News DetailSevere weather possible over the Red River Valley/southeast MB/southwest Ontario!
Posted At: August 26, 2007 @ 1:31 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
A strong cold front will move rapidly across southern Manitoba and northeast ND this afternoon, and into extreme southwest Ontario and northwest MN by evening, providing the potential focus for severe thunderstorm development after 6:00 pm CDT. The low-level jet (bottom right panel) will be very strong ahead of the front, with 850 mb flow forecast to exceed 50 knots after 00z. Deep-layer shear will also be sufficient for supercells. One negative factor for surface-based storms is the presence of a very strong cap (hatched area in the upper right panel), which will prevent the extreme instability from being utilized most, if not all, of the day. However, given strong convergence along the cold front, initiation still seems likely especially across southeast MB and southwest Ontario...Although there is some uncertainty as to whether this will be surface based. Stay tuned for updates!
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hahah kenora, ontario where i grew up is in the line of fire. nice. except for the fact lake of the woods always tends to weaken any storm that heads there. although growing up there for 18 years we had some good ones, with reports only of waterspouts. the terrian there seems unlikely for anything major to touchdown. boreal forest and canadian shield...but its whats happining in the air is what matters...reed its northwestern ontario by the way!
haha ;) good luck strike if anything hits the peg. awesome viewing for storms anywhere around winnipeg.
Mike, I apologize! It was not my intention to steal your pic and claim it as my own. Blame it on late-nite exhaustion. The actual pic will be posted later on!
This chart would make one get false hopes... or I'm being too cynical... idk... ;)
I'll have a large tornado, and a side of hail! can I get that supercelled??jk
Is this lake gonna kill storms again?
Everything through here this year has had a strong cap involved!=(
Brady: I think you should phone your boss now and say you feel like you are going to get the flu tomorrow afternoon. haha
That's a tough call for you, Brady. According to Reed the action won't start for ~4 hours, but it must be a 4-hr drive for you to get there, so you'd have to leave right about now. Maybe tomorrow would be better for you?
I don't work tomorrow!! If anything fires, I'll be all over it like flies on... food!
The SPC said a 5% chance of a tornado.
How many percent do you need to go chasing caleb?
The flies have been terrible here lately. I guess there hasn't been enough of a breeze here, which is really odd, because it's Kansas after all.... ;)
Hmm... yeah tuff call is right!! with limited fuel and a thirsty truck! it take a lil longer to go west, but north and south are real fast straight shots! I think I'll wait up a bit n see what happens!
flies were bad here last year! not so much this year!
We have been invaded by tons of grasshoppers!! I've never seen them like this!! every few years we get the army worm invasions, then they turn into moths that completely cover buildings!
Strike Well I'me not A chase I'me only 10.... if i was i would only chase in a PDS watch.
Most of the time, I need at least 10 to 15%. Greensburg happened on a 10% day, so... if I was really bored and desperate, 5% would be enough :)
Heck! I'll chase if there is a chance of seeing a rain shaft!
I usually have nothing better to do!! hehe I drove all the way to Eau Claire the other day just to see some lightning!
Brady, I beat you there! I only have to drive 10 blocks north to an empty field near a school, set up a time-lapse, and tape away... ;)
I'd go after a 5-percenter if it was close enough... since the 5% means a 5% chance of something happening within 25-miles of any given point in the highlighted area, not just a 5% chance for the whole highlighted area
I'm neither bored or desperate and I'm heading out as soon as things heat up.
BTW we've been under a severe tstorm watch for about an hour and a half.
5% or not. Being there is better than watching it later on youtube.
I would only chase in a PDS watch. AJ the greensburg tornado happend on a 20% day!.... as you al ready know i'me 10!
True that Strike! Good luck and happy hunting!
It was 20%? Man, me and information just aren't getting along this weekend... lol
Why is everybody ignoring me?
Yay! Severe T-storm watch.. might as well go out in style. Classes start tomorrow haha.
PS: I chase anything that has the word severe prefixed to it.
Still nothing for Kansas. Clear and dry... grr...
btw: Hi Caleb! Hi Caleb! Hi Caleb! (waves huge at screen) lol
Right now I've got GR3 running on both Grand Forks ND and on Minot ND sites. Just looped them both to see the noise and it seems a strong south flow from Grand Forks and a strong west flow from the Minot site. I don't know if that means anything but it sure looks interesting.
Its cool AJ, i know what u mean about late night exhaustion
The closer to my house, the better! Unless of course, there's a rain-wrapped wedge in it, then I'll start to worry.
Severe is a verrry nice word! Supercell is my other favorite :D
Ok Mike. Exhaustion at 1 in the morning isn't fun, especially when there's a possible wedge your following ;)
Yeah AJ want to see a tornado that went through my town were i use to live? click my name... exsept Ime not the one who took this video my house was on the other side of town.
Hey AJ! I'm test driving your SwiftWX right now!!
Pretty awesome Caleb! I've been in a few situations like that, and my dad is usually dragging me to the basement, camera in hand. lol
That same month and year, GC missed out on any twisters, but a huge fast moving shelf rolled over, and dumped hail up to gold ball size, I believe.
How are you getting along with it so far Brady?
Check out this site.
http://www.vrac.iastate.edu/research/sites/tornado/index.html
A little... I'm still used to GR! I've gots a lot to learn and little time!!
