News DetailPictures from the severe tstorm in Winnipeg
Posted At: July 25, 2007 @ 11:12 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
Severe thunderstorms developed in an EXTREMELY unstable environment this evening, with CAPE values of over 10,000 J/kg by 4:00 pm CDT over much of southern Manitoba (see RUC analysis from 21z below). Consequently, Winnipeg was pounded with very heavy rain and strong straightline winds today. Here are some pictures courtesy of Tim Wilson from the Winnipeg storm today:
Here is the RUC analysis for CAPE as of 21z (4:00 pm CDT) earlier today (thanks for the image PB). Never have I seen CAPEs this high! However, these analyzed values are likely the result of intense evapotranspiration over the vast farmland of southern Manitoba, and a very shallow layer of 80+ deg F dewpoints. The mixed-layer CAPE values would have been a much better measure of the instability today east of the cold front.
Here is the RUC analysis for CAPE as of 21z (4:00 pm CDT) earlier today (thanks for the image PB). Never have I seen CAPEs this high! However, these analyzed values are likely the result of intense evapotranspiration over the vast farmland of southern Manitoba, and a very shallow layer of 80+ deg F dewpoints. The mixed-layer CAPE values would have been a much better measure of the instability today east of the cold front.
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Hey reed, you should post a comment re this on the forum? CAPE at 10,000? That's just madness!!!!! I didn't think CAPE got that high!
mike
Awesome pictures Tim where abouts were u when u took them?
WoW!! Nice Pics!
So if I may ask... What does this all mean for northern MN Tomarrow?? Like the Duluth area? Big storms usually crap out just before they get here!! But I'm still hoping!
(I am only saying this because I am DESPERATE for some good hard convection anywhere near me- we need the rain and I need a fix)- I am in southeast central MN and I think storms have a good chance of firing AHEAD of the cold front tomorrow afternoon. No, I am not an expert but my theory is that gigantic pile of STUFF right now in ND could push out a killer outflow boundary and fire stuff out in front of the cold front. (Please please please,lol). The CAPE will be high, dewpoints insane, and I've seen worse shear. Anyway, just a VERY wild, somewhat educated guess but if anyone in the area wanted to chase tomorrow I think south central is the place to be. Now someone shoot down that amateur rant and tell me why I'm wrong- but I think we might have the best chance in country for supercells-at least for a little while tomorrow afternoon before everything becomes a giant MCS again.
Oakbluff & Highway 2. The wind got so strong at one point it blew out a transformer. I looked over just in time to see the flash and watched it pick up a pile of debris for over a minute.
The first shot was just after my car came within about 3-4 feet of being hit by what appeared to be part of a car fender flying around. You can see on the bottom left it was throwing big chunks of mud/rock around.
My FTP was down earlier this evening but I got those shots and a video of the post-transformer debris along with some lightning shots from this evening. I've got a few other shots on there too.. not as good, in my opinion, as the 4 I sent Reed though.
Great storm though, had a lot of fun. Imagine if we had some better shear... world's first F6 hahaha.
Lucky you Tim...wish i coulda been there
Andrew, National Weather Service agrees with you to a point.. just not as much on the severity by the looks of things:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Yeah Andrew!! I know you guys have been hurting for rain for quite a while now! Until the last few days it's been pretty green around here, but this whole state needs rain before it burns up!! THAT SCARES ME!! worse than f5 tornadoes!!
nice shots tim! i grew up in kenora so i know exactly where you were playing today. some of the best storm viewing around id say! just FLAT. how fast do you estimate the winds were in that storm? they look a little gusty from your first pic!
Well just got home from chasin all night lot of drivin for not much best I see was south of Winkler right on the US border is was a nasty old T-Storm wanted to go further south but I had had my fill of drivin over 450km logged today next step was crossin into the US but storms didn't warrant goin that far at the time
Thanks Brandon!
They were gusting to at least 50-65kts at the worst.. so around 100km/h.. I routinely was having to bend down slightly to keep from getting blown backwards when I was taking my shots and almost got blown over a couple times.
Wow Tim Great Pics!!!
Just wondering...what kind of camera you use, coz all the pics that i take over here in nz with my digital camera don't define the clouds enough.
The clouds will look awesome but i can't seem to capture the detail! Help
Oh... I'm sure anything worth chasing will be close to here, cuz I gotta work from 8 to 6! And I've been having a real good run of bad luck lately!! No chasing for me!
Does anybody have any input on the storms in ND?
Posted some pics on my myspace they are at bottom left.
http://www.myspace.com/ilovemanitobaweather
These where takin with a Pentax K10D Camera
wild pics tim...into the bearcage with you lol!
Thanks for sharing your photos Tim and Rob, great stuff!
Haha Dale.
That there is a Canon Powershot S3 IS Jackie.
