News DetailOutbreak of supercells possible today in MT and SD!
Posted At: June 16, 2007 @ 11:21 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Strong upslope flow at low-levels will prevail today over northwest SD and central/eastern MT, providing lift for the initiation of supercells this afternoon/evening. A strong shortwave moving through the northern Rockies will also provide the wind shear necessary for rotating storms. The instability will be extreme, especially over western SD along the northward-advancing warm front (see RUC forecast for 00z below).
The purple shading in the CAPE map above right represents 5000+ CAPE! The low-level jet is also forecast to be out of the ESE at around 30 kts at 00z, with the strongest 850 mb flow south of the warm front in a capped, stable environment. The best area for supercells today is from the warm frontal zone in western SD northwestward into central MT, with 0-1 km EHIs (energy-helicity index - combined measure of 0-1 km CAPE and helicity) maximized in southeast MT to northwest SD, where the cap is forecast to be non-existent by 6 pm MDT. The directional shear will be huge over this area, with low-level winds out of the ESE and substantially veering with height. I am currently out of town in Mobile, AL, so unfortunately I will not be able to chase this setup. Stay tuned for updates!!
The purple shading in the CAPE map above right represents 5000+ CAPE! The low-level jet is also forecast to be out of the ESE at around 30 kts at 00z, with the strongest 850 mb flow south of the warm front in a capped, stable environment. The best area for supercells today is from the warm frontal zone in western SD northwestward into central MT, with 0-1 km EHIs (energy-helicity index - combined measure of 0-1 km CAPE and helicity) maximized in southeast MT to northwest SD, where the cap is forecast to be non-existent by 6 pm MDT. The directional shear will be huge over this area, with low-level winds out of the ESE and substantially veering with height. I am currently out of town in Mobile, AL, so unfortunately I will not be able to chase this setup. Stay tuned for updates!!
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where is the system moving and how long should it last?
Looks like Missoula could get some love...if you efind yourself chasing in that area, you should definitely spend the night there; very cool little city, beautiful geography, and UM is a cool little school.
We are having some INSANE cloud formations over here in the Netherlands. I made a vid of it CHECK IT OUT! click my name for it :P Woooohooo!
Hey Reed! We are chasing today, right now we are on I90 in SD blasting west to get into position. If we capture anything we will be happy to provide some pics or something if you want to post them.
Good luck Michael!
Give me a call if you need any data.
I'm definitely loving that warm frontal zone. 0-1 EHIs at 4-5 already according the RUC analysis.
All we need now is a storm!
http://outlawchasers.blogspot.com/
Reed, got the new blog up...check it out.
Lanny
Lanny: NICE BLOG!!
I didn't know you guys saw the Throckmorton tornado as well. It looks like you were just east of it.
When was the sitka, KS LP??
There's nothing better than a low-based LP.
Yeah, got about 100 yards from the throckmorton...was actually my wife and I, Randy was further south. We were just east of it...you guys came screaming by us, and then beat us to the station in Whicita Falls! The Sitka LP was last year...kinda a lone storm in July, didnt stay long, was on the ground for maybe 4 min. or so. But was great Vid...and I got it live with the First cam! Keep checking the blog, I will be updating it everyday. Also, when do you guys wanna chase together? lol lol
Lanny