Yeah. It takes a little getting used to, but it works just peachy for me :) If I have the cash, I might also invest in gr3, just for the goodies :D
Finally something
AT 1248 PM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING 3/4 INCH HAIL IN BIG BEAR CITY. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BIG BEAR CITY AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN BIG BEAR LAKE
AND LUCERNE VALLEY.
Dang, your lucky Caleb! As far as I know, there sin't anything relatively exciting within 300 miles of me! AAAAAHHHH!!! lol
theres a great line of storms growing to the west .... looking real good for the rest of this aftrenoon :P
That is not for me so i am not LUCKEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
when do we sign up for a membership
Tim: You heading out soon or staying put?
Sorta looking like south of Winnipeg by the time it gets going.
Go get em Tim!! It's still a beautiful Sunday afternoon here!!
Soon I hope Gus!! Soon!!
I think I like the GR better!
The membership box should be up any day now Gus. I'm looking forward to it!
SwiftWX has it's place, but I'm slowly starting to agree with you Brady!
If anything significant develops I'll be on it. Right now just watching the radar. How bout you Tim J?
yeh your right tim....at the moment there is much going on but later should be some decent storms/cells just have to keep an eye open for anything devolping
Man! I just payed a buncha bills too or I would just buy it once and for all!
does swiftwx cover canada?
Don't feel bad Brady! School started last week for me, and I'm totally dead broke! Payment comes too infrequently, dangit. lol
idk brandon, does SwiftWX cover Canada Brady? lol
Not that I know of!! The more I play with it the less I like it!!
Brady's letter to Santa:
1. flywheel
2. GRlevel3
What is swiftwx?
although I did save a bunch of money on car insurance by switching to GEICO... then I saved more by not paying them! hehe
Yeah. Well, whatever works. ;) lol.
I'm out for the day. Have a good weekend everyone!
Yeah.. I'll see about programming some sort of Canadian weather software suite for a project before next Summer. It's on my list of "things to do should I find more then 5 minutes a day to do them"
Keep er real AJ!! Drive safe, buckle up! Watch out for deer!!
Caleb... SwiftWX is something I wouldn't even bother with!!
It's laggy! GR hardly used any cpu at all! I left it running when I'd play MVP 2005, and DOD source!
OH come on tell me LOL
Caleb, SwiftWX is a program for displaying radar information on your computer, similar to GRlevel3
It's a program that lets you see weather radar, satellite, stuff like that! lil better than weatherbug! hehe
yeah... what Joe said! Thats what I meant! lol
How do you download it?
You download it from the SwiftWX website, but after two weeks of free trial, you have to buy it... just like with GRlevel3
SwiftWX just crashed! yeah... Great product there!! =(
Well.. I'm gonna head out and get my car setup with the power inverter/laptop and stuff. Heading southwest probably Highway 2 just west of Oakbluff. Looks like there's something pushing up that should go through south of there.
Thanks Joe i am downloading it now!
As he downloads, I delete! Wow that sukt!
looks like I have to intellicast it now!=(
Hey Brady...email me your email address to reed@tornadovideos.net.
Good luck chasing today guys! Give me a call if you need some nowcasting. We might make the trip up to western MN tomorrow if the 00z models look good.
Tim: I'm thinking more south... like highway 75 maybe closer to the border. Looks like a line building up from ND
I'm going to hold off for another half hour or so. Keep us posted. I don't have mobile radar, so I might need a little guidance.
MD issued by SPC. Cloud bases will be initially high, but if cells can initiate and remain discrete until after 00z, there definitely could be a hose.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1897.html
I just sent it Reed! you guys are getting me excited here!!
Reed we've heard this "we might make this trip" so many times in the past...just tell us your not going lmao.
On the other hand i would have to agree the models look decent...but how many times have we seen decent models, look not so decent later lol.
I think the cap and morning cloud cover, may be a problem for tomorrows event. But if decent heating/destabilization can occur...watch out.
Anyone catch my drift?
Hey Reed what is a Mesovortex?
Anyone else from Winnipeg area going out?
I need some eyes and ears. All the co-pilots are staying home.
Tim: Still headed out #2?
im watchin the storms right now i might head out later
il watch for u
Hi guys! what is going on now??? Did i miss somethings?? Here in Montreal it's calm calm calm... Not even a leaf moving on the trees...boring but beautiful temperature!
I'll keep checking in Gus.... Just in case you need someone to follow you across the countryside. Ha!
check woodlands radar something forming north of portage moving se
Tornado Watch just issued for eastern ND!
I wonder why GRlevel3 doesn't provide alerts for tornado watches? They show the warnings, but not the watches.. humph
Steady cumulus field moving north in as observed in Fargo.
i live in winnipeg and we have these watches and warnings and nothings popping up, we haven't had a t-storm in 2 weeks or so.
Gus: I think that might be some sort of lake influence on the woodlands radar.
Not sure, but it seems to be taking the shape of the south basin of lake manitoba.
ya true i forgot about that
tornado watch out in northwest minnesota
New blog entry, time to move agin
Wonder if EC will issue a tornado watch for south eastern Manitoba?
Or do they get turned away at the border too?
you get the chairs Joe! I'll grab the beer! hehe
to the south of use here in winnipeg i see a humongous storm cloud forming and it looks like we'll get some action, and it sort of looks like some sort of a shelf cloud not 100 percent shur