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Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN

Posted At: September 16, 2007 @ 1:22 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
A broad trough with several embedded shortwaves will build over the Western U.S. by Monday, bringing a chance for severe weather and even tornadoes over northwest IA and southwest MN Monday afternoon/evening.  A 30+ knot low-level jet will develop from OK to MN in response to pressure falls over the northern Great Plains, and a pressure trough/front will move across the eastern Dakotas into a  moderately unstable airmass.  Deep-layer shear and instability will be more than sufficient for supercells over the region shaded in red below, and low-level shear could be favorable for tornadoes.  Selected forecasts from Saturday night's WRF run are displayed below:



 

The SPC has issued a slight risk in their Day 2 outlook for the above region, mentioning the potential for tornadic supercells south of the warm front if the cap can be broken.  Stay tuned for updates!

Entry Comments

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 1:40 AM #

=) My fingers are still crossed!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 1:48 AM #

Of course, gotta have the words STRONG CAP invovled again!! Maybe this will be my chance for a tube?? We'll just have to wait n see!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By andy | September 16, 2007 @ 6:17 AM #

The Rogers MN storm was about this time last year(sad).

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Volker | September 16, 2007 @ 7:53 AM #

Hey Reed, just take a look to the Italian model runs for next week, especially Tuesday looks pretty good. What do you think? It'll be great to hear your opinion on this issue. I'll arrive in Italy (Adriatic coast) on Monday (partly holidays ;-)).

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Volker | September 16, 2007 @ 7:56 AM #

Just want to add that I'll be at and around the town Rimini (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rimini).

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By MynameisBen | September 16, 2007 @ 9:49 AM #

Hey everyones immmm back.

I was wondering what channel you guys on are on JoosTV...i got it downloaded, and installed, im just having a bit of trouble finding the channel/episode i want to watch. And some channels only give me a preview options....Is this joost shit a paid only thing?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Strike | September 16, 2007 @ 10:31 AM #

Brady: Looks like you the bullseye so far!

Maybe with any luck, It will stretch up here to MB

I new winter wasn't here yet.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Strike | September 16, 2007 @ 10:32 AM #

I also knew it wasn't here! HA

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:49 AM #

Now I need to figure out how to gas up the Dodge!! I'm kinda broke again!! I'll get it figured out somehow!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Reed | September 16, 2007 @ 11:02 AM #

Hey Ben...it's all free, but the beta version just recently launched, and there are still some bugs they have to work out. The beta version is invite only, but once the final version launched anyone can sign up. Did you use the invite link I provided on that previous post?

Our channel is called SpaceRip. If you search for tornado you will find the two programs...I think Tornado insanity HD and another one with a similar title.

Good luck Volker! Please keep us updated and it would be great if I could post any of your pictures on the blog. Where do you go for Italian model runs??

Rimini looks amazing.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Volker | September 16, 2007 @ 11:13 AM #

Thank you for your response. If I get anything I'll post a link on it as soon as I return.
I use the following maps/models:
- http://lightningwizard.com/maps
- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
- http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 11:17 AM #

Well I'm bored, edmonton sucks. Ahh I guess I have to wait till next season.....=[

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Matt | September 16, 2007 @ 11:21 AM #

Reed u guys chasing tomorrow or what?????

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 11:29 AM #

Sorry to hear that Kenny!! =( It was so cold here a few days ago I had to let my truck warm up to melt the frost off of the windshield! I'm not ready for the winter either!! But know it looks like I have my best chance yet to catch a storm tomorrow!!=) Hopefully I can get a pic of something that I can confirm this time!!hehe

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Reed | September 16, 2007 @ 11:31 AM #

I don't think so Matt...The new model runs have the front in the central Dakotas and the 850-700 winds backing after 00z. If we lived closer we'd be chasing for sure, but I still have my defense coming up.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 11:31 AM #

Brady if you get something good, I promise I'll get something good on my bike next summer!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 11:41 AM #

I'll do my best!! I just hope I don't have to go very far!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 11:46 AM #

Helmetcam for Kenny!! Cam on a 50ft pole for me!! ( to see over the trees)!! hehe

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By SKgirl | September 16, 2007 @ 12:35 PM #

I'm surprised with this heat here we won't be getting someone building too...
typical Sask. weather: Goes from a span of +5 high and off/on snow on wednesday, to +28 high today...haha

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By caleb | September 16, 2007 @ 1:19 PM #

Reed are you going to be chaseing?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By MynameisBen | September 16, 2007 @ 1:32 PM #

Thanks for the respnse Reed...I found the channel and all, but everytime i try to play any program I get the "this program is unavailabe right now, sorry about this" error #12 message...And yes i did use the invite link.

