News DetailTornadoes likely tomorrow in MN!
Posted At: August 12, 2007 @ 11:47 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A potent shortwave trough embedded in northwesterly flow atop a huge summer anticyclone will bring significant severe weather chances from Fargo, ND ESE to Minneapolis, MN tomorrow (Monday). Shown below are some selected forecasts from the Sunday morning WRF:
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Yes tomorrow looks very nice in Minny and are you guys chasing this one for sure???
Have you guys ever chased in MN before?
Hehe! Yeah, I think I will!!
Andrew, Are ya still singinand dancin
?? hehe
THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
FAIRLY HIGH...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES. AND...BENEATH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY STRONG
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS
WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG IS STILL STRONG...AND LIKELY WILL
REMAIN SO UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. the spc also says that a mid level warming will cause a cap for the storms!
$50 says Lake Superior kills these storms too!!
Why is it when storms reach the lake they seem to peter to nothing In past years I would see storms build up over the lake, but this year... =(
Man Brady i get the samething with Lake Huron. Storm die of that lake and then they get to me and there crap storms. Anyways im out i gotta work today still like 2 in the morning but i be watching tomorrow. Cya L8ter guys
Definitely looks like the Twin Cities have some high chances of seeing some action atleast if you go by the WRF. Best of luck tomorrow.
Well, here it is. Our August setup. Hope we don't disappoint fellas, although the really rough stuff can stay away from my house, thank you!
The Red River valley is awesome chase territory. It'll get more challenging as you head east across the state into the woods.
Hope we don't disappoint!
Now we're talkin! Deploy, deploy, deploy!
Hey Andrew, great photos you posted, who is this li'l cutie?
http://s135.photobucket.com/albums/q127/drewsroo/?action=view¤t=S5030222.jpg
With Brady, Andrew, Travis, and Reed/Joel on the hunt tomorrow we should get something good
Hey Joe,
Yeah i realized too late I posted my entire album... duh.
That's my youngest girl.
I did find something cool in the program, btw, in case you haven't stumbled on it yet. If you keep the warnings window and the storm-attributes window open (under the windows tab), then when a warning or storm pops up in the window, you can doubleclick on it to move your radar to that location. Also right-clicking on any warning in the warnings window gives you the text. fwiw
Hey thanks,
I'm thinking that might come in handy tomorrow.
hey guys not BIG of a tornado thret but still a 5% thret at the most 2% at the least
I like the storm attributes window because it gives you a breakdown of all ongoing cells, ranked by severity.
Also if you use four-panel (under "windows") you can have four different views of the same cell, such as base reflectivity, velocity, echo tops, rainfall, or whatever ya want.
What do you mean SPC had nothing on it? They had their convective outlooks available two days ago, and it was right there.
TravisAugMN are you the same as TravisMN? Just trying to keep the travises straight.
Chase'n'Roll guys! May the supercell be with you. Stay safe.
I guess what I meant was, are you also this Travis from Minny who has been posting here for awhile? (maybe not, if you just got the link last night)
Posted By TravisMN | August 9, 2007 @ 1:14 PM #
OH DAMN!!! Im likin SPC new day 2 outlook for tomarrow... its definitally looking like a chase day for me!!
Posted By TravisMN | August 10, 2007 @ 9:29 AM #
Reed, if you were chasing this event, where do you think the best target area would be? I dont know if I will go or not, I will probably wait till around noon to decide and see how things go.
Posted By TravisMN | August 10, 2007 @ 5:23 PM #
The large and extremely dangerous wedge tornado is in south central North Dakota. USA!! USA!! LOL...
Joe, you'd be in high demand as a fact-checker! That always cracks me up how you come up with stuff BAM BAM BAM! :-D
So Reed and Joel are coming to the land of 10,000 skeeter bites? Dont forget the bug spray!!
well now we have two Travises from Minnesota. Nothin wrong with that! Man i sure wish i was in Minnesota right now too. Dang
Still only 1 Brady though!! Hehe
Tornado MAY happen! Were getting Alot of it in Omaha Right now! *5:35 PM*
Very moist, humid, loads a rain, and ive spotted 3 funnels rotating, Great chance i think.
