News DetailPossible tornadoes in KS today
Posted At: May 22, 2007 @ 10:24 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
If a storm can develop south of the cold front along the dryline in KS == MASS CHAOS!
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what are we wating for christmas? let's rock!!!!
I'll keep you updated on the tornado warnings.
I heard on the news this morning that cleanup workers aren't being allowed into Greensburg & the other places today because of the threat, since there isn't any place to take shelter.
Guys, I am predicting we will see in a tornado warning text, "Large and Extremaly Dangerous Tornado" tonight.
CHAT IS UP!!!! WWW.LIVETORNADOCHAT.COM
Ill be watching, and keeping track of any live TV Feeds that come up today.
That chat was awesome during the last outbreak ... but hopefully we never have to be sitting there feeling like we're about to be sick because of what we're seeing on radar again. :/
I am forecasting Strong to Violent Tornadoes today in spots. By evening, some of these dynamics, on a West to East branch may go across Central Kansas. Not sure why, but my tornado formula is showing this well. I'll keep in touch. Come to the chat mentioned above to talk in realtime
Reed, Are you heading to KS Today? (Through that is an obvious answer)
Yeah we're on our way right now...the tracker should be up and running...although the cingular network is not the best in SW KS.
I'me forecasting for reed a large stove pipe tornado
with winds of 112 mph. hope I'me right.
Godspeed guys bring home a monster.
good luck chasing Reed oh and be safe and have fun
get some grate vid ok?
I think, and I think everyone will agree, SPC needs at LEAST a Moderate risk for this, they think the cap wont break. 8 hours from now, I bet we will have had some tornadoes, and they think it will die at sunset, we shall see.
Reed, my maps are showing a bullseye for Strong to Violent tornadic storms possible right over Dodge City, KS today. That where you guys are headed?
I totally agree with the moderate risk David....Good luck guys and be safe.
David I'me checking with the NOAA weather warnings
every 15 min. again I'll keep you updated on the tornado warnings.
According to my formula for cap, I am going to go with cap breaking in TX Panhandle in less than one hour, with a South to North zip up through KS and NE by 2-3 pm CDT. This is in line with my thinkings 6 hours ago on Strong to Violent Tornadoes in the area.
I was going to say the exact same thing about the Mod. risk before there were even any comments up here yet, but I tend to frown a lot when I see their convective outlooks lately, so I didn't bother. Thanks for taking care of it for me, Dave & Mike! :D And even with this slight risk, why such a small area? And their prob/stat diagram has the tornado chance extending out of their own slight-risk area????
.....Be safe, guys!........
Now they're saying Moderate risk for tomorrow ... we'll have to wait and see how long they "wait and see" today, I guess. Remember, when Greensburg happened they only had a Moderate risk out.
yeah I'me going with the cap breaking at 5:00 pm.
and exsposive thunderstorms and long-tracked tornados
Heidi visit my site. Click my name.
Maps developed at 4:00AM Today for this event.
Note the number of Strong and Violent shadings I have.
My formula is showing this quite well.
If I was in the SPC office, A high risk would go up today.
Reed, is it possiblle you will be staying in KS overnight? And also, Dont get 100 yards from a mile wedge, through I wont be surprized to see something like that on the news tommorow. Jeez, I may have to bribe you guys to take me along sometime, I have a brand new laptop, has wireless, and TV capabilites. Well, You guys have fun, and dont get killed. Ya right :P
if I was the SPC I would issue a tornado watch for
north ok and the entire state of ks.
Kevin: Already did it. :) That's impressive - I like how you break it down into time-tables, not just a generalized thing like I'm used to seeing.
While SPC would do that maybe on a major outbreak, you have to understand the focus spots. The front, and the Dryline are the points of interest, and any KS tornado watch today will be in the Western Sections along these boundaries. The cap will be too strong for anything East of there.
When the cap is in place, you need one of these boundaries to force storms up. Without them, you are doomed for updrafts, as they won't form.
there might be at least 20-60 reports of tornadoes.
with 1 EF4 and maby another EF5 let's hope not.
So do think most of the tornadoes that form (if any) will be say northwest/west of Greensburg. I'm just curious.
Yes, around there.
hay guys I just saw a dust devil but It didn't suck up dust
it sucked up hay leaves and dead grass It was pritty cool.
Caleb where are you at?
Does anyone know how common dust devils really are? It seems like I see one or two every time i drive through west Texas, the panhandle, New Mexico or Arizona. I drove through one on the highway here in Texas a while ago. That was fun.
