News DetailSevere weather likely central Plains/Missouri River Valley Today
Posted At: July 23, 2007 @ 1:12 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
An interesting severe weather event will occur over the Central U.S. today, with northeasterly flow at mid- to upper-levels around the western periphery of a large ridge over the Eastern U.S. Given the expected southwesterly storm motion, helicity values will be quite high over eastern NE, western IA, central KS, and even central OK (see below right) -- exceeding 200 m2/s2. A shortwave will be embedded in this northeasterly flow aloft, providing the trigger for convection over these areas, with the WRF forecasting widespread storms from Iowa SSW to Oklahoma. Given the impressive helicity values, supercells and even isolated tornadoes will be possible, especially from eastern NE/western IA through central KS.
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Just thought I would post this:
http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2007/07/22/news/latest_news/b890e0b1abfa1e2f862573200076204d.txt
Is this crazy or actually plausible? Has anyone heard of this before?
Reed do you think there will be some good weather around Hutchinson, KS today? It would be nice if we received some good rain again as it's been dry. But it would be good to chase some storms as its been quite a while since we had some good storms.
Hey everyone, I'm back to posting today... Finally after such a looong weekend! Anyway I heard theres a good chance of severe weather in my region today!!! FINALLY!! We are already seeing storms as of right now! Check out the special weather statement.
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WESTERN LINCOLN...LOGAN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
MERIDIAN TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRAH AT 910 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WATER WILL COLLECT QUICKLY
ON ROADS...AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE STORMS WILL APPROACH
GUTHRIE...LUTHER...ARCADIA AND WELLSTON...AND WILL ALSO AFFECT
Woa!! Nasty looking gust front moving my way!! 40-50 mph winds are possible with increasing strength!!!!
JULY 2007 ONE OF SEATTLE'S WETTEST EVER
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/324702_tl323.html
Are you weather buffs jealous yet? LOL (sob)
And that's that from the weather department out here. No tornadoes yet. I will keep watching for them and keep you apprised. Wait, is that one I see?? Nope, it was just a streak on my windshield, gotta fix those wipers.
And here is another update from backyard storm spotter Zack Allen!! The gust front is looking very impressive!! Wish I had my video camera running!!!
Andrew, that article was quite interesting - I'm glad you posted the url. ... Makes me want to give a second thought to the huge dewpoints over Iowa recently! It's kind of funny to think of it possibly being because of the corn exhaling! :-D
Damn the storm just weakened!!! But some new development is taking place to my west moving my way!
Just asking this question because this has got to be one of the WEIRDEST days for storm direction I have ever seen in my limited experience...
Say a supercell or two pop in Nebraska this afternoon, storm motion to the WEST/southWEST. I'm just wondering what the thing with would look like and scratching my head. Would it be anticyclonic???
Sorry just a bit confused.
OK never mind the anti-cyclonic thing, I just got out a pad of paper and a pencil and drew it out because my mind can't visualize...
but if a tornadic supercell pops I come up with a cell with a hook on the southEAST side of the storm... tornado motion EAST.
Sorry for all the ranting but it's just plain goofy.
Take a look at this!! looks like we're in for some severe storms this aft!!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...CNTRL KS...NW AND NCNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231641Z - 231815Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE NEB...CNTRL KS INTO
NCNTRL AND NW OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WW
ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SFC ANALYSIS EXTENDING FROM
ERN NEB SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL OK. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED WWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WITH THE MOST
NOTABLE BEING LOCATED IN SE NEB...NRN KS AND NW OK. AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...STORM INITIATION WILL
BECOME LIKELY ALONG THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY OCCUR
IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM MAY ALSO
SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
Yeah, me again, ranting on.
Edit to my last post, a tornadic supercell with the hook on the NORTHeast part of the storm. Am I right or way out in left field.
THAT would be something worth seeing.
OK I promise no more ranting!
It's definitely a confusing setup andrew...If a supercell were moving southwest, the hook would more than likely be on the northeast side of the storm...but if it were propagating southwest, as in the Jarrell, TX storm, then the upraft tower and the tornado would still be on the southwest side of the storm...
Reed is going to have to answer that one for you Andrew.... And your right that would be something worth seeing!!!
opps.. Reed posted before I did. flip flop the 12:29 post w/ my 12:32 post and it makes sense.
Sorry such a SLOW typer.
Hi Andrew (re: your first post),
I was also very skepticle the first time I heard about the concept of evapotranspiration from crops contributing enough moisture to affect convection, but since then I have been convinced through numerous conversations with meteorologists on the subject.
One question I have is if this would be going on with native species of plants or if those have better moisture trapping abilities than corn, wheat, etc.
It's some pretty fascinating stuff!
Simon E.
