News DetailTROPICAL UPDATE!
Posted At: August 14, 2007 @ 1:51 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
This morning, Tropical Depression 4 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum pressure of 1004 mb. As of early afternoon, there was substantial convection near the center of the cyclone, but easterly shear was still preventing explosive strengthening. The visible image as of around 2:30 pm EDT is shown below:
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iiiii
i am doing news articles
I don't know what I did to Upset Matt... So Sorry bud.
from the previous blog
SO I'm gonna leave this place alone...
It was just a miscommunication, Rene. Happens all the time in cyberspace. Don't worry about it.
most of the time these type of tropicel storms and herracains proudce tornadic waterspouts!!
Reed,
"We are planning to intercept Hurricane Dean, either in the Caribbean before it has the opportunity to interact with land, or somewhere along the U.S. East Coast"
Or both! Maybe you can intercept it in the Antilles, then fly around it and catch it again on the mainland! Ya never know
i bet the surfers are happy in hawaii!!!
LOL yeah 10-18 foot waves!!!!!!
Reed 1 tornado report today in FL,
Where's the sign-up sheet to go hurricane chasing, I'm in! lol. This should make Connor from Texas happy.
I would think intercepting a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane would take a lot of resourcefulness. Buying the plane ticket would be the easy part. But once you get in the general region, what if the police are preventing people from moving around so you can't get close to the eye? Where do you stay - will a hotel allow you to pop in & out the door at will or will they force you to shelter? Do you just go out in town and find a strong brick building to stand behind for hours upon hours, in defiance of evacuation orders? Bring pocket-loads of cash to bribe your way around, I guess
Rent a company-looking car, and tell them you work for the NHC Joe. Course, that's probably worse than bribes though... lol
Yup, hurricane season has begun. And man i wish i could see those waves in Hawaii, we just went surffing in california and the waves sucked butt. 2-3 feet the entire time.
Joe it starts next month!
I'd like to learn how to surf... there's just a large problem, and it's called "land masses". lol. Apparently, I'm surrounded by several hundred miles of it. Oh well, one of these days maybe...
How soon until that blob in the Gulf of Mexico is named? Won't strengthen much prob a tropical storm but more rain for Texas which is way over surplus. Hopefully it will cool off the southeast with its cloud shield.
AJ, if I owned a car rental franchise, I'd make sure my fleet was grounded during landfall. Maybe a dirt bike would be the way to get around... bypass the police barriers, hehe
@caleb, season's already here, dude.
"The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity. June 1st has been the traditional start of the Atlantic hurricane season for decades. However, the end date has been slowly shifted outward, from October 31st to November 15th until its current date of November 30th.
The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2 - see Subject D1) hurricane days, and 96% of the major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days occurring then (Landsea 1993). Maximum activity is in early to mid September. Once in a few years there may be a tropical cyclone occurring "out of season" - primarily in May or December."
Guys i found some awsome videos!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmaRfFI3GUQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBUS1BGhtmo&mode=related&search=
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdCqe8zaJng&mode=related&search=
one is a landspout in downtown LUBBOCK
one is a waterspout less than 50 yards away!
one is a wedge tornado 200 yards away!!
It's easy to go where you need to along the coast before a hurricane. At least along the coast here in texas. You just need to know the area a little bit and you will be fine. Evacuation orders cannot be enforced, but after the storm is a different story. You would need a press pass to get around road blocks.
Caleb the hurricane season officially started in the begining of june.
sorry guys....just got carred away!
Well, that makes sense... I guess I was remembering a so-called "mandatory" evacuation order from a couple years ago, but you're right, how could it be enforced. As long as you're not trying to get into a metro area at the last minute when the highways are turned around, it shouldn't be too hard to get into position. I guess you can then park your vehicle behind a strong building and take it from there (and don't be mistaken for a looter afterwards)
The best place I have found to park is parking garages. Alot of hotels them and they are usually well built. As far as the looter thing, just don't go on ANY private property and you will be fine.
why i'nt anyone talking to me?
Man, I wish I was in O'ahu right now. Its southern beaches are probably getting some sizeable surf. Ala Moana FTW!!
surf report:
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
338 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU
MOLOKAI AND MAUI...
.OVERVIEW...INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI. THIS
ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BIG ISLAND IS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AS THEY ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH. DETAILS FOR THE DANGEROUSLY HIGH SURF ON THE
BIG ISLAND CAN BE FOUND IN HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI WILL
INCREASE TO HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
Ahhh, finally I have a chance to be a "REAL" storm rather than a pathetic 40mph tropical storm of years past. NICE!
Maybe you cause enough damage you will be retired into history
Anyone watching Nebraska?
Looking better all the time.
Not the state..... The storms... Duh.
Yeah not really there is only a 2% chance of a tornado
Hey folks!! I just got home from the shop! did I miss anything good?
NOOOO nothin really!
