News DetailIncredible shear, HUGE cap in the Dakotas today!
Posted At: August 10, 2007 @ 1:57 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
All the necessary ingredients for tornadoes will be in place for the eastern Dakotas tomorrow (Friday), except for one very important thing: a surface based storm (at least based on Thursday evening's model forecasts). CAPE values of 4000+ J/kg, a low-level jet of 35+ knots, and backed surface winds along a warm front will exist in this region, but convective inhibition (cap) of 100+ J/kg is forecast across the entire warm sector by the WRF model...which will be an unbreakable capping inversion if this model verifies. Here are some selected forecasts from the 00z WRF run Thursday evening:
As seen in the upper-right panel, there is not a single pixel with 0 CIN in the entire warm sector south of the Canadian Border! This is not only due to seasonably warm temperatures between 850 and 700 mb, but also because the WRF fires several nocturnal mesoscale convective systems from North Dakota SSW to eastern CO (bottom left panel), increasing further the relative temperature at cap level. However, if the MCSs tonight are less intense than forecast by the WRF, or if the cap is weaker than forecast, then there will be significant potential for tornadic supercells, given the incredible low-level shear (bottom right panel) and immense instability (upper left panel) over the eastern Dakotas. Because of this insanely strong cap and the likelihood of a clear-sky bust, we have decided not to chase this event..but will be monitoring the new model forecasts and observations closely for any potential of surface-based storm development. The tornado probabilities map for the Day 1 outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center at 1:00 am Friday is shown below ...which are a substantial over-estimate if the WRF model cap forecast verifies. Stay tuned for continuous updates on this potentially active severe weather event.
As seen in the upper-right panel, there is not a single pixel with 0 CIN in the entire warm sector south of the Canadian Border! This is not only due to seasonably warm temperatures between 850 and 700 mb, but also because the WRF fires several nocturnal mesoscale convective systems from North Dakota SSW to eastern CO (bottom left panel), increasing further the relative temperature at cap level. However, if the MCSs tonight are less intense than forecast by the WRF, or if the cap is weaker than forecast, then there will be significant potential for tornadic supercells, given the incredible low-level shear (bottom right panel) and immense instability (upper left panel) over the eastern Dakotas. Because of this insanely strong cap and the likelihood of a clear-sky bust, we have decided not to chase this event..but will be monitoring the new model forecasts and observations closely for any potential of surface-based storm development. The tornado probabilities map for the Day 1 outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center at 1:00 am Friday is shown below ...which are a substantial over-estimate if the WRF model cap forecast verifies. Stay tuned for continuous updates on this potentially active severe weather event.
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What a way to end the summer haha. Jealous of our friends down south!
I havn't seen a 10% in a while in ND. ND has been in the "zone" quite a bit, but nothing has become of it. Things could change real quick though. I figure you can only get so many "bust" days. So do you think it will be an extended summer?
Ah come on you gotta take a day to chase this lol and actually i am more going with the GFS then WRF i think the WRF is overdoing the cap and i mean its 3:45 am and all ready have 1,500-2,000 j/kg of cape with almost 2,000 DD CAPE! its a Sweet setup
Hey All!!!
Hopefully things fall into place for you guys tomorrow!! The weather in NZ is till a bit carppy. Massive thunderclap the other day follwed by golf ball sized hail. But other than that we are set for just rain in the next few days....
but what can you expect.... AOTEAROA (New Zealand) "THE LAND OF THE LONG WHITE CLOUD".
I'll keep you posted
Cheers Jackie
hey guys i'me heading on the school bus... just checked the SPC and it said 10% chance of a tornado!!!
Reed...I know there's no definite way to figure this out but when would you guess things will start spinnin in the Atlantic? And when you post up before a hurricane...how far away from the ocean do you usually stay?
Good morning,
Could someone explain helicity?
How does it relate to storms?
Morning Rene,
Maybe this will help.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/313/
Reed, if you were chasing this event, where do you think the best target area would be? I dont know if I will go or not, I will probably wait till around noon to decide and see how things go.
Lots of heavy rain in alberta(probly why no snow yet)
50mm or 2 inches taday.
Strange no rainfall warnings?
It was very heavy at around 6am this morning(rivers on the streets)
Hi all.... Just so we are clear that zach that posted at 3:47 am was not me lol. Anyway I cannot believe Reed is not chasing this event but as mentioned the cap or cin is insane so it definently could be a bust... oh well guess we could virtually chase.
Reed any updates on the situation? Does anything look different this morning?
this will be awesome if the cap can break today...with huge CAPE and helicity values it only seems typical that the stupid cap is going to hold strong to potentially ruin the chances today...i hope the sun just BAKES the $hit out of the land down there to break it! i guess we should look at the RUC's and see if there is any changes in capping inversion for 18z...