Hey, Why are there not very many people posting today?!?!? There are plenty of weather related issues to talk about... Like the setup tomorrow in canada or the potential severe weather in the central/southern plains. The tornado threat in either setups are not very impressive I know but the hail/damaging wind threat is pretty high.
been too busy...quarter end is near..
Hey there,
Can someone please! check out this link for me and tell me what's aout to happen on friday and sunday. I know there is going to be alot of rain, but what else if anything?
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=nzni&noofdays=all
Thanks,
Tornado warning for York, NE. There have been spotted funnels over the rainbow water tower!! There actually isn't a storm there really, its along an outflow boundry.
Simon I can almost believe it, since I go through Iowa every sumer in August and it has to be about the most oppressive, humid place I have ever been (haven't been too far south a lot, lol). It's also border to border CORN, as far as the eye can see.
I agree it all is very fascinating and needs further study.
Simon, I think the article was saying that the native species don't necessarily trap moisture, but rather they are not "expelling" as much moisture as the cultivated crops, by comparison. That's the way I read it anyway. My understanding of this is that the aridity of the plains in the pre-cultivation era, when native grasses were predominate, was sort of self-fulfilling because those species didn't need as much moisture to thrive, whereas other "cultivated" crops are more moisture dependent by nature. So, as they take in more moisture, they in turn "exhale" more moisture, which over time has created a sort of a peculiar dewpoint increase trend in area of high-density agriculture. ... Or so the research seems to say... I find this to be quite an intriguing topic. It makes me smile to think of all that corn in Iowa conspiring to "breathe out" a MCS! :-D
Hey guys, check Jackie's link to see a sub-tropical low that rotates clockwise! I guess it's still called a sub-tropical low in the Southern Hemisphere, right? ...
Anyway, Jackie, It looks like the North Island area is going to have a pretty substantial storm system, with lots of wind and rain. BUT, things could change a lot between now (Monday) and then (Friday-Sunday) so just keep monitoring it. Things should look more certain one way or another as the week progresses, but it's a little early to get too excited about rain if you need it, or storms if you want to see some. :)
Addition to Matt's post.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HAMILTON AND YORK COUNTIES...
AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BENEDICT...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF YORK...
AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BRADSHAW BY 340 PM CDT
HAMPTON BY 345 PM CDT
This storm looks to be no more than a shower on radar but apparently it is spitting out funnels- moving southwest... just bizarre.
Yes that cell near York looks very interesting. Note the appendage on the northeast side of the cell on the last few scans. The echo tops are above 55,000 now on this thing as well. I wouldn't be surprised if it is tornado warned soon.
It appears there is a new storm starting to grow to the west of Hutchinson, KS.
Tornado warning near Jarrell, Tx. Until 7:45!
nice cell heading my way towards red deer...rock hard convection is filling the skies everywhere!
brandon.. any chance of tornadoes tonight or will limited day time heating prevent come chance of tornadic activity??
sorry meant, some.
BRB...im pretty sure there is no tornado threat for tonight, maybe just the odd pop-up summer time convective storm, nothing to serious. i just watched that VERY high based lp supercell that moved very quickly northeast past red deer...had some nice striations, but died out fast. nice storm nonetheless! its also looking like all the convection that fired up this afternoon is on its last legs and starting to fizzle out.
There is something nasty developing here in leduc....Got really dark FAST!!! What could develop from these??? It is really humid and too calm...really eerie out there!
Probably a dumb question here.. Is it normal to have say 4-5000 CAPE and not be getting massive thunderstorms? I'm kinda curious as to why, even when the lifted, TTotals...and other various indexes all say we should be hiding under our beds praying for mercy, we're getting some cirrus clouds and nothing else. I learnt about T-storm formation and stuff back in flight school.. what am I missing here? (I'm in Winnipeg if anyone wants to explain it for me)
Candy, i think i can answer your question.. nothing too serious like tornadoes will form out of these storms tonight in alberta.The storms are dying down as they head further northeast.Just expect lightning, and of course thunder, maybe some hail, and some strong winds. As quickly as these storms formed, they dissipated just as quickly.. so don't freat for anything too severe. Hopefully this helps. Give me a comment back on how i did on snwering your question.
Massive storm headed for Edmonton Alberta. You can see the distinct signs of hail in it seeing lots of thunder/lighting in the distance in the cell as well. will keep you posted on anything further.
City of Edmonton - St. Albert - Sherwood Park
8:34 PM MDT Monday 23 July 2007
Severe thunderstorm warning for
City of Edmonton - St. Albert - Sherwood Park issued
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.
Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
Thanks BRB!!! It is a relief, it is looking so nasty out I thought for sure we would get a tornado! Glad to hear just some lightning and hail! Keep me updated if you see anything else developing!
I just observed lowering of the cloud wall in this system its very close to my apartment. Wind is picking up considerably. Will continue monitoring.
Looks like Edmonton is going to get it in the next hour.
