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Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening!

Posted At: August 13, 2007 @ 5:23 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Towering cumulus have persisted for the last few hours along the warm front in central MN, where surface-based CAPE values have been analyzed in the 6000-7000 J/kg range.   However, the cap remains very strong across the region, with the 18z sounding in Minneapolis indicating a 102F convective temperature.  A subtle upper disturbance will be moving across the region, so there still is a very small possibility for initiation.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued the following MD for a tornado watch to be issued shortly:

Based on recent trends in satellite imagery, as well as analysis of the 18z soundings, surface-based initiation seems highly unlikely this evening.  Surface convergence is very weak across the warm front, and 700 mb temperatures are rising above 15C.  However, if storms initiate, they will rapidly become supercellular and will have a high potential of producing tornadoes, given the highly sheared and unstable warm sector.  Here is the satellite image from just before 5:30 pm CDT:

Entry Comments

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brian Martin | August 13, 2007 @ 5:35 PM #

Heres hoping! Im still going to monitor this. Looks like an interesting day, I can feel something good.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By cnote | August 13, 2007 @ 5:43 PM #

You should have been there brooo!!!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Jonathan | August 13, 2007 @ 6:19 PM #

Yes..Minnesota is looking very unpredictable right now! Let's hope for some tornadoes!

Also, here in Winnipeg there is apparently a risk for severe weather from now into the night. Here's to hoping for somethingin MN and MB!

Jon

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 6:26 PM #

Hey folks!! I just got home from work, what did I miss? alotta disappointment I see!! Its been hazy here all day!, It just rain for about 30 sec again!! our third longest rain this year!! jk Anything worth watching here???

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 6:28 PM #

see its funny thees alot of people in minny saying oh god there might be a tornado im scared to death omg... Then there us saying yeah bring on the tornadoes so we have something to do. I thought that would be funny

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By derek | August 13, 2007 @ 6:33 PM #

are you kidding me i live in winnipeg there are no clouds and it's sunny. also the weather network says nothing for us today. i don't think they'll be anything happening here today.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 6:35 PM #

this is true!! But why when warnings go out people think that the warnings are BS? People in Duluth believe that a tornado could never hit this town because of the lake and the hill!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 6:36 PM #

Whoa. I think we have some initiation just north of me.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By derek | August 13, 2007 @ 6:36 PM #

ok sorry, looks like we'll get some rain but nothing severe.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 6:39 PM #

Brady- it doesnt happen for a long time and people start to think that the town is tornado free. i dont know i saw a video online and tornado sirens were going off and people were calling in saying can somebody turn off those damn sirens. No relizing there was an actual tornado coming.

Derek- There was a severe thunderstorms watch to the north that just ended.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By caleb | August 13, 2007 @ 6:39 PM #

TWC said thay a possable dereacheo could happen. that means that SPIN-UPS that can pack a punch! exspeshaly on the northern and SW end!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 6:40 PM #

i think your right andrew

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 6:42 PM #

I see this Andrew, its gonna go just south of me! should I go chase it???

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Rene | August 13, 2007 @ 6:43 PM #

Can someone explain to me on GR3 what are the orange rings, red rings, green triangles..ect

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 6:44 PM #

hey im no expert at this but i say why not. And if u do please update when u get back

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 6:44 PM #

Rene, the rings are mesos (sign of mesocyclone) and the green triangles are hail signatures

Go to View and then click "show tips" and then you can hover over the symbols to get the readings on them

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 6:45 PM #

Hey Rene, We missed ya! They mean giant chit clouds headin my way! hehe

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Tim | August 13, 2007 @ 6:46 PM #

New watches for west of winnipeg are up now

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By caleb | August 13, 2007 @ 6:46 PM #

YESSSS PLEASE but the main thret is hail, wind, and TORNADOES!!!! 10% or more= EF2+

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Tim | August 13, 2007 @ 6:48 PM #

I'm heading mobile.. looks like a cluster of storms is forming northwest of Winnipeg.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 6:48 PM #

