News DetailMD issued for central Dakotas -- Cap still holding strong, however.
Posted At: August 10, 2007 @ 2:13 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
Based on the 18z RUC analysis (shown below), the cap is beginning to weaken slightly in north-central South Dakota, as can be seen in the white region of the CAPE/CIN analysis below (blue coloring represents substantial CIN). As expected, dewpoints have mixed out slightly into the mid 60s over this region, resulting in CAPE values of around 3000 J/kg. This mixing out of the dewpoints has also resulted in ~30 degree temperature/dewpoint spreads over this region, which is a huge negative factor for tornadoes today, since the storms will have high bases and a tendency to become outflow dominant. Any storms that initiate in this region must move eastward into a more favorable thermodynamic environment to have a good chance of producing tornadoes, but the cap is much stronger further east. Right now, it appears that our decision of not chasing this event was the correct move, but several more hours of good heating still remain!
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Wow. Too bad Reed and gang aren't there... and myself...(sniff) jk.
I'll post my question one more time
What did tornadoes sound like before trains were invented?
I guess they sounded like a large flock of some kind of bird....lol idk. Just a guess ;)
Maybe trains were invented to sound like tornadoes...
I had to put in there again....it's too funny
Perhaps... lol. This is kind of like "which came first, the chicken or the egg?"
haha! Nice one rene. I prefer the waterfall analogy
A massive bow-echo/elevated HP supercell complex is racing across northeast ND right now...three tornado warnings are in effect...although damaging straight-line winds and large hail are the main threats.
Watches up in MB now
Oh, that sounds awesome Reed. Except for the straight line winds, which can cause a lot of damage in itself. How fast is the wind recorded at?
i was in a tornado warning in north dakota but it barely missed us didnt see anything other than a funnel
Just to clarify, I didn't actually tell Reed we should be on this. I actually stood behind him with my mouth agape while he checked the maps, and breathed heavily over his shoulder while he agonized over whether or not to deploy. My two cents the entire time were "that part looks pink".
Dewpoints have mixed out even more in the Dakotas...now only in the low 60s at best up there. So the cap is even stronger than forecast.
I'd say the chances of good tornadic supercells are really really low right now. Thanks to the WRF for preventing a 2000 mile drive!
If tornadoes happen today we're all blaming Corey for not being there!!!!!
*hands out the pitchforks and torches for the angry mob*
Looks like the storms are being political again and dissapating at the border.
Yah, those cells usually turn back from the border when they find out they have to convert their quarter-sized hail into loonie-sized hail... too much hassle
Ahahaha Joe.
Uploaded a video of the storm hitting winnipeg last night. Quite fun watching.
Taber, AB getting run over by a storm that flared up just NE of Lethbridge.
Looks like a nice line setting up.
Very cool Tim! We had a wind storm at night here a few years ago and there were blue flashes all over like that but it was from transformers, branches hitting wires, etc.
Couple years ago transformer across the street blew like that. Power went out right before it did and I got up to get a flashlight and my whole room lit up bright as day with a green glow.. ended up crashing into my desk and all.. wasn't pretty haha.
lots of thunder now!
Shows what u guys know... lol j/k
AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR NAPOLEON...OR ABOUT 54
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
I'm late to the game again (twice in one day!) but, in reference to Rene's question about "what did tornados sound like before trains were invented," I have read some historical tornado accounts where the sound was likened to a herd of hundreds of horses. Makes sense.
I personally think the FCC should fine TV stations when, after a tornado has occurred, they play a sound-bite from someone saying that it sounded like a freight-train.
The storm that Reed & Joel got last September in Arkansas came right over-top of my house, and produced a tornado 4 miles later. That was the first time I'd ever heard "The Roar." I still maintain that it sounded like a low-flying stealth bomber. :)
FROST WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WHITECOURT - EDSON - FOX CREEK - SWAN HILLS
=NEW= SLAVE LAKE.
=NEW= AIRDRIE - COCHRANE - OLDS - SUNDRE
=NEW= ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE - CAROLINE
=NEW= RED DEER - PONOKA - INNISFAIL - STETTLER.
