News DetailSevere weather outbreak possible this weekend!
Posted At: September 26, 2007 @ 10:37 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The GFS is forecasting a strong trough to plow into the Central/Southern Plains this weekend, bringing the possibility for severe weather from OK to SD on Saturday. If the current GFS run verifies, a severe weather outbreak would be likely on Saturday, given the strong shear and ample instability over a large region. If this occurs, we will DEFINITELY be chasing this event!
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Woo, finally some possible generally local chasing weather for ya guys. Well good luck
Ya if you guys go good luck and end the 94 day without a tornado video streak. By Saturday it will be 97 days.
I was just looking at the SPC outlooks and seen that also.
Awesome on how u provide us with a little more insight, will the model images.
And i agree, Got to get one last chase in this year! We need new footage, even if its just a wind/hail event, i know you fascinated with large hail.
BTW i hope this doesnt get me banned again, but i am Ben/Bennnnn. and you may know that already. 3361
Reed if the weather does get severe I will be out chasing also as the wife allows :) I will watch for you if were are in the same area. Hope it does storm as it's been quit boring lately.
This is in reponse to a post from Brady. I was waiting for the the storm to come i had the batteries in the camera all set to go. And i think about midnight i passed out on the couch. After i left here i start enjoying some more alcoholic beverages so ya even if i made the video would not have been that good.
Tom- if you see this what time did the storm hit Beeton. I wana know how much time i missed it by.
So am i reading that right by thinking that southern MN could get some severe weather also?
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
I went back in the previous blog and Tom lost his power at 12:15EST. And shortly after that it started raining. I MISSED IT BY 15 MINUTES. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Sorry to hear that, Matt. (Although it's kinda funny, too.)
From my windows, all I could see was the occasional bright flash. There is no evidence of any significant wind around my place.
Now I have to stop reading about supercells, bow echoes and cyclonic rotation and get back to work! Sigh.
Ya i gotta go to work today to. I think my tornado chances this year are over. But winter is just around this corner in about a month and a bit.
Say, Matt, this is probably a stupid question, but have you spotted tornadoes in this area, or do you have to travel far to see them?
I remember a few in Southern Ontario last year. Were there any this year? If you have to travel, where do you usually go?
Thanks for any help!
hey guys.....anything going on....
cool hope ya get something over the weekend then reed!
I need to go check out the models for a couple of days beyond this timeframe. It'd be great if we could extend all of that by a few days and, accordingly, bring it a few hundred miles east, don't ya think? ;) Something has to give sometime. This has been one of the least-severe seasons ever for me here.
Right now I have a little bit of thunder happening, but it amounts to nothing other than scaring the dog. :( And I have no "chase vehicle" right now, so I really can't even try to get some semi-interesting photos... BUT, it's a Wal-Mart day - heeeew boy. Hafta get me some Vienna sausages and beanie weenies, if they ain't out. Maybe there'll be a sale on family-pack pork jowels today too, if I'm really lucky.
:D
Well I did just go and check the GFS winds at various levels for 144 hrs+ and I am not happy.
This is the first solid set up I've seen since school started. Hooty hoo.
Dogs don't like thunder too much do they, Heidi. By the way, yall have funny looking doggies in Arkansas if you don't mind me saying.
Excellent Reed! Better this Saturday better than next Saturday when you have to catch the big Texas/OU game.
Brady if you un-check the right-hand boxes in your placefile manager the icons and city names will appear on top of the radar data instead of underneath it.
Reed, just out of curiosity, how long did it take for you to drive to Manitoba?
I guess what I'm really asking is how long would it take me to get down to an area close to where this might happen. Ballpark estimate?
Got kicked of the bus.... STORMS COMING MY WAY!!!
When does it become too late in the season for tornados? Check out this photo of a tornado that struck Bismarck, North Dakota, on Nov. 1, 2000.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bis/images/nov1_sheriff1.jpg
What do you think after that that? Anything through the Ohio or Mississippi Valleys?
Nice in Ohio now with storms building South and North of me.
PCM It is never too late to see a tornado thay happen year around
Good Luck!
nice picture PCM....
Yeah, good picture.
Hey everyone! What's going on out there? Caleb got kicked off the bus? Cool. haha
hey AJ....Not alot really no-one is talking really lol but i guess it is only 4 there so....
how was your day then??
