News DetailSevere weather likely across Central/Northern Plains late this evening
Posted At: September 29, 2007 @ 12:35 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
Based on recent model data, it appears that the best upper dynamics will not eject over the instability axis until very late afternoon or evening, and initiation during daylight hours is a huge uncertainty...especially over the Dakotas and western MN. Instability will be slightly higher than previously forecast, with CAPE values of 2000+ J/kg from the Dakotas southwestward to northeast CO. Based on the WRF and RUC models, the best chance for supercells during daylight will be across northeast CO and western NE. RUC forecast loops for CAPE, 850 mb, and precip are displayed below:
The SPC has issued a large 5% area for tornadoes in their Day 1 Outlook, but this is likely for supercells near and after sunset. Stay tuned for udpates as this severe weather event unfolds. Good luck to all who are chasing today!
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Yeah I hope there are at least 3 tornado wait i wanna prodidct that is how many I hope i'me right
1st MSD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF UT/CO/WY. STRONGER CELLS IN THIS REGION WILL POSE A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NV...AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO
WY/CO. LATEST AZC PROFILER DATA SHOWS WINDS OF 80+ KNOTS AS LOW AS
6KM AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG HEATING FROM SOUTHWEST UT INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL WY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
60S. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RESULTING IN MARGINAL MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. STRONG DRYING WILL
OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF DRYING FROM
WESTERN CO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
ALLOW DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MID LEVEL MOMENTUM...LEADING TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CELLS.
Hey Caleb!
Hi zack i wanna prodidct that is how many I hope i'me right 3 tornadoes
I hope there is 5,0000,0000 tornadoes!!!
Just kidding lol.
LOL thats waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy more than the 1974 super out brake
My YouTube with some Tornado Videos http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=jptornado
I say we will get 1-3 Tornadoes nothing major.
Tornado Outbreak Possible based on D4 on 4-8Day Outlook
October 2nd Outbreak near Major Cities in Midwest.
Fall Tornado Season Starts
LOL zack there has already been a tornado
POSSIBLE TORNADO. MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND RAILING ON BALCONIES OF SEVERAL HOMES WITH PATIO FURNITURE AND DEBRIS THROWN INTO STREETS. POSSIBLY ASSOCIATE WITH A WATER SPOUT
Reed it is looking good tomarow for your area... or at least DR. greg forbs says so.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif
This post is intense with the loops! What did I start??
hello, I am wondering if we will get anything in Souther manitoba in the winnipeg area. Environment canada does not mention anything about tstorms even though the SPC has its slight risk zone spreading into our region.
What do y'all think?
@ djonur
Accuweather says: Yes
EC Says: No
Unqualified Me Says: If we do it'll be after dark which means crappy chasing anyway.
I dont agree with SPC's 2000Z Outlook,
I just looked at the meso analasis and Dewpoint recovery is well underway, South Dakota is between 61-64 now, Temps 85,
Effective sheer is about 45 knots with Brn 70-100.
LFC (I dont know much about this part) is 2400-2200.
Yeah Caleb... Your right things are looking good for oklahoma tomorrow... Although I do not foresee any tornadoes happening. Severe weather also looks quite limited. I don't know, maybe things will change. We'll see..
P.S. Reed lives in Norman Oklahoma.. I live in south oklahoma city in oklahoma!
hey guys anything going on....
hey zack and caleb!
Hey Tim!! I Denied your friend request by mistake!! I am an idiot!! Please Accept mine!! Soory bout that!! hehe
Hey guys!! How's the weekend going so far?
Wow, it's windy out here! My little anemometer is going crazy! Steady winds at 35 mph, with gusts up to 45.
It was awful hard playing paintball in 35 mph winds today... ;)
OU just lost to CU! The college football season is over.
LFC NOW AT 2000 IN SOUTH DAKOTA -
I dont know what SPC was thinking, only problem will be getting the storms going, if they do that, and stay discrete, or a MCV, TORNADO
And THAT is why I don't watch a lot of OU football gentleman. lol
Poor OU fans. :'( I wanted to see them vs. USC for the BCS championship. WVU lost too, though, so maybe there's still a chance for OU ... unless, well, nevermind. I just wanted all you guys to believe OU still has a chance. :(
K-State is gonna whup Texas anyway (in progress) so that might be some consolation ... right??