Leduc should get at least a piece of the one after that, which is out by Buck Lake now.
Rocky Mtn. house has one on the way too.
Watched a cell from Caroline to Red Deer. Looked promising out west but the guts fell out as soon as it got off the foothills and it rained itself out quickly.
The line is moving south, will it still be cooking by the time it gets to the Red Deer area?
Can only hope I guess.
Another sleepless night?
Good question Tim....cant wait for the answer....doing ur storm dance:-Plol
Haha Amanda. At least I managed to get Wednesday right.. least the forecasters are agreeing with me on T-storms. Which should be good being as it's supposed to be 36C (45 with the humidex).. Can't WAIT to see what that causes muahaha.
Heavy rain and lots of lighting so far havent spotted any funnel clouds yet.
i got pics of this beast..im gonna send em to reed... its a nice looking one.
Oh yeah this is a nasty one. Take lots i'm sure Reed will be very interested in this storm.
NICE! we got lines of them coming there storms behind storms developing on the doppler where in for an exciting night.
Yah man we got hit with some good winds here in south edmonton, missed the hail and heavy rain though... got some nice pictures of this storm....was it a super cell? looked like one.
Yah man we got hit with some good winds here in south edmonton, missed the hail and heavy rain though... got some nice pictures of this storm....was it a super cell? looked like one.
Its still down pouring here in northwest edm.
Unconfirmed funnel cloud report in south Edmonton by the international airport
Kain_Dragon how far south? Because there is some crazy stuff going on here in Leduc!!!
that would be the system. Dont be alarmed though unless there is a tornado warning issued or you see it yourself.
Well Tim I am learnin all this as I go when I first started readin more into storms I thought CAPE was everything for a storm and that was all I looked at. Then after spendin some time and talkin to Reed I am learnin more slowly. As well as 2500 plus CAPE ya must also have a low CIN or cap for the storm to break through and with all this for a good storm ya have to have decent windspeed in the atmosphere where it is forming I think reed said at 1km range at 850z 35 knots is ideal for a big storm or higher correct me if I am wrong and I am learning about about dryline now which is somethin else that plays a part in forming severe storms not sure what yet but I am gettin to it LOL. Now I am maybe all wrong in what I am sayin and if I am please tell me I am self teachin myself this with some help from others so any input is good input. Hmm maybe right maybe I look like a fool now not to sure LMAO Or maybe ya know all this already if so sorry :(
well the first storm clouds have past in downtown edmonton, I took some pictures of some interesting cloud formations, I think anyways.
sorry for the spotty pictures, I guess I got rain on my lens.
here is the links
http://i182.photobucket.com/albums/x163/sirtarku/DSC01210.jpg
http://i182.photobucket.com/albums/x163/sirtarku/DSC01209.jpg
http://i182.photobucket.com/albums/x163/sirtarku/DSC01208.jpg
http://i182.photobucket.com/albums/x163/sirtarku/DSC01207.jpg
Nice pics tarku, i got some good ones also, from southwest edmonton close to the international airport... how do i load up my pictures to the internet?
There was an INCREDIBLE LP supercell today that passed just north of Red Deer between 7:00 and 8:00 pm MT this earlier this evening.
Lainey just sent me some pictures, and the structure is textbook, with even a possible funnel. As soon as I hear what she would like the credit to read I'll post them here on the blog.
Severe storms now moving east of Edmonton as of 10:00 pm! Do supercells happen every day this time of year in Alberta!!!
Thanks for all the reports everyone
right on Rob!
Yah it was a pleasnt surprise reed...i got some nice pics i can send you tomorrow...looks like maybe another storm coming in to edmonton soon, could be just rain though....but wow it was an awsome lightshow here, and most of the time it wasnt raining so i could stand outside and watch, wind got bad when a squall line went over us though.
ahhh damn, carvel radar near edmonton is down right now..
Can't wait to see the pics.
I have photos of it from the time the warning was issued till it was almost to Red Deer, and it was anything but a LP cell out there. Heavy rain and reported nickel sized hail.
It formed a big mammatus field on it's east side almost as soon as it got going south of Caroline, then lost it's base just east of Caroline and poured out all the way to Red Deer.
Looked like it was going to die so I left it.
Was surprised to see a warning was issued when I got home. From the hail I guess.
I saw very little lightning and no wind.
I am everywhere Reed. You will not get away from me, and when I see you on the chase.............CHOKE
Yeah we get quite a few supercells here I think it has to do wit hthe mountains but this year had been very active so far I think we really need to get a team together and start chasing these things. Many twisters here go unreported because there are no chasers/spotters watching them cause Alberta is sparsly populated only about 3 million live in a Provance bigger then Texas.
on and Tarku I know downtown very well I knew exactly where you took those from LOL! I was working not far doing security at the Holiday INN last night ^^;