I was a student at University of Miami during Andrew...and like Ian says, the best place to put a car is in a parking garage. I was staying in the Holiday Inn next to the old National Hurricane Center, across the street from University of Miami in Coral Gables, and decided to park my car in a parking garage a little ways away. It was the best decision I have ever made. The next morning almost every car in the parking lot was destroyed....trees on top of them, blown around, telephone poles on them etc....heck next door at the hurricane center parking lot there was a blue car blown on top of a gray car....which you will sometimes see on documentaries of Andrew...I actually have a picture of myself sitting on the hood of that car....I had wanted to find a piece of the NHC doppler radars dome that blew off the roof of the hurricane center during the storm to keep as a souveneir but there was no sign of it anywhere. Anyway all of the car owners came out and were really mad that their cars were wrecked....and i walked down the street and got my car. Not that having a car after Andrew did a whole lot for me - 100% of all traffic lights in Dade County were blown down....so the traffic jams were incredible...and there was a curfew. I ended up spending a week in a hotel in Fort Myers with a friend and then when they announced that the start of the school year was goinmg to be delayed a month I ended up driving home to CT. The storm itself was really exciting though. I was very close to the northern edge of the eyewall. I went outside for the last time around 2:30am and the eye hit at 3am or so IIRC, and it was like being in a washing machine. Where I was wasnt near the beach but there was sand blowing in the air with the rain....and the water and sand came right thru the seals of the windows of the hotel and my apartment where I lived. Crazy.
Wow Mike, that's an awesome story. Makes me remember to appreciate the power of nature :) It also makes me want to capture intense hurricane footage even more. lol.
Jeez that thing sitting in sw SD is big and ugly.
Just sitting there dumping 3" hail and inches of rain.
Not many people around those parts I'd assume.
That is a great story. A can remember Alicia in the 80's so clearly, that's when I got interested in hurricanes. by the way, NHC has just upgraded the system in the gulf to TD#5
I think a concrete parking garage would be a great choice Mike! But that assumes you are in a metro or semi-big city. Dem dere hurricane eyes don't always aim for the cities! (although for a few years it sure seemed they did)
Great story about Andrew (the hurricane, not the dude from Anoka). That was a historic one for sure.
I guess hurricane chasing is all about preparation and common sense. Bring plenty of food, water, park your rig in a (hopefully) semi-safe spot, and do not hang out in an area of predicted storm surge.
Geez, when is AJ going to get some action? His area of KS looks dry as a bone once again.
Reed, here is your waterspout mission, should you choose to accept it. Get one of those Coast Guard boats, the ones that can fire those gigantic streams of water out of their firehoses. Then fill the tank with fluorescent pink dye, get close to the spout, and then inject it with the dye from a close distance! You will create a massive, pink, colourful waterspout that can be seen for miles! Be sure to use the biodegradable dye, though, so the whale-huggers don't get on your arse.
Is that a plan, or what? And you thought this forum wouldn't give you any good ideas.
No, no, no! He is to use day-glow orange, not pink, Joe! Sheesh.
Joe, I know, it's a desert out here! We probably won't get any significant weather until next month, or even later this month. It makes me sad :(
I guess we need a color swatch to make sure it doesn't clash with the sunset. Damn there is always a complication!
Don't be sad AJ. If you are sad, we will all weep. :,-(
Has anybody said tropical depression #5 is in the gulf? I am unable to remember if that has happened yet??? I could scroll up and read this over again, but that would indicate a level of evergy inconsistent with my current state.
I just watched The Grapes of Wrath. You Okies had it real rough, mmm hmmm.
(Heidi will now shut up.)
:-D
I think it has been said Heidi. But did I mention that both TD-5 AND Dean could affect me if everything goes according to my master plan???????? :D
Heidi, it's not in the Gulf yet but could be aiming for it. Clik on my name for the latest 5-day outlook.
Joe, Heidi is talking about TD-5, which just formed in the gulf.
Oh, wait, Heidi said #5 and Dean is not #5.
How confusing. Geez no wonder they give these things names!
Thanx, Connor, you beat me to it. Okay, now I see it!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/033900.shtml?5day#contents
Connor, I'm serious, I should fly to your house and we can intercept Dean. If nothing else, it would be a chance for me to feel the rain again. lol. It's dry up here!!
WoW Joe!! You have some great ideas! lol The funny part is it would prob work and look great!! hehe
AJ I would love to have you. That is, if you can pay for the plane ticket. The current models are showing Dean hitting Houston as a powerful hurricane! Which of course puts me right in line for a lot of wind, rain, and maybe some tornadoes!!!
But the evacuations... ugh. It would be Rita all over again. Highways backed up for hundreds of miles...
Hello everyone,
For those of you who put up with my spazzing last night... check out the pics of this beast just before it hit our area.
mnwxchaser.com. August 13 chase. (One of our local storm chasers).
Um... VERY nice lowering on that thing. Apparently a giant supercell was imbedded on the southeast side of that big blob last night...
yikes.