Hey there Tim. Eh... just a normal Wednesday in the States. How's merry England? It's about 75 degrees and sunny, a few clouds in the sky... good evening for grilling on the porch :)
cool sounds as if it has been another good day where you are then lol :D
is freeng here cant wait for summer lol....i know its 45 f here but we have a wind chill factor of - 10 degrees from the north so is very cold lol......
laskjhfldshfl. lol You're kidding right?! Wow. That cold a wind chill, and I'm giving up on going anywhere. haha
lol stay where you are lol.....
hey btw i could be over there within the next 2 years or hopefully next summer if im lucky for a few weeks....and then i may be going to university in the states aswell lol :D
if someone would plz answer his Question does any one think it will hit ND to
Cool. There's plenty of fine establishments across the US for you to choose from Tim. Might I recommend Oklahoma University, or even Kansas State. ;)
What are you referring to Tanner?
well i live in ND and i just wanna now if there is going to be any chance of severe storms
yeh AJ im looking at OK really as i have eard alot about the weather they get there.....
anyway guys im out got to go to sleep at some point will do an alll nighter on friday lol have a good one see ya!!
I just need that setup to shift a little south and east and I'm right in the path!
AJ I bet you're happy with it the way it is though...
Tim, OU has probably the best meteorology program in the country, which is exacty why I plan to go there. As much as I hate it... I'm a born and raised Longhorn, but I'm willing to make the sacrifice.
HUGE storm heading right into Lubbock as I write this.
You'd be right Connor, I'm happy until it decides to change course. lol Which is all possible.
Tanner, ND is in a 5% area, along with your neighbors to the south and east. Storms are a possibility, but not highly likely.
I see that storm in Texas... wonder what it looks like on GR3... ?
There is a pretty incredible book-end vortex on the Buffalo, NY radar right now (I think that's what you call it). The velocity scan is quite impressive and there is a tornado warning.
Cool stuff Andrew. You have just peaked my interest in the radar. ;)
Ah hah! ^^^ I knew there was something there. lol And I think "book end" is the right term... I've heard it before... oh well. It's cool. hehe
That looks just like the scan from NW of Duluth the other day... somewhat of a bow-echo with a tornado-warned bookend meso on the left-hand side
Hmm... coincidence Joe? I have no clue. Is there a pic from the radar scan of the Duluth storm I can see? Sounds like an interesting comparison.
hey were do u get all this info at
Tanner, I like to use wunderground.com for nationwide radar and such. Click my name and it'll take you to the site. I think regular visitors of TV.net have some form of cool weather gadget, but they cost quite a bit of money sometimes.
Be back later all... Peace!
AJ,
Duluth 9/24:
http://i20.tinypic.com/k1yil2.jpg
(it was actually much stronger just 15 minutes prior to that, with much more of a curlicue in the meso)
Buffalo 9/26:
http://i22.tinypic.com/ab7k1.jpg
hey thnx i usually used weather.com and it didnt really help so ill try wunderground for awhile hey do u know when there going to update the site id like to learn more about storms
Hey Guys! I just got home from work!! what have I missed?? Looks like storms coming my way!!!
Everything's passing 300 miles south of me. :-(
Guess who doesn't work this weekend??? That's right!! Me!! hehe Maybe I can round up some more gas $$
There it goes. Buffalo gets all the good weather. :)
Looks like you might get a few sprinkles in a while Brady, unless Gitche Gumee sucks it down like a raw oyster before it gets there.
We still need all the rain we can get!! Yeah that would seem to fit the pattern!! Gitche Gumee is where he storms go to die!! hehe
Ooh!! We got a tornado in Madison NY and a severe thunderstorm warning just north of Jim!! ( New Ulm)!!
Tom are you new here? if you are i'll give you an intro of Tornadovideos.net
Caleb, yep, I'm new. I've been lurking on this website for about 6 months, but didn't chime in until about a week ago.
I'm not a storm chaser ... just a wannabee.
And sure, I'd love an intro of tornadovideos.net!
