News DetailSupercells possible in western OK today!
Posted At: June 13, 2007 @ 2:32 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Despite major flow weaknesses between 700 and 500 mb, strong instability and sufficient low-level shear (after 7 pm CDT) will yield the possibility for supercells late this afternoon and evening over western OK. The tornado threat is minimal, however, because storms will likely congeal into an MCS before the low-level jet develops this evening. Here are the RUC forecast CAPE (for 7 pm CDT) and 850 mb flow (for 10 pm CDT) -- the orange color in the CAPE map represents 3500-4000 J/kg.
Accordingly, the SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southwest KS and western OK, in effect until 10 pm CDT. If the cells can remain discrete and supercellular after 7:00 pm CDT, the tornado threat will increase dramatically, and the severe thunderstorm watch will likely be upgraded to a tornado watch. We'll be monitoring this situation closely, and will likely fly west if the low-level jet develops earlier than forecast, or if cells can remain discrete into the evening. Stay tuned for updates!
Accordingly, the SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southwest KS and western OK, in effect until 10 pm CDT. If the cells can remain discrete and supercellular after 7:00 pm CDT, the tornado threat will increase dramatically, and the severe thunderstorm watch will likely be upgraded to a tornado watch. We'll be monitoring this situation closely, and will likely fly west if the low-level jet develops earlier than forecast, or if cells can remain discrete into the evening. Stay tuned for updates!
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My tornado maps, as per clicking the name above, show the exact same thing, however more for Southwestern Oklahoma I believe, but def further West than OKC. Chasing?
962
WFUS53 KDDC 132057
TORDDC
KSC189-132130-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0074.070613T2057Z-070613T2130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL STEVENS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT
* AT 355 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO OVER
CENTRAL STEVENS COUNTY...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUGOTON...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF CENTRAL STEVENS COUNTY.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT 15 TO
30 MINUTES.
LAT...LON 3723 10140 3718 10124 3730 10119 3731 10126
It says if Driving do not seek shelter under highway passes....where do you seek shelter then?
Will that line of storms running through Pennsylvania be hitting NY tonight ? Or is that stuff going to break up?
Danny, the stuff in PA is headed south, so if anything developes in NY it won't be from the same line. I've been watching that one pretty closely cause I have family in western MD, and they got freaked out last night with a tornado warning (they get one about every 5 years or so!). :D
Maps are up for the EVENING TIME CDT. Click the name, got some spots in PA to look at, on down to Maryland, OWS has issued the shadings, and a Tornado Watch in all shadings is valid NOW from us.
It looks like the dewpoints have mixed out temporarily in western and southwestern OK...and as expected, the storms are definitely struggling in the weakly sheared environment.
Kevin: I'm very surprised at your watch in southwest OK, and your high probabilities for "rotation". Given that winds are below 20 kts through the entire profile below 500 mb...how did you arrive at this prediction???
The only location where dewpoints did not mix-out: southwest KS and extreme northwest OK falls outside of your watch. As you stated previously, did you arrive at this prediction by extrapolating satellite images? I'm still unsure on how you do this 24 hours in advance...18 hours before the storms initiate. Please elaborate!
Brief rope tornado touchdown 8 miles west of Cleo Springs, Oklahoma!
Got a second tornado on the ground, same location, larger funnel this time, dissipated as I was typing this.
I almost set off west on 412 a couple of hours ago but decided against it. Now its too far for me to get to before dark....
Got a third tornado in the same place, only on the ground for a few seconds. Continued strong rotation.
Possible 4th tornado, rain-wrapped.
Got a new wall cloud west of Fairview, Oklahoma.
This storm's cycling like there's no tomorrow. Tornado warning for Major County, Oklahoma has been extended until 7:45 PM CDT.
Another brief tornado touchdown roughly 6 miles WSW of Orienta, Oklahoma.
Another tornado touchdown, roughly 7 miles WSW of Orienta, Oklahoma.
That last one nearly nailed Val Castor of KWTV9. It's still on the ground.
That last one nearly nailed Val Castor of KWTV9. It's still on the ground.
Sorry for the double-post.
Another tornado due north of Fay, Oklahoma.
Looks like it's turning into more of a generic severe T-storm situation here in Oklahoma now. Believe there was almost a dozen separate touchdowns in northwest Oklahoma this evening.
Thanks for the update Chris...at the time of the last tornado I was just intercepting the Geary supercell. I wonder what was different in NW OK that allowed the supercells to tornado.
Reed if you want to know, I think I can give a hand on that one. You can reply back if you do. I won't clutter your blog in it. Thanks.