I'm not sure when the nws decides to send up radiosondes, but I can't help but wonder why they didnt send one up for dodge city yet.
I'm not sure but the lack of a moderate risk may be due to unfavorable locations on the jet streak for this region (sw kansas). would anyone like to offer some insight?
haha i started those comments off the same.
As you know, I don't use NWS formulas. No jet streak, no nothing. I use my own. Developed them for Tornadoes and other events. I do believe the moderate risk wasn't issued because they were too scared for their reputation. The cap is holding strong, but it will rip like no other soon. They are saying. "We are going to not put our rep on the line, and let everyone die". Good huh?
Not. So i'll do their job for them.
High Risk issued for Western Kansas today through this evening. This risk area should shift to the NW Kansas area a couple hrs after sunset. Strong to Violent Tornado are possible with these dynamics.
Connor, I used to live in Arizona, and I can tell you that dust devils are part of every-day life from about the Phoenix area south, and especially during the summer. Same goes for Southern New Mexico. Anywhere that is flat and also hot and dry on a regular basis is going to have a lot of them. Another thing is that because of the terrain in those areas, meaning the lack of grasses & stuff covering the ground, you're more likely to see dust devlis in "the desert" because of the debris making the funnel visible. In other places they might be more common than people think, but aren't often seen because the funnels aren't so full of dirt, and therefore aren't as visible from long distances.
As some idiot just closed the old chat room, Here is the new one, provided by Kevin/OWS:
http://www.ontarioweatherservice.com/owschatroom.html
NEW CHAT ROOM! http://www.ontarioweatherservice.com/owschatroom.html
GREAT...for some reason when i go to OWS's chatroom...nothing pops up...just an X....for some reason i cant get the flash player to work on this computer...GRRRR
Any way somebody can create another chat....lol.....i cant get the flash player to work at all...so i cant see a stinking thing in the chat room...just the dreaded X.....AAAAAAAAAAAA
Everyone please be careful and safe out there chasing.
I can't get to OWSs chat room, or any part of his site for that matter. Any ideas?
toby I live in kentuckey were microbirts are very commen
the SPC just issued a tornado watch this is just the beginning people.
Initiation is underway.
I have a feeling that there is going to be an EF5 tornado
today/tonight
looks like we got our first tornado warning :)
yep NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
* UNTIL 415 PM MDT
* AT 349 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF
BOYERO...OR ABOUT 28 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIMON. THIS STORM WAS
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOYERO.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
let's rock and track those storms.
YES! Right in my TORNADO DYNAMIC SHADING.
See? 12 hr tornado forecasts are NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
Wow, its really looking like its setting up good...The next 2-3hrs are going to be very crucial in determining how much strength these storms will pull into tonight. But it looks like they will stick together...
Reeds tracker is off...Just goes to show the shotty reception in KS, i guess....There is/was a nice cell just northwest of where they were located last.
yup im sure that's the one they are on now
Do you suppose that these storms could come through suthern Wyoming Im board!
no jaci I'me sorry but who knows you could see some
waterspouts.
Man once you guys get going when these storms start popping up I'm out of the loop. I need to go to school for this to understand anything. Sucks to be uneducated me.
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
THATS REEDS CELL i think :)
Caleb
The closest lake or body of water is an hour away! And Im sure compared to where you live, they are just a ittle puddle! The closest big body of water is 3 hours north, Im not sure I want to drive 3 hours to see a water spout! But thank you!
Danny
Im with you there! The only education that I have on weather is what my exhusband taught me. He was a storm chaser. Not professionally but for hobby!
hmmm..... jaci you could see a dust devil maby ????
just check the temp on TWC then you need a good breeze oh about 15 -21 mph. If you don't get one
sorry I cant help.
I heard rumors about chance of Tornado Outbrak over Western PA near Pittsburgh, Ohio, Indiana, and Ontario. I looked at some data for Saturday and it looks impresive
Very Strong Shear 150+Kts , Dewpoints near 70, and Highs from 80-90F. It says Large Hail, and Wind Damage will be Widespread. Possible Tornados some storng or violent. I think there will be a rare High Risk from Chicago to Pittsburgh that would be crazy.
They just mentioned the storm Reed is under on TWC. Turned supercell with confirmed tornado . . . path has it running directly over where their gps marker stopped on the tracking page . . ..
Hey so I am going to try and chase some tomorrow and am not an "expert" like most of you that are blogging. Where do you think supercells will be popping up and how early?