Latest RUC for 7 pm tonight, Cap strength.
http://beta.wxcaster.com/models/RUC/CENTRAL_RUC236_ML_CINH_12HR.gif
Does that mean what I think it means? Doesn't look too strong...
I do not know if any of you have seen this before, but this video was quite interesting. I was hoping someone would be able to explain the phenomenon.
Wow, judging by the comments in the last blog entry, the Winnipeg contingent sure had an exciting night last night. I hope you guys aren't too tired from lack of sleep today. Drink an extra gallon of coffee and you should be fine (that's my advice).
The storms in Ohio yesterday made national news, more damage than I expected... at least 1 person killed, some roofs gone, businesses damaged, many still without power, etc.
http://origin.mercurynews.com/nationworld/ci_6591298
Two tornadoes confirmed, one in Richland County and an EF1 in Ashland County that was just confirmed.
Haven't seen any photos/video of the tornadoes yet (although there are some neat reader-submitted cloud pics at http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=72531 )
The RUC looks a lot different than the morning WRF! It is predicting a much weaker cap but is not showing any initiation in south dakota at all...but does fire several storms in eastern ND. The WRF has much better shear than the RUC, but it is showing an incredibly strong cap in the dakotas, except immediately along the front in central SD west of the good shear.
I'd definitey side with the RUC here...since the immense cap in eastern ND looks like an error, since there are no large MCSs up there.
For the highest chances of initiation, I would target west of Fargo by about 50 miles, and reposition west if needed as storms initiate. I don't like central SD along the front as much because the RUC is veering the winds and mixing out the dewpoints south of the warm front today. However, if winds can stay backed in SD than that would be the place to play. Good luck Travis, Andrew, and anyone else who might be chasing.
Sorry, forgot the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BezK0rkMcWk
That's pretty grainy video, Nate. Unfortunately they stopped the video after the two funnels supposedly "merged" so we can probably assume nothing interesting happened after the supposed merger, i.e. no more funnels, no tornado, etc.
What is CIN? what does it do?
Flossie has developed into a hurricane.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/144036.shtml?5day#contents
Just barely (75 mph)
Should crap out in the next day or two, but hey, congrats to Flossie for growing up.
*Not "should crap out in the next day or two" but more like 4 or 5
Dang, I wish I could be headed to the Dakotas right now :( Maybe next year's chase season I will be more active. Good luck to whomever is chasing, and please bring back some twisters :)
Chris to answer your question on CIN is this:
CIN = Convection Inhibition, now i know that many dont know what that means either...basically CIN is the Capping inversion, and shows how strong/weak the cap will be.
Hope that helps.
I believe Kory from SvrStudios said he is chasing today, which i would expect, so keep a eye for the live chase cam. The link is my name :)
Chris, this link might help.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/306/
Chris: CIN is an acronym for convective inhibition. It has the same units as CAPE, but is a measure of the negative buoyancy in the atmosphere. CIN is a good measure of the cap strength (inversion between 1 and 3 km above the surface). An inversion is a layer of relative warm air in the atmosphere.
We'd definitely be heading to the Dakotas if there were not so many questions...and the cap is a HUGE negative factor today.
I'm suddenly thinking the Dakotas could be somewhat of a letdown this evening. Maybe not the huge outbreak it could have been. Basically the SPC just verified Reed's analysis in his post above.
5% tornado is still significant though.
is there probly going to be a tornado in ND
I am setting the over/under to be 2.5 tornadoes today in the eastern Dakotas, western Minnesota, and southern Manitoba.
Place your bets at tornadosportsbookbetting@loseyourmoney.offshore
I am Joe Surfer, and I approve this message.
A year ago today I was out observing a storm which turned into the worst hail event this area has seen in a long time.
Up to golfball sized hail combined with 120km/h winds shredded crops, stripped trees and damaged buildings and homes in a 4 mile wide, 30 mile long strip southwest of Red Deer, AB.
Today it is 9C(48f).
Not expecting a repeat.
Brady, Travis, all my Minny pals, check out tomorrow's outlook.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif
D'oh!
i remember that PB...my brand new truck was almost a write-off...and it was by far the greenest looking sky ive seen to date...! it was wicked for us storm lovers, but not to wicked for property and land owners! i also recall a storm tracking north-east by bassano that day as well that had a hook associated with it and had reports of rotation. alberta sucks right now too...risk of frost tonight! complete rubbish.
Yeah... I think I am going to watch todays event from the TV and the computer. However you are right Andrew tomarrow does look more favorable closer to home. Chasing tomarrow may be an option, if Im not on the golf course. Let me know if you want to come Andrew.