Hi to all... I am new to posting on here. I have been reading a few of the chats on TV.net for months now and following the website a lot... I'm a huge weather fan. 24, live in Minneapolis. I was thinking about getting some enhanced radar software for my computer. I have seen people talking about GRL 3...I think it is called... how is SwiftWX? Any thoughts? They all seem quite pricey... I suppose they do quite a lot, and might be worth it. Thanks for the feedback...
Unfortunately I have to work tomorrow afternoon, but I will have a distracted eye to the sky. Seems we have been missed this year near the Twin Cities, except for the last couple nights... I am looking forward to some excitement.
Gentlemen, tommorow has me very concered we could be looking at a tornado outbreak.
Jetstream coming in from the Northwest at 80-90 MPH
Winds 40-50 Coming in from the South and Southwest
Converging over the MSP-St Paul area. Gentlemen, We need to watch this VERY CLOSLY.
Bo Scaife won't save you from my devastating onslaught of Michael Jenkins and Heath Miller!
Reed I'm sure you're on the road but update us when you have time.
Is this going to be early discrete cells producing naders in western/nw MN and then another giant MCS? How do you see it going down?
My camera's ready.
Bo Cole I think most people hanging out here are using the GRlevel3 program.
Corey, has the team deployed yet?? You going on this one?
Sounds like someone had a fantasy draft ... mine is this Friday. :-D
There have been no rotating funnel clouds here in Omaha. There isn't even a tornado watch issued for us. What storm are you looking at Blake?
Thanks for the input. What is the difference with the GRlevel2 and 3? Do you need 2 to run 3? or does 3 have the same stuff as 2, in addition to some more features?
Anyone have any feedback on a decent GPS unit to plug into the laptop to use with the programs?
Thanks.
Man i am so jealous of all you in the northern plains...weve had nothing but torrential rains and high pressure consuming us in norman/okc for what seems like the last 2 months! does anyone know what all i need to buy if i have a laptop adn i want to get a live radar uplink on it(before november)? Im kinda dumb in that area.
Joe, it's probably going to be an evening departure. I'm going to try to go, I have to check if I'm going to be stuck behind the bar at work.
Bo, you don't need 2 to run 3. You can run 3 for a few weeks without buying it too. http://grlevelx.com
Have not tried GPS yet..
Cool, thanks Joe. Does 3 have everything that 2 does though? I was trying to find the differences on that site, and it just doesn't seem to clearly lay that out.
I'll have to try that trial.
I suppose any GPS that has USB for the computer would work...maybe im wrong.
I'm pretty sure that GR2 still doesn't support GPS, so you will definitely want to go with GR3. It does have a pulldown for GPS to let you select the COM port.
Looking around some more, Bo, apparently Level 2 brings in higher resolution data, and is geared toward the meteorologist who sits at home analyzing the data for research. Level 3 gives you GPS and all the neat little icons like hail, mesos, etc. that are geared toward chasing - that's why the stormchasers prefer Level 3. For storm chasing purposes Level 3 is the definite choice.
Go ask him Travis. The owners of this site have requested that the OWS stuff not be posted here, FYI.
Oh....alright. That makes sense. Thanks for pointing me in the right direction.
Reed - are you ready to leave yet? Be sure to let us all know when you depart, so we can watch the live tracker. Also - is there going to be a chat tomorrow?
Alright Guys!! Tomarrow is it.. I am going to try taking off from work at noon to head and heading slightly north possibailly around the St. Cloud area... what do you guys think about this location? Andrew are you going after this as well?
Travis with a wife and 4 kids right in the middle of the hatched area, I think I'll stay home and keep an eye on them. Besides from the looks of things I won't have to chase stuff it will chase me, lol.
Well, the way it looks I only have to go out to my parking lot
and watch the action fire up tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Have my batteries charged up for both camcorders and cameras. Watched some cool storms last night off to our
east last night that missed us completely. Good lightning
show though. Still working on the video.
Here's a flashing *news item*, never seen before in the history of storms. I'm the first to report this, so therefore I am Queen. Is everyone ready? Alright. Ahem:
MCS crossing SW IOWA at present time.
