News DetailTropical Storm Erin heading for South Texas!
Posted At: August 15, 2007 @ 1:36 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
Tropical Depression 5 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin earlier this morning, and is expected to strengthen slightly before making landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, TX in ~48 hours. The convection around the center of Erin has been extensive, with a very prominent upper outflow pattern. The main threats with TS Erin will be heavy rain, gusts to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes in the right-front quadrant in South Texas. Here is the IR image of Erin as of 1;30 pm CDT.
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Awesome!
We vote for 3 (both). Or maybe you can go for a triple play, and get the hurricane in Jamaica, the hurricane again on the mainland, and also a tornado on the outskirts!
we are demanding little buggers aren't we
Or...
4. Go down to Hurricane Central and consult with News 5 Meteorologists during the weekend to plan an interception route.
If I was a betting man, I would have to go to the Yucatan to see the best out of this one. The models seem to put it there, and the historical tracks (for what good they do I don't know) put it going across there. Getting some good pics of some scared tourist is always exciting. Just make sure to barter with the locals for souviners.
there is a Sever thunderstorms thret tornado thret low AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH...
there is some hope!!! on thursday there will be some svr weather in my area!!!
Cool! action is coming! Hey! I saw Reed on the figaro news (France) http://www.lefigaro.fr/high-tech/20070808.WWW000000386_tornadovideos.html
Nice article Caro! It's too bad I can't read French, but I think I get the basic idea of it.
Erin looks to make it's way into Texas and possibly the hill country, which could create a major problem when it interacts with areas that have already seen major flooding.
Dean could become a beast of a storm. The latest forecast discussion out of the NHC is calling for it to become a major hurricane in 5 days. This is because it will be encountering warmer ocean water temperatures, and there is very little shear due to strong ridging in the area. The ultimate path will be determined by the High pressure area that is forecast to build into the SE US.
Hang in there Caleb! I have a nil chance for storms tomorrow, but I doubt it will turn into anything. Our biggest chance right now is from tropical stuff. Maybe Dean's remnants will produce something :)
And that's cool, Reed is featured in a French newspaper with the Mulvane tornado. Not bad globetrotting skills.
Is it true that tornadoes have names???? Someone just tell me that they give names to tornadoes just like huricanes
No Caro, only hurricanes get names. I guess tornadoes are less predictable, and in some ways less significant. (but definitely not to us in the midwest US :)
I called it the Mulvane tornado because that's the name of the town that one was near.
Thanks AJ! That's what i was thinking...
Sure, haven't you heard of Tornado F%$#@!& that knocked out all those windshields, and also Tornado F*^#&!@ that tore down that barn?
They are rated on the F scale like that!
I talked to a buddy in Atlanta, and he said to call if New Orleans is put under the gun. I think option 4 may be in Reed's best interest.
Joe just stop please just ya stop thats not funny hehe just messing with ya but like ya stop.
Can someone tell me how many tornadoes occured this year??
haha Joe. A more F scale realistic rating system. lol.
no clue Caro but i think in the Us there is like 1000 per year i could be wrong
Thats the same F scale I use to talk about the drivers here
Whats up guys!!! I just got back from school... Anyway as you all know I havn't posted since last Friday lol. I can't believe that the tropical wave in the gulf is now Tropical storm erinn!!! This is great news for me: 1. the storm will break down the heat Dome 2. this will bring NEEDED rain into my area and 3. It will enhance the severe weather threat in my region (dances around happily)!!!! I'm also watching TS Dean.... This storm is going to become a massive hurricane guys!
Hey Zack! Yeah, Dean has grown stronger this afternoon. I think it'll become a hurricane before forecasted!
I also have no clue how many tornadoes occured this year... my rough guess would be anywhere from 500 to 2500. lol. Joe should be getting the info right about ...
Corey, maybe Reed should hang out with you more!
Click my name to see the number of tornadoes reported this year and previous years.
One thing is sure, it was a good season for tornadoes
Thanks Connor!
