News DetailTornado Outbreak possible early next week!
Posted At: January 2, 2008 @ 2:43 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
An incredible southwest U.S. trough will develop by Sunday into Monday next week, pumping spring-time moisture northward across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley and providing the ingredients for a record-breaking severe weather outbreak if this morning's long-range models verify. Selected GFS forecast panels for Monday (left) and Tuesday (right) are shown below:
As seen below, a 50-80 knot low-level jet will develop in response to low-level cyclogenesis to the east of the massive trough. In addition to pumping unseasonable moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, this LLJ will also provide incredible low-level wind shear in the warm sector with more than sufficient values for tornadoes if this morning's model runs verify!
The GFS forecast dewpoints for Monday (left) and Tuesday (right) are hard to believe for this time of year, with 60 dewpoints as far north as eastern OK on Monday, and the Missouri Bootheel by Tuesday!! Given the cold temperatures aloft with this winter-time system, the CAPE values associated with this kind of moisture would be insane! Even though the GFS has shown considerable run-to-run consistency, it's still difficult to jump on the bandwagon and believe in these model forecasts...but if this verifies, we could be looking at the apocalypse...and I'll definitely be heading south to chase this one.
In closing, here is a picture of the incredible snowfall that has occurred just south of Bangor, Maine, with over 2 feet falling over the last few days, and over 3 feet on the ground! Also included below is a video from same snowstorm further north near Montreal Quebec over New Years. The picture is courtesy of Marc Farrar and the video is courtesy of Caro. Enjoy!!
As seen below, a 50-80 knot low-level jet will develop in response to low-level cyclogenesis to the east of the massive trough. In addition to pumping unseasonable moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, this LLJ will also provide incredible low-level wind shear in the warm sector with more than sufficient values for tornadoes if this morning's model runs verify!
The GFS forecast dewpoints for Monday (left) and Tuesday (right) are hard to believe for this time of year, with 60 dewpoints as far north as eastern OK on Monday, and the Missouri Bootheel by Tuesday!! Given the cold temperatures aloft with this winter-time system, the CAPE values associated with this kind of moisture would be insane! Even though the GFS has shown considerable run-to-run consistency, it's still difficult to jump on the bandwagon and believe in these model forecasts...but if this verifies, we could be looking at the apocalypse...and I'll definitely be heading south to chase this one.
In closing, here is a picture of the incredible snowfall that has occurred just south of Bangor, Maine, with over 2 feet falling over the last few days, and over 3 feet on the ground! Also included below is a video from same snowstorm further north near Montreal Quebec over New Years. The picture is courtesy of Marc Farrar and the video is courtesy of Caro. Enjoy!!
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For all the chasers out there I hope it does happen! Just in open fields though....
I'll be heading back to Norman tomorrow, and will be keeping a close eye on this.
well i hate to say this- i really do- but i called it 4 days ago lol- well none the less- i expect to at least see a moderate risk of severe weather out for this region- i know i would
Heidi Is'nt that your husbend up there marc farr?? cuse one day Reed posted a blog entrey that had a photo of a supercell from AR, and it said Heidi Farr just asking. Also I use my mom's digital camra. it's bigger than pocket sized.it's pretty good tho :)
I love your enthusiasm, Reed. "The apocalypse." :-)
(BTW: Has anyone noticed that there isn't a single top item posting on tv.net that doesn't end in an exclamation mark! The sign of a true weather enthusiast!)
Great picture, btw!
It's about time you posted something about this Reed lol:P
Yeah, this is going to be great!!! Tornadoes in the middle of winter? What a way to start 2008! Oh and that picture is increadible... Nice vid by the way to Caro!
It looks like North Dakota and Southern Manitoba will see a big Blizzard from this same low that will cause tornadoes in the south! Maybe Reed could post the potential of a major Blizzard for the Northern Plains and a Tornado Outbreak for the south. It probably isn't uncommon for a Blizzard and tornado outbreak to happen with the same system in spring, but mid winter????
Well going to work all weekend, so I can have monday off. Just hope the storm are not moveing as fast as the one's last fall. But still early to deck the car off,( only have 2 of 5 ant. on. ( wife) lol
Jason Young
Oklahoma
I might also get stuff the weather man said thunderstorms next week and increesing temps!
holy crap. wish i was there
Caleb, that's not my husband but Marc is in our family! :) Good memory though!