I gotta wait another 10 min so I can get some juice in my crappy cam! otherwise Im out like a fat kid in dodgeball!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By caleb | August 13, 2007 @ 6:49 PM #

Any tornadic activaty forecasted tim?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 6:49 PM #

Brady you could go chase that big bad boy to your west/southwest. It has a 70 dbz hail core... baseballs.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 6:52 PM #

I have no radar once I leave!! I need a nowcaster!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Rene | August 13, 2007 @ 6:52 PM #

Hey Brady, I'm findig it hard to get on the puter now.

for your sake, I will pray to the all mighty Weather god to send you the good stuff

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 6:52 PM #

Agh. I am not going to be at the puter much longer. Just found out I have to go out tonight...

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By derek | August 13, 2007 @ 6:54 PM #

tim, i'm wondering where do you get your info?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 6:54 PM #

does sturgeon lake sound good for a start?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 6:58 PM #

if anyone wants to help a guy my # is 218-269-0657
I gotta fly!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 7:00 PM #

Brady it's headed toward the Hinckley area. Looks like it's gonna go right over Mille Lacs.

It's elevated, but definitely a hailer.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 7:01 PM #

Gotchya chief!! Aight! I'm gone!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 7:18 PM #

Special Agent Brady007 has now deployed! His mission, to get hailed upon!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 7:27 PM #

Im at a friends house on the way just catchin the current sitrep!! Hopefully I can still catch up!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 7:27 PM #

Joe, I wish I could show you what a strong cap looks like. There's stuff trying to go up all over the place and it just goes splat when it gets to a certain height.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 7:28 PM #

Yeah Brady you're going to have to beat that horse to make it, it's going more southeast now

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 7:29 PM #

Brady if it keeps going like it is it's going to go right over me!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 7:31 PM #

Hard to say, Brady, but like Andrew said, maybe Hinckley or south of there would be a good place to wait for the lightning/hail, then go by your eyeballs

http://i13.tinypic.com/5xo5fdw.jpg

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 7:32 PM #

Anyone ever seen a 76dbz hail core before, lol?

That thing is intense.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By brandon | August 13, 2007 @ 7:33 PM #

whats up everyone, back from camping...i need to get back into the loop here!!!!...any hoses or supercells to report over the weekend???!!! you guys in minnesota get any action? ive heard that hurricane flossie might swipe the hawaiian islands and TD4 should make tropical storm status soon...

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 7:41 PM #

Not much Brandon... there was an EF1 by Stump Lake, ND on Friday but I don't know of anyone who filmed it. As you can see by the blog entry, MN could look good if something can break the cap

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By brandon | August 13, 2007 @ 7:42 PM #

its looking like hinckley is definetly about to get some excitement...!!! large trees blown over from 80+mph wind gusts and golf ball sized hail covering the ground reported in cass county...76dbz is nuts andrew...!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By brandon | August 13, 2007 @ 7:43 PM #

thanks joe...! i have a cold beer for you, but you'd have to come to alberta to get it!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 7:46 PM #

Yeah Andrew, it's kinda sorta headed right at Anoka, isn't it. Maybe this is your night - for hail damage! Yay!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Greg | August 13, 2007 @ 7:47 PM #

Hey guys looks like the cap might break soon!! i live in southern wisconsin i hope we have some wind tongiht anyone think that could happen

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 8:02 PM #

Hey that cell is heading straight for Minny i think. but if the cap can break man this could be good

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 8:03 PM #

That's some big hail coming your way Andrew, POSH = 100%, 4.00"

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 8:05 PM #

Arg. Don't say that Joe.

I have a crop of potted garden mums sitting out in the field at the greenhouse where I work.

Praying...

