News DetailTornadoes possible in SD/ND today
Posted At: May 28, 2007 @ 11:26 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Supercells will likely initiate along a slow-moving cold front in central SD and ND today, within an environment of extreme CAPE and adequate wind shear for tornadoes. The RUC forecast CAPE and 850 mb flow for 7 pm CDT this evening are displayed below:
Given the orientation of the cold front (SSW to NNE), a quick evolution to an MCS is expected today given cell mergers and strong linear forcing. However, tornadic supercells will be likely during the first few hours after initiation. As seen above, a 35-40 kt diurnal low-level jet will be in place, as well as extreme CAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg along and east of the cold front. The cap (inidcated by hatched regions in upper right panel) will be rather strong from SD southward, indicating a higher likelihood of linear, forced convection there. The weaker cap in ND will increase the chances for supercells there. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for this region, with a chance for tornadoes mentioned.
Given the orientation of the cold front (SSW to NNE), a quick evolution to an MCS is expected today given cell mergers and strong linear forcing. However, tornadic supercells will be likely during the first few hours after initiation. As seen above, a 35-40 kt diurnal low-level jet will be in place, as well as extreme CAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg along and east of the cold front. The cap (inidcated by hatched regions in upper right panel) will be rather strong from SD southward, indicating a higher likelihood of linear, forced convection there. The weaker cap in ND will increase the chances for supercells there. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for this region, with a chance for tornadoes mentioned.
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I'd have to say Extreme SE ND, Extreme NE SD, and Western MN.
I live in Fargo ND so today could be a pretty exciting day!
how strong do u think the tornados (if any) will be?
I don't know really, but it looks like I have Russ in the Weak to Moderate area of thunderstorm rotation.
7pm CDT maps are developed and up.
hey guys have you ever played this game!?!?!?!?!
http://www.wildgames.com/ECS/htdocs/GameInfo.aspx?itemname=tornadojockey&_uid_=1f03371a-76e6-4f28-a3fc-5b1a9bfded78&_uda_=
watch this awsome vid of a stovepipe tornado. you
can see the hail. it's prolly baseball sized.
woops i did not put the site adress
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIWGJnis8WU
Just played the demo, funny game Caleb :o)
Demo can be downloaded from here: http://download.wildgames.com/wildgames/tornadojockeycom-setup.exe
thanks Wouter i baught the game i was an F4 but
there was problem with my computer and it erased my game or level. i got very mad.
Caleb, you just made me waste a whole hour of my life playing that game
why did i make you waste a whole hour Connor?
Yeah I actually posted the link for the game, I feel proud that i wasted one precious hour of your life Connor.
wouter thanks for sticking up for me.
Wouter, Caleb posted it before you.
Caleb, I was just messin around. I was just sayin that you had gotten me temporarily addicted to it. I'm not mad at you or anything
ok connor.
I made it to an F1 twister before the demo ended. It reminds me of that game Destroy All Humans.
Northeast North Dakota is looking very interesting right now...A large area of uncapped 2000+ cape along with a 35-40 kt llj.
Surprise tornado in Somers Connecticut today! (Sorry, just an EF0). Story below and damage video available at http://www.wtnh.com/Global/story.asp?S=6577779
(Somers-WTNH) _ The National Weather Service says that a tornado did in fact touch down in Somers Monday afternoon around 1 o'clock.
It was a peaceful weather day, when all of the sudden winds from the east/northeast blew in and ripped part of the roof off a barn on Hall Hill Road in Somers. There were about 25-horses in the barn, but none were injured.
Witnesses say that the strong winds of about 70 mph, came out of nowhere.
i guss every body likes my game.
Surprise tornado my butt. I had that on my site, and predict that EXACT SHADING.
Click the name for the map.
Area was under a growing yellow at the time, so a hit for me.
guys watch this vid. some of the tornados are from may,3rd 1999.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3u0VuROLHM&mode=related&search=
Warnings
R.M. Of Piney including Piney, Woodridge and Sandilands
7:36 PM CDT Monday 28 May 2007
Tornado warning for
R.M. Of Piney including Piney, Woodridge and Sandilands issued
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.
Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
This is on a storm here in Manitoba. Just thought I'd let you know! lol
a tornado has been spoted in Canada.
tropcal storm alvan has just been isuued. and could become stronger.
