News DetailTEXTBOOK lake effect event downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario!
Posted At: January 23, 2008 @ 11:00 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Snow
Classic westerly-flow lake effect bands have persisted east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today and this evening, with 1-3 inch per hour snowfall rates likely at the heart of the snow bands. Storm total accumulations of 1-3 feet will be likely across Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and southern Erie Counties in western NY, and Oswego County east of Lake Ontario. Shown below is the Lake Erie Band on Buffalo, NY radar through Wednesday evening:
The counties favored in W-WNW-ly lake effect flow for Lakes Erie and Ontario are shaded in dark blue/green below, where lake effect snow warnings are in effect. The bands are expected to drift slowly southward as the night progresses, and will pummel the communities of Jamestown and Fulton, NY later tonight with incredible snowfall rates. Even the southern Lake Ontario shore from Niagara Falls through Rochester, NY has a lake effect snow advisory in effect, for storm total accumulations of 4-8 inches, as smaller, less intense snow squalls roll in off the lake.
The special weather statement for Chautauqua County, including the town of Jamestown, had especially strong wording as of 10:00 pm EST, with the mention of 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates. The heaviest portion of the band is currently in the northern portion of this county, but is expected to drift towards the central portion of the county over the next several hours. If anyone in these communities would like to share photos of the heavy snow, please email them to reed@tornadovideos.net.
The counties favored in W-WNW-ly lake effect flow for Lakes Erie and Ontario are shaded in dark blue/green below, where lake effect snow warnings are in effect. The bands are expected to drift slowly southward as the night progresses, and will pummel the communities of Jamestown and Fulton, NY later tonight with incredible snowfall rates. Even the southern Lake Ontario shore from Niagara Falls through Rochester, NY has a lake effect snow advisory in effect, for storm total accumulations of 4-8 inches, as smaller, less intense snow squalls roll in off the lake.
The special weather statement for Chautauqua County, including the town of Jamestown, had especially strong wording as of 10:00 pm EST, with the mention of 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates. The heaviest portion of the band is currently in the northern portion of this county, but is expected to drift towards the central portion of the county over the next several hours. If anyone in these communities would like to share photos of the heavy snow, please email them to reed@tornadovideos.net.
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HEY all looks like Im the first. Plaese dont freeze over u guys. send me some snow I cant stand this heat anymore its going to be 108f today..... well u all take care
Once again ... I have family southeast of Buffalo!!! :D Unfortunately I don't think they have internet access, so don't expect any photos this time.
Henri gets the prize for high temp. this winter!
Hi ..
Heidi lol Its summer by me.... Im in Africa thats why its so hot..lol Take care Im done working for the day its 4:43 pm
c ya all
(Henri - I knew you were in Africa ;)
Man, I wish my fam. near Buffalo did have internet. I put GR3 on a loop and at one point there was over 50 DBZ right on top of where they live. There is a "ski hill" at that same spot, too (Tamarack)!
Where does Reed get this radar that hes showing us?
(md=pr RN is regular precip map and md = cl RN is snow map?) Not sure what those abbreviations stand for.
Snowed pretty good here in Ohio about 1.5 in or so. Cold and windy now with about 19 going down to 6 tonight.
We don't have a temp right now! hehe 0f!! Looks like a nice warm up coming our way!! =) =( Idk what that all means for us here!! I'm waiting to here what Tim has to say!! Rain?? Snow?? Idk??
hey guys how is everyone?
looks pretty impressive there! stilkl nothing going on here lol but ill be ready wheb something does....
i managed to get some damage pics of a storm we had lasst year, it completely took our fence away and threw it a good 50 yards, and mosts of our trees in our yard were blown down aswell, ill upload the pics later tonight wheb i get home and the pics from the minor flooding we have had....
I think I remember that storm Timmy!! Can't wait to see em!! How Have you been? How's the UK??
Hey guys wats happening today?????
Temperature is at -9C right now not to cold right now. I'm just looking foward to storm season and getting a new camera.
Brady, yes a warm-up is coming into next Monday, but more very cold air looks to follow afterwards... A huge storm (in terms of pressure) possibly record breaking for late January looks to hit Minnesota Monday/Monday Evening. Back to the pressures, were talking between 970-975 mb as it crosses the Dakotas and moves up into Ontario Province the way it looks now, i have even seen some models drop the pressure down to 968 mb! The problem i think were gonna run into is a lack of moisture with this storm, but with that said...It still looks like were gonna see some precip, what falls will depend on the temp, i'm leaning toward ice myself, possibly upwards of 0.10" to 0.20" amounts? again that would fall here on Monday.. i'll keep ya posted bud
Brady, you could see snow next week around Tuesday. I think it'll most likely start out as rain and then later turn into some snow. The heavy part appears to be rain though..