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 8:05 PM #

Im still trying to find how to see the cap readings can anybody help me out please

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Celery | August 13, 2007 @ 8:16 PM #

Matt, here's a decent "guide" from Jon Davies for cap thresholds. If you get initiation with 700 mb temps higher than those listed, it probably won't matter anyway... as storms will be hella high-based and likely non-tornadic.

http://members.cox.net/jondavies1/700mbTcap/700mbTcap.htm

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By derek | August 13, 2007 @ 8:24 PM #

well this weather network is really crap they forecasted no anything but now we got a severe thundrstorm watch. finally get some action here again.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Jonathan | August 13, 2007 @ 8:24 PM #

You think a core of 76dbz is intense? What do you think about 80dbz?

http://tinyurl.com/2tzj4e

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 8:30 PM #

ya ive never seen anything like that before Jonathon.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 8:32 PM #

Not to state the obvious Andrew but I would expect Anoka County to get the official severe t-storm warning in the next 15-30 min

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By greg | August 13, 2007 @ 8:37 PM #

is it just me or is this storm dieing out?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 8:38 PM #

Hey Andrew, what's the lightning situation looking like? Or is there still too much daylight to really say?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 8:43 PM #

Can't talk taking pics running for cover all of the above

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 8:45 PM #

Guys, there are SIX (6) TVS on that cell now! 8-O ... (and still no tornado warning)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 8:45 PM #

There it is Andrew...

843 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHISAGO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 838 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF RUSH CITY TO 12 MILES
WEST OF NORTH BRANCH TO 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANDOVER...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSH CITY...
NORTH BRANCH...
EAST BETHEL...
LINDSTROM...
CHISAGO CITY...
WYOMING...
ANDOVER...

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 8:47 PM #

Damn Joe u said there should be a warnings in 15-30 minutes and like 15 minutes later the warning comes out.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 8:49 PM #

So Heidi that means theres alot of rotation with this storm if if correct.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 8:53 PM #

Joe has special powers. =-D

SPC has reports of this hail coverin the ground in Morrison Co., up to 2 1/4" in one location, plus 60 MPH winds reported.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Jonathan | August 13, 2007 @ 8:53 PM #

Even more bad news.....the storms appear to be splitting...now with two cores...the stromger heading in the direction of the Twin Cities!

What I'm worried about is what could happen if the storm does split and this dangerous core becomes discreet enough...

Jon

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 8:53 PM #

You're under tornado warning now, Andrew... ya lucky guy!

852 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 851 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR ELK RIVER...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST FRANCIS...
CEDAR...
ANDOVER...
EAST BETHEL...
HAM LAKE...

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 8:54 PM #

Heads up along I94 towards Alexandria/St. CLoud. I wouldn't be surprised to have a tornado warning on that stuff going up in 15-30 minutes if it stays discreet

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 8:55 PM #

I think Andrew might be away from his computer after seeing that Joe and yelling at his wifes and kids to go downstairs.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 8:56 PM #

Well, the name alone would seem to suggest that (TVS= tornado vortex signature), however there have not been very prominent couplets on the velocity scans. I think the TVS icon is having a spaz, really. There was one area that looked like it may have been legit, but not 6! :-D

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Jonathan | August 13, 2007 @ 8:56 PM #

ALERT!!!!ALERT!!!!!!

WFUS53 KMPX 140152
TORMPX
MNC003-141-140215-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0026.070814T0152Z-070814T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
852 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 851 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR ELK RIVER...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST FRANCIS...
CEDAR...
ANDOVER...
EAST BETHEL...
HAM LAKE...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 4545 9359 4532 9367 4517 9315 4539 9307
4541 9348

$$

JPR

WATCH OUT IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH!!!!!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Jonathan | August 13, 2007 @ 8:57 PM #

Sorry! :D I'm late on the post!!! oops......

Jon

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 8:57 PM #

Andrew ... he has a shelter, right?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 8:58 PM #

I hope so.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 8:58 PM #

The town of Anoka itself is just south of the actual warning area in Anoka County... so Andrew can just keep takin them pics!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:00 PM #

There has at times been a noticable hook with this tornado-warned storm on the DBZ, but still, the velocity is not showing anything that serious. I noticed that on the mid-level scan it was giving false returns, so hopefully there isn't some funny businsee going on that's not giving us the correct reading.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:02 PM #

Are we sure he lives in-town. Cause it could be a little sketchy if he was too far north of Anoka-proper. He has kids, too, right? :-/