Anyways, the 30 percent zone for the Severe weather potential on Day2 Outlook expanded a little more in every direction it seems like, Brady you'll have to drive SW/W for the better chances, but its closer it seems like.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By MynameisBen | September 16, 2007 @ 1:34 PM #

Caleb you need to read more, because if you did then you would see that Most likely they are NOT chasing.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By caleb | September 16, 2007 @ 1:41 PM #

why do you think that... they chased the manchester SD, tornado here is the video click my name

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By MynameisBen | September 16, 2007 @ 1:52 PM #

Caleb i know just about everything they chased...i've watched every video off the youtube account. I am saying that Reed already said they are Most likely not chasing! And instead of reading like you should have you just asked, pay more attention is what i was saying.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By caleb | September 16, 2007 @ 1:59 PM #

Oh sorry Ben.... I thought u ment it was to far to chase.
I took a hard tornado quiz..... not very hard for me. got 2 worng.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 2:06 PM #

It looks like I might be heading down Hwy 23 again!hehe
My fuel supply probably won't be as good as the last few runs down there! I would really hate to miss something in the area I've been chasing! @ $2.99 a gallon! I'll have to choose my path wisely!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Heidi | September 16, 2007 @ 2:07 PM #

Hey Reed, are you chasing tomorrow?

;-D

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Heidi | September 16, 2007 @ 2:11 PM #

I just took a major step in the area of future-chase preparation. Oh yeah - I bought the Delorme Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas Topo maps from Amazon! WOO! I also got a second Arkansas, so now I'll have one for inside and one for the vehicle. This is getting SERIOUS! :-D

I'm sending the snake photos.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 2:49 PM #

Hey Reed, are you guys gonna chase tomorrow? JK

The 2day still looks pretty good, but the 3day doesn't look as good as it did earlier!!

Are you gonna be able to be close to your computer to keeps us up to date??

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Heidi | September 16, 2007 @ 2:58 PM #

Hey Caleb, UK 40, Louisville 34. I am impressed!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By caleb | September 16, 2007 @ 3:03 PM #

Heidi How did u know LOL

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Heidi | September 16, 2007 @ 3:14 PM #

Caleb you have done a pretty good job of letting everyone know that you're a UK guy. So I just thought I'd mention it, since UK football hasn't really done something that impressive since Tim Couch was their QB.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By caleb | September 16, 2007 @ 3:31 PM #

Yeah... UK basket ball has their new coach. I forget who he is. they start playing on halloween night!

This is what i'me going to be

click my name

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Heidi | September 16, 2007 @ 3:31 PM #

Thunderstorm watch over the canyon country!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ARIZONA
WESTERN COLORADO
EASTERN UTAH

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VERNAL UTAH TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 19-20Z WITHIN A MOISTURE PLUME FROM NRN
AZ INTO ERN UT/WRN CO. MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT /DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CA/NV/ WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...AND PERHAPS SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By caleb | September 16, 2007 @ 3:50 PM #

Yeah That watch has been around for hours!!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By andy | September 16, 2007 @ 3:58 PM #

If you ever want to experience intense lightning just live in the prescott valley area for a summer. very active.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 4:03 PM #

hey guys .....anything going on and has anything interesting happened over the past few days??
been away so i havent been able to keep up lol

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 4:14 PM #

Hey Tim!! I think things are about to get interesting for me hopefully within the next 24hrs!! How have you been??

