News DetailTornadoes possible in Alberta, Canada tomorrow
Posted At: June 29, 2007 @ 12:26 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A jet streak from a large upper trough approaching from the North Pacific will provide sufficient deep-layer wind shear for tornadic supercells over southern Alberta tomorrow (Friday, June 29). Given southwesterly 700 mb flow at 30-40 knots, low-level shear will be sufficient for tornadoes, and with un-capped CAPE values of 2000+ J/kg, the possibility will exist for a few large tornadoes. The WRF forecast 500 mb chart for tomorrow evening is shown above, with the area of highest tornado chances shaded in red. The CAPE/CIN forecast for the same time is shown below. Stay tuned for updates!
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awesome reed...ill be chasing this set up tomorrow and will definetly let you know all the details...
brandon
Holy crap, we never get really good tornadoes. I'm so excited, and I *actually* have the day off from work, too. :D
It's almost midnight in Calgary, and I'm watching some pretty impressive lightning outside my window right now. Time to break out the video cam for some attempted photos.
Any chance this same system gonna hit us in manitoba this weekend?
Oh boy. something in alberta. cant tell exactly if it could hit edmonton.
I am starting to get cabin fever. I hoping some more action will be stirring up in the southern plains in the next couple weeks.
I know we are supposed to get some pretty hot weather this weekend here in manitoba...lets hope it isnt as bad as last weekend. i need to invest in a video camera...lol...Keep us posted...since EC seems to be a little behind you guys...Thanks...amanda
1:19 PM MDT Friday 29 June 2007 Environment Canada Issues a Severe thunderstorm watch for a large portion of alberta stretching from Edmonton south to the U.S. Border
I was just outside for a walk and it's extremely humid out looking good so far! You can really see the jet streams effects on the radar animations on enviro canada's website.
hi reed, there is a little town called ponoka a bit into south-central alberta... any chance that the tornado area extends into there or will we just get hit by some severe t-storms?? lemme know soon
It looks like storms are beginning to initiate east and southeast of Edmonton-Calgary line...the best tornado threat is definitely over southwest AB, but 700 mb flow is a little weak right now. It is forecast to increase closer to 6:00 pm, so the tornado threat could increase dramatically by then in southeast AB, southeast of Edmonton to Calgary.
BRB: Ponoka looks to be west of the tornado chances, but you may get some severe storms rolling off the mountains which could produce some brief spin-ups...I'll be watching the radar closely!
A while back on tv.net there was a discussion about how to get warnings out to citizens on time. Here is an interesting article from Indiana. They are talking about a law REQUIRING weather radios in all mobile homes. Why not? Sounds like a good idea to me. Mobile homes are death traps in tornados.
Law Requires Radios in Ind. Mobile Homes
By RYAN LENZ 06.29.07, 2:19 PM ET
As a deadly tornado bore down on southwestern Indiana in 2005, the National Weather Service issued a radio warning urging people in the twister's path to seek shelter.
But many of the most vulnerable residents didn't hear the alert because they had no radios equipped to receive it. That will change Sunday when Indiana enacts a law requiring mobile homes to have weather radios.
"My family would be here had I known that weather radios existed," said Kathryn Martin, who pushed heavily for the reform after the tornado shattered the Eastbrook Mobile Home Park and killed dozens of people, including three of her relatives.
The Indiana regulation is one of hundreds of new laws taking effect July 1, when most states begin their fiscal year. The rules offer a glance at states top worries and priorities, such as crime, taxes and social policies.
The Indiana tornado hit before dawn on Nov. 6, 2005, with winds estimated around 200 mph. Twenty of the storm's 25 victims were in mobile homes on the outskirts of Evansville, where emergency officials said few had radios or access to shelters.
The Indiana General Assembly responded last year by passing the weather-radio proposal with overwhelming support. The legislation was dubbed "C.J.'s Law" in honor of Martin's 2-year-old son, C.J. Martin, the twister's youngest victim.
A similar effort is under way on the federal level to make the radios a requirement nationwide.
The radios, which cost about $30, operate on frequencies dedicated exclusively to the weather service. Officials say they often broadcast warnings before regular radio and television stations.
Rep. Brad Ellsworth, the southern Indiana sheriff directing rescue efforts at Eastbrook, introduced legislation last week that would require manufacturers to build mobile homes with the radios installed.
"It's one more safety precaution we can take, no different from smoke detectors," Ellsworth said.
More than 20 million Americans live in mobile housing, according to census estimates. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has found that the fatality rate for residents of mobile homes is 10 times greater than those in permanent homes with fixed foundations.
The Manufactured Housing Institute in Washington, D.C., a trade association representing mobile home manufacturers, has said Indiana's law and the federal proposal fall short by failing to require radios in every building.
A tornado last month in Kansas killed 12 people and leveled the farming community of Greensburg. Another twister in Enterprise, Ala., killed eight students when it ripped apart a school in March.
Bruce Savage, an institute spokesman, said tornadoes do not discriminate between buildings.
"They certainly could have benefited from a weather radio," Savage said of the students who died. "So why not make the bill really cover and provide adequate warning to everybody?"
Martin said she doesn't understand resistance to making weather radios a requirement. "You have to know that the storm is coming," she said.
Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed
2:02 PM MDT Friday 29 June 2007
This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds.
Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. If threatening weather approaches take immediate safety precautions.
A warm humid airmass over much of south and central Alberta has the potential to generate severe thunderstorms. This watch area may be extended east and northwards later this afternoon.
This also extend into Sask as well...
I totally agree with that Joe....I live in a house with no basement and living in manitoba. There is no way of knowing if one is headed this way ...there was nothing on the radio about the twister in Elie friday or the one on Sat in Pipestone. So pretty much even if you have batteries in ur radio and the power goes out...we still wont be informed...sad isnt it
Reed. I live in edmonton, do you think any part of that tornado watch system could hit me in the evening times?
