News DetailConditional Severe Wx Threat Today for northwest ND, eastern SK, and western MB
Posted At: July 21, 2007 @ 9:36 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
Despite extreme instability, a strong capping inversion will limit thunderstorm development for most, if not all, of the day in northwest ND, eastern SK, and western MB. However, if storms can initiate, they will likely be severe, producing very large hail and strong straight-line winds. The region with the conditional severe wx threat today is shown in the red shaded area in the selected model forecasts shown here. As seen below, the low-level jet is forecast to be relatively weak, with only around 20-25 knots at best along the instability axis at 850 mb. This weakness should limit the tornado threat, if storms can break through the capping inversion.
As shown in the 12 hr accumulated precipitation forecast by the WRF model for 7:00 pm this evening, the storm coverage is predicted to be rather sparse, due to the strong capping inversion. Still though, the WRF predicts storms will initiate in northwest North Dakota and southeast Saskatchewan by early evening. I would not be surprised to see storms initiate further north between Saskatoon and the Manitoba Border as well, where slightly better wind shear exists. Given the extreme instability, and ample deep-layer shear, these storms will likely be supercells, but with a rather limited tornado threat as mentioned. Stay tuned for updates!
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reed, i love all the post. summer is great for the site.
Sorry guys for not posting. I was grounded from the coumpter AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!
Well at least ill be in the right place if the storms hit...lol just hope the party doesnt get rained out...ill keep the camera handy:-D
The new RUC shows storms initiating only in ND, but the WRF shows storms firing in eastern SK, with slightly better wind shear. If the WRF verifies there will be a few supercells in eastern SK, with a limited tornado threat.
Yes, God needs to be blocked. If it was Chuck Norris, it would have been acceptable.
Anywho, things are looking good out west, and well...as much as I like tornadoes, I like not having it storm when I am painting my house.
Sunday's looking pretty good for all of Southern MB but it might be too early in the day to incorporate the daytime heating. *Crosses fingers it slows down*
Caleb, best way to deal with trolls is to not give them the attention they crave. Ignore them and they go away.. Reed'll just delete the posts once he gets on and it'll be dealt with.
i know i ask this question a lot but is this heading towards chicago and is it gonna last???
it looks strong
is it???
These weather maps would be a lot more useful and professional-looking if they simply showed the provincial borders as well.
Looking at the forecasts it won't be there til midweek and it looks like it'll have most of the energy gone by then. Stuff might happen in the midterm though as that's still 4-5 days off.
sorry meant double.. not couble.. god now im spelling like im an 8 year old.
Thing getting hot for Alberta.
The bad hot, desert hot!!
Fire risk set to soar!!
Do we do forest fires here?
The flop on Thursday has left many area already very dry.
BTW
Torrential Rains in Kugluktuk, Nunuvut
Thunderstorms in Nunuvut right now
Tomorrow afternoon's looking to be fun here. Dewpoints into the 80s, CAPE's at 4500+, Helicity's rather low but still could be interesting. *crosses fingers*
49,000 ft cloud tops in the storm just northeast of Whitewood SK. EC's reporting golfball hail (I suspect bigger in parts) and 100km/h winds (62mph)