News DetailSupercells/tornado warnings in NW North Dakota and Saskatchewan
Posted At: June 11, 2007 @ 6:41 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Supercells have initiated along a cold front in southern Saskatchewan and northwest North Dakota, producing 1 brief tornado in Divide County, ND at 5:25 pm CDT. The tornado reports in Saskatchewan are unknown at this time, but several storms have exhibited strong rotation on radar there. Here is the Minot radar reflectivity image as of 6:40 pm CDT.
While brief, weak tornadoes are likely from these storms, the low-level wind fields are not quite conducive for long-track tornadoes today, because of a general weakness in flow magnitude from 700 mb and below. However, good turning in the flow with height from the surface to 850 mb will provide the necessary low-level shear for brief tornadoes. If the low-level jet can get going before these storms congeal into an MCS, the possibility for long-track tornadoes will increase dramatically with these cells. Here is the VAD wind profile from Minot from just before 7 pm CDT.
While brief, weak tornadoes are likely from these storms, the low-level wind fields are not quite conducive for long-track tornadoes today, because of a general weakness in flow magnitude from 700 mb and below. However, good turning in the flow with height from the surface to 850 mb will provide the necessary low-level shear for brief tornadoes. If the low-level jet can get going before these storms congeal into an MCS, the possibility for long-track tornadoes will increase dramatically with these cells. Here is the VAD wind profile from Minot from just before 7 pm CDT.
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Hey, Reed. Apparently the Tornado Watch in Southern Saskatchewan has been dropped, but Severe Storms continue there, and are moving into Manitoba. The main threat now is for strong winds and large hail in Sask., because bow echos are forming now. Southern Manitoba is supposed to get hit later tonight, and tomorrow will be a higher risk in Winnipeg. Looks like tomorrow will be the active day here. See ya for now!
Jon
Right now there's a pretty hefty cell near Moosomin, Sask., right on the Sask.-Manitoba border that has 3.5" hail and a very convincing signature on the GR3 velocity out of Minot (sorry, I haven't gotten around to using the Canadian radar sites yet...). Looks rough...