Warner county near Milk River and Coutts
2:56 PM MDT Friday 29 June 2007
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Warner county near Milk River and Coutts issued
Cardston county near Del Bonita and Whiskey Gap
2:56 PM MDT Friday 29 June 2007
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Cardston county near Del Bonita and Whiskey Gap issued
At 2:50 PM radar indicates a severe storm currently just on the american side of the border and about to cross into Canada. There have been some reports of storm rotation associated with this cell.
The cell SSW of Taber is looking very interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if this cell produces or already has. The best environment is in extreme southern/southeastern AB. This cell has also turned right.
This is the cell the severe tstorm warning above was issued for. I bet this thing is producing some massive hail as well.
That cell looks beautiful it's very well defined, you can see it develop a clockwise rotation and the center intensified dramatically as it crossed into Canada.
I totally remember that storm that hit in SW Indiana - it was a rogue, and formed maybe 20 or so miles west of here (that's right, in Northern Arkansas!), scooting ENE and eventually doing what it did in the Northern KY, SW Indiana area. It was the first time I had ever really seen real anvil-crawler lightning close-up, and it was so intense/continuous that I could not watch for very long before having to turn away. All I could think of at the time was that thing about people having seizures from seeing too much flashing light, and I can believe it!
But more to the point, I think it's a great idea about requiring weather radios in moblie homes (or how about ALL homes??), but it would have to be the kind that turns itself on when there's a warning, and one would think it would have to be something that did not rely solely on batteries or electricity to work...
The anvil looks very large, circular, and crisp...I bet it's a beautiful supercell...and it's over an unpopulated area at least right now. It probably should have a tornado warning right now, but I bet there is no ground verification (even though shouldn't have to have it with a strong circulation on radar).
The weather radio idea is great...thanks for posting that Joe. I remember that storm as well!
Hey Reed, I've been following this site since the Pipestone video hit the news. I have to say the footage was great, but the fact that you forecasted what appears to be 3 days in advance is truly incredible. It now also looks possible that you forecasted an event in Alberta as well. Being a resident of Winnipeg, I'm aware that we get a number of tornadoes here. I guess my question is, what are we doing wrong in our forecasting here? Maybe better phrased as what can we do right? I saw my first one last year just north of Winnipeg. I believe it was an F1 (someone correct me if I'm wrong). There was no forecast or watch of any kind. I'm not posting this to complain of what we have. I'm posting this to try and get understanding of what we have.
hey John are you talking about the one that hit in and around the first weekend in august last year? the one that hit in and around grand beach? i think that one was an F2 or 3....I live just north of the city and watched it roll in ...it was amazing and scary at the same time....I dunno but i think we need to get what reed has for storm prediction up here...lol
Whatever you do, don't go with the cloud-of-free-tailed-bats method. That one has shown to be ineffective defense, fwiw.
Hi there can anyone tell me if I need to be on the lookout in Okotoks Alberta. It is currently 4pm. Thanks
Severe thunderstorm watch for:
Okotoks-High River-Claresholm
THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
this came off the weather network.com...figured id let ya know, tayla
Little of topic but anyone knows wots the best video camera for capturing clouds and lightning?
I just read a book called Storm Warning not to long ago that is focused on the Moore 99 tornado. It gives insight into the history of storm prediction in the US, and according to that the US had to endure alot of tornadoes before the current system has come along.
hey reed, I was wondering if this storm would hit southern manitoba because i am goin to camp and i dont want it to wreck the weekend.
I'd recommend the Sony VX-2100 or the HDR FX1..with the HD camera you can get 2.5 megapixel stills.
Derek: Saturday night through Sunday could be very active with severe storms for southern Manitoba. The low-level shear is not forecast to be strong, so there probably won't be much of a tornado threat. We'll be posting continuous blog updates throughout this severe weather event.
These storms in Alberta would be very hard to chase...they are FLYING
The storm that tracked along the border looked supercellular and was moving well right of the surrounding cells. I wonder if it produced a tornado.
hi all
I am new to this forum,just found this great page while reading about the Manitoba weather last weekend.
Looks like the extension of tornado alley is becoming a reality up here in Canada.We always got the odd one but can never remember them being this freqnent.
The system that just passed over Taber is now looking pretty close to Brooks(a small city of !0,000 maybe a little more residents)
I pray for all that get caught in one of these bad buggers
Hi Jonathan Strike,
The tornado you're thinking of might (emphasis on might) be from August 23rd last year. On that day there was a large cell just north of Winnipeg that had looked to me like a giant spiral on radar. It produced a brief tornado that was rated F0 or F1. Later that day, another tornado, this time a high-end F2, struck a farm near La Broquerie (I'll try to look that up to get more deatails for you).
The one that killed an elderly lady at Gull Beach (or Gull Lake, I've seen the area referred to by both names) was an F2 on August 5th of 2006. I remember that one because we in Ontario were watching those cells very closely (but they crapped out before causing damage in NW Ontario). It had been only three days after a fairly big outbreak in southern and central Ontario, so we were a little edgy!
I apologize if this seems pessimistic, but if we warned about every time the models looked like they were setting up for an outbreak several days in advance, we would have a vast majority of false alarms. I'm sure if you talk to any storm chaser, they will have a good number of stories about how they busted because of a bad forecast based on model runs. Models do not handle mesoscale and boundary layer dynamics very well.
In fact, we've also had a few days where the model data said nothing was going to happen, but luckily some skilled forecasters were able to look at the real data and put out watches and warnings just in time!
And Reed, you may be wondering why some very intense supercells don't get tornado warned. A great many forecasters have learned not to put tornado warnings on storms unless they approach populated areas. This would drag down veification scores because EC almost never investigates storms based on radar signatures alone, and would never confirm that a tornado had happened. Someone has to report the damage, and that damage has to reach a certain threshold, before a team is sent to check it out. This is why I think we get a hell of a lot more than "80" tornadoes a year, which is the often quoted official figure.
Simon E.
Hi lakes, it's true, we've been sending our tornados north to you. It's revenge for all those dang arctic cold fronts you keep sending down here. You knock it off, we'll knock it off, okay?