This is what the SPC is saying about storm chances. I bet that this will change later in the day.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/
Thanks Andrew for the Link (Helicity)
What the heck is this?!
Somebody in the UK has written a non-fiction book about the Super Outbreak. The Daily Mail newspaper has published a book review about it. But look at the photo they used in the article as an example of a tornado
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/books/authors.html?in_article_id=474565
Caption: "A tornado leaves devastation in its wake."
Good Lord.
Still LOL at that photo.
Anyone aiming that bullseye a little further north into Manitoba today? I'd like to see round two of this fight.
Reports from Dauphin's storm last night:
The entire RCMP Police Cruiser fleet from Dauphin was damaged.
Baseball sized hail reported
Vinyl Siding stripped off homes.
Round #2 today!
hahahahahahaha That picture is hilarious.
Baseball size?! Damn. lol. No corepunching for anyone!
Last night in northeast Winnipeg I saw my first transformer explosion. The fireworks were as good as the ones in the cloud. I also have relatives in the north end with missing windows and destroyed cars from the hail. Wild night. Hopefully next round is during daylight hours. Much better for our viewing pleasure.
if storms hit manitoba will it get north enough to carman (1 hour away from the border)
Sure is a lot of wind upstairs today.
Everything is moving so fast.
Does that monster low in the arctic spell brrrr for August in western Canada? It's huge.
Will the front sit over Winnipeg for the next 3 weeks?
Jeez I hope not. I'm freezin!
The author of that article also placed Alabama in Tornado Alley, and also described the Super Outbreak as being the result of a single, large thunderstorm.
"A thunderstorm was brewing and not just any old thunderstorm but one of the kind that will turn up only once or twice in a thousand years, and one destined to unleash on Limestone County and much of the U.S. a decade's worth of super-strength tornadoes in a matter of hours."
Oh well I'm sure the book is fine, but that article/photo cracked me up.
Yeah Joe, me also. It's hilarious!
Any photos of the aftermath of last night's storms in MB?
can anybody anwser my question
MONSTER on the ground in Nebraska! I TOLD YOU WE SHOULD BE ON THIS REED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! TV.NET BLAMES YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
PB, some Winnipeg aftermath photos:
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/local/story/4020476p-4632854c.html
Also this one :-)
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/08_01/Tornado_468x385.jpg
The risk area for Svr T-storms today extends up to the lower Lake Winnipeg Basin. I think it might be just south of Brandon on the west side from the latest I saw. Biggest threat today is probably hail and maybe more damaging winds but I think there's still a slight risk of Tornados.. (less then 5%)
when do u think the storms will form in manitoba. 4?
A tornado warning near Norfolk, Neb. Here's the radar link.
http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=FSD&brand
A little late to the game here, but I had to say that Joe's link is a must-see: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/books/authors.html?in_article_id=474565
Sort of like these:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgqG1hzH3eI
and one of my new personal favoirtes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUAVzbRr5kg
(ya have to watch it till the end!)
Based on the blurb and photo alone, I'd say that the new, ahem, "Super Outbreak" book ought to be listed under fantasy ... as in, other-worldly.
LOL Joe Surfer!
I just read that article. The picture was hilarious, but it just got worse. A decade's worth of tornadoes in hours? MAYBE a month's worth, depending on the month. And it not only placed Alabama in tornado alley, it called Ohio a southern state! It also almost implies Xenia is in Tennessee.
Heidi, the last one was a good one
lol
Not sure. right now it looks like it might start firing up in a couple hours.. could be anytime though.
The book itself is supposed to be okay (upon looking at some of the other reviews, it is a vivid collection of survivor stories) but I bet the author himself sprayed coffee when he saw that UK piece
Nice one Heidi, the last one is awesome. LOL
You mean "sprayed tea", Joe? Nonetheless, I agree. lol.
And I'm still laughing at the last video Heidi posted. Nice.
Thanks for the links Joe
Benson's auto sales took a hit!
That's some big hail
I have a question...
What did tornadoes sound like before trains were invented?
Tornado warnings for two counties in ND. Here's the link, sorry it's so long.
http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=MVX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.343&noclutter=0&t=1186773933&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=766¢ery=420&transx=366&transy=180&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
Rene, I'd like to know the answer to that also...
LMAO Rene
"What did tornadoes sound like before trains were invented"
Tornado Warning in ND's been expanded
Watches up in MB
Just to clarify, I didn't actually tell Reed we should be on this. I actually stood behind him with my mouth agape while he checked the maps, and breathed heavily over his shoulder while he agonized over whether or not to deploy. My two cents the entire time were "that part looks pink!".