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 4:16 PM #

It was 48f when I got up around 10cdt this morning, now it's 72f and still getting warmer!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 4:24 PM #

wow brady thats a big rise in the temperature!!
hope you get something there then....

yeh ive been good thanks feel awful at the moment though :(

how have you been??

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 4:28 PM #

Broke as a joke!! =( Bills are all due at the same Time and I need money to chase!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 4:29 PM #

the downside of chasing expense for fuel.... you never know the storms could come to you instead of you going to them :)

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 4:43 PM #

That's usually what happens when I head out chasing!! =(
I drive around em and the go over my town!! hehe

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 4:51 PM #

lol thats unlucky lol ..... well you never know if you cant go out chasing you may see something really good lol....

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 4:59 PM #

I would sure hate to miss something just because I didn't have gas!! I'd never forgive myself!! I'm still tweaked that I didn't chase the Northwood storm!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 5:02 PM #

lmao yeh probs not going to help by saying this but that was a good storm.....why didn't you go??

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 5:08 PM #

Because the models were showing a better chance closer to me the next day!! =( obviously that wasn't the case!! I'm gonna do my best to chase whatever I can tomorrow! Let's just hope it pays off!! Even a good lightning vid would make me happy! I'm really hoping for that supercell that looks like the mothership hovering overhead!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 5:13 PM #

well i wouldn't worry about it lol.....
well hope something happens for you tomorrow :)41651

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 5:20 PM #

HEHE!! Thanx Tim!! I'm praying $20 will be enough!! 06628 lol

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By caleb | September 16, 2007 @ 5:23 PM #

Sorry chating on OWS.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 5:23 PM #

lol plenty ... :P anything to get out there lol :D

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 5:32 PM #

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
625 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 625 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE CORAL...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAPE CORAL BY 645 PM EDT.

AT 625 PM EDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ALSO REPORTED TWO FUNNEL
CLOUDS...WHICH MAY HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN...JUST NORTH OF FORT
MYERS BEACH.

THIS STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.



oh yes here we go :D

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By AJ | September 16, 2007 @ 5:37 PM #

hehe. Awesome. Hey everyone, how's it going out there? It's sunny and hot here, and I would love to have some action later tonite. Cross thy digits ;)

No college action today??

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 5:42 PM #

Hey AJ!! I'm hoping for action later 2nite too!!hehe Oh you mean storms!! hehe jk

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By tim jacobs | September 16, 2007 @ 5:44 PM #

lmao brady...
hey AJ coll well hope u both get something im off now get some sleep speak to you all tomorrow !!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 5:47 PM #

Have a good one Tim!! I'll keep everyone informed around here if anything happens!! Maybe I can get my trusty relay man to help out!! ( Joe Surfer)

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By AJ | September 16, 2007 @ 5:56 PM #

haha. Joe was a pretty good relay man as I recall. Maybe he can put his skills to use tonite. ;) Laters Tim.

Brady, I am pretty sure there is some college action on now, but it's probably not the type for young viewers. lol

Who's all here as of now??

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 6:01 PM #

I'm in and out!! trying to clean house a lil here!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:08 PM #

Hi guys! I'm back! Did I miss something? I'm also trying to get Joost but it doesn't work...They never sent me an e-mail as they were supposed to... What should I do?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:11 PM #

Statement as of 7:04 PM EDT on September 16, 2007


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 715 PM EDT for central
Lee County...

Between 645 and 7 PM... numerous spotters and public residents have
reported funnel clouds and possible tornadoes between Cape Coral and
Fort Myers. This storm continues to remain intense in western Lee
County... and additional funnels or tornadoes can be expected through
at least 715 PM.

National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated the storms were
most intense from Cape Coral to the west side of Fort Myers.

This is a dangerous storm! Act quickly. Go to a small interior room
on the lowest floor of a sturdy building... away from windows. Cover
your head with pillows or blankets.

Please report tornadoes or funnel clouds... winds of 58 mph or
higher... hail the size of pennies of larger... and any wind damage to
your National Weather Service in Ruskin by calling 813-645-2323.


