News DetailHurricane Dean strengthening...Heading towards the Yucatan!
Posted At: August 16, 2007 @ 1:21 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
Hurricane Dean continues to strengthen, with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 80 knots (conservatively). A nice central dense overcast is very apparent on IR satellite imagery (see below), with a cloud-filled eye at the center of the most intense convection. The outflow pattern is VERY impressive, indicating the likelihood of rapid strengthening.
Most models except for the GFDL predict the hurricane to move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula Monday night/Tuesday morning, very likely as a major hurricane. The official NHC intensity forecast has maximum sustained winds with Dean at 120 knots by 96 hours! We are closely monitoring this situation, and are tentatively planning to leave for Cancun by Sunday for intercept! Stay tuned for updates!
Most models except for the GFDL predict the hurricane to move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula Monday night/Tuesday morning, very likely as a major hurricane. The official NHC intensity forecast has maximum sustained winds with Dean at 120 knots by 96 hours! We are closely monitoring this situation, and are tentatively planning to leave for Cancun by Sunday for intercept! Stay tuned for updates!
Calendar
Categories
ok I was just chatting with the cancun tourist information
and they are saying they will evacuate all the guests
to a shelter if there is a hurricane, so im not sure how
I could stay in the hotel...whats your plan guys?
REEEEEEEEEEEEED sever stuff about an hour away from me!!!!!!!!! slight rotation with it!!!! I bet i'll be in a watch in the next few hours!!!!!!!!... earthquake yesterday!
Ha! That's about what I was expecting to hear, Cors. That's where your "resourcefulness" is going to have to come into play.
As long as you're making calls, call a car-rental agency at the airport and find out if they will still rent you a vehicle with the storm coming in. If so, maybe you can go mobile during the hurricane and not be in the hotel.
Then call Cancun police dept. and find out if you will be allowed to drive around during the hurricane.
Caleb were do u live????
matt I live in kentuckey
Tornado warning just popped up in Vermont... how bout dat.
414 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CHITTENDEN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT
LAMOILLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.
* AT 413 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
CAMBRIDGE..MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.
* THE TORNADO IS WILL BE NEAR...
JEFFERSONVILLE...4 MILES NORTH OF UNDERHILL STATE PARK AND 6 MILES
SOUTH OF WATERVILLE AROUND 420 PM EDT.
5 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSON AROUND 425 PM EDT.
6 MILES NORTH OF STOWE AROUND 430 PM EDT.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...AND IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
I see a hook of sorts, and a couplet too...
Joe how do you know
that warning has been around for 20min!!
I thought it "just popped up" because it didn't appear on my GR3 until a few minutes after I loaded the scan... I forgot that some items take longer to load than others. It looks like it was already 7 minutes old by the time I posted it.
my bad! AT 413 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
CAMBRIDGE..MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.
* THE TORNADO IS WILL BE NEAR...
JEFFERSONVILLE...4 MILES NORTH OF UNDERHILL STATE PARK AND 6 MILES
SOUTH OF WATERVILLE AROUND 420 PM EDT.
5 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSON AROUND 425 PM EDT.
6 MILES NORTH OF STOWE AROUND 430 PM EDT.
AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAVERLY...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF CARROLLTON...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MALTA BEND BY 320 PM CDT.
THE TOWNS OF WAKENDA...GRAND PASS AND MOUNT LEONARD ARE ALSO IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GRAND
ISLE..MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS WILL BE NEAR...
GEORGIA CENTER AND 3 MILES NORTH OF MILTON AROUND 400 PM EDT.
FAIRFAX AND 5 MILES SOUTH OF NORTH FAIRFAX AROUND 405 PM EDT.
4 MILES NORTH OF WESTFORD AROUND 410 PM EDT.
FLETCHER AROUND 415 PM EDT.
there is a nice hook on that storm up in NY right now it looks nice.
Hey ! My first tornado warning !!!! In the south of Quebec we are under a tornado warning! I had mamatus in my backyard a few minutes ago...
Hey Caro, I was just noticing that stuff up in Quebec, it shows up fine on the Vermont radar!
