Posted At: September 17, 2007 @ 12:40 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
A synthesis of recent (early September) satellite imagery from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) instrument has revealed some very interesting information -- the ice cover in the Arctic is at its lowest area since satellite documentation began nearly 30 years ago! In fact, the Northwest Passage (shown in the image below by the blue line), a once impassable sea route between Europe and Asia is now ice free and potentially passable. The story can be found in its entirety using the link below, and the figure showing the ice cover during early September 2007 is shown below, with the dark gray color representing ice free regions and the green color representing ice.
http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEMYTC13J6F_planet_0.htmlAn update on the severe weather potential tomorrow (Monday) will be displayed on the blog tomorrow morning -- the 00z models tonight (Sunday) look very similar to this morning's runs (described in the previous entry).
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This seems to be something to worry about! I personally like to be one of those people who like to pretend global warming is BS!! but... yeah! I've seen the proof! ( Lake Superior record low levels)!! This chit is starting to worry me!
Reed!! Your forecast about the Lions beating the Vikes was pretty good too!! hehe
Please let me know your thoughts on chasing tomorrow!!
Like I said ealier, it would be a shame to miss something good because of lack of gas or in my case experience!! It doesn't take much to make me happy!! even a good light show and I'll consider it success!!
I need to beat my pic from last week!! " The Funnel In Question"!!
Personally I think it's a rain drop on my windshield, but I guess it could win a prize for best funnel look a like! hehe
That's pretty amazing about the Northwest Passage!!
The Arctic being completely ice free by 2040 is real scary!
Hey T-Vids crew!
Just letting you know there's another typhoon cranking up and heading for China. JTWC going for cat 4 smack near Shanghai so I'm sorting my equipment and getting ready to intercept this beast! Reed I'll email you updates on how I get on too!
James
Hey Brady, I hear you about low lake levels on Lake Superior. We spent our vacation up there in Beaver bay and have never seen the water so low.
Have my batteries charged up on my camcorders for this afternoon. Ready and waiting, hopefully it won`t be an after dark event.
You go, James R. :-D
The news about the Northwest Passage being potentially, well, passable must have the shipping industry suits et al jumping for joy. :-/ Then they'll throw a couple of bucks into the Save the Polar Bears fund and will feel all happy, I'm sure.
What a great place to vacation Jim!! I'm worried for the local marina's!! All of the sailboats with the big keels are gonna have problems soon if not already!! =(
I'm still trying to get some gas $$!! for chasing!!
My crappy cam is ready 2 rock!!
Brady: Looks like things are setting up nice for this afternoon. 5% tornado chance is not much, but Northwood was also 5%.
Good luck mang!
I'll be out around southern MB if things look good later.
Brady, when we went up to Grand Marias they have the Isle Royale cruise boat Winona docked there since it can no longer navigate the Grand Portage harbor to get to Isle Royale. They are giving shoreline cruises out Grand Marias with it now instead. Pretty sad when the lakers that run ore down the lake cannot carry fully loaded any more.
My brother has a cabin up at Lax Lake out of Silver Bay and I have cousins all over the place up there. Folks use to have a house in Silver bay back in the 80s. Spent a lot of time up in that area since the early 60s.
Heidi (Armadilla Killa): The northwest passage has been in our news lately for other reasons as well... Mostly political reasons.
Typhoon Wipha is now a 120kt cat 4 monster and due to slam into eastern China in about 30 hours time. I'll be moving into position tomorrow to try and intercept the eye of this beast.
Thanx Strike!! I need all the luck I can get!!
Wow That's cool Jim!! The landscape along the North shore is so amazing!! I usually spend most of my summers fishing and cruising between Duluth and Two Harbors!! I had to sit this year out because of Zebra Muscles clogging up my engine and I did'nt get all of the water out of it! =(
It's gonna look really beautiful up there in the next few weeks when the leaves change color!!
Good luck to you James!! Stay safe!! Hope you can get lots of good footage!!
Thanks a lot Brady. I will!
Well its a busy day at the office.. But I am ready to roll if conditions warrant.
Brady if u go out today good luck and say safe. And try not to bring back the mystery funnel.
HEHE!! ^^^ I'll try not too Matt!! hehe
Hopefully something will happen! Who knows!!