I like it because when you're on manual mode you can adjust the settings for the lens and focal width and stuff and it'll preview the scene with the new lighting condition on the LCD. Generally daytime shots I go with an F 8.0 and adjust it to 1/250-1/50 depending on how dark/light the cloud is. Gives me nice contrast and you can probably do the same with any camera.
Personally my camera of choice is a Nikon D80 but I don't have $1200 to spend on one haha.
Awesome Shots Rob. I like the shelf clouds from '03 your sister took.
Thanks PB!
Global extremes
Max temp past 72 hours: 49°C (120.2°F) [KQXJ:Tallil, Iraq]
Min temp past 72 hours: -68°C (-90.4°F) [NZSP:Amundsen-Scott Stn, Antarctica]
Max dewpoint: 31°C (87.8°F) [OEDR:Dhahran, Saudi Arabia]
Last reported tornado/funnel: [KGCN:Grand Canyon National Park, AZ, United States] (0254Z 26 Jul 2007)
13 stations reporting temperature 40°C to 44°C
1 station reporting temperature -50°C to -54°C
1 station reporting bird hazard on the runway: SPST: Tarapoto, Peru
10,000j/kg of CAPE!!!! Holy s*** haha. That is absolutely incredible. To bad temps were 100+Fs.
Wow, those are some amazing pictures. The third and fourth are beautiful!
Omfg..... I have never seen CAPE values exceeding 10,000j/kg in my life!!!!!! Just think, if you guys would have had better sheer there probally would have been monster tornadoes!
Btw..... Nice pictures Tim!!!! That looked to be quite a wind storm!
wow. china is getting hammered with major flooding and there is a confirmed report of a tornado that touched down and tore through 33 villages in china's eastern province, which thankfully, didnt claim any lives...i wish i could find a picture of it...!
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411749/1255411
Tim: Those Shelf clouds are from June 23 '07 that line of storms is the same one that produced the Tornado that Reed videotaped in Pipstone. This particular one did fairly severe damage to some farms just minutes after that pics was takin. If yer thinkin the Nikon D80 looks good take a serious look at the Pentax K10D it get as high or higher reviews and is sealed very well for water and dust were the D80 is not it also has image stabalizing built into the body instead of having to buy the $$ lens to do it and all for around the same money depending on what lens you want to get for it. Hope this helps. To get seals like it has ya have to go to the Nikon D200 which starts at the body for $1600. Pentax $950 for the body lens runs from $100 to through the roof so better buy unless yer goin pro!
NICE pictures Tim and Rob. I'd really like to see something go up in an environment with so much instability, tornadic or not. The second one down is crazy...the cloud structure is getting whipped!
I sound like a broken record, but the weather has been BORING!!! Today calls for plenty of sun and temps in the low 90's! I am watching the weekend though..... Things could get interesting.
Im with ya on that one Zack its like 75F with humidex its like 88F. It hasnt rained or nothing for almost 2 weeks. there calling for t storms tomorrow.
Alright ..I'm dying a slow death here.
Bored to hell
Come on someone has to know a voodoo rain dance/chant here ?
Found this little tidbit of knowledge
http://www.ontariostorms.com/misc/special.html
Don't know if it's 100 % accurate or not
There calling for tstorms in tottenham tomorrow. Figures rain the day i have a tee time to play golf.
Thats kinda wierd if that map is right Southern Ontario is tornado alley of Canada. Of course i dont know when that map was done but it looked like a while ago.
Judging by the colors they used to generate them map. I would say early 80's..late 70's
Bah !! I don't
You know, I have found out that tornado alley shifts every year..... The *traditional* tornado alley in the U.S. is the plains, but the threat for twisters shift every year! Don't you think that is kinda wierd???
I bet there is a substantial correlation between the older tornado frequency maps and population density!
I definitely don't trust even the US tornado frequency maps, esp. those generated by Chuck Doswell in his older papers..
Tim, I've got the same camera as you, and I really enjoy it. It's certainly not a DSLR, but for those of us unable to commit $800 plus, it's a great value, and more than adequate in most situations.
Hi guys,
Actually, that map was published in the July/August 1996 Canadian Geographic, in an article called "Funnel Fury." It's based on a review of tornado frequencies in Canada that was completed (I believe) earlier that year. I have spoken to a few of the people involved, and there were a number of issues...
The very high frequency maximum in SW Ontario is actually an artifact of the attempt to compensate for the population bias. If it were accurate, we would be getting several dozen tornadoes per year just in the Barrie-Windsor corridor! We probably get *a* dozen within that region, but not several dozen.
That said, there's probably a strong underestimation of tornado activity further north right across the country, from western Quebec, across northern Ontario, and all the way into the Alberta foothills. Imho, I feel the edge of the activity (the 0.5 to 0.9 region) is probably a few hundred kilometers too far south.
We now have Doppler radars covering much larger swaths of the country, so I don't think it would be too hard to start getting a better estimate of what we're missing.
Simon E.