get any of them very long because I lost feeling in my fingers :P. But hope you enjoy!!
lol thats gotta be cold for fingers go numb how cold is up there sk?
lol where r ur gloves/mittens SKgirl? oh my lord!
And the SPC 11:30 AM update has just put out a see text wording for Arkansas, even a 2% risk of tornadoes. Get ready Heidi..
Justin look a few posts above...its -33 C with the windchill, and going to cool constantly. Tim, how about that -67 F we have coming, ever see anything so cold?!?!?!
Well you all can keep the cold up north. It's supposed to be 72 degree's here today but then snow Tuesday evening, and Thursday/Friday :( Oh well this gives me hope Spring will be here sometime soon :()
Btw, I was wearing mitts!
never skgirl, at least here in the city where i'm at..I believe Embarrass MN got down to around 60 below F back in early February i believe in the mid 1990s, i know it was a new state record for cold temps, i just can't remember the exact temp/year it took place... I'm an awe at the 850 mb temp contrast we have from Montana to the Plains right now! Totally amazing!!!!!
I wonder if that will be a record for the coldest windchill in this city...i imagine for anyone like me with asthma that would be an instant asthma attack in that !!
yea ummm i don't know why anyone would wanna be outdoors in that weather, unless you have to be somewhere, but seriously, those types of temps/wind chills are INSANE!!!!!!!!! that airmass is coming this way, suppose to arrive here in Duluth, MN Tuesday Morning!
Yeah well I really hope it doesnt get that bad when that hits you, it's supposed to stay this way until Thursday!! :X
Uploading the videos on photobucket now...!!!!!
Thank you Tim. I was just curious because a few people mentioned something about a major storm, but didn't say what kind or anything else about it. Hopefully it won't get too intense up here.