Thx Reed! Always nice to get advice from the expert ;)
you up for a game of poker later :P lol love that game...
btw next year i'm making the great leap to oklahoma!
lol...Hi Joe surfer
at least those arctic cold fronts are safe if you have some nice warm clothes and a cozy woodstove.
trading arctic cold fronts for tornadoes just isn't fair ; )
Hey Reed, I have subscribed to your videos on youtube and have bookmarked this site. I am very amused in the way you guys are able to predict storms better than our national weather service.
Just wondering if there is any chance these cells will make it into Southern Saskatchewan, more specifically Swift Current , Saskatchewan. The City Fair is currently active and will be until Monday and I am wondering weather the population should be on look out for some severe weather. This is the current weather watch posted and currently at 6:00pm Swift Current - Herbert - Cabri - Kyle - Lucky Lake
4:56 PM CST Friday 29 June 2007
Severe thunderstorm watch for
Swift Current - Herbert - Cabri - Kyle - Lucky Lake continued
Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening.
This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds.
Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. If threatening weather approaches take immediate safety precautions.
Severe thunderstorms which developed over southern Alberta and western Montana late this afternoon are expected to drift northeastward into southwestern Saskatchewan this evening. Golfball size hail has been reported with these storms. In addition to hail, these storms will have the potential of producing damaging wind gusts and slight risk of a tornado.
Hi Lakes,
I can tell you right now that the frequency isn't the thing that's changing. It's making the news because of the F4 Elie tornado and Reed and Dave's vid of the Pipstone one. Take a trip down to your local newpaper archive and look up July 18th, 1977, July 21st 1987, July 24th, 2000, etc. Also, a few of the reports that were given as "tornado sighted" have turned out to be very significant after a little digging. The papers will not tell you, for instance, that the tornado near Neepawa on July 24th, 2000, was over half a kilometer wide and on the ground for over half an hour. It lifted right before it hit the town, so nobody in the press said anything about it.
Because they usually don't hit anything, tornadoes in Manitoba (and most of Canada) really don't get reported in the national press, or even some times the local press!
Another Ontario example: Last year, I was trying to confirm the occurence of a few tornado in an area where we saw some very intense little supercells go through. They weren't especially big, but they were spinning furiously! The local reporter hadn't heard any reports, but after a few weeks I was able to confirm that at least three tornadoes had stuck the area covered by that newspaper! Dozens of cottagers had watched one of them take down a swath of trees on the opposite side of their lake, but no one told EC about it, and it didn't even make it to the local paper!
Simon E.
Simon, what you describe reminds me of the following article from the other day
"Leave storm p-o-r-n to professionals, urge weather experts"
"This is not about getting the best YouTube video, official warns after Manitoba tornadoes"
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/manitoba/story/2007/06/26/tornado-viz.html?ref=rss
Although I understand their warning about citizens and non-professionals rubbernecking when there's a stovepipe in the area, it seems to me that any attention to a tornadic event, any attention at all, even if it's in the form of a Youtube video, is something that raises the public's awareness of the dangers and makes Mom and Dad think, "Hmm, geez, now what do we need to do to make sure we and our kids are safe in our home."
I would think that the internet and its powers would result in better awareness for all even in rural areas.
Like i said before it will take someone getting seriously injured or killed before EC will do anything more about warning us about them...maybe now that the one happened in elie and has some that close to really hurting someone maybe now they will do something....i dont know how many tornados ive been through here and around manitoba but theres been a few...that went through our farm property in 91 or 92 got news coverage etc.but nothings been done since then. and just because manitoba for instance is not as well populated doesnt give them an excuse not to find a way to notify people better....alot of the rural area is covered with farms etc and those ppl still need to know. LOL and it still doesnt explain how reed and his crew saw the storm coming 3 days before it hit...shouldnt EC be able to do the same thing?i dunno...just crazy...lol we should hire reed to come up here to do our weather...haha
Hi Simon E.
I agree with you and realize that many go unreported.But i do think that severe weather in cental Canada is becoming a way more common occurance.
I come from a small city in NW Ontario.Monday morning in a small town about an hour from here a storm ripped a roof off a motel and threw vehicles,one transport truck. There was also very extensive damage to Ministry of Transportation building. 2 years ago a storm blew across eagle lake and sheered about a 1/4 mile line of trees all at about a height of 15 feet. I had to go remove a huge tree about 4 feet diameter out of a roof of a cabin. This tree also snapped at about 15 feet from the trunk and went through the roof bottom first 100 feet away
there is so much space here in Canada and who knows maybe we have been lucky with storms hitting mostly remote areas
I agree 100%! All I was saying is that this is a perception thing; we've been getting big tornadoes for ever, it's just never gotten the attention it deservers, which is happening right at this very moment because of the internet.
And the comment about the models was just a reality check; I'm sure those of us who have a serious interest in weather would pay very close attention if EC gave a heads up every time a setup for severe weather could be seen a few days in advance, I'm just worried that the general population would put those on ignore very quickly because they wouldn't pan out very often. But hell, I could be dead wrong! Could be that they would save many lives and that I'm not giving the general population enough credit; I really don't know at this point...
I must admit that I was really put off by my ex-boss's comments about generating "weather p-o-r-n," and I have not idea what they mean by "professionals." I can tell you right now that there are people who have no formal training that are in fact better (let alone much more enthousiastic) than some of the forecasters working at EC. It's just like any other job; some people are better at it than others!
Simon E.
Amanda, actually I think it's the other way around. You should pay Reed to STAY AWAY from your area. Whenever he shows up, there are all kinds of wedges and crap. Think about it
btw cors forgot to ask in my last post...where do u play poker...lol....i play too on full tilt...
I dunno if i were EC i would put out warnings even if nothing did happen at least ppl would have the chance just in case something did..ya know what i mean...lol...simon did u used to work at cbc?(the whole exboss's thing)
LOL yeah i guess your right....but if he were here wed have warning...lol...
