News DetailRUC still forecasting initiation west of Minneapolis by 7:00 pm CDT!
Posted At: August 11, 2007 @ 5:52 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
The 21z RUC model has been consistently forecasting convective initiation west of Minneapolis between 6:00 and 7:00 pm. Tower cumulus in southwest and central MN have been persisting for the last few hours, and could develop into supercells as a subtle shortwave moves through the area. The low-level wind shear is maximized in southeast MN and western WI, so the storms would have to move into this area to have a chance at producing a significant tornado.
Calendar
Categories
Storms are initiating just west and northwest of Minneapolis, with tops already surpassing 50,000 feet!
A watch should be issued soon...I wouldn't be surprised if it were a tornado watch.
HEY! I wanted to be the first to say it! :-(
Meanie! ;-D
That Storm is about 20 miles to my WNW heading right for me!!
Just drove out and got a look at this storm, good looking storm already, beautiful, long flanking line, base is low, didn't see a wall cloud yet but I didn't get that close, Travis go for it, this thing could do it. I'd go after it but it is heading right for the cities and major traffic and I have relatives over tonight. Bsides there are towers absolutely everywhere trying to go up right over us so I think I'll stay put.
WHAT DO YOU THINK REED? Think this storm could do it if it gets a bit further south? It's got a hook and a tiny little couplet already...
Andrew, If you read the news post reed created, you will see that if it moves more Southeast, the dynamics are much more favorable for tornadoes, some large possible.
Well that's where it headed so something to watch for sure.
Pics from last night's cg barrage.
http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q127/drewsroo/picture-2.jpg
http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q127/drewsroo/picture-3.jpg
http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q127/drewsroo/picture-4.jpg
Possible Split!? I think it's splitting!
Cool.
Andrew, didn't the eastern part pop up, as opposed to separating from that first one? I was away from the computer for about 10 minutes so that's why I'm asking. It looked like the eastern part was a pop-up, though, from what I could tell...
SPC says: AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTERS REPORT POWER LINES BEING DOWNED BY STRONG WINDS IN THE HOWARD LAKE AND COKATO AREAS
Heidi I think you're right I haven't been watching the radar very close. Frickin relatives, lol.
The cells just west of Minneapolis look like they're gusting out and weakening...I'd say the new cell just to the east of Minneapolis has a chance if it can sustain itself.
If anything goes in southeast MN it will have a chance to produce a tornado as well.
By the time I got there it would be gone anyway!! I do have a full tank though... I don't wanna deal with cities traffic either!
The two cells firing about 50-60 miles north of here actually are looking better than what's overhead. They are awesome, I'm looking straight north at them and it's nice, hard convection. They will be moving in to the shaded area on the map Reed posted.
DR.Forbs of TWC said that there was 2 cells that wuz proudsing wind pushed hail in Minneapolis... prolly from rain cooled outflow! but they are weekaning.
Hey, nice pics Andrew. The first one was probably really loud, wasn't it?!
That MN storm was just toying with us. :-/
Hey, yesterday a bunch of us got going about what "The Roar" sounds like. Then a guy posted a link on the previous thread to a YouTube video he made. It's pretty cool, and he's also captured a VERY good example of "The Roar" if anyone wants to listen and see whether they think it sounds like a waterfall, a jet, or, um, (I guess I have to say it) the dreaded freight train (NOOOOO!!!!!!!), or something else.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdXXXc-bsqI
I think I'm gonna go follow them if i can get down there in time!! I just drove almost to Canada for pretty much nothing so... why not drive south!! hehe
I should prob skip I35 and go through WI????
I can't leave for another 15min anyway!
Heidi, the first one nearly gave me heart failure.
Thanks for the link.
The storm on the east side of Minneapolis may have had a hook for several scans...looks like it's cycling now. The couplet is weak on velocity, however.
LOL andrew one day I was watching a storm and i got in my drive way and saw one strike and BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM then I ran indoors like the flash!! the next day i found out it stuck a tree!! before that it was over 80 digrese. 40 MPH microbirst that is one of my favortest storm of the year SOFAR.
Blech these things are a letdown so far... sorry everybody hoped we could give you some action lol.
Remains to be seen what they do as they get further east...
The cell to the southwest of Minneapolis has overtaken its outflow boundary once again. It definitely has a chance to produce a tornado as it moves southeast into the more favorable environment! It looks incredible on Lacrosse radar, which is further away and scanning high in the storm. It's definitely a supercell. Andrew, Travis, etc are you guys on this??
Reed i think i know what u are talking about
http://weather.wcco.com/auto/wccoV2/Region/Midwest/2xRadar.html?gimg=http://llnw.radar.cbslocal.com/anim/wcco/radar2_anim.gif>itle=WCCO%20Animated%20Radar
Reed this cell has a HUGE outflow Boundary or gustfront!!
you're right caleb...nice cells going up in Wisconsin now too..looks like it's congealing into an MCS now.