Ouch! Sorry to hear that Reed. I was sorta becoming an OU fan by osmosis from all you guys.
Well, Joe and Heidi, my mom works for K-State, therefore I am biased in football opinions. lol
There's an active storm chaser just West of Eagle River WI, He's in perfect position to get soaked!! hehe
hey manitoba looks good i cant wait
This stinks
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif
Caleb, my self-esteem just dropped into the negatives because of that. ;)
SPC are wrong about that 20Z I think. The vaules (Espucally in North Central South dakota) are looking very good, all the stuff coming together in 1 spot.
lol hey guys sos was away got a friend round soo...
lol its ok brady i will do thanks :)
OWNED!! Interception!!
34-21 K-State.
Don't worrey AJ the values are over (30z)
-200 CIN in north-central SD right now...although there is a lot of convergence along the front right now...200 CIN will be tough to break, and we're past peak heating. I think the SPC was right-on with their outlook...convective initiation being the main question, as well the late timing of the good upper dynamics. Maybe there will be some nocturnal action.
Aahh... well, I'm still a little depressed. The game is cheering me up though ;)
Hey AJ you need a faster site, try this one:
http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/scoreboard
Well, I'm watching it, typing on here, and talking to friends at the same time. Forgive thee if I am slow. lol
Just wanted ya to get your good news! Wow, huge upsets. OU was favored by 23.5 and Texas was favored by 15. They have to be p-o'd now. Maybe there'll be a sideline-clearing brawl Saturday.
It sounds like it's going to be a bust tonight on the weather scene. Rats
shame joe.... do you get any svr weather through the winter where you are then?
Joe, thanks to your posted site, it is now 41-21 Wildcats. Looks like Texas will let the time run out on this one...
Yes, rats.
Gents, I shall return. Be right back, gotta go get the pizza! ;)
see ya AJ!
Just want to point out a new feature which will be implemented tomorrow:
http://www.weather.gov/sbwarnings
Good night everyone!
Sorry, not tomorrow. The day after tomorrow :P (in my timezone it is already Sunday).
Not so much, Tim. Where I live (Seattle) our severe storms are usually in the form of windstorms or heavy rain. Last November, the storm that gave us record rainfall and killed two people here was also the same storm that swept across the country and spawned 20 tornadoes and killed 8 in North Carolina! (click name). I'm sure Reed remembers it.
Volker, They put that into effect 2 days ago, aroudn 4 PM CST, At least for the county maps, it has the warning path only now.
first Svr T'storm watch
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0694_radar_big.gif
ah right well at least you get something then....
wow thats horrible .... 20 tornadoes from the same storm.... seems alot really
Sorry, I probably should have said same storm "system." The tornadoes were spread out across the South, I think.
ah right ok then... till that is still alot and gorrible about the people it killed
Tim I dont think that is true
what is true caleb??
Then the next month, in December 2006, we had this ^^^
Read it. It was bad news.
wow that really is bad....terrible....
security code aswell is 911
that was worse than the 1993 superstorm...
right guys im off now will speak to ya all tomorrow have a good one see ya!
see ya tim
Yep Caleb, I remember the 1993 storm too. It was in January. Where I lived we were without power for 4 days.
Yeah and in FL, there were tornadoes
+++--+
¦+¦¦¦++
+-----+
Yeah!! looks like a bust alright!! At least I find this out before I took off!! I'm crossing my fingers for Tuesday!!
Hey Reed,
Did you see the latest run of the GFS? It is showing next Saturday a nice low and trough along with good moisture and instability in W Oklahoma. Maybe another Oct 9 2001 or something. All I know is it got my attention! I sure hope its right.
As for Tuesday the WRF was showing a low directly over my house with good SE winds and decent instability, but CRAZY tds exceeding 70F I think they may be overduing those quite a bit.
Anyway happy to see things starting to change.
The mic on my cam is way too sensitive!! hehe
I know I'm gonna sound like Kenny, but I'm Bored!! ll
Better cored than bored, right? :-)
Well I'm off for the evening. Good luck to the nocturnal action watchers!
