News DetailSupercells likely once again in Alberta!
Posted At: July 29, 2007 @ 10:57 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Supercells will develop once again along the foothills of Alberta later this afternoon and evening, especially west of Edmonton and Drayton Valley, AB, where instability is forecast to be maximized. Shown below are some selected WRF forecast panels from this morning (500 mb and CAPE, respectively).
As shown above, a large trough is digging into the western Canada today, with 35+ knots at 500 mb across all of Alberta. The positive vorticity advection from this trough, along with upslope low-level flow will initiate convection over the foothills by around 5:00 pm MT. With CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg from the foothills eastward across the adjacent plains, along with ample deep-layer shear, supercells will be the primary mode of convection and will have no problem sustaining over the weakly capped plains. Stay tuned for updates as this severe weather event unfolds!
As shown above, a large trough is digging into the western Canada today, with 35+ knots at 500 mb across all of Alberta. The positive vorticity advection from this trough, along with upslope low-level flow will initiate convection over the foothills by around 5:00 pm MT. With CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg from the foothills eastward across the adjacent plains, along with ample deep-layer shear, supercells will be the primary mode of convection and will have no problem sustaining over the weakly capped plains. Stay tuned for updates as this severe weather event unfolds!
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I like where you put that red box.
Will be watching.
thx for this reed... ill keep you updated today on my chase efforts.
PB..like you said in the earlier post...it definitely looks best southwest of Edmonton! HEAD SOUTHWEST DALE STAT!! ;alksdjf
As long as we're talking about Edmonton...
As long as we're talking about Edmonton, there is a whole slew of articles about tornadoes in today's Edmonton Journal, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the July 31, 1987 tornado which killed 27 people.
A twister's long shadow
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=81257391-30cd-4285-9cc5-f4e23f4a40a1
Public warning system a legacy of tragedy
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=cb825fa8-e6c5-462f-b361-a7ab8dca77fa
Swirling questions about nature's dangerous dynamo
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=1f74ea11-a624-4088-b42c-6d0ce7f25a31
Tornado survivors mark 20 years
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=2c74316a-5dc0-4ceb-ba47-81ad550320e8&k=27827
Hard lessons from a stormchaser
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=8a411b54-9c16-46c0-a52c-443b431c656d
Storm-proof housing still "way below the radar"
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=145dab47-8220-4d30-be8b-c3bec9358197
Baptism by tornado
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=a2f46a16-5d3c-454b-9349-acf43243b2e7
Front Page
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/index.html#
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT SUNDAY JULY
29 2007.
WARNINGS..SEVERE TSTM WATCHES IN ALBERTA THIS MORNING,
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HUMIDEX
VALUES OF 40 ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
DISCUSSION...THERA ARE TWO JET STREAMS OVER WRN CANADA. ONE BRANCH
FROM NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND THRU NERN BC THRU XTRM SRN MACKENZIE
VALLEY AND SEWD THRU NRN AB. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTED ALL NIGHT ALONG THIS JET.
ANOTHER JET STREAM FROM SRN BC THRU SRN AB AND ACROSS SRN SK
DIVING SEWD THRU NORTH DAKOTA. WE THOUGHT THAT WITH ALL THOSE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER SRN SASK AMS WILL BE CAPED FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AS WATER VAPOUR SAT PICTURES SHOWED, AREA
OF MID LVL DRYING MOVED INTO SRN SK LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TRIGGERING RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
WE THINK THAT TODAY ALL SRN SK AND SRN MB WILL BE CAPED WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 34 TO 36C. 700 MB TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR 12C. THE POSITION OF SRN UPPER JET IS XPCTD TO BE ACROSS
SRN AB THRU CNTRL SK INTO CNTRL MB. AMS WILL REMAIN MOIST AT LO
LVLS OVER CNTRL SK AND CNTRL AND SRN MB. SO ANY UPPER IMPULSE
MOVING ALONG UPPER JET SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL SK AND CNTRL WRN MB.
yup heading to drayton valley soon here reed.
Hey rob were did you get that?
What to do...
Go to Drayton or wait and see if things boil locally.
I can see the tip of the arrow from here.
Hate to be in Drayton while hail is beating the giant pumpkin to death at home.
The Edmonton Sun also has a spread on the F4 in 1987
Black Friday never ends
http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Edmonton/2007/07/29/4377126-sun.html
Joy amid the clouds
http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Edmonton/2007/07/29/4377144-sun.html
Pain never goes away
http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Edmonton/2007/07/29/4377145-sun.html
ya i know pb.... thing is the foothilss and the drayton area is where these things have been strating as of the past few weeks or so.
wehat does it look like today for consort, rpovost, coronation area...along the sask ab border? anyone?
Great articles Joe! I'm planning a big blog entry on the anniversary for this tornado...so any info is much appreciated.
Tough call PB...there was one time on May 8, 2003, we went 5 hours to northern KS where the models were forecasting the best conditions...and an F-4 tornado missed my apartment in Moore, OK by 1.5 miles!! I guess you just have to go where everything looks best, and then luck takes over from there.