Anyway! Boring here as always! The great news is, the foothills have been getting all the snow! That's bad news snow wise, but thunderstorm wise..It's great! Because the foothills have been getting so much snow(10-20 even 30 cm) More moisture is going to be available in the summer, therefore allowing violent supercells to form! 2008 just could be the season to see my first tornado!
Let's hope we can both score that first hose!! Be careful when you do Kenny!! Getting back safe to post the vid or pics is the most important part!! A close up vid is no good if you die before you can upload it!!
Thanx again for the info Tim!! Let's hope some cooler temps will fit in there somewhere!! Man that's some major low pressure!! I'd like to see that in another couple a months!!
The first signs of Cabin Fever are starting to kick in a lil!! I'd like to get out and enjoy winter a few more times! But this winter is getting a lil lame!! First the snow, then the cold, then a lil more snow, then warm as can possibly be, then cold as hell that drags on!! Now warm again!! Still has been better than last winter and we have a ways to go yet!
omg here this is wat we been gettin rain-rain and more rain and still no snow but last year already had 1 snowday and million delayed opening's neither one yet
I know I'm blowing up the blog now and I'm sorry!! It's my day off and I'm bored lol!! We haven't had one delay or cancelation around the Duluth area yet this year!! (correct me if I'm wrong Tim) All of our snow came on the weekends!! And it takes -35 below to close schools here!!
hey tim and brady i have a site for you..
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MN&prodtype=discussion
it talks about short term and long term situations..maybe you already knew about that.
i just checked out the nao- its going negative comes the first of feb- now this is going to be fun and games ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Donny - check out the GFS for us for next Thursday night into Friday.
:D :D :D :D :D
It's almost as bad as that WRF run back in Dec. that nearly caused me to faint!
Oops, I didn't realize that that IS the first of Feb. Ha-ha!
thanks for the info. Greg, but yea i check those on a daily basis, i can't speak for Brady though..lol. But thanks.. Brady, i'm pretty sure ur right about not having any school cancellations so far this Winter here in Duluth, MN... Like you said, most of our snow has fallen on the weekends, except for that fluke early December lake effect dump, but they didn't let schools out that day.. And i'm not sure how cold it has to get in order to close schools up here, i know it would have to below zero air temps, but i think alot of it depends on how low the wind chill is.. off topic here, but Cody Street in West Duluth is ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE, nothing but bumps, can't go more than 15-20 mph down that road.. sry about that-lol
Thanx for the link Greg!! Looks quite interesting the next few days!! We'll have to see how it plays out for us here!!
I take it that means $hitty street season has started here! ( like we ever have nice roads)!! This is def not a town for cars low to the ground!! Nice to see it's finally warmed up to 8f! Down right balmy now!! hehe
Hey Brady..... yeh i was pretty cool, but still, im sure nothing compared to what you get over there lol.... yeh things are good, we are starting to get warmer here already we reached 54 today, afyer all the rain we had it was nice lol, how are things in Duluth?? sorry about the late reply i was at work sorry
Hey Brady, Tim, and everyone else. What's up out there? Brady, if that's what you call balmy, you are crazy ;) haha. It's 34 here, with a sharp wind that makes it feel more like 24. I've also got a rather odd cloud bank rolling in... pics to follow.
MAN I WISH I COULD HAVE A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS SPRING our tornado months is I belive April and maby July and some times Augest but I'm not saying we won't have any more tornadoes after I'm crossing my fingers!
also i believe there may have been a water main break out toward Smithville/Gary New Duluth Today Brady, i was driving out to Oliver WI earlier, and saw that Riverside Drive or road was blocked off with all sorts of public works people out digging up parts of the road, aaaaaaahhhhhhh pipes freezing and bursting-lol, not good! thankfully it's warming up out there.. and Hi to AJ and the other Tim as well
I happened to glance out my window for a second, and behold! A large cloud bank... hmm...
http://i25.tinypic.com/3525idx.jpg
http://i32.tinypic.com/2pql47p.jpg
http://i31.tinypic.com/2ynjzhh.jpg
Oh I know I'm crazy!! That's nuttin new! I think ya gotta be a lil crazy to live here!! hehe
Same ol stuff here Tim!! Having your fence blown 50yds away isn't very normal here Tim!!