Caleb...do u think it is going to be an EF5 then?
jp I would not say that there will be violent tornados
but strong ones.
WHEW! Look at the hook over Cheyenne Wells in Cheyenne County Colorado! Possiable tornado!
It looks as though Goodland is under the biggest threat at the moment ..can someone confirm this?
mike what do u mean do you think there will be an
EF5 then???
You said you had a feeling that there could be an EF5 today or tomorrow...was just wandering what the possibilities are.
mike I would say about 50% chance of one. I hope
there is not one. hope this helps.
I hope so too Caleb..I am pretty new to this but have been watching these guys for a few months...I am from the UK but have been fascinated with tornados and severe weather in the US ever since i watched a video on youtube that reed and joel recorded....I have been saving money ever since hoping to come to the states and maybe learn alot more from these guys.
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
* UNTIL 545 PM MDT
* AT 435 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES WEST OF
FIRSTVIEW...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTH OF FIRSTVIEW AROUND 455 PM MDT...
8 MILES NORTH OF CHEYENNE WELLS AROUND 505 PM MDT...
6 MILES NORTH OF ARAPAHOE AROUND 520 PM MDT...
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
here is reed's storm TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT
* AT 526 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR SAINT PETER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SAINT PETER AROUND 535 PM CDT...
MORLAND AROUND 555 PM CDT...
PENOKEE AROUND 600 PM CDT...
HILL CITY AROUND 610 PM CDT...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND 113.
A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO HAS BEEN OBSERVED OR INDICATED
BY RADAR. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND COVER UP.
Benkelman...Burlington...
Cheyenne wells...Goodland...Kit carson...Sharon springs...
St. Francis...Wray and yuma...These are all under Tornado warning.
Does anybody think there can be Tornado Outbreak this Saturday over the Ohio Vally. Shear Values are going to be strong and every other ingredient is coming together. It said there is going to be a Squall Line in the Midwest and Supercells in Ohio Vally and Ontario.
Please!!! Give any website that has any data post up in the comments
oh no I live in the Ohio Vally AHAHAHAHAHAHHA
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
WESTERN NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
* AT 619 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
JENNINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CLAYTON AROUND 635 PM CDT...
NORCATUR AROUND 640 PM CDT...
REAGER AROUND 645 PM CDT...
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 89 AND 107.
A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO HAS BEEN OBSERVED OR INDICATED
BY RADAR. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND COVER UP.
Been watching the doppler in the southern states past few days been pretty active. pretty suprised reed and comp hasn't caught any footage of anything yet this week.
WOW! Looks like things are starting to heat up! This storm looks packed with activity. Why my parents picked WY instead of KS or OK is beyond me! My husband wont let me move :(
Maybe you can sell him on Texas! Just as many tornadoes, and a better state in general :)
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 624 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR SAINT PETER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PENOKEE AROUND 635 PM CDT...
HILL CITY AROUND 645 PM CDT
looks like they are in the perfect spot now according to the tracker. :) woooohoooo
ps : anyone got any livestream tv links?
that cell that reed is in it's a supercell.
Wow that cell that reed is on is verry distintive, nice double hooks I am sure there is a tornado there...should move just to the north east of them.
yeah my forecasting is prolly right a stove-pipe tornado
may be on the ground.
That cell looks awesome on the radar...the block spins 360 right around the center ...
Caleb, please link my name. Notice my shadings. Notice the time issued.
I didn't see a forecast or map from you. Provide one tomorrow, and we can talk about you getting the forecasts right. Let's see what you come up with. Draw what TYPE of tornado areas you see as well. Deal?
Reed what are u seeing i have to know
As always you two are right on track - hope you get some great video. BE CAREFUL!!!!!!
I don't like how these look rain wrapped near him. He is about 1-2 miles from it.
The dynamics are coming together for another Us-Canadian Outbreak like 1985. We are infore a crazy Saturday May 26th. I saying north there will be EF3 with 0.25 Mile Wide Tornado. Can this be a repeat of May 31 1985 where there was 41 Tornadoes and one F5. Does anybody think it can happen again.
Anyone have a idea what that storm reed is on is doing, it started to weaken, but now it is strenghtening a bit...but is it outflow dominant?
The cell they are on has a mesocyclone of 2 miles in Diameter it looks like.
omg yes kevin
ok OWSMeteorologist your web site is saved to my
favoites. P.S. I not trying to be mean but I don't
like www.livetornadochat.com. OK I'me sorry
If I hurt your feelings. Your a grate guy.
