News DetailTornado threat increasing over Northern Plains
Posted At: June 17, 2007 @ 9:16 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As the low-level jet intensifies and storms cross the slow-moving cold front into the warm sector, the threat for tornadoes will increase for the next few hours over eastern ND and northwest MN until storms become elevated above the nocturnal inversion. However, there is a good chance that storms will congeal into an MCS before even having a chance to produce tornadoes. 
UPDATE: The Fargo, ND radar image from around 9:20 pm CDT shows supercells developing along the cold front, with post-frontal supercells just northeast of Bismark as well. The supercell that recently developed in northeast ND (see radar image below), will likely become tornadic very soon as it tracks rapidly northeastward within a very unstable airmass and intensifying LLJ.
UPDATE: The Fargo, ND radar image from around 9:20 pm CDT shows supercells developing along the cold front, with post-frontal supercells just northeast of Bismark as well. The supercell that recently developed in northeast ND (see radar image below), will likely become tornadic very soon as it tracks rapidly northeastward within a very unstable airmass and intensifying LLJ.
Calendar
Categories
is there a chance for them to head towards chicago?
Paul: These storms won't even come close to making it to Chicago...they'll die late tonight/early this morning somewhere over northern MN or Quebec.
There is a small chance for severe weather in Chicago tomorrow night, but it still looks like most of the action will stay west of you.
The cell in northeast ND is looking VERY interesting right now.
I can't believe the cell in northeast ND does not have a tornado warning !!!
It was very strong rotation on the lowest tilt with a hook developing.
It appears that this cell doesn't even have a severe tstorm warning.
TornadoVideos.net is issuing a tornado warning for that cell!!
AAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA yes I was just checking it out its heading for Minnewaukan!!!
That cell near Walsh just got tornado warned!
yes they finally just issued it. I don't understand the delay. It had strong low-level rotation, a massive echo top, and a textbook hook.
THere easily could have been a hose on the ground.
Hmm I was looking at another cell a bit more to the SW of that cell. I put a SRV1 of it under my name.
Yeah that's an incredible couplet!
The Walsh Co cell appears to be weakening now...it maybe crossing north of the warm front..we'll see what happens
well....there it is!
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL BENSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
Reed, love how you are spending time on the radar and tracking the stroms. Interesting to hear about and also im sure you are learning to see if your judgment is correct, good practice, lol.
It looks like a huge big blob of thunder storms now, cheese!
keep up the good work.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NO NEWS STATIONS ARE ON! ITS BEEN OUT FOR 10 MINUTES AND NO ONE IS ON! ON JEEZ SOMEONE BETTER GET A BUTT KICKING FOR THIS
hmm i wonder if the genius from ows predicted the TX tornadoes today with his magic powers
Ez, that would be me, and OWS is closed for the project during weekends. I don't get paid to do this, and do it for my own project and research to further stuff we have today to bring forecasting into the future.
So I wouldn't have gotten this today. No forecasting. Don't judge me Ez. Don't even start with me unless you know me. Got it? I've nailed Northeastern USA tornadoes, including the rare one in Mass. tha touchdown down a couple weeks to a month ago. You don't follow OWS research. Many on here do, and many have come to rely on it fully. SPC had a svr tstorm watch a few days back for SW TX. OWS Had a red area, tornado dynamics were there. An awesome supercell with an awesome hook there happened. Need I say more?
And Reed - This is why I think that NWS didn't issue the warning for the cell you mentioned in this blog.
Cell seen - Warning typed up - Warning sent to coordinator - warning reviewed - warning issued.
Now, if it wasn't right......
Cell seen - Warning typed up - Warning sent to coordinator - warning reviewed - warning sent back - warning fixed - warning sent back for review - warning issued.
Time huh?
Wake up man! Action just south of you, but judging from your average posting times, you're sawing logs right now.
Very serious sitution unfolding this morning across the red river around gainsville. Apparently there have been high water rescues and I-35 is closed. Not to mention the tornado watch till noon.
Flash Flood Statement:
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR COOKE
AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...
...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT CONTINUES...
AT 814 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN GRAYSON
COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXTENDED FROM NEAR MUENSTER TO
NEAR SEVILLE BEND. MOVEMENT WAS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS COOKE AND GRAYSON
COUNTIES SINCE 5 AM. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN UNDER WATER AND WATER
RESCUES WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING. AVOID TRAVEL IN THE
WARNED AREA.
8 INCHES??????
im not judging you...just poking fun. where do you have it happening today? i live in central ok and am pissed i have to work the entire day today! im afraid this is going to be one of the last days we are under the gun for a while.
thanks Reed
Yes this flooding situation in TX looks very serious.
livestream: http://www.wfaa.com
Reed,
I was chasing in ND yesterday and caught the supercell East of Devil's Lake. Thanks for the RADAR shot! Do you have any other information saved from the this storm? It would be great to see how it looked.
Thanks,
Allison
(Winnipeg, Manitoba, CANADA)
Ez, I apologize then. All my life, I've been made fun of for my work even though you can notice it works. I only am trying to make things easier for the future generation of Meteorologists. There are keys hidden in the work already done. I am banned from all kinds of forums because of it. Made fun of, etc. I am alone in this for the most part, however I've managed to get some people to see it's not BS and this work is helping them.
Today, SPC is seeing MO, and Wisconsin. My map is seeing nearly the same areas, and is valid only Evening CDT. Looks good right now. Even did a Dallas,TX metro, click the name for that.
I also, for some reason have tstorms into Central Oklahoma possibly giving a general tornado risk. Of course this is going by my map, I haven't checked out SPC/NWS discussions.
There was a pretty big thunderstorm here in Winnipeg, last night. Lightning also struck a tree near my house. Also, with the storms there was lighting every second, 2 inches of rain fell in less than an hour in some areas!
P.S. So you're from Winnipeg too, Alllison, eh? It's cool to see that I'm not the only Canadian(more specifically Manitoban, or Winnipegger) in this stuff, too.
Jon
Jon,
The rain had let up by the time we got back to Winnipeg, but we drove through buckets of rain and blinding lightning pretty much all the way from Grand Forks. It was crazy!
The reason it tool so long to tornado warn, IMHO, is that it was in the outflow--well north of the outflow boundary that was surging sewd to near GFK. I saw the RADAR later (was chasing with Allison; and Jonathan, do I know you? I don't know any Jonathan chasers from the 'Peg...) and it certainly had a good look to it, but the environment it was in at the time was not so good. We were on it and, from what we could see (it was about 10 at night) there was very little tornado risk.