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 9:04 PM #

Ya i think he said he have 4. i could be wrong

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 9:06 PM #

Nothing to worry about in my humble and uneducated opinion. It's just a warning that the storm is "capable" of producing a tornado, and the storm doesn't look too bad in my totally inexperienced opinion (in other words, don't listen to me)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:07 PM #

Okay. Andrew is going to have a story to tell. Lets hope he can tell us soon (as in, lets hope he doesn't lose power or worse!)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:08 PM #

There is a weak couplet right on top of Anoka now!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:12 PM #

Hey, are your hail icons working? Mine are not, which seems completely weird. I mean, I can't believe there is no hail with this thing.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 9:14 PM #

I was wondering that too, Heidi, but the hail icons are working for me on that other system that is following it from the WNW, so maybe the lunker hail is gone at this time(?)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 9:16 PM #

Man ive said this before i dont have the wife/girlfriend problem. Well is not a problem but when it comes to storm chasing its a problem. But instead of the girlfriend i have my mother to stop me. So ya the girlfriend/wife thing will happen soon and maybe the mother thing will stop before that time.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 9:18 PM #

And the tornado warning has been lifted.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Jonathan | August 13, 2007 @ 9:20 PM #

Hail must not be detecting in these storms..as on tv they're saying hail is coating all over(up to 3 1/2 inches deep apparently) and some plows were actually called in to clear it off of roads. KARE11 and WCCO4 reported this....one reason why it's good to get local american channels in canada! :D

Jon

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 9:22 PM #

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA


We were IN THE NOTCH!!! I re3alize it wasn't much of a notch, but it WAS rotation!!!! THe fricking notch went right over my head!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Breathe deep... deep breathing... sideways rain, little hail, rain coming from all directions, cgs, wind... pine smell in the air outside, trees down

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 9:23 PM #

wheeeeeee

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Tim | August 13, 2007 @ 9:23 PM #

Haha.. yeah Canada's was a bust.. was watching the clouds go up but they didn't have enough juice or the wind was too strong and they were stringing out after 20,000 feet or less.

Derek, on days I know there's a risk of severe storms I just leave my radio scanner on 162.550 (Winnipeg's Weather Radio frequency). If there's a watch it does the emergency alert chirp/tone usually within 4 minutes or less.. much easier then checking the website every 10 minutes.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 9:24 PM #

now im trying to determine if thats excitement or scared to death.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By derek | August 13, 2007 @ 9:24 PM #

hey have any of u winnipegers took any pictures of the sky, it looks pretty awesome like black, i would but my stupid camera is broken.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:27 PM #

I saved the images from DBZ and velocity if you don't have them, Andrew!

Where did you go? Do you have a shelter or were you in a closet? Could you hear the sirens go off?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 9:29 PM #

Heidi are you going to post them later???

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Matt | August 13, 2007 @ 9:32 PM #

well i am outta here for today but ill be back tomorrow and good to ur ok Andrew

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 9:36 PM #

Ah, I have a siren in front of my driveway... we hard it lol.

Kids and wife in a small room in the basement while I watched radar.

And yes, I wanna see those velocity images!!

Just talked to Travis he's just north of here he just got cored by marbles and sounds like he's stopped because of a road closure- trees down maybe?

Trying to de-tox the quart of adrenaline that is in my system right now...

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:38 PM #

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/apacheroams.jpg

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/anokastormdbz2.png

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/anokastormvelocity1.png

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 9:39 PM #

plus you've got that next system potentially coming your way in ~1 hr or so..

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 9:47 PM #

Geez Andrew, you lucked out... the part of the storm that went over you is now showing 3.00" hail again

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 9:48 PM #

Thanx Heidi!!

Yeah Joe I'm keeping my eye on that one, Travis is headed towards it too.

Reed, how do you get so close to the naders without just completely having a nervous breakdown??? Lol!

