News DetailSevere weather possible today in southern Manitoba
Posted At: July 25, 2007 @ 10:35 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
A slow-moving cold front will advance across southern Manitoba today, bringing a good chance of severe thunderstorms south and east of the lake region today. While low-level flow will be marginal for tornadoes, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells especially over the north and east part of the red-shaded area above. As seen below, instability will once again be extreme, with CAPEs of over 3000 J/kg throughout the warm sector. Stay tuned for updates.
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reed:
could you check the data for this weekend...like sunday/sunday night over central alberta? appreciate it thx .
Reed you didn't put my pictures up, that makes me feel unspecial :(
Pretty good cap on that cape again today in MB?
More goodies for AB today or too cold?
RUC and WRF both put some cape over Red Deer at 00z.
Bit of a jet there too?
Feels like winter this monring at 10C :)
That is pretty rude, Kenny.
Why don't you put them up somewhere and give us a link?
PB...great pictures on your site.
The RUC is firing a little a convection over the mountains of AB today, but instability is definitely lacking. There is a trough lagging behind in western CA, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some storms again up there, but nothing like yesterday.
Southern Manitoba looks to be in for an active afternoon/evening...the cap is definitely a lot weaker than yesterday.
Sorry Kenny! I didn't get your pictures until the next day, and I was away from the computer for most of the day. We had so many pictures up of the shelf cloud and it was a few blog entries old. All of the pictures I posted were emailed to us the night before. You had some great pictures though...congrats!
Sigh... Looks like another BORING day for me! The wrf models are not impressive in ways of any precip today. Although an isolated storm cant be ruled out. The chance of rain is less than 20% in any given area of the state.
PB...the storm you documented on 7-24 looked to have a textbook clear slot. Was this the Drumheller supercell?
Yay for me...i wont have to leave my house....lol whos gonna come for a visit to watch the storms...lol
You know something good will happen when the Severe Weather Possible arrow points right at your house. Here in downtown Winnipeg we already have a dewpoint of 25c. Feels like soup outside. Just a few more hours until the games begin.
Lol i know what u mean Jon....im right above that arrow...lol
Hello , from winnipeg at 12:00 it was 32degrees C. Feels like 44 with the himidex. It is clear outside. The sun is beating down real hard. I am waiting for supercell time...
Cheers!
7-24 is from the Sylvan Lake- Red Deer area.
I was about 1/2 hour late getting to it as I went to have a look at one south first.
It had a nice wall cloud until I got there.
The best backside CN I have ever seen I think, they were almost impossible to look at without sunglasses.
Didn't see an anvil all day up here though.
Yeah its pretty bad when my air conditioner doesnt even want to blow cold air in this heat!!!I'm melting....:-P
Yep melting is right ! Well hopin for a good day got cameras ready truck fueled now just waitin for somethin good ! Cloudin up here pretty good in the last hour somethin seems to be buildin we shall see !
LOL rob stop by for a visit if you end up out here:-P
Yeah Amanda, Im Frosty in the middle of the summer heat!!! Only instead of snow I'm a puddle of water haha... It's like 90 degrees w/ a heat index of 96 here in oklahoma!!!!! Yup melting is the key word.
Hope that cap breaks up for you folks. Sure are some juicy ingredients there!
wow is it ever hot! temp of 33 C(92 F) with a humidex of 45(114 F) Man, I'm hoping for storms here in Winnipeg.
PS. I'm just south of reed's arrow-living in the st.vital area of winnipeg. lol. watevr. hopefully my map i made will be correct
I'll definitely be chasing any of the setups in and around Winnipeg... though they might end up chasing me by the looks of things. Crossing my fingers for storms of biblical proportions here! *dances around happily*
Clouds are developing over my region..... Instability is SLIGHTLY increasing as well. I don't know, but an isolated storm could develop here within the next few hours!!!
Carman Manitoba now has a dewpoint of 29c or 84f. With the humidex conversion that's 49c or 120f! WTF is going on? This isn't India.
Don't complain! The Severe Weather Gods might become angry and curse us with good weather! ):
Quote" Carman Manitoba now has a dewpoint of 29c or 84f. "
Is that good for developing severe t-storms?
Yep.. Severe T-storm watch issued for all of Southern Manitoba a minute ago.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/mb_e.html
Manitoba is now under watch status
So ...highier the dewpoint the better ?