Well, some of the forecasters at the Ontario office went chasing out west last summer and busted pretty bad (at least in terms of large tornadoes). Maybe they should be transfered to the Winnipeg office and that would solve your problems!
And Amanda, your absolutely right. The fervour about tornadoes in Canada has died down considerably since the Edmonton in 1987. It was part of the reason that we now have a national network of doppler radars (which one person, I beleive wrongly, said was an "over-reaction" to the Edmonton and Barrie tornadoes; go figure). Now, I'm talking about this on a national level, Alberta also had the Pine Lake tornado in 2000, so now maybe there's the perception that it's only an Alberta problem...
And lakes, I'm tempted to tell you that it really is a perception thing (there is so much more unpopulated land that by pure chance most will miss populated areas). But there is some data to back up the possibility that tornadoes are increasing in the western provinces, if only by a little bit. One researcher decided to look at the number of days that a tornado was reported in the western provinces (looking at just the number of reported tornadoes is not very useful because of reporting biases), and it looks like you r season has increased in length by about 10 to 15 days in the last century or so. That might not soound like much, but over the years the numbers can really add up!
Simon E.
Hi Amanda,
Nope. Worked for EC for three summers, may go back for a project soon.
I got a look at the inner workings of a government office. I was both impressed by the skill, knowledge and determination of many of the people there. I was also shocked and scared by the level of incompetence that others showed...
So I guess it was like any other job!
Simon E.
LOL yeah pretty much...i think every work place has them....just a question tho about EC....its it there responsiblity to make sure the television or radio broadcasters give out the warnings...or do they give them the warnings and then its up to the stations?
Hey Reed, I have subscribed to your videos on youtube and have bookmarked this site. I am very amused in the way you guys are able to predict storms better than our national weather service.
Just wondering if there is any chance these cells will make it into Southern Saskatchewan, more specifically Swift Current , Saskatchewan. The City Fair is currently active and will be until Monday and I am wondering weather the population should be on look out for some severe weather. This is the current weather watch posted and currently at 6:00pm Swift Current - Herbert - Cabri - Kyle - Lucky Lake
4:56 PM CST Friday 29 June 2007
Severe thunderstorm watch for
Swift Current - Herbert - Cabri - Kyle - Lucky Lake continued
Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening.
This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds.
Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. If threatening weather approaches take immediate safety precautions.
Severe thunderstorms which developed over southern Alberta and western Montana late this afternoon are expected to drift northeastward into southwestern Saskatchewan this evening. Golfball size hail has been reported with these storms. In addition to hail, these storms will have the potential of producing damaging wind gusts and slight risk of a tornado.
Actually Jon, Kevin Martin of the OWS is the best there is. www.ontarioweatherservice.com. He's been forecasting this area is the best at it and tipped Reed off. I like the videos Reed but those who claim you have powers to frecast large events in record timing are way off. go to the site you guys and gals and see his project unfold.. its pretty coo..
Simon, I'm not a meteorologist, but I'm guessing that the death/damage from tornados over the years in Canada as compared to the size of the population has been quite small, thus the general resistance to better warnings and to bigger spending on the problem. I could be wrong. As you say, all it would take would be one gigantic hit on a population center like Winnipeg or somewhere for everything to change. God forbid. Stinkin tornados. Whoever invented those things should be shot.
by the way Reed, when are we going to see more videos up on today's chase. the storms look really cool. ^_^
Im a big fan of his videos guys... but the forecasting is pretty cool watching it live on that site I gave you. My Brother told me about it and I went to check it out, its pretty decent. MORE VIDEOS REED!! LOL! MORE PLEASE! :P
Hey Sherai, let's keep that OWS spam outta here. Don't latch onto this website like a lamprey now.
What happens is EC issues public weather statements; watches, warnings, advisories and things called "Special Weather Statements." These get sent out to media outlets and it is up to the station to transfer the data to the public.
Here's the problem; media outlets are not legally bound to broadcast these statments, it is left up to them. Sometimes they are too slow to update them, sometimes they misread their meaning and don't really know or appreciate how important they are. Cable and satellite channels go on automatic in the evening, so again these can't be communicated to the public. At the extreme, I've heard rumours of radio stations actually tossing out tornado warnings as they popped out of the fax without reading them!
The big issue here is the CRTC. They are afraid of confronting any resistance from the brodcast media if any sort of mandate was put out that legally bound them to broadcast public safety statments put out by the weather office or any other government organization.
I hope that answers your question...
Simon E.
p.s. There is some hope, though, I know that on provincial or municipal scales, some regions are taking the public safety thing seriously, like the new system that's been established in Alberta.
Hi Joe,
Yeah, you're right, and that's something that I've actually been working on recently, so I may have some better answers soon-ish. The real question is, does the lower frequency in Canada, combined with the population distribution, really account for the much lower fatality rate in Canada? The highest number of deaths here was in Regian, Sask in 1912, with "only" 28. Some events in the US have killed over 200 people in a single town or city! So, is there something special at work here, or are we just incredibly lucky?
I can't count the number of near death experinces I've heard about just from recent events. I have no idea why the Combermere, ON torndo last year (Aug 2, the Ottawa Citizen has some pics) didn't kill anyone. It went right over a resort area with cabins and RV's, smaller trees flying through the air like spears while the giant pines came down on numerous cabins and cars, many of them occupied. 4 minor injuies; that's it.
Simon E.
p.s. You mentioned the guy who invented tornadoes... we should track down his buddy who invented hurricanes, too.
I think Environment Canada did a very good job with the June 23 event. They issued a tornado watch at ~11:00 am CST, which was 4-5 hours before any surface-based initiation. Even when the eventual tornadic supercell was rather high-based, it was given a tornado warning because of the strong rotation indicated on radar. This was at least 1 hour before the first tornado touched down. I don't think the problem is with the forecasters, it seems that the issue is possibly in relaying the warnings to the public.
