News DetailSevere weather possible Tuesday for Saskatchewan
Posted At: July 23, 2007 @ 12:45 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A strong upper-trough and associated cold front will traverse the central Canadian Prairies on Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing a chance for severe weather in east-central Saskatchewan extending into extreme west-central Manitoba overnight. Low-level and deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells and isolated tornadoes with any isolated storms that develop where the greatest instability and strong LLJ are co-located.
Comparing the 850 mb forecast above with the CAPE (instability) forecast below, it can be seen that the low-level jet will be slightly displaced to the east of the best instability. This displacement is very common in the model forecasts of Canadian severe weather setups, and often times, the low-level jet verifies further west closer to the advancing cold front, especially during the evening as the lower atmosphere begins to cool after peak heating. If the LLJ is further west, then the tornado threat will be higher over east-central Saskatchewan, but if the WRF model verifies, then the threat will mainly be large hail and strong straight-line winds. Stay tuned for continuous updates!
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Reed/Joel
It seems that when ever there is a risk for severe weather for the prairies, it's always eastern Sask Western Manitoba. Why is it that it's seems as though Southwest Sask is in a "shielded" area, the Swift Current area more generally. Is there any geographical reason for this or is it mainly to do with the Jet Stream? Thanks for the help!
our area again, huh? I'll keep my eyes open, even though I may be at Good Spirit Lake. After the storm there Tuesday i can see what they mean about storms feeding off the lake!! I'll try catch some photos if some come to this area
I agree with KalinWiebe though, why is it always SE Sask. this year?
Are the "straight line winds" you were talking about in your descritpion what I sometimes here called "shear (sp??) winds? How do those types of winds relate, or do they relate to tornadic activity? (I'm just a rookie in my knowledge of severe weather)
You guys are so smart....... :)
Hi Jansie! Straight-line winds are non-tornadic winds..An example of straightline wind damage is when downed trees are all lying in the same direction. Straightline winds are typically caused by downdrafts that spread out in the horizontal at the ground, or when stronger winds just above the surface are transported downwards by a downdraft.
Kalin...It could just be coincidence this year...since there have only been a few events it's difficult to tell if it's related to any kind of climate forcing.
The morning models runs are not looking very favorable for tornadoes over SK...they have the LLJ displaced way far to the east. There still could be some severe storms, however.
Hey reed, word is there is a possibility of some decent storms in alberta this evening (central and northern alberta) think they could be severe?
Heard a rumour that you guys were in the area (Virden, MB) is this true? Would love to ride along if the chase gets as close as Melita.
Hey guys, Its been real stormy this morning around my area.... Wrf models are showing widespread storms for my area through late aft. Some isolated severe storms are not out of the question either. The SPC has much of north west oklahoma under a slight risk for severe storms this for the late aft and evening hours.
Hey Mike..the instability is marginal at best for severe storms..and the shear is lacking as well. I'd say you could get some marginally severe hail/wind with any storms that develop on the mountains...but nothing significant.
Jesse...we're not chasing in Canada this week...the chances aren't quite high enough for us to make the trip. We'll keep you updated on our situation though.
Reed lookin at the 30 hour central to east Sask models wind looks good cape looks good is it the cap that is gonna screw things up for that as it looks right now?
Hey Rob...the models are forecasting the low-level jet to be slightly too far east of the instability axis. Still could happen though...we'll see what tonight's models show.
So is there any chance this weather will be near Saskatoon?
southern sask now within 5C of all time canada record(45C)
In fact we have been flurting with it several time so far
Sever thunderstorm Warning for west and NW of Edmonton...nothing here yet
Mike, there is some serious dark clouds moving in over leduc....really eerie out too! think we are in for some light shows!
Yah candy!... we just got hammered by high winds, nice wall cloud to.... most beautiful storm ive ever seen....took some pictures, ill send em to reed. we missed the worst though, i think there is another storm coming not sure.
Reed: At what time of the night do they release the newest models on that site ya told me to look at ? Kind hopin Sask. is a go for tomorrow I need a drive wanna check before I hit bed so I know if I have to leave early or if it's worth it
Just looked at em what do ya think about the Regina area and little further west? Winds maybe off bit to far to the west but is it close enough to get nasty?
Hey Rob, the WRF and GFS models run twice daily, at 7:00 am central and 7:00 pm central...they're usually available on the websites by 10:00 pm CDT and midnight CDT respectively...
Interesting to see what tonight's runs show for tomorrow in SK
Weather just got very interesting the last hour. What looks like a super cell is developing just to the east of me(Bottineau, ND)
Woot yep lookin good it is only bout half hour from me ! Time to go have a look ! maybe dark isn't the best time but may get some lightning pics
R.M. Of Turtle Mountain including Killarney and Lena
11:01 PM CDT Monday 23 July 2007
Severe thunderstorm warning for
R.M. Of Turtle Mountain including Killarney and Lena issued
An intense slowly moving thunderstorm has developed 30 kilometres south of Boissevain. Radar indicates this storm may be producing large hail and strong winds. With the slow speed of the storm significant rainfall amounts will also be associated with it.
This is a warning that severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring in these regions. Remember that some severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes. Listen for updated warnings.
This is just 10 min from us!!! Off I go.
Yeah sure he leaves me and the baby and here is our areas warning:
R.M. Of Riverside including Ninette, Margaret and Dunrea
12:13 AM CDT Tuesday 24 July 2007
Severe thunderstorm warning for
R.M. Of Riverside including Ninette, Margaret and Dunrea issued
A cluster of thunderstorms has developed southeast of a line from Deloraine to Minto. These storms are moving eastward at 15 to 20 km/h. Radar indicates these storms may be producing large hail and strong winds. With the slow speed of the storms significant rainfall amounts will also be associated with them.
Isolated thunderstorms have developed near the us-Canada border and are moving slowly east north eastward. Because of the slow motion of the systems localized significant rainfall could occur along with large hail and damaging winds.
Any reports on the storm that passed through the Lake Metigoshe/International peace garden areas last nite? Hail size/wind speeds?