Lat... Lon 2673 8203 2674 8192 2650 8196 2652 8204
time... Mot... loc 2304z 183deg 21kt 2671 8200


88

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 6:12 PM #

Hey Caro!! I don't think ya missed much of anything yet!! I don't know what to say about Joost!! I doesn't wanna work for me either!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 6:13 PM #

Oh crap my cousin is in Ft.Myers!! he has 7 kids!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By AJ | September 16, 2007 @ 6:14 PM #

I finally got Joost to work, after like 4 trys. lol Brady, can you hall butt down to Kansas, pick me up, and keep halling to Florida?? ;)

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 6:14 PM #

Nevermind!! I guess he moved to Virginia!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:14 PM #

I hope everything will be ok for them...I'm looking for live webcams over Florida...

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:15 PM #

lol Ok Brady... lol

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:16 PM #

Hum...it looks good!

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=1&delay=15&rbscale=0.125&scale=0.326&noclutter=0&ID=AMX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=278&map.y=216.5&centerx=740&centery=604&lightning=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 6:16 PM #

The ol Dodge aint that fast AJ!! hehe! Besides if I went to Florida I probably wouldn't wanna come back!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 6:18 PM #

Yeah I would!! I would miss my woods!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:30 PM #

wouhououuu! I'm able to download joost! At Last! After 10 try! (what's "try" in plural??? )

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:44 PM #

Hey Brady, do you have sound on Joost??? I have no sound for the twister insanity...

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:46 PM #

Hey! Take a look!

http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=14678&z=3&p=

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 6:53 PM #

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 670
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1256 PM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

AZC001-005-017-025-170200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.A.0670.000000T0000Z-070917T0200Z/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ARIZONA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

COCONINO...YAVAPAI...NAVAJO...APACHE...

.THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ASH FORK...CHINLE...CAMERON...COTTONWOOD...
DILKON...FLAGSTAFF...GRAND CANYON AND TUSAYAN...HAPPY JACK...
HOLBROOK...JACOB LAKE...KAYENTA...PAGE...PRESCOTT...SEDONA...
NAVAJO NATIONAL MONUMENT...RED MESA...SELIGMAN...THE GAP...TUBA
CITY...VALLE...AND WINSLOW.


$$

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 7:07 PM #

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 645 PM MDT
for Yuma County...

At 559 PM MDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing
destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles north of Eckley to 7 miles
southeast of Heartstrong to Kirk... moving east at 35 mph.

Severe thunderstorms will be near...
Vernon around 610 PM MDT...
Wauneta... Wray and Idalia around 620 PM MDT...
Beecher Island around 630 PM MDT...
Alvin... Laird and Bonny Reservoir around 635 PM MDT...
Hale around 640 PM MDT...

This includes Highway 36 between mile markers 185 and 223.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 207 and 265.

A wind gust of 63 mph was measured one mile west of Yuma at 545 PM
MDT. Several gusts to 57 mph have been measured in the last 15
minutes.

This is a dangerous line of storms. If you are in the path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds... destructive hail... and deadly cloud
to ground lightning. People outside should move to a shelter...
preferably inside a strong building but away from windows.

Please report severe weather to the nearest law enforcement agency.
They will relay your report to the National Weather Service office in
Goodland.

Lat... Lon 4027 10273 3988 10268 3957 10276 3957 10208
3993 10206 4043 10205

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 7:13 PM #

Hey Reed! I love the music you used for the "movie" on joost! Good work!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By MynameisBen | September 16, 2007 @ 7:34 PM #

Does anybody know why i cant view on joost? i used the invite link and all. so i dont know.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By caleb | September 16, 2007 @ 7:55 PM #

LOL 1 tornado report in FL,

DAMAGE TO SEVERAL RESIDENCES ALONG SKYLINE BOULEVARD NEAR THE 4500 BLOCK. ALSO UPROOTED TREES AND ROOF PULLED OFF WALMART. RED CROSS ON SCENE. ONE STRUCTURE DAMAGED AT (

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 8:16 PM #

That's not good news about the tornado damage.
lol poor wal-mart.......now you can't provide people with cheaper prices for a while. wal-mart lovers everywhere are mourning this loss:(