Dewpoint is the temperature at which air becomes saturated and can't hold more water (ie: rains). So the higher the dewpoint the more water (which = energy for storms) the air mass can hold. It's one of the ingredients in forming severe t-storms.
ahhh making sense now
Here's another question
So this dewpoint makes the clouds turn dark grey due to saturation?
That's an amazingly high dew point. I don't think I've ever heard of it being that high. WHOA! 8-O
Dewpoint just aids in the formation of the clouds by providing the moisture. The dark grey is actually the lack of light penetrating through the clouds (someone correct me if I'm wrong here).
Ok..googled the answer
"Member since: 11 July 2007
Total points: 368 (Level 2)
Points earned this week:
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Pete W
http://login.yahoo.com/?.pd=c%3d1MKJL2Wp2e6fd5g2kpFG6jM-&.intl=uk&.src=knowsrch&.done=http%3A%2F%2Fuk.answers.yahoo.com%2Fquestion%2Findex%3Fqid%3D20070710133514AAoBuQb Best Answer - Chosen By Voters
It relates to the mass of rain, hail, etc. within the growing storm cloud. A greater the amount of rain (usually within a taller storm) leads to a lesser amount of sunlight getting through the cloud...resulting in a darker cloud. The darker the cloud base, usually the taller (and more intense) the storm."
Actually Tim, The reason the clouds appear dark is becuase the clouds are holding alot of water... The humidity levels tell you how much water the atmosphere is holding. The dew point tells you how much moisture is available in the atmosphere. So the higher the dew point and the lower the humidity, means that their is alot of water in the atmoshere!!
So what are everyones predictions for Manitoba? Where do you think is the most likely location a tornado will appear today?
Fred, Im no expect at this but if you look at the first picture it shows mainly southern Manitoba.
WOW!!!! The temperature in Carman, Manitoba is 33 Celcius(92 Farenheit)...but with a dewpoint of 30 celcius(86 farenheit!) the humidex is 51 celcius(124 Farenheit)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I would definitely be surprised if severe weather didn't develop today!
Jon
Hey, I forgot the website to Enviromental Canada... Could someone give it to me???
PS to avoid any confusion, I am not Jonathan Strike. lol
Jon
http://www.ec.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=FD9B0E51-1
here is the EC website Zach
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/warnings_e.html
here you go
This is funny. It's hotter in Canada than in Texas in the middle of July. Beautiful day here at 89 degrees. Last year it would be around 105 by now!
Hey Tim you coming this way if they head out here?....Im re-filling my pool....lol...and starting to get a little nervous with no basement...lol ahhh hell hope we get hail...maybe then i can get the other damage on my truck fixed....mental note...go stick truck in a field...lol...
Thanks Jonathan. I was going to say something. That Carman dewpoint is the highest I've ever seen. All this energy and still no mention of tornadoes in any forecasts.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Currently
Observed at: Winnipeg Richardson Int'l Airport 3:00 PM CDT Wednesday 25 July 2007
Mainly Sunny
Temperature 35°C
Pressure/ Tendency 100.5 kPa?
Visibility 24 km
Humidity 58 %
Humidex 47
Dewpoint 25°C
Wind SSW 26 km/h
gust 37 km/h
Posted By Fred | July 25, 2007 @ 2:33 PM #
"Where do you think is the most likely location a tornado will appear today?"
I'll put a buck on the St Claude area.
With my luck this year, that should keep anything nasty from getting anywhere near there.
East of Winnipeg is looking best for the slight risk of tornadoes.. but if we get supercells it's a whole other ball game and anyone's at risk. Amanda.. not sure where I'm heading yet. It looks like up around your neck of the woods right now the way the clouds are developing. I might be out as early as 30 mins from now though it looks like the best activity is going to be around 7pm or 8pm once the main front hits. If it's looking better east of Winnipeg later I might head out that way later. Just gotta see the what the cards hold once I'm out.
This is a little off topic, but does anyone know when conditions are forecasted to become more favorable for tropical development in the Atlantic?
Everything's kinda screwed up this year.. my ex lives down in Punta Gorda, FL and we were just joking the other day that they'll get a hurricane on Christmas Day or something wierd. I think I read on here the same system causing the lows that have been causing all the rain in Texas were diluting some of the tropical formation or something.
Call me crazy, but I think I see a couple of cells popping up just to the west and south west of Winnipeg. Check EC's latest radar frames from Woodlands radar site.
Severe T-Storm warning for dufferin area.. I'm enroute as we speak