Do you have mobile internet Dale? If not I'd recommend going to a Wifi location and watching satellite and radar continuously.
You've got about 5-6 hours until initiation btw..You could probably drive back and forth between Drayton and Edmonton 8 times before a storm even initiates!! We always end up leaving about 8 hours before we have to, and then have nothing to do while we're waiting...but the worst case scenario is you leave too late and miss everything.
Dale I'd play the foothills and extreme western plains. There is a lot of anticyclonic upper flow further east, so your chances of initiation are best further west with the positive vorticity advection and upslope flow.
Reed, not being from you area, I'm curious about something. What would have been the protocol for people living in that Moore apartment building when the F4 was on the ground? Do apt. bldgs in the area have designated shelters as part of the local code, or would people have been instructed to go somewhere else? Thx
Dale what are you driving?
If I'm out that way I'll be in a white Oldsmoboat delta 88.
Wonder if Alder flats has any wifi? :)
Wouldn't it be nice if edmonton got hit at 12 am again :). Yesterday put off a nice light show.Reed you should definetly start chasing up in canada more often next year.
Joe..I don't recall any organized tornado shelter plan at my apartment! They must have had one in place, but of course, I never concern myself with those because if there is a chance for a tornado we're always chasing it!
Kenny..we're planning on chasing the entire canadian season next year. I'm working on my dissertation now since I chased so extensively this entire season down in the states. But still, if conditions are favorable enough, we'll make the trip up there this season as well.
hey reed just found a full life cycle of a tornado in OK you'll prolly recognize it from a few years ago!
my favorite part waz when it turend in to a stove-pipe.
I have no doubt that if you ever get hitched, it'll be in the dead of winter so as not to conflict with potential chasing opportunities :-)
Here is an idea for your site? How about a map of N. America with little pins in it, showing all the tornadoes you've ever filmed.
12pm.MST
Calgary airport: 29C Dewpoint 6C
Drumheller : 27C Dewpoint 16C
Less than 60 miles apart.
Onefour(close to AB/MT border): 33C DP -6C
Edmonton: 26C DP 18C
Anything expected for my area again? The humidex is nuts..29, feels like 37. Tomorrow gonna be 35, feels like 43...I expect something tomorrow for sure with that heat!
EC has a humidex advisory for eastern Alberta, based on the dew points so far it will be expanded to Edmonton, red deer.
Highest dew points @ 1:00MDT
Camrose 19C
Elk Island National Park 19C
Lacombe 19C
Stony Plain 19C
pb...im driving a chev p.o.s. lol. its a red s-10 truck. i havent started out yet...this is gonna be an evening thing...i did drive out to red water to get a closer look att he northern part( without the city smog factor).
ya im figuireing west too reed. i was checking points west cause of the enormous amount of energy thats going up today over the ab/sask border.
oops correction i ment to say i was checking out points east. geez that thing ne of whitecourt is nasty right now. anyone near there?
1pm. MST
Strathmore: 28C DP 16C (78f/62f)
West Calgary: 30C DP 2C (87f/36f)
Strathmore is 30 miles east of Calgary.
Currently(outside my apt)
32C
DP 19C
Humidity 46%
Humidex 38C
That is a nasty looking thing.
Look out Fox creek!
Another one firing up straight west of Drayton Valley.
Think I'm going to head for Rocky soon.
im gonna head out in another 30 min -hour. going west on 37 towards the whitcourt area then south if nothing looks good. reed, i dont have a laptop...just go where my instincts take me.
were is everybody???
Dew point in Camrose now 20C.
Temp 29
Humidex 37C
My place :
33C
45%
DP 20C
Humidex 40C
EC should defiantly issue humidex advisory for Edmonton and Red deer
marco! lol im just waiting here...gonna be gone in a sec or 2.
I've plotted the trend for Camrose.
peaks
Temp 32C
DP 22C
Humidex 43C
today in alberta
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
A HOT HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY. THIS AIRMASS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER ALONG THE JET STREAM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WHITECOURT AND SLAVE LAKE REGIONS AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 KM/H. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE GIVING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
Reed did youj get my pictures and vids yet?
Looks like a hook echo 40k west of Whitecourt on the 3:10 radar image.
It looks like 2 monster cells have developed NW of Edmonton....and one smaller one West of Drayton Valley so far.
PB..I see wat u mean. u think EC should eventually issue a Tornado Warning?
Aaawww!! Why does Canada get to have all the fun? jk.
The NWS is having an MCS discussion for our area, which will probably not amount to much, but at least they are talking about it. :) Other than that, it's all just juicy cumulus.
Jonathan, they might issue a warning if someone reports a funnel, but there aren't many people up there to report.
Looks like it's going north of Whitecourt.
Wonder if Dale is out there?
Things starting to boil west of Drayton Valley now.
Some juicy looking cells west of edmonton right now,
svr storm in ca today!
The jet stream is in Canada thus all the fun. But you can go to Mexico for the tropical jet
im thinkin i should head up towards drayton, that tower looks insane!!