Thanks Connor, you saved the day! :D I wasn't too far off, on the prelim report. It sure seems like a lot of activity to some, but actually it's a fairly normal amount, if you consider everything from spotted funnels to different people's nomenclature of the word "tornado". lol
Sorry AJ, but at the time the request was made, I was already involved with a more absorbing research project (picking my nose) (got an F3 this time I think, two knuckles deep, look for my video and chase logs later)
Nice link Connor! Looks like even more than 1000 per year!
That's nice Joe. I'm looking forward to seeing the blog and report. (gag!) lol.
Hey AJ!! Hows it going lol?? Yesterday was the first day of school for me and today marks the second. Ugh I cant stand this heat lol It's really taking it's toll on me especially If you have to walk 2-3 miles to your home!! Anyway now that summer vacation is over my lawn mowing job is too. I'm glad... almost had a heat stroke the other day! I hope we get relief from TS Erin.
Wow! on this "tornado statistic" June, july and august are under the average...I believed it was a good season...
Zack, school starts for me tomorrow, and I live 6 blocks away, so I will feel the heat, literally! Erin has intensified, and hopefully it's remnants strech up here into Kansas and... wherever you live. lol.
Caro, here's another metric. TV.net hasn't filmed a tube since the June 23 Manitoba wedge.
I believe this is Day 53 of the video drought!
Thats true Joe Surfer...but i missed all july and i just come back on the net so i'm out for the news on TV.net...
Maybe Reed and gang can intercept a storm of the tropical style, add a little variety to the collection ;)
sorry for the bad english...french is better for me... :-)
Tahts's ok Caro, wer'e nott so goud at Enggnlissh eeither. LOL
hahaha! Thanks AJ! I'm here to learn everything i can, even english! You're a great bunch of people!
It is ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE DEGREES here. That's right. I said 105!
PLEASE - MAKE IT STOP!!!! 8-O
Don't feel left out Heidi, it's 103 here with the humidity in the mid 30's. I'm sweating like Michael Vick at an AKC dog show.
Ok, maybe I'm not sweating that badly, but it's HOT!!
WOW Reed Le Figaro thats like france most important newspaper! :)
Man tomorrow looks pretty good for me i think. not so sure about it but man im hoping for a goof one
Ian...if I were a betting man...which I am...I'd say the Yucatan as well. That would be the prime spot for a hurricane intercept as well. We could easily navigate north-south, and there are plenty of large hotels where we could seek shelter.
Great to have you back Cors!
The hunt to the tornados as if you were there
Reed Timmer and its acolytes criss-cross the roads norths American to photograph and film the tornados of always more near. A blog that messes the hair.
One could believe that it some adds: with 126 tornados and two hurricanes to the meter, Reed Timmer already does figures of "routard" with the hunters of tornados. But since the fall 2006, more no one can doubt his list of awards: thanks to the blog TornadoVideos.net, this reckless young one of 25 years brings the daily proof of his frantic quest of sensations. Photos, video, cards and trcker GPS to the support.
Native burnt head of the Michigan, it left himself to take all kid by the passion of the meteorological phenomena. "When I was small, I was without planted stop in front of the chain forecast. This is there that I knew that I wanted to be tornado hunter for the remainder of my days!" A become dream a true obsession when, October 4 1998, Reed Timmer crosses his first tornado three months after to have registered itself to the university of the oklahoma, the "Mecca of the studies in meteorology."
To 500 meters of a tornado
"It there has not nothing comparable to the does to rediscover itself to less than some meters of a violent tornado. One feels so small and insignificant in visionary the swept trees to the ground!", does it relate.
For everybody this is what the arcticle is in English. And one i dont speak French i use a translation online so some things could be a little messed up.
Reed, the possible tornadoes due to the right-front quadrant of Tropical Depression 5 would be weaker tornadoes, right, not heavy-duty violent ones as from a supercell?
Sorry Guys Im working on the other half as we speak
Part 2
Houpette to the Tintin and to smile kid, Reed is inexhaustible on the sensations obtained by a tornado to the approach. Narratives without special effects that have nothing to envy to the scenarios of the Hollywood superproductions. "That does the noise of monstrous falls of waters or of a reactor and that feels often drinks it cut and sometimes natural even the gasses when the tornado sweeps lived zones."