Ah well, I'm sure our little adventure tonight wasn't much but there definitely was rotation in the clouds, and horizontal rain from all directions.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 9:49 PM #

*well it was, a minute ago, now it's gone... hmm starting to wonder about this hail icon stuff

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Jim in New Ulm,MN | August 13, 2007 @ 9:50 PM #

What a waste of time, not a drop of rain and it sure does not look like any is coming this way. The drought is seriously not going to give in here. Charged up all the batteries for nothing I guess. Time for bed, have a long day ahead of me tomorrow.

Stay safe all, don`t take any chances in the dark please.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:53 PM #

Andrew, that velocity image doesn't look like much, I know, but you can tell there was that little area there just above Anoka! It just popped up as it went over! You can frame it if you want! ;-)

Was there a roar or anything with it?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 9:59 PM #

62 MPH winds reported at Elk River, MN (just up the road from Andrew) and 1.75" hail covering the ground at Ham Lake (just east of Andrew) with estimated 65 MPH winds!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 10:04 PM #

No Roar (other than me yelling "NO FRICKING WAY" when the sirens went of)

But lots of wind. I would estimate close to 60. The freaky thing was it was from 3 directions in the span of 1 minue. If you've never seen completely horizontal rain before let me tell you it is wild.

And we lucked out BIG TIME on the hail! Golfballs just up the road.

My basement's flooded. #$#@#!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 10:09 PM #

I saw horizontal rain last September, when there was a tornado on the ground 1/2 mile up the road from my house. Like an idiot, I was busy looking out the windows at that time! This was a few hours before Reed & Joel got their Ozark tornado footage (we had about 3 rounds that day!)

Your basement is gonna be in for it again in a little bit. :-/

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Heidi | August 13, 2007 @ 10:11 PM #

You guys take care tonight - I gotta get off of here. Can I have some of your rain, Andrew?! :-D

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 10:18 PM #

Have a good one Heidi.

No I'll keep my rain we need it bad.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 10:19 PM #

Can you see that new storm to your west yet, Andrew? lightning?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 10:31 PM #

Yeah. The part of it that is about to hit me doesn't look that bad. But lots of lightning and more RAIN, which I'll take.

Did you see some of the pics on KARE11 news that are going up? Holy hail!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 10:36 PM #

Oops and wcco too. Big hail.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By TravisMN | August 13, 2007 @ 10:40 PM #

Just got home, was in the northeat metro near Blane, awesome storm. Came up to a road closed sign, wind picked up the sign and slammed it into the front of my truck, marble sized hail covered the ground, downed trees, estimated winds around 70mph.. took some video of lightning aluminated shelf cloud before all hell broke lose, curious to see how it came out but i doubt it will be very clear... scared the shit out of my dad though lol..

Waiting for round 2 which should be to my house in the next 20 mins.... fun times :)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By AJ | August 13, 2007 @ 10:40 PM #

Hey everyone. Sounds like I missed an exciting night, with Andrew screaming and all ;) If only I was on earlier...

btw, flooded basements suck! Been there.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Mike R | August 13, 2007 @ 10:40 PM #

A friend told me that he had several hail smashed cars from a storm come in late September of 2005 so it ain't over till the fat snowflakes fall.

A tally of the storms I recorded in my town for the last 3 years.

http://img475.imageshack.us/img475/9263/thunderstorms2005200620nu7.jpg

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 10:44 PM #

Travis good to see you made it home. Congrats you are my first "nowcast" ever, lol (Not that tonight needed much nowcasting we had about a 50 mile target area lol)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 10:44 PM #

Hey! Im back!! apparently I missed big time!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By TravisMN | August 13, 2007 @ 10:45 PM #

Hey Andrew I really appreciate your help, I called him as he was running down to the basement lol... :)

Next time youll have to come with me.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 10:48 PM #

The men from Minny did good tonight... clap, clap

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By AJ | August 13, 2007 @ 10:49 PM #

Hey, I'd definitely need a nowcaster if I had a 50 mile target area. lol. In some places, that's a pretty big area to cover. And yes Travis, it's good that the sign didn't come into your windshield.