Hey Brady...the RUC mixes out the dewpoints really bad in MN south of the warm front, so the CAPE is very minimal and it has a strong cap. While the shear is really good, I'd say chances for surface-based initiation south of the warm front, or anywhere for that matter, are really small. The best bet for storms is along and north of the warm front, from west-central MN northward...and there is a chance you might be able to get a surface-based storm along the warm front. Good luck if you decide to chase!!
Good luck getting into position James...that always seems to be the hardest part for us; but from your video it looks like it comes easy for you! I'll be adding a blog entry about Typhoon Wipha later this afternoon/evening. Please keep us updated!
Thanx for the info Reed!! I'll keep ya posted if anything happens!! I personally don't wanna travel too far south anyway!! Hopefully I can get at least a little lightning!!
Here's a sweet cloud pic I just took!! lol^^^
Brady that's hilarious! You should send it to CNN! :-D
Reed could use that for a post entitled "Clear Sky Bust in MN..."
26156 close to my old old old zip code! :D
Hey, here's a link to some stuff about the tornado in Florida yesterday:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20812454/
There are a couple of photos there too. I still need to watch the video.
Hehe!! That's great Heidi!! lol
I had the last four digits of my cell# the other day too!!
hey guys whats up??? anything going on...... i ask that every time i come on lol :P
Hey Tim!! Nothing good here yet!! Hopefully later!!
How are things in the life of Tim Jacobs??
ah you haven't had anything over your area then yet brady lol
lol yeh there good thanks :D
how bout you then?
Things are good here!! I'm kinda worried... We have heard from Joe in a while!! Hopefully he's just out camping or something like that!!
No storms yet! It's getting warmer, 66f now!! Still overcast!! kinda humid too!!
lol im sure hes ok brady don't think he could stay away for too long lol......
i wish you could see what i could see brady the storm heading my way looks fantastic i think i may go chase it lol :P will be back on bout 3 speak to ya later
Good luck Tim!! Stay safe!! Bring us back some goodies!! hehe
Joe's probably sitting in a tent somewhere in the cascades shaking like a crack addict muttering to his buddy's " I need to blog, I need to blog!!" JK
Geez, just went to Mankato and back and is it ever heating up outside. My van outside temp said it was 94. Get home and check my temp here it says 93 dewpoint 74. Prime conditions for something to happen. Strong south winds to go with it.
Yea im at college in mankato and i barely ever actually post on here but i have like one class today and im just waiting for something to happen! Right now it looks like its looping right around here..its blues skies almost. I guess after dark we'll have a better chance but thats no fun:-(
hey im back.....wasn't really worth it if im honest i got one good picture which if im honest wasn't very stormy looking lol ( if that is a word ) :(
Can't win em all Tim!! Better luck next time!!
Wow!! It's only 63f Here in Duluth!! Let's hope this happens!!
lol ill get something one day lol....
how is it looking there then brady....anything yet??
Just got off the bus and checked the SPC and it says 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of hail and 30% chance of wind.... REED GO CHASEING WHILE U CAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'd say a few hours out still Tim!! I'm watching KDLH on my desktop, and KMXP on my laptop!! I'm starting to see a lotta blue!! Nothing impressive yet!!
Caleb... If I have to jack a car at gun point to chase I will!! hehe JK 999 hehe
well lets hope you get something and get some pics lol :P
your that desperate then lol
I wish I had another event like on may 30 2004.
Brady,
latest from SPC:
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
NOT UNTIL CLOSE TO EVENING AND SHEAR/LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BOTH IN LOCATION AND COVERAGE.
AFTER 00Z SHEAR DOES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS UPPER MS
VALLEY...HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND CINH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
Good now when is the stuff gonna start LOL
LOL, Andrew....you read my mind...yes...from the looks at what SPC is saying...as the day goes on the severe threat is getting less and less....not even tornadoes mentioned at all in that latest outlook...doesnt look too good...i was hoping to get one more good outbreak...or even just a couple really good storms rolling...
Brady in my opinion it's not worth wasting a tank of gas on. Some good stuff may happen but it might not be until after dark and even the SPC sounds pretty uncertain as to WHERE it might happen.
Just my opinion.
Caleb, doesnt look too good...if anything...hail and wind threat....and even that doesnt look horribly bad...i think thats why reed sat this one out...he saw this coming...
And yes...i def. wouldnt chase at this point brady...if i were you...unless SPC does an about face
Ya!! This is what I've been thinking!!