OH ok Well i'me Caleb Routt i'me 10 years old and this is tornadovideos.net
REED TIMMERS BIO
Reed was born and raised in Grand Rapids, MI, and became interested in extreme weather at a very young age. He was also an avid insect, reptile, and amphibian collector and tree identification enthusiast, but decided to pursue his greatest passion and began studying meteorology at the University of Oklahoma in 1998. Reed photographed his first tornado in October 1998, and was addicted to extreme storm chasing ever since. Every spring and summer season, he travels from the Mexican Border to Canada striving to photograph tornadoes from extreme close range (within 1/8 mile), often driving more than 40,000 miles during the spring and summer. His infamous reputation was achieved when he videotaped an F5 tornado from underneath an overpass on May 3, 1999 while it was bearing down on his location. Reed has more recently become interested in hurricane chasing as well, and documented Hurricane Katrina from "ground zero" in the fall 2005 with Simon Brewer (Stormgasm), lost Simon's car to a 20 foot storm surge, and had to hitch-hike back to Oklahoma. Notable tornado intercepts include the May 3, 1999 F5 tornado in Moore, OK; the Manchester, SD wedge on June 24, 2003; the May 4, 2003 tornado outbreak in southeast KS; and sustaining a direct hit from an F0 tornado in southern Minnesota. Reed has made several television appearances to share his storm chasing escapades, including CNN with Wolf Blitzer and Paula Zahn, Good Morning America with Dianne Sawyer, the Leeza Gibbons Show, Real TV, and World's Most Amazing Videos. Reed graduated with a Bachelors Degree in meteorology in 2002, Masters in 2005, and is currently working towards his PhD in meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. His research interests lie mainly in the field of applied climatology, focusing on energy consumption/temperature connections, and minimizing weather-related risk in the agribusiness sector. Additional interests include oboe performance, weight-lifting, basketball, golf, and hockey. Reed will chase storms until the day he dies!
JOEL TYLOR'S BIO
Joel was raised in the heart of tornado alley, Elk City, Oklahoma. Joel witnessed numerous severe storms and several tornadoes in his early childhood years which helped to feed his interests in extreme weather. He even began producing weather "forecasts" as early as the first grade. In 1998 Joel moved to Norman, Oklahoma, to study meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. While there, his fascination with storms and stormchasing only grew. In 2001 Joel was selected to be on a special episode of Atmospheres (aired on The Weather Channel), in which he explored the various climates of Hawaii alongside Jim Cantore and Mish Michaels. Some of Joel's most notable intercepts include the May 3rd, 1999, F5 Moore, OK twister; the October 9th, 2001 F3 tornado that narrowly missed his hometown of Elk City, OK; and the May 27th, 2001, White Deer, TX tornado. In May 8, 2003 in northern Kansas, Joel was driving his Ford Explorer down a water-covered highway and began hydroplaning at 80 mph. With 5 stormchasers in the vehicle, his car fish-tailed violently and then spun 720 degrees at 80 mph, and Joel safely stabilized the spin without slowing down. Joel has also participated in two hurricane chases, including Hurricane Frances that came into Florida in 2004 and Hurricane Rita which ravaged much of the Louisiana and Texas coasts in 2005. After graduating with his degree in Meteorology in 2002, Joel started a career in Real Estate. He now owns and operates two successful Real Estate companies in the Oklahoma City/Norman area, and is continuing to look for ways to expand his businesses. Being his own boss, Joel is able to schedule most of his work around his stormchase interests, giving him opportunities that he would not have with a normal job. Joel also enjoys basketball, weightlifting, long distance running, and attending OU football and basketball games.
JASON FILL'S BIO
Jason is from Grand Rapids, MI, but currently resides in Birmingham, Alabama. He is really not into extreme weather but enjoys seeing the images and video the team is able to capture. Jason develops all the systems that the TV.net team uses which mainly include the web site and the GPS tracking software that the team uses when in the field. Jason and Reed actually went to school together until they graduated high school, at which point they did not speak for several years. They reconnected in early 2006 to stand the TV.net site up to what it is today and together have some big plans for enhancements in the coming months.
Heh. Thanks for the info, Caleb, though I must admit I did read through that link.
You're ten? Cool! Good to get interested in things young.
I'm probably older than your parents. :-) I'm 40, married, with two kids (9 year old daughter and 7 year old son).
If I ever wanted to start storm chasing, I'll have to do a _LOT_ of convincing first. We drove down to Texas (and back to Southern Ontario) this summer, and I really hoped we'd see a tornado, but no luck.
I'm glad to meet you, Caleb. Thanks for your introduction, and stay safe!
Ok, I gotta go offline for a bit. (Homework. 40 years old and still doing homework!)
TTYL.
Have fun Tom!! Sure got quiet when I got here!! =(
Has anyone talked to Brady about his B.O. problem yet? j/k
=( hehe Speaking of that, I do gots to go take a shower in a min!! hehe
There is MAJOR flooding occurring in Jonesboro, AR right now (and has been for a few hours). The city is turning off utilities to certain sections of town, and there's an emergancy broadcast message scrolling across the bottom of the TV screen advising people to stay home (read: DON'T GO OUT!). They've received 3-5" of rain in the last couple of hours.