Brady, I've been gone all night too. I missed out :(

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 10:50 PM #

TravisMN you got some heavy rain coming your way in Plymouth

1046 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1046 PM CDT...RADAR DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. THE STORMS PRODUCING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WERE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS
TO 27 MILES WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BROOKLYN PARK...
GOLDEN VALLEY...HOPKINS...MAPLE GROVE...MINNEAPOLIS...PLYMOUTH AND
RICHFIELD.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By AJ | August 13, 2007 @ 10:52 PM #

Wow, those storms are moving really fast for rain dumpers... that's odd in most places.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 10:52 PM #

Aj, lol I meant the storm was so big he could have been just about anywhere and got hail and wind.

Good thing I didn't "vector" him down to Shoreview I think we would have a trashed vehicle.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By brandon | August 13, 2007 @ 10:52 PM #

you boys in MN are in for some more action! its looked like a bow-echo on some radar scans...was there a touchdown in the twin cities area? or was rotation detected on radar?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By AJ | August 13, 2007 @ 10:55 PM #

Andrew, I am jealous ;) A storm that big full of all the good stuff, and I miss it :( Oh well...

That's nice of you, not to send into the huge sized hail core. lol.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 10:56 PM #

It was radar, Brandon, although I can verify there was "some" rotation in the clouds (nothing insane).

I've seen a lot of doppler tor warnings like that on the edges of big MCSs, I'm just guessing it wasn't much of a big deal but VERY unexpected!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 10:57 PM #

Oh man Travis you are in for some serious CG's, we are getting absolutely pounded up here by lightning.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 10:59 PM #

there's a meso symbol over Anoka right now andrew... gettin any squirrelly winds or anything?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By brandon | August 13, 2007 @ 11:03 PM #

right on andrew...i remember some blog posts from a month or two ago from you saying how you were jonesing for some storms...you get any pictures!? ive seen the ones on wcco and it sure dumped a $hit load of hail...

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:05 PM #

Man!!! that lightning is intense!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 11:10 PM #

Joe I think the big MCS's get a lot of shear markers all over the place on them and it doesn't mean much. Someone who knows more about it could explain it better. Nothing much is going on here except welcome rain.

I wish I could have got pics tonight but you wouldn't have seen anything. Pitch black. I tried to get a couple vids of lightning but I don't think they turned out too well. I did finally get my storm though!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:11 PM #

Andrew, Before I left I seen Hardcore rotation or something on GR3! I wuz dumb and picked up my buddy! I decided to follow his advice and turn off 35 on 23 and double back to Duluth figuring we might have out flanked the storm... boy were we wrong!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 11:14 PM #

Well Brady at least yer truck is still intact, lol. Did you see the pics on wcco of the hail? Amazing. Not only the big stuff but in Blaine they had 8 inches of it on the ground!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By AJ | August 13, 2007 @ 11:15 PM #

Andrew, how big was the hail in most places? Sounds like it was pretty nasty...

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:15 PM #

it sounds like we're about to get bombed!! finally!!!!
I coulda really used some help on the road, but ah well!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 11:18 PM #

Sorry Brady, I missed your earlier post with your phone # on it... was a little preoccupied for a while.

AJ- check it out.

http://wcco.com/slideshows/local_slideshow_225220937/view?slide=8

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:23 PM #

Its cool Andrew!! Maybe next time!! Yeah... lightning... OMG!! wow!! worth the trip to Hinckley and back!! I swear I saw a funnel! didnt last long... but I know what I saw!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By AJ | August 13, 2007 @ 11:25 PM #

Wow, that's awesome Andrew! I only remember one time ever seeing the ground look like snowfall because of hail. Crazy!

I bet insurance companies will be filling out claims on car windows and houses.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Andrew | August 13, 2007 @ 11:26 PM #

Excellent night all the way around (Can anyone tell we were hard up for storms here, lol?)

If there's anything to see in the morning I'll get some pics of damage. Now, I am going to bed to sleep LONG and HARD.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:26 PM #

One thing we know for sure!!... tv.net has it's MN back That's 4 sure!! GJ guys!! let's keep Joel and Reed proud of us!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:31 PM #

I didnt see any damage, but leaves all over the streets so... there must have been some good wind!! a few branches too!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 11:32 PM #

Yeah that worked out great... the two guys who went out on the road got some action, and the guy who stayed home (Andrew) had the storms come to his doorstep!