;-)
Ah, there's the real TravisMN. Good luck man! Bring us back some bodacious pics. Hopefully things will still look as good tomorrow!
Right on I hear ya... Its just tough to see cool stuff (tornado's ect.) in the city. I have also learned (like yesterday) chasing within city limits is nearly impossible and potentially dangerous (if cought in the wrong situation). What do you guys think the odds are of SPC upgrading this area to moderate risk come tomarrow? Tomarrow I wont nessessary be by a computer but if anybody would like to get ahold of me they can email me at Travis@Knowledgecomputers.net and I can reply via my blackberry.
Hey Jim, I liked your video a lot. You got probably the best audio of "The Roar" that I've come across! :)
TravisAUGMN where are you from in MN?
We're gearing up here in Norman ready to head out later tonight. We decided to go ahead and wait for the 0z model runs to come out to verify that it is worth the 14 hr trek and to determine whether to go up through central or western MN.
As of right now, it looks like there will be the potential for some strong tornadoes tomorrow. The big question mark, as is typical this time of year, will be the cap. 700 mb temps around 13 C are very tough for a parcel to break through. There will be a disturbance moving through that *should* provide the necessary lift to get storms going along the warm front stretched somewhere from the west-central part of MN to the SE corner of the state. Wind shear and CAPE will both be high tomorrow, so any storm that gets going and remains discrete will have the potential to produce a monster.
New model runs should be out in another hour or so, and I'll give another update. Reed is currently taking a nap so that he feels rested for the trip tonight.
BTW, since Reed hasn't posted anything about it yet, there is currently a disturbance in the Atlantic that could be a major hurricane moving into the gulf in the next 7-10 days. Conditions are favorable for the system to begin development in the next day or two.
Hope you guys have a safe drive up. Keep us us all filled in
with your info.
I`ll be at work most of the day, since I live there to. I just
hope the rain does not miss us again. Corn fields are so dry
here they could go up in flames real easy.
Hey Joel I saw that wave(hopefully soon to be depression) in the east atlantic...it's heading pretty much due west right now isn't it? now what will determine where it tracks to? and will it get pulled into the gulf and possibly hit the southeast or maybe texas? im clueless about hurricanes for the most part but i did notice how tight it already was and how much time it has to develop. best of luck!
If you go, hopefully you will have mobile internet with you so that you can keep us updated w/some blog comments!
Where did all the Manitoba posters disappear to in the last few days, anyway? Wonder if any of them are making the trip down
Reed and Joel are waiting for the evening model runs to make their decision, but they're definitely preparing to deploy. Unfortunately, it looks like I'm going to have to sit this one out; I just started a new job and can't find anyone to cover my shift tomorrow night.
I probably should have read the most recent comments before supplying redundant information. Joel, I need you to annoy Reed mercilessly while driving...he blatantly stole Kitna from me.
My money is on midnight tonight for a tropical depression from that East Atlantic disturbance, and maybe Tropical Storm Dean by the morning?????
It looks amazing on infrared. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
I will have to figure out my plan of attack here!
I can get to the cities and back on 1 full tank if I just go straight. I'll need to figure out how to stay in touch with the crew!! I don't have mobil Inet... but I do have a laptop, so that's a good start!!
Just make sure you check your serpentine belt!
http://www.severestudios.com/node/109/download
Hehe Joe!! I just put one on Friday!!
I had to do a JB weld job on my radiator too, but it's holding up good!!
LOL, lost my AC compressor on vacation back in early July. Heard this terrible noise and decided to let my AC take a break. Good thing I did. was fried. Repairmen said if I would have kept using it I would have had the same problems. One thing leads to another, only $786 latter all was well again.
Both my van and car are ready tomorrow. But I won`t be
chasing storms, just waiting for them to pass me by. Hopefully that is.
Thanks for the video Jim!
Good luck tomorrow...the evening models have the area of interest a little further south, closer to your area. We're definitely departing in a few hours for MN!
We'll have the tracker up and running once we're on the road.
YEE-HAW! :-D
And, please don't run over any armadillos on your way north tonight ... oh alright, I wouldn't want to take that away from anyone. Hit as many as you'd like!
- Catch us something nice & keep safe.