I saved a screen shot of the 850 mb wind profile for this system when it was still 228 hrs out. It really hasn't changed at all.
I am now issuing a moderate-risk for an all-time high number of AAAAAAAs from me should an SPC moderate risk be issued in the day-3 outlook on Sunday. Plan now for this, and take whatever precautions you see as necessary. :P
Just out of curiosity, Reed/anyone else, where would you put a target area on this *AT THIS POINT* (You know, so I can set out some cones to save my spot ;)
Yeah, On a side note, there is some pretty cold air on the back side of this system...... Depending on how much moisture is left, tornadoes followed by a snowstorm here in Oklahoma?? This storm is too similiar to the one back in November of 2006! Anyone agree?
THE NATIONAL WEATHER HEIDI SERVICE HAS ISSUED A MODERET RISK FOR SOUTH CENTREL AAAAAAAA UNTIL 256 PM CENTREL HEIDI TIME. AT 254 PM TRAINED HEIDIES SAW A MULTIVORTEX TORNADO NEAR HEIDIVILLE. just playing heidi LOL
I'm STOKED as HECK about this possible storm for next week, but i'm trying to stay low key, but it's hard too. Track differences are pretty enormous right now though between the GFS and EURO models. But, like Heidi said, the GFS has been pretty consistent with the 850 mb wind fields. I just wonder with all the frozen/snow covered grounds across the Plains if it'll take the low on a more southerly track??? But, hey it's gonna be a fun one to watch, that's for sure!! :)
You got it, Caleb. Way to help the others prepare!
Yeah LOL....
Anyone watch the Sister Twister on WE channel?
lol your funny caleb - thanks i needed that laugh after the crappy day i have had- ohh heidi- i already pinpointed ina myspace bulliten on where i think the slight and moderate risk should be applied-
Ok this setup is starting to get everyone's attention including mine. My dad and I will be chasing this if it verifies. A MOD risk sounds appropriate, but I was looking back at past winter outbreaks and 1500-2000 j/kg of CAPE is equivalent to 4000 j/kg in May. With those cold temps aloft I wouldnt be surprised to see huge hail with these storms as conditions look favorable for explosive development. The low level shear is looking great and so is moisture. This setup won't be some cold core low topped tiny tornado stuff if the models verify we will see full blown cells with possible tornadoes. So with that said I'm getting ready. Not excited yet, just ready to chase it.
I see how some of you are talking about November stuff, those setups consisted of 250-500 j/kg of cape so imagine 1500-2000 j/kg!
yeah, I'm ready for it as well..... This looks way too interesting.
Yeah did you mention the 12z are looking grate looks like a tornado outbrake potintal. the 4000j/kg of CAPE also. this is kinda a spring-summer set-up maby a text book. moisture feed may leed to heavy rain and large hail. and there might be anaugh wind aloft to creat tornadoes. those winds are maby 30-60 MPH although there may be tornadoes the downdrafts may take the wind aloft and drag them to the ground. around 5:00 5:30 the sun may heat the ground and the CAPE may exspoade. there is also a potintal for exsposive supercells with long track tornadoes. so yes a MOD risk is needed unless the winds aloft are under the anvils. then the wole supercells are ripped apart. If the winds aloft are too low possabilty of LP supercells If it's to high HP supercells. witch may happen
i'v been watching all the twister sister espisodes and btw did any one see the one on the outlaw chaser's some one sayed that was on tv?
yeah I think everyone on TV.net did becuse Reed madde a blog entry
I'm determined not to get into a thing where I'm reacting to each run, but ... I did have to mention that the GFS has slowed things down a bit, spelling not so good news for severe potential for AR, better news for OK. There, that's all I'm saying!
Yeah, Heidi, I've noticed that as well. Thats good news, becuase now central Oklahoma - where I live might be included in the action... YAY!!!
Models are also hinting at another cold outbreak, and potent winterstorm for the central/southern plains in the middle of the month....hmmm. First lets get through this one.
where exactly will this tornado outbreak happen?????
i hope it's also in northeastern illinois!!!