We'll see later, but I'm not holding my breath!!
This seems to be the normal pattern around here!!
Besides... I wouldn't know where to start anyway!!
Brady if you were to change your mind I would park in Brainerd and wait. That's kind of a drive for you I know.
not looking to good after all then brady....
im off now guys speak to ya all later see ya !!!!
If I can get more fuel here in a lil bit, Brainerd wouldn't be too far for me!! It's just could I get there in time and would it be worth the drive!!
I'm gonna hold up here!! at least for a bit!! If you think I should deploy... I will!!
Lol!! It's a beautiful sunny ^^^ day here!!
hey guys im back lol.....
lol nice brady could do with that weather here just rain and nothing else at the moment lol
Reed, hate to bug you when you're so busy, but...
Got a quick update for this afternoon/evening for us?
wow quiet today lol anyone there?
I'm here now! Hey everyone! It looks like I'll be in for some action here in just a little bit... I've got storms popping up to my west faster than I can type this. lol
Check it out. Click thy name.
yeah!!! Quiet is right!! I just took a lil nap!!
I am shocked that AJ isn't on here going berserk because he ACTUALLY HAS STORMS firing around his place!
HAHAHAH!!! The exact same thing happened to me the last time I said something about "I'm surprised AJ isn't on here going berserk..." 3 minutes late this time! :D
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA... aslkjdhskfhldsgfldsglds.
lmao. Sorry guys. Heidi made me do it. ;)
Go get em AJ!! Looks better there than here!!!
I haven't spied any rotation yet... :( They're strong enough for some severe warnings, but nothing terribly serious... yet. Always a keen eye on them.
haha. Brady! My red Dakota got traded already! I've moved up in size, to a shortbed Ram 1500 :D And yes, it's red. hehe
I spy with my little eye... a mild gust front. Meh... good thing my "new" pickup is inside tonite. I don't like the thought of trees landing on it yet. ;)
HAHA!!! ataboy!! Nice truck!! Damn I wanna gust front!!
I think my storm chance just went down the well!!
It looks like a good thunder storm formed over Lake Superior between Isle Royale and the U.P.!!!
Isnt it kinda lame how the 5% tornado chance area in MN doesnt even have storms in it yet? I got all excited when i saw that and now theres nothing :(
It will be dark out before anything happens in MN sad to say. Its still 92 here and windy but nothing is coming this way yet. So by time it pops at will be dark out. Oh well, guess I`ll try and get some sleep before the thunder wakes me up.
Did even any rain fall from this blob to my west??
TVS popped up northeast of Scott City, KS. It isn't tornado warned though.
haha. I feel your pain Joe M. And I thought you'd like that Brady ;) Shortbed, regular cab, bright red :D Apparently, the Dakota was flood damaged, and the seller didn't know it, so we told him about it, and he traded straight across!! Ahh, I love democracy... lol
Still some svr warnings with my little line... nothing new really yet.
Oh wow!! I just looked outside and there is a few drops on my Dodge!! HOO HOO! it rained!! =(
haha. Brady, I"m freakin jumping for joy here!! Rain, and lightning, here we come!
Ingridents are coming together a bit better then forcasted in Eastern South Dakota.
Cape 2500 (supposed to be around 1500)
Effective SHeer 45, BRN 60, and only increasing through the evening.
We also have some cells firing in that area.
AJ don't forget to get some film of it! Turns out no storm hit me yesterday..If so I slept right through it...
Kenny, I have sad news: my camera has officially taken a dump, ladies and gentlemen. It no longer works :( I'd have it taken in for warranty work, but I"m lazy and poor. lol It'll be outta commision for awhile, sorry. Maybe some still photos...??
Holy heck, it's pouring!! WOOHOO!!
Sorry bout that AJ. Well if you can get still photos, try it!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAa slhsdhflkdshf lol. I couldn't help it! Horizontal rain... good for me, bad for drivers out in it. We'd call this one a "gulley washer". lol
Still photos of a rain storm... it could work... ;)
Theres still a chance:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1977.html
:-\ i think.. but again it'll prob be after dark
Looks like it might be raining for awhile yet... line of storms is tracking NNE, and fairly slowly at that. They kind of have a "coal train" effect: we'll get hit by one after another until the line dissipates.
Localized flooding might be a problem tonite...
No Update Reed? :(
Also, The Typhoon blew up SIGNIFICANTLY Fast,
Its just below CAT 5 Strength on the scale.