Y'all watching the USC-Washington game (you especially, Joe!)?? I can think of nothing better for OU than if USC loses too...
David, I might be wrong, but I think that there were some areas that started doing the path-based warnings even before 2 days ago. Whatever the case, Volker was obviously referring to what the NWS has in their official announcement: "... The NWS currently issues and disseminates warnings for tornado, severe thunderstorm, flood and marine hazards using geopolitical boundaries. Realizing the continuing need to improve the specificity and accuracy of warnings for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, floods and marine hazards, the NWS will implement Storm-Based Warnings on October 1, 2007."
Reed, What are your thoughts about the current situation?
Have a good nite Joe!! We'll catchya on the flip!! hehe
Maybe someone's already posted this, but it gave me a jolt tonight to see the new storm-based warnings being used in Nebraska/South Dakota.
I like it. Looks like it could be a nice new tool.
Bet that means we'll hear more Hwy mile markers reported with storms!!
That's also good news for us here in St.Louis co.!! This Co. is HUGE!!
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN KEYA PAHA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SPRINGVIEW...
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT.
* AT 907 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 12 MILES WEST OF
SPRINGVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGVIEW BY 920 PM CDT...
HERE WE GO...tornado on the ground
Tornado Warning!! NE!!!!
good hook also...
LOL beat ya to it man...
storms south of us finally popping up
i have link to woodlands
Yeah ya did!! Damn!!! hehe jk!! Looks good on GR3!!
I smell an MCS for us tomorrow!!
could someone please tell me why MB had a 30% chance of storms last night, and today SPC says 0%?
We'll see what the SPCsay in a bit here!! I'm hoping D4 gets crazy!! hehe!!
any chance for wininpeg seeing a storm?
Hey guys...severestudios.com has theyre live chase cam up..they just moved out...theyre on a storm about 10 miles from theyre house...cam working very good for being a nite...and what possibly is a funnel trying to form...get there now
Could someone please talk about MB, and why as stated above, nothing happened.
I see them in MT Vernon!! Look at that sign in the wind!!
I hope these storms don't peter out too much in the next few hours!!
The nerds at the SPC are being tardy!! I was hoping for action today too!! I'm still on standby here in Duluth just in case this stuff in the Dakotas can stay strong!!
For the last week the NWS has been saying 70'f for today!! it's now warmer than it's been all day at 62f!!
FYI MB'ers
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NDC067-300500-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0183.070930T0358Z-070930T0500Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1058 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL PEMBINA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
* AT 1058 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE STORM
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF BATHGATE...OR 32 MILES NORTH OF
GRAFTON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PEMBINA AT 1115 PM CDT...
REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.
LAT...LON 4899 9752 4899 9725 4888 9722 4876 9758
4892 9772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 236DEG 42KT 4889 9752
$$
SPEICHER
Approaching Emerson
Good catch there Sk. I was expecting some stuff around midnight to roll in here if we got anything.. I didn't even catch that.. it's like a single county on the national map and right on the line haha
Someone asked why we didn't have anything happen today.. I think there was a pretty strong cap.. but more importantly we had (and are still having) wind gusting upwards of 70km/h which was blowing the tops off of TCUs earlier.
Why didn't EC issue a svr tstrm warning on that cell around emerson? NWS did, and said they only ended their warning because it moved out of their region
Not sure either sk. Might get a watch or a warning up for Steinbach area next few mins though
Correction.. looks like it's dissapating. Cloud tops have dropped 20k feet in 10 minutes haha.. probably why they didn't issue
The Sotrm in SD looks like it's losing strenght as it crosses into Minny!!
Hard to tell if cell is strengthening or weakening, appearing to be staying the same/strengthening. If so there should be a warning for small/medium size hail.
Where did you find out it dropped 20k in 10 min.
Posted By Brady MN | September 29, 2007 @ 7:32 PM #
The mic on my cam is way too sensitive!! hehe
I know I'm gonna sound like Kenny, but I'm Bored!! ll
Hey Brady!!!!! Shush ;( I don't sound that chipmunky weirdish...