Pipes freezing in Duluth! whoda thunk it!! lol I guess it coulda been a worse year year for that!!
Nice pics AJ!
and hey Tim aswell
AJ looks like a Altocumulus or nimbostratus usally a front is comming in... Ya rembere the list of stuff we've been in in weather AJ? LOL I was jellus cause YOU HAVE MORE WEATHER INSADENTS AAAAAAAAA had to get it off my chest LOL
lol freezing pipes Brady :P....it was pretty cool to see lol, blown over my the garden behind my house and into the street and about 6 trees were blown down, and they aint no twigs either....
ill get some pics of the floding at my school tomorrow aswell
Thanks guys! Caleb, don't worry, you've got plenty of moons to go to rack up more weather incidents. lol. I just happened to lack common sense when I first started out. haha.
WOOOOHOOOOO.. Even though I dislike snow and bad winter weather..
I am under a Winter Storm Warning!!! First Winter Storm Warning for North Texas. North of DFW.. I am suppost to be moving tomorrow.
But hey we havent had any "weather" around here in a while so this will be exciting.. I will take some photos!!
Yeah LOL here is some pis of the damage of the tornado but i've senced moved.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/damage_surveys/html/040530-clark-torn.php
i wont hold my breath heidi lol- sides the 540 line is just entering nw arkansas but that time- now if the 540 line were to push more south to near lousiana- then i would get more excited- however in the short term heidi- can you say severe weather maybe monday/tuesday? highs temps go in the low-mid 60s wind fields are scary- worth watching if you ask me
anyway guys im out for the night, have a good day all of ya see ya!!
And Donny, the 12z GFS from Today is building up some MLCAPE across the Southern Plains early next week, gonna be a powerful low up in the Northern Plains, i just wonder how much moisture gets into this storm system
like the pics AJ! The color contrast between the blue and the grayish looking clouds is very cool!
Tim the SPC dose'nt say anything about that they don't have a D-5 yet I'm not saying that will change... also right now there is a 2% chance of tornadoes in CA
yup i saw that to tim lol almost time for me to go into alert mode on my uncle and i's sight
Yea the SPC is playing it safe, but i wouldn't be shocked at all to see a risk area for Next Monday/Tuesday for parts of the Southern Plains by Tomorrow's outlook
ok tim- i made a map yesterday- tell me what you think
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/nextweekssevereweatherthreat.gif
I just made a map here is mine
http://s212.photobucket.com/albums/cc208/NADOKID1/?action=view¤t=usa-conic-1225-2.gif
Yeah Donny, it's got me interested, so I'll be keeping an eye on next week's possible action. On another note, I just snapped this picture from my driveway. Too bad Photoshop isn't working for me... :(
http://i32.tinypic.com/2ufsojo.jpg
Nice pics AJ!! Very pretty colors!! Good job!!
Feb 1st looks very interesting for the southern plains... Cold air moving in at the same time as a deep low pressure! Winterstorm anyone?
Awesome pictures AJ!...and Winter Storm Warning for the DFW area!
In another more serious note, i purchased life insurance today, just one in the many steps of getting ready for the chase season, and hoping to make it out past central Iowa...
I plan on using my Tax Refund and Tax Rebate, to either purchase, and fix a older vehicle to chase in, or get new tires, Power Steering, and Tune up for my current vehicle.
I maxed my cards out on gas chasing last season! I also had to buy some stuff for the house (microwave ect)! My return is all going to them so I can max em out again this season!! hehe Why not??
Haha...Credit/debit/checking accounts are dangerous things! lol
I find it much easier to carry cash, then spend without paying much attention to it.
After i Read this, i didnt want anyone to mis interpret things..because i care very much about how much i spend chasing.
By this: "I find it much easier to carry cash, then spend without paying much attention to it."
I meant, it seems like if u frequently pay with Credit/Debit/Checks, you do not keep track, and soon have unprecedented charges.
Hey guys...it was actually warmer here today, -11 C, and lightly snowing now even though not in the forecast (big shock? NOT)
Pretty sad when not even snow can cheer me up...
I guess snow is what you make of it SK... I'd be rather pissed if it snowed again here. However, there seems to be a warming trend in the forecast, so I don't have to worry about the chance of that happening, thank goodness. Thanks for the comments too guys! And while we're on the subject, I happen to love my debit card-when I have money in my account. haha
AJ, snow normally makes me very happy and relaxes me, I normally get giddy. But that isnt working tonight!! As Donny, he knows why :P. if i catch you online later, AJ, i'll explain.