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 8:17 PM #

and also on a serious note...I hope nobody was hurt

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 8:20 PM #

Tornado's sure luv their wal-marts!! hehe
almost as good of tornado bait as trailer parks!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 8:25 PM #

70 sum entries, and notta one from Joe?? I hope he's okay!! lol I still haven't got joost working yet!! I'll play with it more later!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 8:45 PM #

Must be alotta good football games on! ucz I think I'm talking to myself again!! hehe

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 8:46 PM #

ucz?? what the hell?? CUZ!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:06 PM #

lol Brady.....no clue bout Joe. probably just busy. speaking of tornadoes and walmarts......now that i think of it, over the years I've heard of many Walmarts being hit by tornadoes. like you said......tornadoes sure love their walmarts! :P

Joost isn't working for you? I got it working on my first try......weird. Maybe something to do with how much memory you have, or somethin like that?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 9:09 PM #

This is what I'm thinking!! It seems like it's lagging very bad!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Mike | September 16, 2007 @ 9:12 PM #

nice cell forming south of draytone valley alberta

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:16 PM #

after googling walmart and tornadoes.....here is further bits of proof:

"West Park Square Wal-Mart took the brunt of the tornado."

"Officials said the tornado had also touched down at the Southpark shopping mall in Colonial Heights, just outside city limits, where it cut a swath through a Wal-Mart store from front to back."

"..their local Wal-Mart suffered severe damage after the tornado came through"

"A Santa hat lies amid shattered glass after a tornado ripped through a Wal-Mart "

"The high winds ripped the roof off a Wal-Mart store"

COINCIDENCE?????? I THINK NOT!

It is now a proven fact that tornadoes like Wal-mart. :P

If this seems dumb....I'm sorry. 'just really bored

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:20 PM #

ya brady....memory seems to likely be the problem. It says min. requirements of 512 MB of memory....though I have 446 or so and it works fine........no clue what may be the problem. any other problems happening with Joost for you? with a little more detail I may be able to help.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 9:24 PM #

Doesn't sound dumb to me!! NOAA should include that in their warnings! " if caught in a Wal-mart Try to use an old door greater to shield yourself from flying debris and falling roof"!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 9:26 PM #

Just super lag!! it's like my internet is crappier than it actually is!! Creepy My comment code starts with 666 again!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Caro | September 16, 2007 @ 9:35 PM #

Hi everybody! Before I quit for bed, I found a video of the damage done by the CAPE CORAL tornado on this site:

http://www.nbc-2.com/News/CapeCoral/

have a good night everyone and thanks for those who leave comments on my paintings! I'll do another one as quick as I can.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:37 PM #

ya i agree with the warning idea. walmarts are dangerous places on severe weather days...:D

I noticed that Joost slows down my internet connection too...but it always runs properly for me. Maybe it has something to do with the type of internet connection you hav..like Cable, DSL, T1, Dial up, etc?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 9:41 PM #

Not quite cable but alot better than dial up!! 1.5mbps

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:42 PM #

cool video Caro! man that tornado caused a lot of damages. What do you think it was/will be rated?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:44 PM #

i just checked my settings and mine is 100mbps cable connection and it still gets slowed down. I guess it could have to do with how much it needs an internet connection?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 9:44 PM #

Well I might be in for something tonight. Hope so even rain would be nice to film lol...Heavy rain more like it. Well i just hope something lurks into the unknown barrier around edmonton. So what are you guys up to?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 9:47 PM #

Hey Kenny!! I'm just waiting for an update on tomorrow!! Things might get a lil fun around here!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:48 PM #

Hey kenny. ya...rain is good lol. not much goin on....anybody else here have joost?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Reed | September 16, 2007 @ 9:48 PM #

The 00z models just came out and tomorrow looks VERY conditional. The best shear and instability will be in southern MN, but the models show very little in the way of surface-based convection there tomorrow afternoon/evening. The cold front is also back in the central Dakotas, so there may not be any surface convergence to help convection initiate. The shear is very good in south-central MN though, so if a storm can somehow develop there, it could become tornadic...although I'd say the chances are really small. Anyone planning on chasing this?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:49 PM #