Yeah Connor, backed up fleeing traffic sucks. We might have to use dual sport bikes to get around. Maybe you'll get yourself a tornado or three, who knows?
I think dual sport bikes might be our only option. When Rita hit they even opened up all lanes going to Dallas, and the traffic was still bumper-to-bumber the entire way. Not to mention buses kept exploding. We had friends from Houston that evacuated to come stay with us, and it took them two days.
Whoa. In that case, we are most definitely using dual sports. lol. Just mount a camera mount on the handlebar pad, and we're good!
So... What's on tap for this afternoon/evening??
looks like storms here again!/? yes/no
The Models are showing, no matter where this hits, Its going to be a monster, I hope the dont contraflow I45 all the way to dallas again, now that I think back on it, not to mention I just drove the whole length.
GFS saying direct hit on New Orleans next Thursday night?
That couldn't be good.
PB, Its been changing around all day. This Morning is said East Coast, This afternoon its said Houston, Now N.O.
The 1 point they all have in commen, It looks like a very significant hurricane, CAT4+ with that eyewall, looks like it came directly from The Day After Tommorow.
Does anybody know where i can find good tropical weather models..like hurricane and stuff?
Jonathan, these are the sights I use:
http://www.weatherunderground.com
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
Hopefully this helps, I live south of Houston and work for Houston Fire Department so this thing has me a little concerned. Anybody ends up coming this way let me know and I can help get to know the area a little bit.
During the 2007 Hurricane Season, affected NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) will issue a new product, Extreme Wind Warning (EWW).
Yeah I noticed that... latest forcast for Dean has it going south of Cuba which increases the chances of this thing ending up in the Gulf of Mexico. Could be bad for somebody... time will tell.
Hey Andrew, thanks for the link to those photos. That was pretty rough! 8-O And for the record, your "spazzing out" was awesome! I think that's the most "A"s anyone, even Reed, has ever done! AAAAAAAA!
No Rene u didnt upset me its was a misunderstainding on my part. and right after that i had to go to work so thats why i didnt post anything after that. Anyways ya so dont think u upset me it was a misunderstanding on my part.
Posted By Rene | August 14, 2007 @ 11:48 AM #
sweet thanks for the info,
my co-worker is going to Hawaii to get married...
She had asked me to get some info on the hurricane.
Damn...she's gonna miss the storm LOL
Posted By Matt | August 14, 2007 @ 11:55 AM #
Thanks wasnt so nice there Rene
What i said was about the bottom line as a joke because u said damn shes going to miss the storm. thats why i said that isnt so nice or something like that.
So ya i was joking when i said that sorry if u thought i was mad because i wasnt mad at all.
Just thought id clean that up.
Well, all of the models have Dean going into the Gulf now. Last night there was still one having it veer north toward the east coast, but now there's a lot more consistency.
Here's a link for info on the track:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=04
It is too far out to even make a decent guess where it will end up and how strong it will be. If it hits Haiti or Puerto Rico the mountains down there usually tear these things up. If it goes over no land and through the straits of Hispanola or around the Dominican Republic etc then we could deal with a monster.
Hey Ian...if this storm heads to Houston we'll definitely take you up on that...and of course will help out in any way we can with reports, etc.
I'm really hoping for northeast Mexico...it's relatively unpopulated, but would make for an easy intercept for us. Win win situation for all.
Meanwhile, James Reynolds is heading to Taiwan to intercept Super Typhoon Sepat. Maximum sustained winds have increased to over 120 knots with that storm...and it has a pinhole eye. He'll be emailing updates from the storm.
Hey, hey... How is everyone today?
Ahoj James and good luck!
The Tropical Outlook on TWC this morning showed Dean heading directly through Corpus Christi, and continuing into Texas. No doubt Connor is happy!
Good luck James! Can't wait to see the pics!
REED. I'm coming over to look at Dean projections.
Accully considering me and connor live withen 30 minutes of each other, unless it moves in fast, and its a CAT4 or 5, All we will get is rain, any maybe just 30-40 MPH Winds, which we get on a normal fall day..
Take me up on it Reed, I'll be glad to help. Where do you live David?
Take me up on it Reed, I'll be glad to help. Where do you live David?
Hi Brady.
Keeps your eyes open today man. You never know.
Good man, Matt.
It's good to clear up those misunderstandings like you just did.
Cyberspace ain't meatspace, that's for sure!
Its kinda wierd because like right after that i had to go to work and didnt post anything so i think Rene thought i was pissed off and just left but i had to go to work.
That's why it's always a good idea, when you're joking, to add a visual clue so the other guy knows you're just fartin around... like add a :-) , or a :-D , or a hehe, or a LOL (laughing out loud), or a ROFL (rolling on floor laughing) or a LMAO (laughing my arse off) or a GDILSOITIJFSMP! (don't ask)
ya not so sure about the last one Joe.
this is what I've been hearing!! What's your take on this afternoon Andrew??
Bleck, Brady the SPC just really lowered the chances. Oh well.
Bummer!!