Good luck Reed and Joel, drive safe, be safe tomorrow and bring us back some vid. From the looks of it everything has been moved 100 miles south or so. Better chase territory for sure.
No no no... Don't say that! Say north 100mi!! North!!
Thanks Reed, if you are targeting the area, try the KULM
airport about mile away from and Walmart Super Center
across the road from it. Excellent viewing areas for storms
starting any direction. Shoot me an email if you show in the
area, I have a great parking lot for watching the action here.
Have seen many great storms that I never had a camera to
catch to.
Good luck guys! Catch us a big hose! Stay safe!!!!
Sorry Brady, lol. Looks like if you want to catch the action you're gonna have to drive that beast.
Big red x for Redwood Falls
Brady, just start out a little early and keep a nice easy 55 mph speed. They say miles per gallon goes down 20% at 75 mph
Andrew are you going to be around your computer tomarrow afternoon while this event unfolds? The reason I ask is, It looks like Im going to be takin my old man with me tomarrow out chasin... the best mobile radar Im going to have is the one I can pull up on my cell phone, which I can tell you is not very good. Im wonderin if you or maybe somebody might be able to give me some real time intel while im on the road... just wonderin..
I hear ya there Travis!! I'm sittin in the same boat!
After perusing through model data over the past 5 hours, we have reluctantly decided to sit the event out. The final determining factor was the 4 km wrf, which shows convection firing around 8 pm and quickly turning into an mcs, which would limit tornado potential.
With 700 mb temps in excess of 13 or 14 C, the chances for surface based convection in the late afternoon or early evening are close to zero. However, if a storm does fire, before 6 p.m or so. it will have a good chance of producing tornadoes.
We are still watching the tropical system in the Atlantic. Models continue to show a major hurricane in the gulf in 7 to 10 days, with a potential target of the Texas coastline. Stay tuned!
It's true...we backed out! The 4km WRF not breaking out precip until after 8:00 pm is very frightening..
If a storm can happen all hell will break loose though with7+ 0-1 km EHIs...Plus we need to prepare to chase the hurricane in about 10 days.
Travis, Andrew, etc if you're chasing tomorrow and need some data/nowcasting action give me call.
Hey Guys, I fully understand driving from OK to MN for an iffy situation, is a big commitment. If you guys happen to change your minds though in the morning and want to catch a fight to MSP, let me know you guys are more then welcome to roll with me.
Northern MN? Hills and trees, hills and trees son. I don't even chase up there.
Good call guys on not coming. Even if something does happen around 8 pm it will be almost dark anyway.
I'll keep an eye out for stuff going up and if I see it I'll post it here. And I'll be at the computer so if anyone chasing wants info let me know.
Hey...other Matt....where you from mate?
OK i know i ask this question a lot but where is it heading toward ???
is it CHICAGO???
anwer back please
Figures I'd get called into work today!! Figures!
Im still thinking St. Cloud area, cant really go to far north or northeast of there because of the dense forests. Am I right in assuming that these storms once they initiate will be on an SE or ESE heading?
Wow this setup is impressive indeed lol!!! Reed I hope your chasing this one cuz it may be ur last chance pal. I'm off to school tomorrow(sighs) oh well I had a terrific summer vacation. Again If I had a car I would be up there faster than you can say tornado!! hehe Just hope the cap doesn't turn this into a bust.
Anyone see that sell in northeast north dakota WOW its not a tornado warning but there looks to be some rotation in it, does anyone know why theres no tornado warning?
Greg, looking at the radar i can see that those storms are elevated still. With the main threats being Hail and damaging winds. As of right now there are a few MAJOR HAIL REPORTS on the SPC.
When i went to the Velocity scans, they didnt seem to indicate much rotation. Although they may be a few pockets of weak rotation.
Zack at the last minute Reed and Joel decided to say home for this one. Not sure the reason but ya there not going to chase it.
Tropical Depression FOUR!
Yes i just seen its very weak rotation, and now it looks like thers really no ration left in it, at first i thought this was going to be a classic supercell
They're not chasing!!!!!! Reed what is wrong w/ you!!?!! Last time you said you were not chasing look what you missed! Damn I was so ready for a new video.