Kevin...Could you please give us a quantitative definition for each of your outlooks?...Also, what defines a "hit"...Because I noticed a few events ago you stated that three of your tornado watches verified even though there were no tornadoes reported the next day. Do you have any statistics on your "hits" vs. "misses"? In order to make the type of statements your making (i.e. negative comments about the spc), I'd hope that you have some statistically significant results..
You also state that you consider unique "tornado dynamics" in your outlooks...could you please elaborate on this? or is it hand-waving. We have to assume the latter unless you can prove otherwise.
Thanks for your insight on these events.
Kevin just got called out
Okay on Kevin's website he wrote this......****Synopsis : Target is for scattered weak areas, with the North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota areas getting a moderate rotation category. Seems that Canada will be the highest where High is calculated for rotation in Manitoba. Some weak areas in (Southern Illinois), and others in Colorado. Connecticut to Massachusetts has weak as well so that will be3 interesting to watch. Southern Texas is another area with weak category.
He states there could be Weak Rotation in Southern Illinios, my question is where there even any storms in Illinios yesterday....
Forgot to mention on his maps he doesn't even have Southern Illinios shaded, it's Southern Indiana.
What does weak, moderate, and strong mean in his forecasts? Is he talking about each individual mesocyclone, tornado, or spatially? Does weak rotation mean several supercells with a weak mesocyclone, or one supercell with a weak-strong meso...
what's anyone think about the spc's forecast for probability of severe weather in e nm ne tx and sw ok on wed? i dont know much but to me it looks a lot like what happened last tuesday in the KS area with the strong cap and the convergence of a dryline and cold front, but im really new to all this so i might be totally off...??????
Reed, you make a interesting point. Im not really sure how we could go out on the limb with so many different place's. I would rather stick with the SPC. There forecast you can actually understand. Im not really sure how he breaks it down.... Maybe he will reply and let us all know. This should be interesting to find out.
here the SPC sever weather forcast.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
The Tornado Forcasts are forcasted by his forcasting ways, but are determended (for the maps) on the Rotation Strength. So far he has been right 9 out of 10 (and thats on the low side)
I've been out doing house stuff, but I'll briefly try to explain it. The experiment is as it says. Experimental. It's based off a tornado formula I am working on.
The areas in the shading may not see a storm, but the ones that do have them will be under those shading dynamics. Weak,Moderate, High, for rotation of the mesocyclone. Still is taking a bit of time to determine other factors, but that shouldn't take long. After I can get some of these tests down then I will move on to narrowing them for areas that should see storms, therefore eliminating the ones that show a shading, but get no storms.
I try to veer away from the funnel cloud reported. Funnel cloud reported that doesn't touch the ground does fall below the yellow shading. Maybe I should make one for that as well, and put shading green for funnel cloud possible, but slim chance of a touchdown. I'm not sure, but that's what experimenting is all about.
The day you guys went to TX panhandle, oh maybe 1 week ago or so, I had the area under Red and Orange. I noticed in your video you said rapid rotation or so. This does fit with the Red shading well.
Over the experiment I use to think it was tornado rotation speed, however now I see to it being most likely rotation speed of the mesocyclone itself which, in time will hopefully further up to more accurate maps.
Today is in TX and SW Kansas. I do have an isolated spot in Wisconsin that I will be watching carefully if any storms develop there. Conditions look favorable for them so I don't see why not. We will see. Also DFW area is in the yellow shading. David R. is telling me storms are moving in all directions. This may fit the map later for a rotating updraft later. Again we will see.
Today is the day I have begun archiving ALL maps, and will put down tornado reports on the maps when I archive them away so I know what areas got which , and go from there.
Kevin
Okay Kevin, Your forecast is for TX & SW Kansas, but then again it's NE Colorado,WSW Nebraska & NW Kansas that is under a Tornado Watch. But I only have one question, what in your mind pop's into play when you make the prediction. I know they are Experimental but what key factor's do you look for when you are making these predictions. I just don't get your method that you are using.
There are several inconsistencies in your explanation. First, you say that a funnel cloud that does not touch the ground falls below your minimum outlook....then you mention the wall cloud we observed matches with the red shading...but then you state that your forecasts are for mesocyclone strength. Thus, you are trying to validate your forecasts with three different size scales here...and then you plan to use tornado reports for verification!! Which is it!
I've seen mesocyclones with significant rotation not produce tornadoes or even wall clouds...
The wall cloud we observed in Hutchinson County had significant rotation, but also produced several funnels that did not reach the ground...so both a "yellow" and a "red" verified here? It sounds like a win-win situation for you, with these outlooks not really telling us anything.