Powerfull thunderstorm hit mexico city...check the news,...winds up 60 mph! 4 killed
unseasonable and rare thunderstorm...
Hey Skgirl meet me on myspace, and you can tell me bout it too..
10-4 on that sk
Ahh, ok... gotcha ;)
I'm searching the news sources, and I'm not finding anything about a powerful storm in Mexico City...
very cool maps Donny and Caleb.. looks like the area i'd be watching as well based off earlier models from Today..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
INNER WATERS FROM SANTA BARBARA TO SAN MATEO PT AND OUT 30
NM.
* UNTIL 1000 PM PST
* AT 748 PM PST...SEVERAL STORM CELLS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS. SOME OF THESE STORM CELLS HAVE INDICATED ROTATION
...THEREFORE WATERSPOUTS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...A QUICK DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CATALINA ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS TOWARDS LONG BEACH. ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
and for what it's worth 18z GFS model run has come in somewhat wetter for next Monday around here Brady, also somewhat colder, especially at 850 mb, low intensity is still the same..and the track is pretty much the same as well.. still think we may be dealing with ice around here on Monday.. Donny, Jim Cantore was talking about those cells on Evening Edition around 8:30 Tonight, they looked pretty intense! Cool stuff out there!
i didn't even know tim lol i been watching smokey and the bandit on encore - and looks like there tornado warned now
I'm getting a rain/snow mix!!!
Meanwhile, someone needs to explain to me why Los Angeles County has TWO TORNADO WARNINGS
well conner theres 2 different cells that have strong rotation within them
TORNADO WARNING ISSUE IN CALIFORNIA!!
CAC037-250600-
/O.CON.KLOX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080125T0600Z/
LOS ANGELES CA-
917 PM PST THU JAN 24 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM PST FOR
SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF LONG BEACH...SAN PEDRO...LAKEWOOD AND NORWALK...
AT 912 PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE CELL WAS 4 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LONG BEACH...
AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY
930 PM PST.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAWTHORNE...TORRANCE AND LYNWOOD
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR
HANDS.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3370 11835 3373 11838 3395 11837 3394 11796
3391 11796 3385 11804 3379 11808 3375 11808
3373 11811 3375 11818 3369 11831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 183DEG 90KT 3442 11821
$$
Morning people. Hope u all have a great night. ill make u all coffee to warm you up in the morning
morning to you to henri- thanks for the coffee- i'll have it with a little cream and 2 sweet and lows lol-
Darrelle- i agree- i think is just a prelude to what i think is going to happen once those storms move into the plains
Donny one cuppa joe little cream 2 splendas has been shiped with ups to your location. ...lol HEIDI AND DONNY.. what do you guys think about this years outlook in the plains . Just asking what u think will happen this year. Its funny so many tornadoes, so early in the year. Or maybe its going to be quiet, and i understand you cant predict it, but surely u guys have a gut feeling or something. well thanks guys you all sleep tight
incredible storm in Norway atm.
LA tornado :O:O DAY AFTER TOMMORROW ALL OVER AGAIN!! (greatest movie ever!!!)
well henri i do think its going to be an active spring i mean looking at the gfs- wow you should see it its going to get active-if it holds true and looking at the spc outlooks- i am very surprised they dont have parts of oklahoma, arkansas, and texas outlined for a severe weather threat tuesday but they do for the day 7 period
After about 2 or so inches of snow on Thursday woke up to a low of -5 but at least its sunny. Looks like another inch or so on Saturday then it warms to the mid 40's by early next week with some showers. Ohio rules.
Hey Donny this is my take on Tuesday. And I think your right the SPC should make note about Tuesday. This is just what I see for Tuesday in the models.
250 mb winds- anywhere from 80-130 knots.
850 mb winds- around 45 knots at 18Z but at 12Z anywhere from 45-80 knots.
SBCAPE- around 1000 j/kg. Not very high but high enough.
there is a storng cap forecast at 12Z but the 18Z model shows the cap clearing out.
Temperature will be in the high 60s.
And the Dewpoint will also be in the 60s.
Anyways thats just my take on for Tuesday.
very good matt- - you know what lacks for cape- will make up for in shear-i mean even though i don't know where i can find a model that shows the energy helicity index- that you can find it hrew this simple equation cape multiepied bye helcity divided bye 160,000 - i did that- took the highest helicity- which was over 500- and highest cape i can find- ended up with an ehi value of 2.1 which is very supportive of tornados