Mexico to Canada
But for Reed, the hunt to the tornados does not summarize itself that to a climbed adrenaline. "Intellectually, it is unbelievable to attend the placement in movement of the mathematical and physics in the atmosphere". With his binomial Joel Taylor, 26 years - 94 tornados to his active one - Reed traverses between 80.000 and 120.000 kilometers per year, Mexico to Canada, to retrieve pictures always more impressive to their netsurfers. "Thanks to the video streaming, this is a lot easier one to divide our experiences with the remainder of the world", does it explain. On the blog, the netsurfers coming from the entire world not itself there are mistaken: the commentaries oscillate between the bulletin forecast expert, the admiration without limit and the good pipe accomplice. "Our ultimate goal is to allow does not import that to live comfortably a hunt to the tornados since at his place", explains Reed.
For its part, the reckless young account well to live his addiction on all the continents. "When I would have obtained my meteorology phd, next year, I will study the phenomena forecasts extreme all around the globe: tropical cyclones in Australia, typhoons in Asia, tornados in Argentina, Canadian blizzards."
Like i said some of it might be messed up i did this online so ya
Matt - howling with laughter here!
Sorry i got bored and somebody said id read it but its French. Man i feel like an idoit thanks alot Joe u r just the greatest heheheh lol.
Ya i feel like a huge idiot right now lol.
Are you kidding, this is hilarious!
"Native burnt head of the Michigan, it left himself to take all kid by the passion of the meteorological phenomena. "When I was small, I was without planted stop in front of the chain forecast. This is there that I knew that I wanted to be tornado hunter for the remainder of my days!"
And what's that about "With his binomial Joel Taylor"... hmm, I didn't know Reed and Joel were binomials... hmm
ROTFLMAO
All right. Where's the link to Le Figaro newspaper article? I am on the case.
"Le Fig" was my fav newspaper by the way when I lived in France. Way to go guys.
yup the Idiot scale is rising i can feel it.
Ya im a idiot so ya im going for dinner maybe 20 minutes away will help me. or maybe rehab is an opinion(just kinding). But ya i am of for dinner
So ya im back from dinner and nobody is here they have all left. So im just going ot leave a melt away and maybe come back later
Man were is everubody tonight?????
That's funny
Hey reed tomorrow I am in a 15% chance of hail but to the east is in a 30% chance i'me gussing i'me in a 10% chance of a tornado
Caleb thats a 15% chance of severe weather for tomorrow not 15% chance of hail and it could be a 2% chance of a tornado or less
well at least i'll have a good time!! click my name for the report!
Breaking News
Big Quakes strike Peru!
Tsunami warning Peru Chile Ecuador and Columbia
7.9 is what being reported.
That translated article sounds exactly like what I would end up with if I tried writing something in French or Spanish. It's like "Okay, here are all the words I know in Spanish/French, and now I am going to put them into a sentence." I liked Joe's ROTFLMAO. ... A good friend of mine majored in French in college, and I sent him the article when it was first posted. I ought to send him this translation now! He's the howling-with-laughter kind, so I'm sure this would incite a hoot!
That quake sounds like bad news. I have family who have done missionary work in that same area of Peru - they were just there this past June. :-/
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americas/08/15/peru.earthquake/index.html
Since the focus was 29 miles below-surface, and the epicenter most likely in solid rock, it's no wonder there is not a whole lot of damage being reported (it of course helps that it wasn't in Lima though, too). 29 miles isn't exactly THAT deep for an earthquake's focus, but at least it wasn't more surficial and in less stable terrain.
Joe, were you in Seattle back a few years ago when you had the 7.whatever it was?? That one was over 100 miles deep, if I remember correctly, and of course caused little major damage.
hey joe..good question from an above earlier post about tornadoes that form from tropical storms and hurricanes...im also curious to know the same question.
but im thinking supercells do spawn the most violent tornadoes...
I was stationed in Seattle when we had one in i think 96 and agian in 97 is that the one you are talking about?
Ian, I am pretty sure this is the one I am thinking of; it was in 2001:
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2001/eq_010228/
I had to look it up because I wanted to see what the depth of the focus was (this one was 58km, not 100 miles as I'd mis-stated before... for some reason I thought there was one that was hundreds of KILOMETERS deep though ...)