So, is this thing going to turn into a MCS or what? :-/ It looks as though it would like to. I'd like some of that rain, though. Reed, can you make it rain here? Thanks.
HAHAHA!!!! Reed, you're like a minute ahead of me tonight! :-D
Reed the storm is still going slight rotation an the end of it!! i would not be surprised if there was a biref spin-up. if there was one it would be in the suthern part of MN, metro!
Sorry, I was out taking pics. No I won't chase anything at night but got a lot of nice mammatus and structure.
Storm down by Mantorville is all by itself, keep an eye on that one.
Mantorville what? MN,?
What's a TVS?
Mantorville, MN, just north of Rochester.
Joe a TVS= Tornado Vortex Signature, which is a big step up from a meso marker on grlevel. Means bad news, lol. Or good, however you look at it.
Joe TVS - Tornadic Vortex Signature. Doppler radar signature in the radial velocity field indicating intense, concentrated rotation - more so than a mesocyclone. Like the mesocyclone, specific criteria involving strength, vertical depth, and time continuity must be met in order for a signature to become a TVS. Existence of a TVS strongly increases the probability of tornado occurrence, but does not guarantee it. A TVS is not a visually observable feature
Thanks guys - the reason I asked was I swear there was one on the screen a few minutes ago, but now it's gone
Joe your very welcome!
Thoughts on the storm down by Rochester? Especially if the OFB I see on radar overtakes it?
It's the best looking one on the screen at least to me but what do I know?
It does seem like it's getting overtaken a little, doesn't it
It also seems that it just got a little couplet and hook but again, what do I know...
I agree, Andrew. Tops at 65K on that one now, with some rotation indicated on velocity. 2.5" hail ain't bad either.
Are you talking about the one just to the SE of Mantorville? When I pause the cursor over it, it tells me top of 56.4, or am I reading something wrong?
56.4 ... you're using GR3, right?? What are you pausing the curser over?? Mine doesn't do anything like that except if you pause it over a hail, tvs, meso or shear icon.
I get rid of the hail icon, then pause over the little white square at the beginning of the storm track line
Caveat: I have not read the help section yet, so it's possible I'm asking a nonsensical question... but I assumed that's where you get the # for top
Cell J2
OK the OFB or whatever that thing is on radar just overtook it, watching...
I haven't read the help section yet either, and I've had this since like April or something :D ... okay, yeah. I was getting the "tops" reading from "ECHO TOPS". The storm track line only gives you a reading from the point where it has the storm track line (or something) ... for instance, right now it's at the 65,000 range in echo tops, and the storm track line has it at 48,300 ... either something is off or it's just picking some exact spot to give a height from, that differes from what echo tops is picking up.
Do you have your "smoothing" box clicked? Took me like three hours to figure that one out when I first got it! :-D
LOL, I figured out the smoothing button pretty quickly. Okay, so when people are talking about the top, the correct place to get it is NOT from the beginning of the storm track as I have been doing tonight, but from the echo tops selection, is what I am hearing from you.
Forgive my rookie Qs, like I say I have a date w/the help section tomorrow
Heidi, do share please... don't know how to smooth yet, it won't let me...
Oh crap. The shear just jumped from 9 to 30 knots on that thing, and the meso is going to go right over Stewartville... I know people there... yikes.
Hey, I am by no means an expert on this thing ... and I remember very well what it felt like to have this amazing tool at my disposal when I downloaded it. It's a wee bit intimidating; leaves you thinking to yourself, "Uh, am *I* really able to have this???!"
I do not know whether it would be right to say the "correct" place to look is the echo tops. That seems to be the place people are talking about, though, when they say "It's at 60K feet" or whatever. Reed or Joel or someone else who is more familiar with this are more qualified to answer that part of things, I'd say.
Have you figured out how to remove "saved sites" that you don't want anymore? :-) (I know how to do that one!)
Two TVS appearing out of the La Crosse site right now, on the cell near Plainview.
Andrew, it said something in the pre-download literature about some systems not supporting smoothing. I can't regurgitate exactly what it was that prevented smoothing, but maybe that's what's going on with yours ... unless you haven't clicked the smoothing box on the right-hand side (Under where it says "Attributes" and "Warnings"...). You'll also want to have "smooth velocity" checked under "View".
K thanks Heidi.
Heres one of the spc tornado reports for yesterday:
0404 15 SW WILDROSE WILLIAMS ND 4848 10341 REPORT FROM WEATHER MODIFICATION PILOT (BIS)
Where they seeding clouds?
Andrew, did that work? Or are you one of the unlucky ones? :-/
I guess I'm unlucky. Oh well. Maybe cause I am using firefox, I dunno.