When we left three days before the chase event, we knew there was a huge possibility the models would change, and that a 3500 mile clear-sky bust was a definite possibility. I recall several events where the models were predicting a tornado outbreak the day before, and nothing happened. Another example is May 3, 99...A slight risk was issued for the Southern Plains the morning of the outbreak, and by evening, there was an F-5 tornado on the ground 10 miles north of the Storm Prediction Center..The conditions materialized very rapidly on May 3, so the forecast was extremely difficult.
The fact that we predicted a tornado event in SK/MB, and saw a tornado there three days later is also extremely lucky, because our intercept rate can only be as high as model forecast accuracy will allow. However, the human element comes into play in the interpretation of the various model output. We've been watching and analyzing Canadian severe weather events for years now, and are very familiar with the trends and biases in the models. It seems that the models we are familiar with do not perform particularly well in Canada...We hypothesize that this may be because Canada comprises the northern edge of the data domain. Still though, many of these errors are predictable, and that's how knowledge of model trends/biases is important.
Given a sparse population and storm spotter density, I'm sure Environment Canada has extreme difficulty in verifying their warnings. We plan on storm chasing several more times this year in Canada, and hope we can help with this deficiency. We definitely should have been in Alberta today!
Agreed. Hey Reed, where are you now if you didn't go to Alberta? Yeah Alberta was a great spot today still is.. I saw that last night over 24 hours ago that it was a great spot and looks like it's turning for the better.
Just caught some news from Idaho re: tornado warning and wind damage... looks like just south of the border
where is that site that you were looking at..im interested in looking at it too...
Thanks
Just on the cable tv feed from the states... KREM and KHQ were both showing it
Tornado watch for:
Leader-Gull Lake
Tornado watch for:
Shaunavon-Maple Creek-Val Marie-Cypress Hills
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE RISK OF TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL..FLOODING RAIN..DEADLY LIGHTNING AND POWERFUL WINDS. USE THIS TIME TO SECURE OUTDOOR PROPERTY AND TO ENSURE FAMILY MEMBERS AND CO-WORKERS ARE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD THE SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH. ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR WEATHERADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH OR IF YOU FEEL THREATENED DO NOT WAIT FOR WARNINGS TO TAKE ACTION..TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. SHOULD YOU SPOT A FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO...AND ONLY IF IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...YOU CAN CALL 1-800-239-0484 TO REPORT YOUR SIGHTING. PLEASE NOTE THIS PHONE NUMBER IS FOR REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER ONLY.
Amanda:
From the web:
khq
"Weather causes power outages in the area
SPOKANE, Wash. - Around 9500 Avista customers in North Idaho are currently without power, around 800 in Spokane. Around 40 Inland Power and Light customers are without power in the Suncrest area. Kootenai Electric estimates around 4,000 customers without power in Kootenai County."
krem
"WEATHER Storm Damage: Funnel clouds, trees down, power lines snapped, property damaged..."
hey reed i love these types of storms.. there is a rodeo going on right now here in Ponoka,Ab. i was wondering what the weather will be like tomorrow(saturday, june 30)... oh and right now its about 9:15 p.m. or close to it.. so i was wondering if theres still any chane of some severity in these cells chasing through Ponoka,Ab. get back to me when ya can!!
hey everyone...just got back from chasing all day here in alberta...for me it was a bust! shitty, humid overcast sky all day...you couldnt see towers go up at all. the only cell that came up was the one that came up from montana, but i couldnt commit to go that far south. it bummed me out! but a cell fired up east of hanna at around 5pm and i watched it for 2 hours hoping it would organize but it didnt do a thing. produced a shit load of low based scud, thats about it. you win some and you lose some.
i was playing from hanna-brooks-taber and now i see a nice looking cell heading east towards brooks, right where i was all day...to bad its not 3-7 pm right now!
arghghgh...thats the beauty of weather.
BRB: There will probably be some morning showers in Ponoka, but it will clear out fast and should be dry and sunny the rest of the day.
Brandon: Those cells near the border looked good for awhile and died out...I was wondering if you were on those.
The cell to your east you mentioned looked good on radar. Have you heard of any reports?
I see they issued a tornado watch over extreme southeast AB and southwest SK...it looks like those storms have gusted out for now, but the ones approaching from the west could become tornadic since the low-level jet is intensifying.
Just a hypothesis to add to the "Why don't more people get hurt/killed by tornados in Canada"-debate.
Could it be because there is a higher number of average homes with basements in Canada than in the US? As well, there are less mobile home parks. This probably helps when added with the lower population. Basically, there are less of us Canucks and we're better at hiding in safe structures. ;)
The mobile homes are a big problem. Mix more mobile homes with higher tornado frequencies, and you get trouble. A lot of the big toll killer tornadoes of late genreated a large percentage (sometimes most or all) of their fatalaities in mobile or modular homes.
House constrution is better (genrally) here too, considering that a some tornado prone states have either no building code or a "voluntary" code, which are complete bull (why would most contractors spend more money on building houses if they don't have to?)
Basements do save lives. If those folks in Elie didn't have a basement, who knows what would have happened.
Time of day could be a factor too. We don't get very many significant tornadoes at night or early in the morning when everyone is home sleeping. The states on the other hand, get plenty, especially in the Gulf States and deep south. Even Wisconsin, which is as far north as Southern Ontario (generally) has had a few violent tornadoes in the dead of night. Ontario hasn't seen that, at least not in the past few deacades.
So its probably a combination of dozens of factors. Anyone else have any ideas?
Simon E.
Never thought about it before but makes sense with the whole mobile home thing...we dont have many up here and yes most of our homes have basements...(lol im one of the few exceptions, whoever built my house was an idiot...lol) I totally agree with Simon...its most likely a combination of all of these factors....Thanks god for good construction and being able to watch ur dog run away for three days ...in the rural areas...lol...thankfully we arent in high populated areas...
What are the reasons why we dont get tornados at night here...anyone know?