..and if I'm lucky some storms may fire here too! only 30% chance thunderstorms in the forecast right now....but i hav hope:P one more storm before winter would be nice!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 9:51 PM #

My internet performance depends on where I am and which way my modem is facing!! but as long as I'm in range of the tower I can take it anywhere! just not where I storm chase! =(

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:51 PM #

still thinking of chasin tomorrow brady?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 9:53 PM #

If anything can come north far enough I should be able to chase it!! I want to!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 9:54 PM #

2 things.
1. Jon go on msn.
2. Reed when do you think the new chat will be up?

Also Jon did you hear i got a digital cam now. Pretty crappy but it still works ok I for about a trashed 1 year old camera lol. By the looks of the clouds right now, I think I might be in for some rain.

Edit: Wow it's already raining as i type this.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 9:54 PM #

2 things.
1. Jon go on msn.
2. Reed when do you think the new chat will be up?

Also Jon did you hear i got a digital cam now. Pretty crappy but it still works ok I for about a trashed 1 year old camera lol. By the looks of the clouds right now, I think I might be in for some rain.

Edit: Wow it's already raining as i type this.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By AJ | September 16, 2007 @ 9:54 PM #

Sorry guys, I kinda left in a hurry. lol. Looks like I missed some Florida action...

Brady, go for it!! I bet I can make the lil red Dakota get there quickly. lol

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 9:55 PM #

Oops sorry for double post.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By AJ | September 16, 2007 @ 9:55 PM #

It's Kenny, the "Bike Chaser Extraordinaire". hehe. What's going on little dude?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 9:58 PM #

LOL kenny...somehow I knew you'd say to go on msn! cool that ya got a camera. from your friend you said further back?

good luck brady if you do chase! 'hope you see somethin good!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:00 PM #

Well AJ!! I-35 will bring ya right here!! It ends just a few miles from here!! Right next to a beautiful BestWestern with a new waterpark!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 10:00 PM #

Lol Jon. Nothing much AJ. Also its getting really windy up here! Just checked radar too, looks like im in for some action by 12!! I got new bateries and stuff ready for this.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By AJ | September 16, 2007 @ 10:08 PM #

Awesome Kenny! Don't stay up past your bedtime though. lol jk

Brady, I'll have to take you up on that offer someday. lol Make up there extremely quickly for a redneck vakay. Now that's cool. ;)

Well gents, I'm out. Good luck to those of us chasing soon, and happy hunting!

Peace, laters all!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:09 PM #

I'm pretty sure I won't be able to go as far as the Twin Cities! But I can probably range as far as Mille Lacs or so!! Maybe St.Cloud again!! now it says 90210 hehe

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 10:11 PM #

LOL funny......maybe that will be far enough for you to chase? lets hope so so you can see somethin good

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:15 PM #

Have fun AJ!! Redneck vacations are great!!
especially up here!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 10:21 PM #

Homework, homework, homework... I think winds are up to 30-50 knots right now!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:22 PM #

Well... I'm prety sure it's gonna storm somewhat, the question is how severe!! If Reed doesn't think it looks very good I probably won't drive too far away just to look at some clouds! My chasing funds have been depleted for the season!! I'm still trying to get some gas $$ here!! hehe

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:24 PM #

Wow!! don't blow away Kenny!! hehe
It sounds like your in Duluth in November!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 10:30 PM #

that is windy kenny. lol somebody should start the "Let Brady Chase" foundation to raise money for you to chase:D that would be funny.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 10:33 PM #

In other news...Ingrids track is now much further south than before. Current indications show it may hit the US....though in its current state theres not much to worry about. If it can somehow gather strength, then it is something to worry about.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 10:33 PM #

Done my homework and stuff. Now to wait for storms..

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:37 PM #

Hehe!! That would be great!! I'd probably spend it at the bar anyway!! JK If I ever want someone to back me!! I'm gonna have to produce on my own!!