All I can really remember is that a facade or something fell from a hotel onto a street in Seattle. I thought it was more recent than 2001, too. Maybe Joe was there and remembers everything!
Here is the latest landfall model for Dean (5:00 PM)
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=04
sea level readings indicate a tsunami was generated. we have observed a tsunami signal on the deep ocean gauge off nothern chile
Each Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) gauge is designed to detect and report tsunamis on its own
http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream4
Here's the live-stream for the earthquake thing. it's PANDEMONIUM from Lima!!! but it's also in Spanish.
Yep, Heidi, I remember it well! It was great. We called it the Nisqually Quake because it was centered under the delta of the Nisqually River. I was in a meeting on the 2nd story of a 3-story building, when suddenly everything started really swaying... a couple guys ran out the room, two others got under the conference table, but I wanted to make sure I really "experienced" it so I stood up by the window to watch outside (you're not supposed to stand by windows)! It was sizeable but not the Big One this region could get some day
Tornado Warnings for more or less the Northern half of Indiana. Heres hoping for some bad storms in Central Ohio late tonight.
sounds like somebody thought they saw one, in the latest warning
"AT 1123 PM EDT...ARGOS POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED A TORNADO IN
ARGOS. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MENTONE...OR ABOUT 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARSAW...AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH."
On the radar there is a tvs and a nice looking tail so I wouldn't be suprised.
To be honest with you that thing prob is putting down an EF1 or EF2 tornado maybe even stronger. Looks pretty nasty and I bet there is some damage.
Wow. TS Dean is expected to hit Cat 4 by monday. It took a while but Hurricane seasons is apparently coming in with a roar. I have a feeling the Texas Panhandle is in for a bad end of summer as everything seems to be going that general direction these days.
you could see rotation plain as day on radar on that storm in northern illinois, as well as a 70-75 dbz hail core...impressive!...good call tim about the hurricane season comming in with a roar...i wonder if new orleans for example can sustand another storm...
WOW! Dean is now showing a potential eye on satellite. It's definitely strengthening steadily!
Tornadoes typically occur in the right-front quadrant of land-falling tropical cyclones. This is where the best cyclonic curvature with height occurs. The best chances for these types of tornadoes are when a tropical cyclone is "picked up" or embedded in a mid-latitude trough. We could have some tornadoes with Erin as it moves into west Texas!
is sustand even a word!!?? i meant to say sustain...i think...!!! ive had a few beer to celebrate the purchase of my first home tonight...stoked! dean is looking alot more organized for sure...thanks for the explanation reed!
Thanks Reed! It sure looks like Jamaica may be a good spot for you guys if you can swing it in time
Hi Everyone!
Reed, as I stated in previous emails to you (awhile ago), you do a great job with this site and bringing weather video to us. I have read the TV.net site for months. I am very impressed with the TV.net news (comments), photos, and video you bring to us. Joel and others do a great job with the video, photos, and posting as well! I am looking forward to the membership! Keep up the great work!
As far as the tropics go, I am looking forward to TV.net coverage (videos, photos, etc.) of the hurricanes. Hurricanes are one of my favorite types of severe weather. I remember watching the live coverage of Hurricane Andrew. Ever since then, I have always been interested in them. I do not like to see the loss of life, injuries, and property damage with any type of storm including tornadoes and hurricanes.
Yes, I agree with the comments … I think Dean is going to be a very strong storm. Thanks for the update, Reed, about the eye wall. I look forward to TV.net coverage of Hurricane Dean!
Another tor warning issued for the southernmost part of that cell in IN, so I guess the storm has not lost its punch yet.
it just looks like a mcs in northern illinois, nothing to organized...but the northern part of the state and into ohio is under a tornado watch...
CONGRATS on the first home Brandon! Sounds like you are dominating!
Thanks for the comment Jason...it's definitely the regular visitors/blog posters that make this thing happen!