My [virtual] chase log -
Miles: 0
Tornadoes: zilch
Funnels: zip
Supercells: nada
Wallclouds: none

but it was fun

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:35 PM #

Yeah Joe , I shoulda stayed home!! lol
P.S. those pics I sent you last week where from my home!! figures huh?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Joe Surfer | August 13, 2007 @ 11:38 PM #

Home cookin is the best. If I had been in the midwest this weekend I would have gotten all excited and drove up there anyway. TV.net made the right call to stay home!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By AJ | August 13, 2007 @ 11:41 PM #

The only way I would have dropped everything and headed to Minny is if the SPC gave a concrete chance of twisters. Otherwise, I'll leave it to the fine residents :)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:44 PM #

If i had a good cam, I would have a ton of good lightning footage!!
btw, what ever happened to Joel and or Reed nowcasting for us?? I haven't seen a blog from them since I got home from work!!! Prob busy with the tropical storm I take it?!?!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Brady MN | August 13, 2007 @ 11:54 PM #

I tried and I was close!! I hope I didn't let TV.net down!!
I'll be more prepared next time!! promise!! =)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By TravisMN | August 14, 2007 @ 12:00 AM #

Gee I sure am glad I dident go out to Wilmar, New Ulm, Hutchensen, all that BS I was talkin about earlier... what a waste of time that would have been... I would have been pissed. This last storm was just as cool as the first one only I watched this one off my pourch, not as strong of winds as the storm an hour or two earlier when I was up in a field up in Blaine, but alot of marble sized hail that must have lasted 20 mins and the lightning with this second storm was unbelievable!!
Too bad a storm couldent fired around 5 this afternoon, with the sheer and instability that was in place a big tornado would have been likely. I guess what is bad for a few people is a good thing for MANY others :)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By AJ | August 14, 2007 @ 12:01 AM #

Well people, I'm off to catch some ZZZZZZZ's. Hopefully, I can make it to the action sooner next time :) Good night, and don't have too much fun without me ;)

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By TravisMN | August 14, 2007 @ 12:02 AM #

Ya Brady, everytime I go out to chase a storm I learn something new that better prepares me for next time.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Cors | August 14, 2007 @ 12:07 AM #

sup guys...just got home ...any action?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Cors | August 14, 2007 @ 12:16 AM #

hey joe surfer you still out there?

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By greg | August 14, 2007 @ 12:19 AM #

dang that storm in southern wisconsin is starting to weaken its about another 30min from my house cmon redevlop!!!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Reed | August 14, 2007 @ 12:25 AM #

I bet that was an insane lightning show.

I see there were a few tornado warnings...does anyone know of any reports?

We're keeping a close eye on the new TD! The GFS forecast has verified anywhere from northeast Mexico to Long Island, but all strengthen the storm into a hurricane in a few days.

Good chase today everyone!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Cors | August 14, 2007 @ 12:28 AM #

Long Island..........AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Cors | August 14, 2007 @ 12:31 AM #

to be honest ..I thought it might break up when it hits cuba?! but lol wot do I know

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By Ezra | August 14, 2007 @ 3:46 AM #

Reed you told me to give you a holler when school started and i am trying to study my math now since im terrified of all the math im about to take but anyway id appreciate it if you would lemme know some stuff concerning how you chase...i have a brand new laptop i just bought and that's it...should i get grlevel3? what kind of gps is good? anyway if you see this please shoot me an email at ezra.weygant-1@ou.edu and it will be greatly appreciated.

Initiation unlikely, but possible along the warm front in MN this evening! Comment Posted By PCM | August 14, 2007 @ 10:26 AM #

This is a little late, but here are several photos of the severe thunderstorms that moved through the Grand Forks, ND, area on Monday afternoon. They produced a couple of rotating wall clouds and some golf ball-sized hail.

http://picasaweb.google.com/GrandForker2020/GrandForksAreaStorms

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