You can see right on GR3 that its top decreased... I've noticed when cells do that it's usually over soon!!
Yeah, It does look like it's kinda blowing up on the SD, MN border!! It might fire back up!! I still say MCS by morning!! =(
Checked the echo top on it (was red when I first saw it) and it dropped down to light purple (20k foot loss in height). I use the Nav Canada static images. It's still dropping down
I didn't mean sound like you with the redneck Swedish accent!! I meant by being bored!! lol Sorry if I offended you!! Hehe
Fresh Warning!! Brookings SD!! Maybe it will pick up!!
Oh....Alright. Well then It's ok! Also I do NOT have a rednecck swedish accent. I have a canadian one. I say roof instead of ruff, comprendez? lol, well anyway whatcha up to Brady.
Hehe!! I think I know whatchur talkin aboot!! hehe
There is a lotta swedes and Nors here!! ya !!
I'm just sitting here watching the radar hoping this crap aiming at me can build up!! I'm not holding my breath!!
Well I'm off for tonight. Tired, way to tired today...Maybe tomorrow or tonight I'll make a video of how boring it is here in Edmonton.
I think southern mb is done for tonight/possibly the season. But think of what we have to look forward to snowsqualls, winter storms, blizzards, -45 C windchills
That cell south of Steinbach just won't give up.
let's see if Minny get her first Warning here in a few minutes!!
I think the MN border is filtering the storms out!! =(
I'm gonna take another lil nap here and see whats up in a bit!!
sup fellas. wots all the fuzzzzzz bout? I c naithing. yai. bizzy fixin da shizzle or sheezy mah neezy. keeep it fresh! peace. (pardonnez mon francais) ps: immer grade house 8)
hey guys up now....
anything expected today then??
they re all dead a sleeep tim.... ;)
thought so cors lol... what time is it in amsterdam then....sameme as here??
hey reed sy to hear bout OU. reminds me of 1998 fifa world cup, I was in ny state watching surrounded by brazilian students. arghhh
lol @ tim. how old are you anyways....
im 15...... how old are you cors?
I'm 28. I was in London last month and I have to say OMG! you ever been to London cause its awesome Brits rock! ;) click name for a beautifull nature video. :P mwahaha (need air) hehe ps: I think its one hour later over here ;)
ah right so not that far behind then...
lol i used to live in london lol
glad you thought it was good nice to see people enjoying our country lol
im in amsterdam soon anyway bout 3 weeks now....
anyway sos cors but got toe a good one see ya!!
haaaaaaahahhaha no f way! yo tim wot u going to amsterdam for? if ya like I got chat on http://insaneweather.com/
Can anyone say "Positive day 3 outlook"?
Is the TV.net vehicle tuned up? It's been so long since a video it seems like you guys are semi-retired! You might not have to drive far on Tuesday.
Looking forward to an update.
hey guys im back lol....
cors im may be going to amsterdam i aint sure yet for a school trip lol
Cors you're back!!! great to hear from you.
Andrew: we'll definitely be chasing when the chances look promising...as it does next week! The problem this summer and fall is I have to work on my research and dissertation because I'm set to graduate this spring, and I need to make up for lost time since I was storm chasing non-stop during the spring. Once my dissertation is done, I'm storm chasing every event full-time!
hey reed....
thanks for the bklog you did on the outbrke here and thank you for using my video lol...
I'm up now too. Tuesday does look really good for the western part of OK up to minny. I hope TV.net chases that day! Anyway whos up for a video of how boring it is in edmonton?
hey kenny
lol sounds fun :P
Hey guys hows it going today?????
I'll make my video of boringness when it gets a bit warmer it's too cold out right now.
lmao cant wait lol
Im going to film some winter weather this year just not from the side of the road because it end up getting stuck there.
Hey guys!! (yawn) How is every lil thing?? Looks like ol D4 ( now three day) wants to move away from me too! =(
Hey Reed!! Don't sweat the lack of chasing!! I Think with technology on the rise like it is. Storm chasing is gonna become Huge!! Just as much so TV.net!! I'm just saying Finish what you've been busting your ass on!! It's gonna pay off!! Next year we're all gonna kick some ass!! hehe
hey brady....hows your day going then??