For all you radar watchers there is a pretty intense velocity couplet just southwest of Utica, New York and it has been there for a while.
I was noticing that Andrew!! Looks great!!
Reed I hope this pans out and you have one last chance at some storms. Since the hurricane season is a complete dud, a good thing for your well being and the coastal states. You need some storms before winter. All is calm and a very pretty, warm autumn in MI. Maybe the calm before the snowstorms? Jim pays 7000.00 per year in hurricane insurance and wants your opinion on whether or not he should cancel-he found out his elevation is 16 feet above sea level so storm surge is not an issue.
LOL tom my dad is 41 and my mom is 38
Anyone notice that the tornado-warned cell in NY is rotating clockwise?
Hi smt! :)
How do you determine the rotation Heidi?
Hi Heidi - I really enjoy your sense of Arkansas humor! Away from weather for a moment - I showed a video to my kids in school on gems and there was a segment on Arkansas diamonds that can be mined in a state park by visitors? Is this the real thing? If so, I would certainly consider a road trip with Reed's sister - she loves rock hunting as much as Reed loves weather.
It does appear to be spinning clockwise!! Wow!! Good eye Heidi!!
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 915 PM EDT
* AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR AUGUSTA...
OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ONEIDA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CLINTON AND CLARK MILLS BY 845 PM EDT...
WATERVILLE BY 850 PM EDT...
NEW HARTFORD BY 855 PM EDT...
CLAYVILLE AND 7 MILES NORTH OF BRIDGEWATER BY 905 PM EDT...
Heidi it's anticyclonic
This lake is a bloody murderer!! =(
Wow i just needed to announce that i went on what i could kinda call my first chase! The storm was siick and it was the most fun thing i have ever done..such a rush..wow but prob no pics cuz i was driving and it was getting dark but..wow
You're so close to the radar it's hard to separate the rainfall from the ground clutter Brady. Have you even had any sprinkles yet?
Joe, I just do the polling thing and watch the motion on CR248. Easy enough. Sometimes it's good enough to do it on the velocity scans, but not always.
smt, yeah, that's Crater of Diamonds St. Park. It's in Pike County, which is in the southwest part of the state. It's not too far off I-30, so it's not like you'd have to be traveling in the back country for too long. I have never been there (but we'll make it there some day, I'm sure - my husband and I are both geology buffs, too) but yes, it's true - you get to go there and find your own diamonds, and keep what you find. I am not sure what the success rate is, but every once in a while there will be something on the news about someone finding a big one.
There was no sale on pork jowels, incedently. But I spotted enough overall-clad folks to make up for it. Oh, and the dog and I just chased the armadillo again, but we let it get away.
There's supposed to be video of the flooding in Jonesboro, so when/if it's up on KAIT's site I will sound the alarm.
Hey everyone, I'm back from youth group! Clear skies tonite, full moon outside... awfully relaxing.
Tom, nice to make your acquantaince. I'm AJ, age 15, and a weather fanatic and also try-to-be chaser. I"m on here often, so glad to have another person on!
Reed's mommy!! What's up? How's it going?
Anticyclonic=awesomeness :D
Just Barely a few drops on th windshield of the truck!! that's it!! hehe
I guess I never use the CR248 long-range radar except for tropical cyclones off the coast and peeking up into the Great White North (spying on the Canadians... don't tell em).
I usually keep my GR3 on four panel with BR and SRV on top and CR248 and tops on bottom!! then I usually switch to single panel when I wanna look better at whatever!! I do a similar thing with the GPS in my boat too!!
Brady, I do the same, except I do BV1 and 2, and SRV 1,2 & 3, plus CR248 and tops.
Hehe!! close enough!! I like Cr248 cuz it has the range to reach the Twin Cities from here which is kinda nice!! And of course... Gotta have them tops!! hehe
Well, at least I know what settings to set my GR3 on. hehe
I think I"ll buy it for next storm season... it might come in handy.
Welp, I'm out for the nite. Talk to ya'll later!
Peace, gnite!
Hey AJ, go to that bulletin that Dick posted on MySpace & send me a message real quick - I can't send you one because of your privacy settings.