Hey guys, I'm here in coeur d alene north idaho and that storm hit us hard before it went to Canada. We had funnel clouds here. A cloud went over my apartment with slight rotation. Power lines were sparking and the wind was the strongest I have ever seen. The storm hit us fast. One minute it was breezy, the next it was chaos. I've never seen a storm hit coeur dalene quite like this. Trees are down everywhere across town and a lot of people are still have no power. Storms never scare me, but this one gave me the shakes. the wind was so strong it rattled the apartment.
Shawna, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho
That's amazing Shawna!
Did you take any pictures??
I got some pix. A few of the storm coming in, one of the cloud over my apartment complex during the heart of the storm, and pix of the storm leaving. That cloud over my apartment was so creepy...I recognized it from your videos....I've NEVER seen that cloud formation here...the further it went away, the less the wind. We even had tornado warnings in central idaho. I can take more pictures of the downed trees tomorrow...its messy out there lol
Reed, if you ever come to Alberta on a day like today, I don't suppose I could bribe you to take a chase-hungry meteorology student from Calgary out on the drive, could I? :D
The issue with OWS. I talked to kevin several weeks ago in his chat on his site. When I saw his maps he wanted me to see for his "tornado forcast" there were dots and blobs all over the US. When I asked him about his formula he always refers to he wouldn't tell me. I looked at his and compared his maps to some of the forcast models and only 10 % of the forecast shadows were in the areas tornados may happen. Now I am not saying anything bad about Kevin or anybody at OWS. Because it's the weather and the weather is unpredictable. Like the sudden storm chase I had on June 18 in North Texas there were no signs on the models showing any type of tornado probability. But things happend at the last second and the conditions were favorable and there were 3 warned storms with 5 different tornado warnings in a 6 hour period! The SPC didn't have anything previously that day for any tornado activity on the convective outlooks, or even severe storms! It's the weather! OWS didn't have anything down for North Texas either! You know it doesn't matter how advanced the models are or your forecasting methods. It all has alot of room for error. We have to remember we all forcast not to be right, but because we all love the weather! When it comes down to it we do it because we love to. I make forcast everyday looking at models, satilite images. winds profiles and so forth. But even after all that info i take in I still go back and check the NWS and SPC to see if I overlooked something. One person can't forcast a huge area like the USA it takes a team of people. Every Storm Chaser I know including myself will talk to eachother and communicate to get ideas and see things from different points! It's all networking! So if he has a problem with SPC thats his problem because when it comes down to it we all do it for the same reason. Yeah he wants longer warning for people to try and save them thats fine. We all wish that and hope for that. Thats most every storms chasers, meteorologist goal. But it's already bad enough when large portions of the public ignores Warnings in the first place. There were people pumping gas at the gas station next to us on June 18 Pilot Point TX chase knowing there was a tornado warning! They didn't want to be late to work. Luckly no Tornado touched down. The NWS and SPC does a great job. One more thing to add and I will never talk about any of this again! We all come to this site to enjoy what Reed and his chase team give to us and science! WE come here for entertainment and education. His Site Tornadovideos.net is all over National news and Tv people see that and come in here to check it out. They come in here to see a professional quality site and then come into here and then see a bunch BS. Lets talk weather. Everybody take care.
I will be going of to Norman OK in Fall of 08 to persue my degree in meteorology. and to have another excuse to chase more storms!! I feel kinda old going to college. I will be 23 next year when I go! Oh well better then being 40 wishing that I had gone.
We are getting some heavy rain right now in North Texas. I am waiting for them to issue a flash flood warning. I got an image saved off of my radar that is bizzare I can't figure out what it is i will post it on my site tomorrow maybe some of you guys can tell me what it is.
Shawna, here is a short news item on the storms in your general region (Creston is just across the border from Idaho in southeast BC)
Kootenays hit by "freak" windstorm
CanWest News Service
Saturday, June 30, 2007
A severe windstorm tore through the Kootenays last night, injuring several people - two critically - damaging houses, knocking down powerlines and partially ripping the roof off an RCMP detachment.
"We just had a freak windstorm," said Creston works department foreman Doug Ryckman about 45 minutes after the storm hit. "It's just like a mini-tornado touched down in the southern part of town. It took down several trees and power lines and we lost part of our metal roofing on our RCMP building, and there's lots of house damage."
Wayne Androsoff, an ambulance dispatch superintendent for Creston and Cranbrook, said paramedics had transported two people in Creston who were in critical condition and four others who suffered non-critical injuries, although he could not be more specific.
Between the two communities, Androsoff said he had received about a dozen emergency calls and had brought on seven additional ambulances to deal with fallout from the storm.
Ryckman said the storm took less than 10 minutes to pass through Creston, a town of about 5,000 people in the Kootenay region. Environment Canada had not yet determined yesterday whether the storm was a mini-tornado or the downdraft from a severe thunderstorm, said meteorologist Reg Dunkley.
He said winds had reached up to 108 km/h, rare for the interior of the province.
© Times Colonist (Victoria) 2007
Here's the article from Shawna's area, Spokane / Coeur d'Alene. There's even a note of a brief tornado warning in Orofino, ID which is quite a bit more south.
http://www.spokesmanreview.com/breaking/story.asp?ID=10523
Simon, re, "Basements do save lives. If those folks in Elie didn't have a basement, who knows what would have happened."
What gets me is the Greensburg tornado. The population was ~1400, but only about 10 people were killed, even though the entire town was basically scoured from the face of the earth. I have to assume it was because most homes in that particular town had basements. Since that small town's population has been dwindling over the decades, I imagine most houses were older and built during the times when people actually thought to put in basements. If the town had been recently growing, there may have been cheaper developments and maybe a trailer park or two and a lot more tragedy. I've tried looking for survivor stories from that event to get more information on it out of general interest but have only found one or two. I'd like to read the human angle on that one and get some anecdotes. Did many people drive away? Did most hide in basements? Maybe it's too soon after the event for any journalist to compile that stuff. The Fargo event from 50 years ago, though, had rafts of personal stories in the newspaper.