FROST IS EXPECTED FROM AIRDRIE
TO RED DEER AND THE SLAVE LAKE AND
WHITECOURT-EDSON
REGIONS WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ZERO.
BAH!
WEDGE ALERT WEDGE ALERT
* AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR NAPOLEON...OR ABOUT 54
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM
PB - YOU'RE KIDDING?!?!?!?!!?! 8-O
It's 101 degrees here! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
Wow its pretty much 100 here too Hiedi ! And no rain in sight =(
HAIL ITS HAILING holy crap tons of wind
Large tornado on the ground?! Awesome.
P.S- LARGE HAIL CAN HURT YOU! lol.
Where is Gottfred from?
Where is the tornado on the ground at ?
manitoba
Is this where tyhe tornado is Gus?
Tornado is/was in s. central ND
nope im also known as manitoba_storm_chaser
Thanks Joe. Now Manitoba storm chaser I know thanks Gus for letting me know !!
Nice rhyming Michelle
The red dot is Napoleon ND
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:NDMap-doton-Napoleon.PNG
It has been around 100 all week here in Lakeland, FLorida with no rain in almost a week =(
WAY TOO HOT !!!!!!!!
The large and extremely dangerous wedge tornado is in south central North Dakota. USA!! USA!! LOL...
She's a poet, and she didn't know it.
Am I right to assume that the "large wedge tornado" is in rural ND?
Thanks Mike I did not even realize I was using my pre K rhyming Skills LOL
Geez.. the doppler on that ND Storm is insane.
When is the Chat suppose to be back up ??
I hope soon !!!
Uh, Houston... disregard my last transmit about a large wedge tornado. I know where it is now :D
Is there anybody in the area of that huge tornado that we hear from?! I want to see this...
Does that mean no one knows when the chat will be back? hey does that rhyme? No dont think so !! =(
Is it a wedge for sure? "Large and extremely dangerous tornado"... I haven't followed the alerts long enough to know how much to read into their adjectives
O.kis the cahat even going to come back ??
Some decent storms by medican hat, and i wanna see the ND tornado !
and can someone explain to me how what a hook echo is, i can never seem to find them on radar
Michelle the chat is supposed to come back someday...
I wish the Bismarck NWS would put out a LSR regarding the mysterious big tornado in Logan county !
This must be the storm that produced a tornado SW of Jamestown.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MVX®ion=a3&lat=46.92126083&lon=-98.71056366&label=Jamestown%2c%20ND
It looks like it's dying, and there aren't any tornado warnings posted.
Mike, a hook echo is produced on radar when rotation is strong enough to produce, or there actually is, a tornado. It is shaped like a proverbial hook, therefore the nomenclature. They're not always obvious, but in rare instances they scream at you on radar.
yesssssssssssssssssssssssssss that some times mean that incressing tornado thret!!!
Wow... some reports coming in across the province now. Birds Hill Provincial Park is closed due to the extreme damage there.
MPI (Manitoba Public Insurance - MB's government vehicle insurance) is expecting so many claims they've issued an authorization to just repair your vehicle and get reimbursed.
Plane (Which I saw last night) made an emergency landing in a field due to the storm (Little Cessna 172 which I thought was nuts for flying into the storm last night)
Steel roofing ripped off and thrown about 1000 feet by the winds.
Confirmed 117-137km/h winds across various parts of the province. 100km/h here in Winnipeg.
Again...
A boring, blah, chilly & rainy day here in Edmonton :(
Maybe I'll move to Manitoba :) Hehe..
I've been cracking up reading some of these posts.
On a totally different note, TWC seems to think a tropical wave or something moving off of Africa has a good shot at developing :) :) :) :) :) :) (I'm happy)
Sadly, however, Flossie's eye doesn't look as defined anymore :( But whatever. Good for the people of Hawaii.
Sarah, if you're willing to move just for the weather, I recommend you come down here to the the states.