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where will this tornado outbreak take place??????????????
right now, appears to be a Southern Plains event..I.E. Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas. You could have some thunder up into Northeast Illinois as well, but probably nothing severe. But, that could change. I'm seeing lots of differences with the forecast models for next week though, one thing that appears certain is for a deep trof coming out of the Western U.S. whether we see a multiple low pressure systems, followed by a deepening Great Lakes storm by mid-week remains to be seen. 00z GFS really winds up a powerful Great Lakes low next Wednesday-Thursday, but again this will likely change with each new model run
10 day GFS model shows possible Water Spouts near the Gulf of Mexico! I wonder how this will plan out..
Nothing exciting here in Edmonton..Just a nice little Warm front that passed through last night and gave(and still is) warm temperatures! We Reached approximately 35 or 36F( I think is 2 degrees celcius) and warm temperatures are expected to last until around Sunday, when that stupid Arctic Airmass sinks south..
keep that arctic air up in Canada Kenny, don't want it here in Minnesota..we've had enuf of it so far.
No thanks Tim..I rather it stay up in the NWT...I don't like the arctic air especially since we first experienced -15 to -20c temperatures for the first little while of November..and by little I mean a few weeks. It's a relief to be so warm right now, but it's ashame to have the Arctic Airmass sink south again..Tim I think you guy's get colder then we do here on average for some reason...It's because the Arctic waters in Northern MB aids with the frigid temperatures sink low..but you also have the warm waters from the Lakes..
well the warm-up occurring up there is moving this way. Temps have already risen from zero up to 5 above in the last few hours, lol i know that's not too warm, but hey it's a start. Looking at daytime highs in the 20s and 30s around here the next several days. I'm watching all that arctic air up in Alaska and Northwest Terrorities, i have a feeling it'll find it's way into Minnesota, but hopefully it can hold off a good week or two weeks. It does get bitter around Minnesota during the Winter, that's for sure, i think the state record low was somewhere around 60 below in Embarrass MN back in February in the late 1990's, can't remember the exact date off hand though.
Sooo....someone want to explain why cape values in wintertime are insane even if they are only 1000?
well chris it's like this- you rarelly see this kinda of warmth and mositure and all kinds of isntability avilable this early in the year
The more and more i look at the models its makes me want to cme down there and chase this etupbut with the lack of a passport i cant.
(I think you need a passport now as of the 1st to drive into the USA for Canada
Well now I now why I had Nightmares last Night about Tornadoes. Again.
I do not understand a whole Lot about the Weather but everyone else here seems to be on the lookout so I better be too.
And I thought I did not have to worry about anything over the Winter.Big Joke. Like they say if you dont like the Weather in MO wait five minutes and it will change.
Everyone out there going after this be safe.
Matt, I heard that the passport thing was bumped back another year. For driving only... It is needed for flying.
As far as the GFS is concerned, I just don't see it. I think its too far away to be accurate. Sorry if that is offensive to anyone.
Update from my last post:
I hope I am wrong.
Wouhou ! We beat the 1984 record of amount of snow ! 150 cm (approx. 60 inches) since the beginning of december!
Holy cow Caro!! That's a lot!! Word on the street is this was the 6th snowiest December on record here! Not too shabby I must say! Boy I hope it doesn't warm up too much here!! The snowmobile trails are starting to get kinda beat up and that kind of a warm up will kill em for a while! I guess I have to just wait n see!!
How cool Caro! See already seeing extremes, and 2008 has just begun! AAAAAA!
Models are begining to show differences, in the exact track of the storm..... Here we go agian..
Amazing video Caro!
So far we only got light snow accumulations, but I'm sure that the snow will visit me soon ;-) .
I have tons of money and tons of time (retired) but never seen a tornado and would pay to do so. What is the going rate nowadays
Danny,
I know Reed will be heading up a series of tours this spring/summer. I am not sure if any information has been posted anywhere yet, but I would expect to see a link to it on the TV.net website in the near future. If I am not mistaken, the cost will be somewhere around $2000 for a 6-day trip and $2900 for a 10-day trip, not including travel expenses for you to get down to OK. Of course, I am not affiliated at all with tv.net so I can't say that the above information is completely accurate, but I believe it will be pretty close.
As I am sure you have seen Reed's videos on TV.net and everywhere else on the web and broadcast TV, you would probably agree that you will not get much more excitement than going on one of his tours. You can bet I will be going assuming I can round up enough cash and if I don't go this year, I will definitely be saving up for next year.
I really do not have too many details other than some info I have gotten from Reed via email, but if you are interested, I would send him an email and ask for more details. He has always been very responsive and cordial every time I have contacted him. Best of luck!!