I apologize for keeping this ball rolling, but I think it would be inexcusable if no one chimed in after the above post to mention that the folks at OWS were given many, many "chances" - far too many in the minds of most of the readers here, I'm sure. They essentially banned themselves from this site because they exhibited a *pattern* of offensive behavior here. Moreover, they do not seem to be accustomed, or willing to adjust, to the traditional manners in which reasonable people communicate with one another on a public forum. Obviously, if any of them had come here and consistently conducted themselves like any other person "in the field" who feels like they have something valuable to add, then there absolutely would never have been a problem - in fact they would have been welcomed, which they were up until things got out of hand. I think it's safe to say that until OWS addresses its own PR problems, they won't be taken as seriously as they'd hope, and this outright banning will follow them wherever they go.
We now return to our regularly scheduled programming. :)
Thats all i had to say...and i agree we need to chime it down a bit, but everyone is entitled to there own opinions.
Ben, no offense, but it's ironic that you are accusing people of being conceited for being fed up with a guy that labels himself the "meteorologist in charge" everywhere he possibly can, declares war on the SPC and NOAA in forums to draw attention to his site, and constantly boasts about his ostensible forecasts while making hilarious internet tough guy threats towards anyone who questions him. He also shoots isobars through his eyeballs ever since he was struck by lightning.
I definitely agree with you that his heart is probably in the right place, but if his online personality is any indication he has serious insecurity issues, and it's neither in the interests of the website admins nor the forum frequenters to have those issues be a recurring source of conflict in what should be a topical discussion.
ChaserBurns, I wouldn't worry too much about being 23 and entering college. I've got several years on you and a previous BA, and I'm just now changing career paths and entering OU for met.
Hey, I was just checking to see how bad the flooding situation is right now. Somebody please respond. Thanks!
Jon
Reed's goal is to run a high quality site and encourages everyone to post with comments and questions. We both greatly appreciate all of you who are posting and enjoy reading your comments, questions, and experiences. He and I and others are constantly talking about ways to improve tornadovideos.net. Unfortunately, if someone is continually adding posts that are overly negative or contribute nothing, eventually, Reed has to ban them. Otherwise a blog quickly descends into complete trash, which has happened a couple times this spring. With us being on the road, it is hard to monitor and catch things as quickly as we would like. As long as the post is contributing to the discussion, you have nothing to worry about. We don't mind people questioning things, even Reed's, mine, and Dave's methods in chasing, because it encourages productive discussion. But if someone is constantly attacking us, the SPC, the NWS, each other, etc. it causes the site to lose value for those who are here to learn and contribute.
Jonathan: the rain the past 24 hours or so hasn't been as heavy and widespread, at least here in Oklahoma. There is still major flooding extending all the way from TX, through OK and KS, and into the midwest. However, the models continue to show more heavy rain possible through Monday or Tuesday so things could begin to deteriorate again.
I recall a recent post in which Reed wished Kevin well and even offered to help him with any questions he had with met courses. This is pretty east to figure out. Reed is on his way to obtaining a doctorate in met. Reed, Joel and the rest of their crew are perhaps the greatest and youngest videographers of severe weather ever! Souds like jealousy and envy to me. As far as the old school chasers criticising Reed and Joel for getting to close; jealousy strikes again. Life is tough. If a man is willing to risk his life in order to set himself apart from the pack, then so be it. To the victors go the spoils. If you are envious of these pioneers its because you dont possess the balls that they do.
This site is great. I love reading the views from experienced meteorologists like Simon, Reed, Don G. (and whoever else I'm leaving out), the tales from the other chasers, and the posts from people from all over the US & Canada (even Germany, The Netherlands, and England were chipping in) who are just interested and want to learn more. I really like the way when there's an event somewhere, such as Alberta or Manitoba or Idaho, that there are actual people in their homes who let us know what they are seeing or doing or just feeling. The piston that keeps this engine chuggin is the tv.net videos from the field. All in a clean format. A year from now this could be the premier severe-weather forum if it isn't already.
PS, to Jason Fill, another disallowed set of characters (besides s-c-r-i-p-t, and two hyphens followed by a space) is a single apostrophe at the end of a word followed by a space, such as when creating a possessive of a plural word or just when using single apostrophes to highlight a word, fwiw.
Hi Joe,
It would be a good idea to find some way to do this kind of research systematically, get as close as you can to getting accounts from everyone who was in the path. You can find a report on the deaths and injuries from the May 3, '99. It appeared in the journal "Weather and Forecasting" (see link below). It also has a number of rerences, so you could track down a lot of good papers on the subject (haven't had the chance to do it myself yet).
And Amanda,
I believe the nocturnal low-level jet is the key to major nocturnal tornadoes in the Gulf Coast and Deep South of the US. If you get incredible shear values and winds are not unidirectional along the front, you don't need big CAPE for strong/ violent tornadoes. And I didn't mean to say we get no tornadoes at night here, though. And considering that derecho's also pose a significant wind damage threat, that I think is the biggest concern here. The July 15th, 1995 derecho that went across Ontario, New York and a few other reagions also produced tornadoes. An F2 struck the town of Bridgenorth at 2 or 3 in the morning.
For more on derechos, go to the SPC site, there should be a link on the left called "About Derechos."
For the paper on deaths and injuries in the May 3 99 event (in PDF or Html), do a google search for (May 3 1999 + deaths +injuries).
Sorry, the message board didn't let me post the actual links for some reason.
Cheers,
Simon E.
p.s. I should clarify that I'm not a meteorolgist yet; still working on the whole University aspect of it...
Should clarify here...
Reason I mentioned derechos is because they tend to carry on through the night and into the late morning hours before crapping out (assuming they crap out). They are responsible for major forest blowdowns (some on the order of a few thousand square kilometers of forests damage; e.g. June 23, 2005 in North Dakota, Manitoba, and NW Ontario, w/ about 4500 plus square kilomters of forest damage mapped out in Ontario alone) which can be very bad news for resort areas, camgrounds, etc. All this is compounded by the nocturnal occurence of many of these wind storms.