It seems odd that they were saying that a DOPPLER RADAR was tracking a large and dangerous tornado.... And i'm not sure nothing is confirmed yet. But never the less, the cap has broke, and supercells have initiated. The only thing I could think of that would keep this from happening are the large temp / dew point spreads now. Would not shock me to see some tornado reports...
hey guys found this tornado doc. about the strongest tornado for 2005!! the tornado was in KY!! i also live in KY! hope u enjoy!!!
video 1
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8552190789906333851&q=kentucky+tornado&total=90&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=1
video 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz4j9yyYnd4
video 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enLgE_fQR0s
video 4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z50lcJkSSE&mode=related&search=
Psychic are we? Nother tornado warning a county south west of the large uber destructive armageddon alien invasion (got extreme adjectives there for you?) one. earlier.
Hey folks!! How's things been? Anything good goin on?
YES AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN EMMONS COUNTY...OR ABOUT 52 MILES SOUTH OF BISMARCK...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
Brady! We were worried about you. We thought you fell in the lake and the leeches pulled you down.
Someone said good chance of t-storms near your area tomorrow
it was an odd couple of TOR warnings, too. the first one was only valid for 23 minutes. there was no intermediate or "expiration" SVS to my knowledge for the second warning... and the starting location for each warning (near Napolean) was identical...
BRADY! Ole buddy!
Check out tomorrow
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif
Yeah, I am seriously doubting a large tornado occured. And the storms are starting to look a little more junky. I expect outflow dominant within the hour.
The severestudios guys are on the monster in Emmons county.
http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php
Hey Caleb, thanks for posting those links! I know some people who were in that area (Crittenden Co.) deer hunting at the time those storms came through. They were pretty worked up about it, and could see what they thought were funnel clouds from a long distance away. I'd always wondered what actually happened there, since our TV didn't cover it as extensively, so the links you gave answer any questions I had. :)
i was checking out the reflectivity on nexrad and there was defiently a pronounced hook on that cell near napolean...even a tvs on the bismarck radar...is severe studios on this!?!?
Their live stream has been up & down. Go to this link and then click "Click Here" to see what they're filming, if it comes back up
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
right on...i must have been still typing when PB made his post...having troubles connecting to thier livecam though...curious to see what this beast looks like...
hey PB...is your furnace on yet!!!! :]
When I logged onto it a few minutes ago (when it was still transmitting), I immediately thought "tornado!" But it was just a bug streak on their windshield, lol
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL EMMONS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 657 PM CDT...STORM CHASERS REPORTED MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUDS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN EMMONS COUNTY...OR ABOUT 53 MILES SOUTH
OF BISMARCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
* UNTIL 700 PM MDT.
* AT 556 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MALTA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
i got on to severe studios live cam briefly and it looked like they were rolling up to downed powerlines that were on fire!
I saw that fire w/the smoke but assumed it was just some farmer's burn pile
Hehe!! Hey Joe, Andrew!!! Missed ya! What's your take on this weekend Andrew??
Brady it looks like one big crap fest however... quote from the SPC...
SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
Going to be interesting seeing what they say later tonight about it. I'm sure as usual the .net team is closely monitoring the situation and we'll see a blog post before long.
Holy crap check out the wall cloud on the severe studios cam
=) I don't work this weekend!! I'll gas up the dodge here in a few minutes. just in case! hehe!!
Andrew!! Why is the SPC such a downer for us?
I just saw outflow. Holding a cam at all times for a live stream must be a pain in the arse.
I guess they like to play it cool.
This whole year has been a downer for us. No rain, no storms, no nothin.
Yeah Joe it was a good shot for about 10 seconds then everything went dead again.
Sure looked to me like a meso/wall cloud with an inflow tail.
You could be right, he posted a comment that he thought he may have filmed a funnel
Joe check it out they got it back up, it's a crazy wall cloud/meso, very cool looking
Yeah... Play it cool is right!! We have a sweet view of the tip of the lake just down the road, I usually get a great view of storms over NW Wisconsin... but not this year!! =( I had some nice pics and a vid or two, but I drunkinly erased them =(!!
It's trying to do it! D'OH!
Hey people
what did i miss today???
Haha thats great as soon as i come on everybody leaves.
Or nobody whats to talk to me.
Reed made a new blog entry so i guess we should pick up our lawn chairs and move over to the new one