Warnings
Richelieu Valley - Saint-Hyacinthe
4:26 PM EDT Thursday 16 August 2007
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Richelieu Valley - Saint-Hyacinthe continued
A strong thunderstorms line stretches along the Richelieu Valley.
The line is moving eastward at 70 km/h. One of these thunderstorms
should produce a tornado.
These thunderstorms will generate gusts of 90 km/h or more,
hailstones of 2 cm or more, heavy rain, and intense lightning.
Public in these regions should take the necessary precautions and
listen to subsequent weather warnings.
This warning is in effect from 04:25 PM to 05:30 PM EDT.
A strong thunderstorms line stretches along the the Richelieu Valley.
The line is moving eastward at 70 km/h. One of these thunderstorms
should produce a tornado.
These thunderstorms will generate gusts of 90 km/h or more,
hailstones of 2 cm or more, heavy rain, and intense lightning.
A vigorous cold front will sweep over western and southern Québec
this afternoon. Thunderstorms at times heavy are accompanying the
front.
Caro, click my name for a zoomed-out shot of the stuff in Vermont/Quebec, in case you don't have the program. Composite reflectivity scan
Hmm
I was expecting to see a post about the weather in the NE today. Guess TV is in hurricane mode?
Reed 3 thunderheads around my house it's going to rain!
Thanks Joe surfer! This is the thing i'm looking at...is it good??? I don't really understand everything i see...
oups...
http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang=fr&satdir=http://www.radar.mcgill.ca/local_radar_img/anim_radar/&satname=new_vel&satext=gif&num=9&title=VEL2.5%20Rad%20MCG%20Animation
It looks like a set of good thunderstorms (to my very inexperienced eyes). The green triangles are hail icons, and the purple box is the area of tornado warning down in Vermont. I doubt this program would show the area of tornado warning in Quebec, though. To my very inexperienced eyes, this isn't a tornado-dropper but looks like good lightning, wind, and some hail action. BWDIK
How can i see the signs of a possible tornado on the radar?
Thanks for the infos !
where did you get this image joe surfer?
The tornado warning in Vermont has been canceled, and it just looks like an MCS moving along w/some hail, lightning, & wind. There are also some thunderstorms rolling along in upstate NY near the finger lakes area.
Caro, I did a screen-capture from the GRlevel3 program on my computer, then uploaded it to tinypic.com. In other words you can't find the image on the internet... you would have to have the radar program.
Which part of Kentucky do you live in, caleb? You gettin any of that crap that's blowin along?
Something tells me this ain't gonna be no spring break in Cancun haha. Keep safe gents... Several hours of standing in an F2 Tornado is probably not the safest thing to do hahaha.
Hey there everyone! I must not be the only one cooking in the US. It's HOT! Hopefully, Erin's remnants crawl up here and give us some relief...
Joe, I wonder how Reed will talk a car rental company into that one... ;)
Lookit all that rain coming down in Texas
http://i15.tinypic.com/6h3xzll.jpg
Will the ridge be strong enough to keep Dean south?
Sure hope so.
Think the folks in New Orleans are watching this one closely?
AJ, not to make any derogatory comment about our friend to the south, but in Mexico all it takes is a little $$$
joe considering you re such an expert about mexico..why dont you tag along with me.
*friend should have been "friends"... I was talking about Mexico, not Reed, lol
Cors, good idea, but I don't want to fly to the Yucatan peninsula on short notice for a hurricane that may or may not hit! I want to intercept a Cat 4 or 5 beast in the U.S. at some point in time. Did you already book your ticket to Cancun, is that what you're saying?
No derogatory offense taken Joe. And if you guys are headed south for some action, why don't I tag along? I can miss my 2nd day of school ;)
nope i havent booked but im thinking about it ;)
Well, good luck, but be careful with your money. If I was in your wooden clogs, I would wait for a big ol hurricane to visit the U.S. somewhere so that you can freely drive up & down the coastline getting in position to get in the best spot possible. But what do I know? Never done it before either.
You're coming to Cancun too Cors??
We're booking on Saturday..just to make sure it doesn't recurve.
When we went to cabo san lucas for hurricane john we just had to sign a waiver and they allowed us to stay in the hotel. We should probably check beforehand.
Im seriously considering it reed!