When you get air moving at 150km/hr or more, it really doesn't matter if it's spinning or not; it's still gonna make a giant mess (like what we saw in Ignace, Ontario a few days ago)!
Simon E.
Hi Simon,
Great point about the low-level jet...
The intensification of the LLJ after ~00z has been a huge player in the large tornadoes on the Plains this year as well. Many of the large tornadoes we saw this year, especially on the Southern Plains, occurred just after sunset when the LLJ was rapidly intensifying, CIN was still low, and the pressure perturbations associated with the mesocyclone could still maintain a surface-based updraft.
Given the larger number of storm chasers of recent, these large nighttime tornadoes are now getting documented. In the past, many of these nocturnal tornadoes likely were not reported unless they did damage. We believe that the "magic hour" for tornadoes is more like 9:00-10:00 pm or so, rather than earlier in the evening as suggested in literature.
Good luck on your studies!
Tornado watch for SW Missouri ... we have a pretty decent cell south of my county here, in Independence CO, AR. Not in the watch area, but I'm keeping my eye on it.
Reed,
I agree with you up to a point on the diurnal tornado maximum perhaps being shifted a bit later in the evening than current research would suggest. However, it seems to me this may be primarily confined to outbreak-type scenarios, where the cap remains very weak through the evening, and sometimes even all night long (e.g., Greensburg, KS).
For the more average, non-outbreak tornado scenario, I think the cap may usually be too strong by 9-10pm, especially earlier in the season (and farther south) when radiational cooling sets in well before then. In this case I would think the storms would rapidly become elevated above their cold pools around sunset, with tornado probabilities diminishing in tandem.
So my thinking is that the diurnal maximum for tornadoes is probably later than commonly thought due to underreporting, but not as late as 9-10pm. But that's just my opinion, I haven't quantified this objectively by any means.
Oh jeez people cut the drama. This a tornado website where enthusiests share their experiences and comments. Not highschool!
Moving on.....
Well earlier in the season 9-10 is further after sunset. I was implying 1-2 hours after sunset.
To bad that Reed and his team wasn't in Swift Current, Saskatchewan last night, reports of several tornadoes touched down just north of the city, some neighborhoods are still without power and it's 1:30 pm Saturday. A lot of damage to vegetation. Storm came in literally seconds and several motorist were stranded. Wish you guys were here!
Reed - look at the forecasts for Michigan this week - perhaps some storms here - wimpy by comparison - but at least something when you will be home.
Yeah those cells showed strong rotation on radar. Luckily they encountered the strong cap further east and weakened before producing more damage.
Thanks for the report!
Thanks for the info simon and reed....simon if you have myspace i am on tornadovideos.net friends list as well as i think reeds...would like to learn more and talk more about it if your interested....hot and humid here in manitoba...fairly overcast as well...
Hey Simon, I think a woman just signed off as "Hot and Humid here in Manitoba"... you meteorological stud!
LMAO joe your bad...lol...to clerify...i would like to talk to anyone more about learning more about tornados and storms...lol just so no one gets any bad ideas...lol...
Hi Amanda,
A number of friends have been pressuring me to finally get an account on myspace, so I might have to give in soon. I'll drop you a line when I do. I'd be happy to help answer any questions, even if that means I'd have to re-direct you to people who would actually know the answer! And there is also this awsome message board we have here...
Reed, thanks for the encouragement, every bit helps!
Joe... never throught weather knowledge would have fringe benifits : ) ...lol...
BTW; Reed and Don; Is there any reason that the nocturnal LLJ would not have as much of an effect up here? Or are we missing a number of events simply due to observation bias? I've seen a number of events where we've indeed seen supercells burn all night, but little to no damage was seen with them, so I'd assume those specific cases became elevated after night fall. (Actually, the June 23 05 even might have hd some nocturnal tornadoes assoicated with cells at the southern end of the squall line, this is one of dozens of case studies I want have a good look at... does anyone have something that can increase the number of hours one gets out of a day? 27 hours would be perfect...)
Okay, laslty, Kalin, just out of curiosity, when you say vegetation damage, are we talking downed trees, or were there areas of crops flattened or even pulled out of the ground? Is there any indication of hail damage? (Corn leaves will look shreeded, any fruits will have little pits in them, and there may be some hail drifts left in ditches the morning after the storm...but I assume you probably know exactly what hail damage looks like being from your part of the world!) Just curious is all...
Simon E.
Simon,
I must admit to not being familiar enough with Canadian topography or climatology to really be able to offer an opinion on the nocturnal LLJ issue one way or another. In addition to that, I don't think the workings of the nocturnal LLJ are fully understood, and am personally aware of at least 4 hypotheses that seem to be of at least some importance, with perhaps the dominant factor changing depending on the specific circumstances.
So it's entirely possible there is a mechanism other than synoptic-scale regulation (since large upper lows rarely intrude into OK during the summer, the nocturnal LLJ can exist nearly every night...obviously this is not the case in Canada) whereby the nocturnal LLJ is weaker/less common in your area when compared to Oklahoma given a similar environment. However, it's also entirely possible that the reverse is true; unfortunately, there's simply no way to tell given the almost complete lack of low-level observations in the Canadian Prairie. Having a wind profiler located between the RAOB sites CWSE, CYQD, and GGW (US) would be very helpful, but the expense would probably be difficult to justify given the very low population density in the region.
The lack of a strong capping inversion east of the Great Plains may also play a role in a weaker low-level jet, since a decoupled boundary layer is more difficult to attain..in addition to the lack of a large-scale westward elevation increase, but this is all inter-related. It seems that east of the MS River, even when a strong diurnal LLJ is in place ahead of a strong trough, the low-level shear between the surface and say 850 mb is still much weaker than you would expect.
The role of small-scale topographic features is less understood. We've recently been discussing the possibility of a mesoscale LLJ between the mountains and Gulf in northeast Mexico, possibly enhancing the tornado potential there.
Similar features could also exist in Canada.