There will be many more new features in time for next storm season.
thanks reed...! its no big deal but if you ever find your way around the red deer area chasing, my door is open...like jason said, this site pretty much fu@king rules...! and the constant updates on a daily basis makes me look forward to comming here everyday...keep up the outstanding work...! that bow echo in illinois still has alot of fuel with dewpoints in the high 60's in the area...
just read the NWS tropical storm discussion vaild for 2:05 am edt august 16th...they are saying dean is moving quicky over a southern part of a deep layer ridge and should become a hurricane today...i love weather.
I just hope that Erin will cool us in central oklahoma a good 10 degrees because i cant take this heat! I am a newcomer to actually learning and studying meteorology in depth but I saw td #4 off by cape verde when it first appeared and you could tell that it had potential just by looking at how tightly organized it was upon developing. Im glad that the Atlantic is finally starting to blow up i just hope nothing bad happens like Katrina.
LET THE MADNESS BEGIN!!! Dean is now a category 1 with max sustained winds of 75mph and a minimum central pressure of 987millibars still going west. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
ok 3 in a row from me but i gotta say there are already 3 tornado warnings from tropical storm erin near corpus cristi and the sun is just rising!
Wow the Earthquake does sound bad...they are saying atleast 337 dead. there was also a tsunami warning but i think they droped it
Shoot, I went to bed at the time the tornado stuff started happening in Indiana last night. I HAD NO IDEA!!! Note to self: Always check the watches and warnings before closing down for the night! :-D
I think I should start booking some hotel rooms in Cancun :P...lets get the party started!
Strong morning thunderstorms in N.VA, DC AREA! Md too. This rarley happens. I am doing a happy dance, since I am the only one up........but now its thundering I am afraid THAT won't last long!
i guess another earthquake happened in big island hawaii according to this report about 6 hrs ago...i wonder why there has been so much activity...im pretty sure there was a small one in Los Angeles last weekend...one in Hawaii before flossie went by, peru last night, and now this one?
Nasty here this morn in Ohio between 3-5 I had a wind gust of 57mph with nearly constant lightning. Needless to say branches and few lawn things are strewn about the apartment complex. Now it just gets warm about 93 today.
If Dean is moving about 23mph he should move about 522 miles a day if my math is correct.
Typhoon Sepat is Category 4 and is headed right toward Taiwan
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/images/200709W.png
I wonder if James Reynolds is going to intercept Sepat in Taiwan. It wouldn't be surprising because he was there in 2005.
James, ya out there, buddy??
As expected, James "TyphoonHunter" Reynolds is all over it.
By TyphoonHunter | August 16, 2007 at 07:04 am
"I am now in Hong Kong and my flight to Taipei leaves in an hour. Tomorrow morning I will be heading to the east coast town of Hualien to prepare for the arrival of the typhoon. This storm has intensified further."
http://www.nowpublic.com/category-5-supertyphoon-sepat-forecast-strike-taiwan
that typhoon sounds like an absolute monster, may the force be with you james :P
btw brrr anyone watching the stock markets.. :(
Question for Reed or Joel, if one of you happens to read this post.
1. What's the reason for the shape circled in blue here, from the relative velocity scan of the Indiana storm last night? Notice the radar site is at upper right.
http://i13.tinypic.com/6gbw76w.jpg
Is that what's known as the gust front, leading outflow from the storm, or what? What exactly am I seeing there?
2. What's the reason for the concentric rings around KILX on the composite reflectivity, from just a few minutes ago?
http://i10.tinypic.com/4qyf5eg.jpg
Obviously since they're centered around the radar, they're some sort of false signal? What's up with that, if you happen to know.
Thanks in advance if you happen to read this and know what's up.
Joe Surfer - for #1 that's the gust front of the storm, the front edge of the red is where winds would shift from the south to the north. I couldn't pull up the link for #2. Sounds like its some type of radar malfunction though.
Reed and I are beginning preparations to go to Cancun on Sunday for what should be Major Hurricane Dean. Right now it looks like it could be a Cat 4 storm at landfall sometime on Tuesday. We'll keep everyone updated.
thats awesome joel!
Thanks Joel. I was also wondering what gives the gust front that hammerhead shape. In other words, in the radar, why are there areas of green just behind the leading red of the gust front... is that because the gust front is coming down from a higher elevation and spreading out, or what's going on.
If you or anyone else can understand what I'm asking, pls. let me know. Thanks