Matt they decided not to chase cause initiation would be late.. and everything would congeal into an MCS.. Joel posted that late last night.
Now onto TD 4/Dean...I'm pretty sure the TV.net team will be all over this one.
Thanks i just read though the post and seen that. But anyways
oh so thats why.. hmmm I see. Oh well there is always a next time. And OMG is that tropical depression 4????
Hey JY, you are correct in that our attention has quickly turned to the future Dean. There is a good chance that this will become a major news story in the next few days as TD 4 strengthens and heads most likely toward the US gulf coast. I am sure you will be watching this one closely, JY.
Setups like today are very hard to predict. All of the ingredients are there for large tornadoes, however there is a strong cap in place. Convergence along the warm front is weak, so the chance of isolated supercells developing is limited. Again, if a storm goes, it could be major. We'll just have to wait about 8 more hours to see if we made the right decision/forecast.
Hey it kinda sucks most things are in place for some good storms but 2 or 3 things screw your chances. But there will be other days and lots of tornadoes before we all die. I hope.......
Hey Cors, welcome back!
Yep, thar she blows
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?5day#contents
I noticed that tops from these ND storms are beginning to make their way into western MN. Are these storms going to disipate once they get into MN due to the strongly capped enviorment with the cloud cover weaking our instability potential? Or will these storms explode once they get into area with the better heating and wind shear? Just wondering if anybody has an idea or opinion let me know... To me it looks like these storms are already weaking as they head towards the Fargo area.
Hey Jim in New Ulm,
I watched your video. I thought it was extremely cool, the way you've been filming the storms that wander over your home through the years. V. unique way to make a storm video. Nice choice of music too. I hope you can keep it up for years to come.
Even though Reed/Joel can't justify pulling the trigger on a 12-hour drive to get there (understandable... remember they would have to drive home too!) it looks like you may have a chance for some good footage today.
http://i14.tinypic.com/4opzfk4.jpg
Since Travis is local, hopefully he can get out there too. Brady? You got a long drive so I would understand if you stay put!
I think it was on yesterday's convective outlook FOR TODAY that I read that there was a "disturbance" expected to make its way across Minnesota that could help break the cap. Perhaps this mess moving out of ND into Minnesota is just that?? Looks auspicious.
I thought Brady was the disturbance that was predicted to make its way across Minnesota! (just kiddin bud, lol)
That mess in ND does look like it's workin its way down there
New spc outlook out. Not alot of change however it looks like things have shifted more slightly towards the SW.
Hi guys... I hope people who are currently on here read this. I am 15 but I have what people tell me increadible knowledge of the weather! Anyway there is a TD in the atlantic right TD Dean I believe. Well it is expected to have effect on the nations weather in the next 7 to 10 days. Well I'm pretty sure all of you are sick or about sick of this sweltering heat am I correct? Over the days I have been looking at models and other equipment to try to find anything to break this mega block high pressure, and finally I just realized that If TD Dean becomes a hurricane and moves towards the gulf It will have an effect on my weather at least. This could move more moisture and rain into my region destroying the high pressure system and since the high is effecting much of the u.s. it will allow for all of us to get a break. Hey this is just my mind running wild so tell me if I am a little out of this world lol.
Thanks Joe, my camcorders are charged up and cameras are ready. My son is really excited that we may see some wild weather tonight. I have much more to add to that old video now, just never get time to finish it.
Have some video of the super cell that created the tornado just south of us near Searles that the Twister Sisters caught live just a few hundred feet in front of them.
Have been working on a video with my footage of the super cell time compressed to show its development with
the Twister sisters video overlayed in a corner to compare.
Zack,
I know what you mean about the huge High... but those things are slow to move. I'm not sure where you live, but it's almost effecting most in the southeast/midwest.
TD# 4...soon to become Tropical Storm Dean, and possibly Hurricane Dean is a LONG way out. Over a week away. In the tropics.. the NHC 5 day forecast can be over 350 miles off. That is a huge forecast error.
Soon to be Dean will be something that folks living in hurricane prone areas all around the US need to watch. There are far too many uncertanties this far out, but the models are in agreement to move it west for the next few days.