I think it's going to happen soon, and around the Sioux Falls to Pipestone to Marshall area. The first hour could be interesting. Then, of course, it will congeal into a giant line/mcs that will make it's inevitable way toward the twin cities.
Oh well we need rain and lots of it.
Well everyone, I"ll be off for a bit, apparently my surge protector isn't the best, so I don't wanna fry my computer ;) Maybe I'll get some intense torrential rain pics, if my plan works. Keep you updated later!
Catcha all later!!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172303Z - 180030Z
CU FIELD IS SLOWLY DEEPENING/EXPANDING AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM SWRN
MN...SWWD INTO NERN NEB. UNTIL RECENTLY...STRONG CAP HAS SUPPRESSED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT IT NOW APPEARS
INHIBITION IS NEGLIGIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED TO NEAR
90F. ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS THIS REGION IS UNDER NEUTRAL-WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER MS VALLEY SPEED MAX. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS REGION WILL CONVECT IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME
FRAME...BUT THEN EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS WRN KS. 21Z
SOUNDING FROM MPX INDICATES MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DELAYED
INITIATION UNTIL AFTER DARK ALONG WITH STORM MERGERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE.
..DARROW.. 09/17/2007
Its already getting dark here, looks like it will be a noisy night with the look of the forecast. Oh well, won`t be getting any video, more loose some sleep since I can`t sleep when its thundering.
It's starting...
Looks like storms are gonna fire up!!! Hehe
LOL I just watched a movie that tornadoes form when warms air meets cool air. They have studyed that when fast wind aloft and slower winds at the serfes creat a tumbaling motion in the atmasphere. when an updraft of a thunderstorm tilts that motion it streches and suckes in more air. Just like an ice scater pulling his or her armes in. as that keeps spinning that thunderstorm starts to rotate. it becoms a supercell. now it is a Mesocyclone. Supercells don't always have to produce Tornadoes. L andspouts are a non- tornadadic type tornadoes.
It looks like two cells forming!! 1 to my west and one southwest!!
Caleb I just watched Tornado Intercept today and they use that same ice-skater footage. They also have TV.net's Manchester footage "BACK UP!! BACK UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" :-D
I hope you MN guys aren't getting your hopes up for nothing. I hate when I do that!
Hell Yeah!!! Severe T-Sorm Watch!!
That cell near Grand Rapids MINNESOTA looks interesting on the base velocity.
Hey guys, I'm back! Sounds like a cool video Caleb! What's it called, I think I'll want to watch it.
Looks like all my rain is gone. There's several flood warnings out now, and there was 1" hail in Hill City. Not bad for a September storm. ;)
Not to confuse the Grand Rapids's of the world!!! These cells do look interesting!!I'm gonna gas up!! I'll bring the laptop with!!
Brady!! Go get em bro. Bring back something cool to look at. lol
I'm looking at this cell SW of me!! I have a little fuel!!
Hey Andrew!! I think Brainerd is about to get stormed!!
... and the storms look discrete so far... that's probably going to change in an hour or so, but prime time is happening right NOW.
Brady if I were you I wouldn't go too far, let all the stuff come to you. It'll be dark and you'll get some nice lightning.
good grief, check out the storm just west of St. Cloud. Could that thing do it??? It's looking better...
Oohh, it just keeps getting better and better... lol
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA a little screaming for ya Brady. lol
I live in Hermantown!! I'm probably gonna drive down 210 just outta carlton and hold short!!
That thing almost looks like it's gonna split!!!
Hopefully it does split and the right storm comes toward me!! I think this stuff is gonna push a little farther west thatn I can reach!!
Sounds like a busy nite in the Minny ;) I'm gonna be off for awhile, maybe even all nite. Good luck guys, and happy hunting!!
Peace!
i like the looks of the cell thats between brainard and bemidji...i see hints on a 60dbz core...
Bleh, everything just weakened. I guess I'll settle down for now, lol.
I see this Andrew!! It looks like it might start pushing a lil more east pretty soon!! But yeah!! I think it's weakening!!
I'm out the door!! 210 should see some lightning soon!!
Just got back. I'm bored and storms are pretty much over for edmonton till next season...Ahh This sucks.
Anybody here??
Kinda hot in Kansas today. Must be global warming. Unseasonably cool last weekend. Must be global warming.