Or send me one!! hehe I seen ya on the frappr! hehe^^
Brady I put my dog's picture on your frapper! :D
I'm trying to find it Hedi!!! but it has no love for me!!=(
my internet seem crappy tonite!!
sorry!! Heidi!!
U mean the one with the bike helmet??lol
Lol I remember ya posting that pic a while back!! hehe
Tha's one that ya wanna keep forever!! hehe
Say, has anyone seen Cors around here since Hurricane Dean? Maybe he made the trip and it didn't go so great... :-O
I wuz wondering where Cors has been myself!! And Joel!! and a few others now that I think about it!!
Yeah where has Cors been??
Nice severe storms in western OK tonight. I heard there was hail larger than golf balls out in Roger Mills County...near where Joel is from.
It looks like moisture return is going to be an issue on Saturday. The wind shear looks INCREDIBLE...now we need the moisture!!!
Cors was pretty amped up for the hurricane season, but it's been mighty slim pickings from a chasing standpoint. I bet we'll hear from him again if another monster brews up.
That storm in OK has been putting down a lot of rain, and pumping out rain-cooled gust fronts to the south as it slides along... I like to watch those... earlier in the month there was one coming off Lake Superior and it held the same contour as the shoreline for quite a few miles inland
I sure hope there's a chase Saturday/
Hopefully We'll get the moisture!! We need one more outbreak before the cold!! It seems we've been lacking powerful tornadoes!! nothing really good since Northwood!!
And hopefully something will happen close enough for me to reach!! =)
There's a 4" hail signature in that cell right now
I like the gust fronts too!! I remember watching that one follow the shore!! The storm that came through late July when everyone was Goo Goo over the incredibly high CAPE
made a sweet shelf/ gust front that I thought was gonna produce!! Here's a pic of the inside of that shelf!^^ I'm gonna crash!! I'll cach you all on he flip!! hehe
his was the edge of that front!! Gnite!!
I'm glad you're starting to go to bed at more reasonable hours! Nice pics. G-nite.
Saturday's dewpoints look to be in the 50s... too bad. But hey, in this part of the world the weather can always change!
We'll have plenty of chase opportunities in October and November if this one doesn't pan out...it looks like an active pattern will continue through next week.
That cell has been a nice supercell for while...damn why can't it be 80 miles further north.
Sunday afternoon looks interesting in a few places. Then Tuesday for Florida/SC/NC?
Do you have a winter forecast Reed? Is it time to get the sleds ready yet?
2 am and still doin english homework. Charles Dickens needs to go die... again.
If only that cell would stay strong. Its headed right for me, but a few hours out.
Or at least it was, now it looks like its following the Red River.
I have been trying to connect to grlevelx.com but it appears they may be having web site trouble. Anyone else able to get there. I want to look at GR3 before this weekend just in case :)
21 09 2007 large hail Marbella Spain. I noticed this report a while ago but just lately found some videos of the incident. maximum hail diameter: 10 cm. 30 people injured, one seriously injured by large hailfall.
hey cors.....havent heard from you in while .....how are ya!
Ya hey Cors hows it going over in Amsterdam(hope i spelled that right)???????
nice vid tim, I was looking at that squall line on radar monday. it looked liked it was gonna hit me too but it broke in 2 and went south and north of me so im glad you caught it on video!
hey matt aswell....ow are ya?
lol thanks cors.....yeh was a shame that didn't quite reach you....i misse all the best stuff because of school but was still cool in the morning.....
you would of propbably got more of the action then what we did here....
Im alright Tim. Im mad because tuesday night i had a big thunderstorm and i passed out 15 minutes before it hit me. I had the batteries in the camera all ready to go to and i passed out 15 minutes before it came. Other than that im gettin ready to watch the Presidents Cup. Canadian boy Mike Weir is in it so i have to watch it.
lol i heard thats really unlucky sorry bout that but sure ull get something soon anyway :D.....
presidents cup......whats that lol sorry....
Its a golf event. Its in Canada for the first time this year.
ah cool.....do you like golf then?
Look's like I need to gear up the car one last time for this year. Hopefully Saturday will not be a bust agian.
Jason Young
Oklahoma
Does anyone think a north central Nebraska chase might be possible Saturday? Dewpoints are meager at best, but shear profiles will be amazing and anything that can form ahead and before the cold front pushes through, could be alright. The NAM is showing really nice Helicity values as well. Am I stupid for wanting to go?
I think I want to chase so badly that I'm ignoring the blatant red flags associated with chasing on Saturday.