It doesn't seem like many people around here care about I do!! I have a few buddies who like it when I tell them my two cents on weather!! But others laugh at me!! They don't understand the fun of it all!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 10:39 PM #

lol ya...they're just jealous! jk :P

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:40 PM #

When I video tape their houses being blown apart and sell it, we'll see who's laughing then!! haha haha hahahahaha!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 10:41 PM #

Kenny...I'm sorry to say this.....but your forecast is calling for a chance of snow on Wednesday! lol

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 10:43 PM #

Yes brady...then they will all worship you and listen to you hoping that you can save them from it ever happening again.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 10:45 PM #

Just filmed some of the wind up here in Edmonton.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:47 PM #

HAHA!! I'm just kidding!! I wish nothing bad on anybody!!
Just my evil aunt!! =( I hope she wakes up in Oz one morning!! lol

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 10:49 PM #

You guys going to stick with me till after it storms here?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 10:52 PM #

LOL! how evil is this aunt of yours? what did/does she do?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:52 PM #

I'll be in and out Kenny!! I'm still cleaning house and gonna go have a few brews!! but yeah!! I'll be here!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 10:57 PM #

Don't get drunk brady haha. Anyway still another hour and a half..

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 10:58 PM #

I can't even begin to tell ya Jon!! When my grandpa died (her father) ( my best friend) she pretty much blamed all of his problems on me!! Plus she took all the guns he had gave me over the years! Some I even payed cash for myself!! They where all in his name, because I was too young to own them myself, and when I got older I didn't ever get them in my name!! I kept a Colt .45 1911 that he gave me!! She caused alotta hell for my whole family!! but I still have the gun!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:02 PM #

hehe....man...with the amount of posts in every forum..it's like we're all using this forum/blog thingy as a chat. Somebody gots to make a temporary chat until the real one is done....no needing to refresh the page everytime..b.ut whatever. This is good enough for me.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:04 PM #

HOLY CRAP that's one evil aunt! is she almost dead or something?

oops..that came out wrong. i mean is she old? a lot of old people get crazy like that. I've seen a few.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 11:05 PM #

Yeah!! the chat would be nice!! It's kinda nice to be able to look back over blogs of previous days and see what ya missed or see what people said about past storms!! That's really nice when ya get back in town after chasing a few hours!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:11 PM #

yup i agree with ya!

...awwwww.....still no funny nuber codes like 90210 :D

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 11:12 PM #

It's her damn greedy husband who is gonna get put in his place sooner or later!! She has always had it in for me because my grandpa would always let me do things like drive his snowmobiles and four wheelers as a real young kid, but he wouldn't le her kids do the same things!! He treated me more like a son and she didn't like that!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:15 PM #

maybe she was jealous? and despises you for it now?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 11:18 PM #

The last thing my grand father did before he died was gave her husband the finger!! hehe I love my grandpa!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 11:20 PM #

The storm is on a straight colision with Edmonton.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Kenny | September 16, 2007 @ 11:22 PM #

I'll make a chat I guess.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:22 PM #

Honestly, he her husband can't be that good of a person if that's what he got from your grandpa.

Well if its comin for ya Kenny, then it looks like you have a filming opportunity!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:23 PM #

So kenny...you making a chatango chat?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 16, 2007 @ 11:29 PM #

I hope you can get alotta lightning Kenny! I like lightning vids!! And pics too!! I'm too big of a noob to get pics!!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:37 PM #

ya....i miss lightning storms :( It's been a while since I last had one :(

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:49 PM #

Cool!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 16, 2007 @ 11:59 PM #

Anybody still here? I know Kenny had to go..but anybody else left?

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Jonathan | September 17, 2007 @ 12:00 AM #

Ok well I gotta go now anyways..school tomorrow. Bye!

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Reed | September 17, 2007 @ 12:37 AM #

I'll talk to Jason and see if we can get the chat set up this week.

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 17, 2007 @ 1:28 AM #

That would be great Reed! I just got back from having a few brews!! not too many this time!! hehe

Severe Wx possible Monday over Northwestern IA/Western MN Comment Posted By Brady MN | September 17, 2007 @ 1:35 AM #

oooh!!! New blog!!

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