News DetailTornado watch will be needed soon for central-northeast ND
Posted At: June 25, 2007 @ 4:36 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Initiation of supercells is possible over central ND over the next few hours as a mid-level jet streak moves over a very unstable airmass east of a well-defined cold front. We will be monitoring satellite closely and will intercept any supercells that initiate. Unfortunately, the GPS tracker will not be working because I am using a backup laptop!
The recent RUC model output is forecasting initiation of intense convection in extreme northeast North Dakota at the nose of the low-level jet. We believe that instability and low-level shear will be maximized here. The only problem will be chasing the storm into the densely forested northern MN area. Here is the RUC accumulated precip forecast for 6 pm CDT:
The recent RUC model output is forecasting initiation of intense convection in extreme northeast North Dakota at the nose of the low-level jet. We believe that instability and low-level shear will be maximized here. The only problem will be chasing the storm into the densely forested northern MN area. Here is the RUC accumulated precip forecast for 6 pm CDT:
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I just saw your video on Inside Edition - it was a long segment! You are a real celebrity! Pretty soon you will have the Papporozzi (sp?) following you on a chase.
You are a real celebrity! Pretty soon you will have the Papporozzi (sp?) following you on a chase.
LOL, that will interesting to watch. When you see them fly
by with a camera in hand trying to get your picture Reed.
Like the cows that fly by from the movie Twister. LOL.
There is a forming supercell in Canada, what looks to be just East of where the Reeds amazing video was captured. You can see it on the Grand Forks, ND radar. It started as a line but has not formed a single supercell, it has rotation on tilt 3 and 4 and is not showing rotation on tilt 1. The vertical wind profile looks very favorable for tornadoes. It is something that must be watched!
It currently has 55K foot tops, and a notch on is southern side. This notch is the first sign of rotation, I am continuing to monitor the situation. It also has increased its hail marker to 1.75 in. Next update is 54 seconds
Hot off the presses!!!
WFUS54 KFWD 260453
TORFWD
TXC497-260545-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0040.070626T0454Z-070626T0545Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
* AT 1154 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO OVER EAST CENTRAL WISE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL EASTERN WISE COUNTY AT 1210 AM CDT
RURAL NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY AT 1220 AM CDT
TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.
LAT...LON 3311 9754 3311 9744 3344 9740 3344 9766
$$
I am currently investigating the situation, it must be an inbeded supercell
Matt - there has just been a tornado warning announce for that supercell. There is a hell of a curl on it. It is 20km NW of Morris. I am heading that way tomorrow. Will post anything I find.
Unfortunately the storm is almost out of range for U.S. radars, I think it should be warned due to the time of night. The storm relative velocities look nice for a tornado, but it is hard to trust velocities when they are that far away from the radar due to range folding and the radar beam is passing between 10 and 11km AGL (above ground level).
The tornado warning for Wise County, Tx seems to be warranted. There is an inbeded supercell with 50k foot tops, and a storm relative velocity couplet that has maintained at least 55kts gate to gate. Fortunately that is not a very populated area of North Texas.
New tornado warning for North Texas (different storm)
WFUS54 KFWD 260521
TORFWD
TXC193-260600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0041.070626T0521Z-070626T0600Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 100 AM CDT
* AT 1221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTH AT
10 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAMILTON BY 1255 AM CDT...
TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.
LAT...LON 3162 9834 3156 9821 3180 9805 3177 9832
$$
SCHULTZ
It does have slight rotation the tops are only 30k feet, and it is a very small storm, it could be a low top supercell. Also, the VWP (vertical wind profile) looks favorable for organized storms with a small possibility of tornadoes. The storm is headed NW and need to turn to the N in order to maximize its storm relative helicity.
Nice work, Matt.
Not living in tornado country (unfortunately), I have a question about nighttime tornados. What alerting mechanisms are there, if any, when there is a tornado warning but people are already in bed?
Joe, unfortunately this can be a problem. Fortunately there are solutions. First, towns in tornado alley have public tornado sirens that sound in the event of a tornado warning. Three man problems: It can be hard to hear the siren from inside a home, and if you are asleep, then forget about it. Second, some sirens are set up on a county network, so if any part of a county is under a tornado warning then all sirens sound in the county. This is a real problem with false alarms (crying wolf). Also, a lot of towns out of tornado alley do not have a public warning system.
Another solution is TV and Radio broadcast. Most cities in tornado alley are very good about keeping the public alerted well in advance. But what if you loose power or are just asleep. Or don't have the best weather casters (unfortunately several TV weather casters do not have a meteorology degree, and have no business making forecast or alerting the public).
Well, then there is another alternative, the NOAA Weather Radio. The NOAA Weather Radio can be picked up at any major electronics store, including Wal-Mart, Target, Radio Shack, etc and runs between $15-30. A great advantage to the NOAA radio is that it can be programed to alert you for different severe weather events. It also can be programed to only alert you if you are in the immediate area of the severe event.
I recommend for everyone to have one no matter where you are in the country, because remember given enough time anything that can happen will happen.
Interesting. Yes I was wondering especially about people in rural areas, away from sirens. Maybe some of them have weather radios, and maybe most of them just go to bed and don't worry about it, since the chance of getting hit is so small even if you live in tornado alley and you get inured to the possibility. But still... I wonder if some people place their beds in the basement during certain times of the year just to be on the safe side.
I was looking at the devastation from the Greensburg tornado. With so many homes wiped clean off their foundations, it was almost surprising that the death toll was as low as it was. Is it safe to say that most homes in towns like that in the midwest have basements, and that's where everyone went when they got the warning?
We have earthquakes where I live, not much you can do about those except ride them out. But if I lived in OK, KS, or NE I would certainly want a home with a basement or storm cellar of sorts. I kinda assume most houses in that region must have them. Correct me if I'm wrong but most citizens in Greensburg must have had them?
I also wonder how motels treat the situations. If there's a tornado warning I wonder if they wake up all the rooms or just don't worry about it.
Guess I have a lot to learn when I finally get over there to try some chasing myself next April-June.