Just checked the weather warnings for MB... not expecting anything but checked... found out there's a FROST warning for west MB... what the heck.. it's August.. not November!... if this is any indication we might be having more -55F temps in February again this year haha..
One of the problems with waiting for a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane to hit the US is that once the storm gets within 12 hours of the coast, they seem to drastically weaken. We've seen this happen over and over with the strong hurricanes (Rita and Katrina most recently). The likely culprit may be it bringing in drier air from over the continental US. Doesn't seem like the peninsula's have the same effect (Florida and the Yucatan). With Cat 4 and 5 storms, everything has to be in almost perfect balance for them to maintain their strength and it doesn't take much to offset that.
One of the hardest things about chasing Cane's is being able to get where you want to be. With law enforcement, road closures etc. it can be difficult. Going to Mexico adds another "problem" to have to deal with. Couple of keys is to stay "hidden" as the storm approaches. You don't want to be out driving around 12-24 hours before the storm hits. Once winds really increase, everyone seems to disappear, including law enforcement. You hope to be able to get a rental car but that isn't guaranteed. Take a wad of cash (again hidden somewhere), and be ready to connect with and bribe a local. You pretty much have to be prepared for any and all possible situations. Be persistent and creative. You don't want to get down there and then be forced to go into a bunker where you can't see anything. Plus you have to realize that there are inherent dangers not only with the hurricane itself, but with people who are in the area.
Good luck gringos! I sure someone down there would be into a storm chase.
Joel, that's very true, in both paragraphs. If you can't count on the storm sticking together and landing where you want it, you can count on a local to gladly accept your bribes. No offense to anyone, I hope.
Happy hurricane hunting!
Remember, talk down the price when buying souvineers.
But seriously, y'all should have seen the rain here in Houston today. I just bought groceries yesterday in the grocery store that had part of it's roof collapse today.
Don't forget to pack some Slim Jims. :D ... and some Pepto tablets (in all seriousness).
Do you guys speak Spanish at all? I can't believe no one has asked that yet?? (I know Cors doesn't! :P )
No Spanish. The resort areas are so Americanized that a lot of people will speak at least broken English.
Reeds supposed to be buying the survival supplies. Last year for Hurricane John I bought about 50 cans of Vienna Sausages, so he fired me.
That is an excellent reason to be fired, I would say! :-D The only better reason would be if it had been 50 cans of SPAM.
Besides, isn't that way too heavy to be carrying around??
Y'all need the beef jerky and dried fruit and stuff like that. And the Slim Jims, because Macho Man Randy Savage says so.
Maybe when Reed and Joel get more famous, that will be their endorsement deal, just like Randy Savage.
"Bite into a Vienna Sausage. Don't chase a tube without it. AAAAAAAAA!"
calling the marketing dept now...
Joe and Heidi, in that case, I should get a sponsor from Camelback hydration systems and a free lifetime supply of that powdered Powerade stuff. ;)
"Drink Powerade. Use a Camelback. It keeps amatuers like me sharp for the chase!" (swerves to avoid tractors flying at him) lol.
I would have fired you too for buying 50 cans of Vienna sausages too. That is funny though. Best of luck to yall in el mexico.
reed: You were on the money about a tornado spinning up in W. Texas or at least in the area.
VIENNA SAUSAGES!!!! I nearly vomited when I read that post.
My grandpa was obsessed with spam, and believe it or not, I used to eat spam sandwiches every day for lunch until I was 16. I'd take spam over vienna sausages any day.
The most recent NHC track has Dean slightly south of the previous. Hopefully we don't have to book a flight to belize
Good post, Joel. Reed, I agree, that does not sound very good (the sausages).
Moving on… I was very impressed earlier in the day (Thursday) with Hurricane Dean; however, I noticed the eye is currently not visible. NHC confirms this…
000
WTNT44 KNHC 170250
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
For more info, visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/170250.shtml?
I am not sure what to make of this if anything at all … could it be reorganizing, is it going through a stage, is it just the satellite, or nothing to worry about? I know the storm is still forecasted to get stronger in the days to come.
I hope you guys do not have to go all the way Belize either. I am not sure what this country is like. Anyone know? I wish you guys well in Cancun/Mexico if this is where TV.net ends up.