This is hard to explain Avery. I have afriend named Avery as well. So cool.
But I don't use the traditional model stuff you all use.
This is the story.
June 15, 2003 I was hit by lightning in San Antonio,TX. A week after that I began seeing satellite images, realtime obs data, and recognizing a flow pattern. This allows me to create my own model in my head like a super computer. The doctor says I am a Savant as my brain does compute 3x as fast as a normal person. Many Savants out there do different things, but I am in tune to the weather.
I can take satellite/radar, etc and spin them ahead to figure out what is going to happen. Almost like my brain produces it's own weather model aside from the ones you guys use. I do this all the time in my website for forecasting, and it seems some areas really work.
Other than what happened to me being struck by lightning, and having a very fast brain because of it, I don't know what else to say.
It's fun, but trust me, it's not easy for me. I refuse to go to school and learn the way traditional Meteorologists forecast. I do my own stuff, and it seems to be a steady incline up. Therefore, i'll never get a degree in this field, but will continue studying it, and hopefully showing one is not needed.
Meteorology is not understanded fully, and many closed doors that need to be open. There is no such thing as a Professional Meteorology, or to be called a Meteorologist you need a degree. That just doesn't fly with this kind of science. I am a Meteorologist, but of a different kind I feel.
I am a Meteorologist Savant.
I learned by myself, and some of these pop in my head. I can't think faster than my brain at times, so yes, weird stuff comes from it, but it seems to work.
Notice SPC watch box is where my dynamics were already as this map is valid at 4PM CDT here.
http://www.ontarioweatherservice.com/Svrmap052907a.jpg
I still think the 2% tornado in the Western TX Panhandle is overdone , and my maps show nothing of the sort.
Hope this explained a bit more about how I do things.
Reed that was the experiment process.
Was it tornado strength, or mesocyclone rotation.
Being the Orange-Red Shading was over you, you had high rotation in the mesocyclone like the map said.
A yellow shading would be weak rotation, in so forth.
A weak rotation can still produce a tornado, of weak nature.
It's not a win win situation for me per say. It's a win win for the Tornado.
A weak mesocyclone can produce a tornado.
A strong mesocyclone(red shading) can produce a weak tornado. Which wouldn't sound like a red shading but is.
It's a bit complicated like that, but that is how weather is.
wtf did I just read. IT was funny, lightening strikes and turns dude into a savant who can forcast tornados and other weather due the satallite images he sees in his head? That must have been some good lightening man. Dont eat the brown lightening!
You read it right. And I don't see satellite images in my head, I go off the loops of the satellite images, and spin them into the future in my head. it's fine, your brain isn't 3x as fast so you wouldn't understand. Being a Savant is like being and advanced human.
Lightening = Lightning
Forcast= Forecast.
The rest was fine.
Two tornado warnings in the yellow shadings of the first series of the maps.
So far so good, lets see what comes from the rest of them.
mesocyclone rotation. it is based on low level inflow shear, right? and of course an updraft (CAPE). so you could just look at the model runs of the 850, 700 and 500 winds and make your own experiment. granted most of dont have this super brain (i consider mine about 1.5 the normal processing speed), we do have computers to crunch numbers.
Just out of curiosity, Kevin, but if you say here that you refuse to go to school to study meteorology, why do you claim to be a meteorology student at Penn State on your MySpace page? If what you have on your MySpace page was true once but isn't now, you might want to think about updating it.
http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendID=3257516
Guys, Lets not get mean here (Not saying anyone is) but lets watch it, It is a cool experement
Heidi, I don't change my myspace around often. But I did do some classes at penn state which were to me a waste of time and money because the stuff is not how I know forecasting.
Reed earlyer there was a mean looking bow- echo
over DFW dalles fort worth area. i'me gussing
it spun up a 4 sec tornado.
I lick my thumb hold it up in the air and I can tell the weather forecast. God's honest truth there
danny A little TMI to much info.
TMI? He could have said lick something else and hold it out to see what the weather is, but didn't.
Now that is TMI.
Leave dude alone he makes maps in his head all good if it turns into better forecasting and such. Savants are very very very rare. Well good luck with your formula and Danny put it away before it gets struck.
so is the best place to post up to follow storms by the dryline?
Looks like some svr weather heading for Norman. click name for radar picture.
Lol Kevin you said just what I was thinking