Andrew, just to make sure there is no miscommunication... do you have the "smoothing" box checked, off to the right? See purple arrows
http://i16.tinypic.com/4uw5fzd.jpg
It won't let me check it.
Joe how do u get that program?
Andrew, old computer? Your graphics card may not support it.
Blah. The dreaded MCS. Looks like it's trying to bow out over in Wisconsin though, might get some serious wind over there. Nothing really even tried to do much tonight. Bummer.
Greg, just google grlevel3
greg
http://www.grlevelx.com
Joe, I think that's it. I got fast internet on an old puter, lol.
What happens if you go File - Device Settings - Force 16 bit smoothing (or is it grayed out too)
Yup. Darnit. Do I need to change my puter settings?
You would need a new graphics card that would support it (or a new puter).
found this
"Smoothing Control
Checkbox that toggles between smooth and nonsmoothed radar display. GRLevel3 examines the graphics hardware to determine if smoothing is supported. If smoothing is not supported, this checkbox is disabled."
Doh. Well that answers it.
Smoothing would be nice but it's still fun without it.
I'll post pics from tonight as soon as I figure out how to get them off the camera. Nothing much but cool, backlit structure. Sigh.
There is a disturbance developing in the Caribbean...the GFS model develops it into a hurricane making landfall next Monday!! The GFS does not do well in predicting hurricane tracks or intensity, so anything could happen!
Reed, where can I see those models?
Wow.
Monday night's models look AMAZING! The Afternoon through Night.
Not much to see tonight but here is a slideshow of what went over.
i have a pretty good view west out of Downtown and the formations tonight were pretty sick but nothing that looked tornadic to me, though what do i know. wish i had a decent digi camera!
wow! i live in sauk county of wisconsin we had some good wind here..would of liked to see stronger it was only 41mph but we got alot of rain couldnt even see the end of the street
David,
They look better than tonight did! I realize it's 2 days away but...
Day 2 (Monday) is now 30% Hatched from the 0800Z Outlook
David you beat me to the punch lol.
Here comes round 2. We'll get Reed up here sooner or later.
hey.. I just got back from effin Eau Claire!!! Wow What a light show!!
Brady you nut!
Rest up for Monday!
I needed my fix!! the intense lightning made it worth the drive through cheeseland!! I really need a good cam for that stuff!! yawn!!
yyaaaaawwwwnnnn!!! top of the morning to you all!!
Hey Brady did u guys get any good storms yesterday
Hey Guys, Well I did attempt to chase that storm as it initiated just west of Minneapolis late yesterday, unforunitly while I tried to punch it to get to the southwest side, it seemed to really weaken and became disorganized. I only encountered some heavy rain, pea sized hail and maybe a few 30-40mph wind gusts just south and west of Lake Minnetonka. However just looking at the SPC outlook tomarrow looks like it has some potential around my area, sounds like the Tornado potential may not be through the roof though.
Yeah i saw the same thing to Travis tomorrow looks nice for that area again
Hey Reed
Just wondering what the chances of a tornado are in my area today. It looks like the SPC has a 2% chance of a tornado in Southern Ontario. Hard to tell because there lines stop at the US borders. Anyways ya just wondering because i have to go to work and there is a big wedding so just checking to see what the possibilities are of a twister.
Hey folks,
I'm sure the .net team is all over this one. It does look out of control except for any capping issues. If I knew what a strong cap was or how to look for it it would be nice.
Still waiting for our big August outbreak, this one could be it?
the CAPE is low at 500 j/kg and the Wind shear at 20 knots(no clue what that is in Km or Miles per hour)
and Andrew i dont know how to see the cap either cananybody help us out.
Hey Matt,
Sorry, I was talking about tomorrow in MN.
I know im talking about me today
Hang on, I'll make the coffee! hehe!
Matt, I drove from Duluth to Eau Claire last night cuz I need friends bad!! jk We didn't get anything here at all except some nice lookin clouds! After driving about 50mi into Wisc I could see good lightning to the south, when I reached Rice Lake, I stopped to get some vid..(my cam sux!!) I shoulda stayed there for a bit, but I wanted to catch the fierce stuff so I hauled south on 53. I had to turn back cuz I hit a half tank and had no funds! hehe
Cool Brady,
I was going to chase the Ohio setup i think it was Wednesday but i have no money because i just bought a car and gas prices would kill me. Next year Im going to chase alot because i got a job and ill be making some money. So next year is my big chase year.
yeah, I really couldn't afford to do that! but what the heck! It made for a good Saturday nite!! I coulda spent that money at the bar easily. Now I can get stuff done today instead of being hungover as hell! besides I needed to test my JB weld job on my radiator, and it held up!!
Hey Andrew, nice shots from yesterday - nothing to complain about! :-D