Good luck with the chase Reed and Joel and as ever stay safe. I hope you get some great video to show us all. I'm actually flying to Portland, Oregon tomorrow so i'll be able to see the USA coverage on this as well as the internet which is always so much better than than the UK stuff. :-)
Sorry guys i coul'nt post any thing elce cause the storm that I had was huge!!!! the presip blocked the sig!!! 65 mph wind with that!!
Now there seems some chance Dean's eye may miss the Yucatan and pass through the channel. Are you still going after it Reed, or are you going to wait for a western gulf landfall? I still don't have much confidence in the models shown because they are having problems with when, where and how much of a right turn it's going to make. Now the forcasted speed of Dean is questionable too.
Have you guys found a hotel in Cancun that will not have mandatory evacuation?
hey guys..i know this is off topic of the current hurricane talk.. but does anyone know if there is a tornado threat with the thunderstorms expected overnight in central Alberta and saturday?
hey reed, just a wild idea what about meeting up in cancun if you guys are going there?
hey pb [if your snooping around on here!] check out the priarie and arctic storm prediction valid for 7:00 am today...finally some heat baking our land...BRB keep an eye out for storm development today...some could be severe, but tornadoes are seeming unlikely so far...
all the weather channels say there arent supposed to be any storms until overnight tonight brandon.. so is it likely that then they will become severe.. its weird how we are gonna even get these storms.. it hasnt been all that hot.. and saturday.. the weather network suggests just straight thunderstorms.. i wonder if there will be a threat for severe weather tomorrow as well as tonite.. what do u think brandon?
Cors if you head to Cancun, get a hotel as far from the beaches as possible. Those are the ones most likely to get evacuated. Thousands of tourists went through Hell during Hurricane Wilma in 2005, not just from the evacuations, but also because the airport was shut down afterwards, so be aware.
Couple articles on Hurricane Wilma in Cancun:
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-10-21-wilma-weekend_x.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4366390.stm
List of hotels, if this helps:
http://www.cancun.com/Search/Hotels
After reading the latest advisory on Dean, it seems like they keep changing the track slightly more to the northwest, taking the storm possibilly between the Yukatan and Cuba. This would be very bad. Dean might not make landfall until it reaches the Continental United States (besides maybe a skimish of Jamaica). What do you guys think the chances are of this?
Reed, I bet your grandpa was in the World War II. My Dad was (he's 82) and he is ALSO obsessed with SPAM. As a result, I've had far too many SPAM meals in my life (baked, fried, straight out of the can...); I do not wish them on anyone! :D My Dad also eats VIENNA SAUSAGES, potted meat and something called braunschweiger... which he spreads on crackers!!! *stifles gag-reflex*
Seriously though, do you need to take iodine tablets or something? You know, in case the infrastructure is damaged, so you don't have to (shudder) drink the water as-is (if of course bottled water becomes scarce)??
im pretty sure those hotels are actually the strongest stuctures out there it would be a shame if they mandatory evacuate all the people from there. i think ;)
Heidi Im sure they wont run out of drinks in cancun :D
Yeah, I know :-P I was thinking of a worse-case scenario. I'd guess I'm just trying to protect myself from having to read about "Montezuma's Revenge" in the Hurricane Dean Chase Log. :-D
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezuma's_Revenge_(medicine)
I thought iodine tablets were for radiation... or are they for bad water too?
Dean's forecast to hit a cat 4 by Sunday now, earlier then expected. If it keeps strengthening like this we might hit cat 5. Now I'm jealous of Reed hahahaha
If it were me, I don't know if I'd even bother with a hotel reservation. I doubt they'll be all booked up. Gives you a chance to look around and find one in a good spot.
We'll have enough food and water to survive for a week or so...but I still think montezuma's revenge is INEVITABLE!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/
There's the latest info for the forecast on Dean's track.
Well Reed, it sounds as if you better think about packing some TP too. You know ... just in case.
Here's a thing about iodine tablets in relation to water:
http://www.rei.com/product/407071
And here's the info about iodine in relation to radiation, in case anyone was wondering (you're right, Tim :)
http://www.stuk.fi/sateilyvaara/toimintaohjeet/en_GB/jodi/
Ahh very cool Heidi!