2355 SAINT PETER GRAHAM KS 3919 10009 GOVE COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TORNADO NEAR ST. PETER. (GLD
Latest report...they are right there...i hope they got some good footage.
Caleb, you didnt at all. I was asking truthfully if you were going to make a map up for the threats tomorrow. I love looking at all kinds of maps from everyone. I hope to not have come off that strong. Btw, click my name again, and you will be directed to another chat. We are in here talking now. Not livetornadochat.com
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
616 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007
KSC065-230030-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-070523T0030Z/
GRAHAM KS-
716 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR GRAHAM
COUNTY...
AT 716 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EMPLOYEES REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
PENOKEE OR SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 283...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HILL CITY AROUND 730 PM CDT...
RESIDENTS OF HILL CITY NEED TO TAKE SHELTER NOW. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON 3954 9987 3945 9961 3934 9972 3913 9999
3913 10014 3913 10014 3928 10014 3929 10016
3955 9995
wow...it shrunk and gre in rapid sucession...The Nws employees...could that be them.
That tornado by Hill City looks big on the radar.
thanks OWSMeteorologist I'me not Meteorologist
stormspotter or chaser I'me just a 10 year old boy
sitting here on my mom's laptop. when I'me grow up
I want to be a stormchaser for the NSSL.
Getting verrry close to Hill City.
Looks like they got pounded by large hail...
Reed just called and has some photos and video of what he called a "beautiful elephant trunk" tornado. They got stuck in the mud but are underway again after yet another supercell.
wakeen might have some base ball size hail
awww man this supercell is dissapating.
well Caleb
For a 10 year old boy, you are very smart! I am 12 years older then you, and you know more about this stuff then I do. But I think boys are smarter then girls! Keep it up! You could be chasing with the best of them when you get through school, that is!
this is the smartest thing i know mesocyclone is an area of vertically oriented atmospheric rotation usually but not always cyclonic that is most often associated with a localized low pressure region within a severe thunderstorm. The phenomenon is normally relatively localized in nature lying between the synoptic scale (hundreds of kilometers) and small scale hundreds of meters).
In layman's terms, the mesocyclone is a rotating updraft within a severe thunderstorm around 5 to 10 miles in diameter, that usually spins in the same direction as low pressure systems for a given hemisphere
ost smartest thing I know about tornados
A woman admits it!!!!! jkjk. I plan on chasing pretty soon here, not too long after i get my license
that's nice to hear smt. im glad they are alright and out of the mud. :) and ofcourse great to hear they shot some incredible footage!
Does anyone have any info about the possible tornadic outbreak for Saturday May 26th?
Any chance of an outbreak in northern Ohio (Cleveland area)?
Caleb
Thank you for putting it in laymans terms, i had to read it several times to understand. I was wondering what the definition of mesocyclone was.
Connor
Lets not call girls dumb. Lets just call them uninformed! (it that a word?) SEE!
Connor
Another thing, my husband is more egotistical then I can stand. Theres not a chance that I would ask him to move to TX if it was gonna get worse!
Ok I won't call girls dumb, but in that case, someone's gonna need to explain to me why my sister just almost swallowed a fireant. I laughed.
But I know even most girls aren't on her level.
your welcome jaci If you have any more questions
fil lfree to ask me.
Hey someone please let me know what tomorrow is looking like?
Well, Texan's to have a certain... umm... pride about them that some would call arrogance, or egotisticallness... egotisticallity, whatever. But hey, you can still come visit here. We're happy to have foreigners come visit occasionally!
Texans do, not Texan's to
sorry about that
Ezra click my name for tomorrows outlook
Sweet...i appreciate it...so that means linger in NW oklahoma tomorrow til cells start firing you think?
I guess....but Reed is really the one you should ask ofcourse ;) although Mr Famous is kinda hard to reach these days :P hehe (just kiddn)
Does anyone know what the potential is for a tornado outbreak on Saturday the 26th for the Northern Ohio area (Cleveland area)?
Reed what are you doing you've just ben siting there
for the last hour almost 2 are you wating for that next cell?
My guess is that Reed's tracker is not working - he said when he called that they were headed for another supercell - it has to be getting dark soon though. I am sure he will call or post soon with his latest photos.
how do i get a hold of mr. hotshot and will he even be able to answer before morning?
mostly he'll just answer any questions you have right here on the blog,,mostly
Tracker is back and running...they are in hays...lined up for what looks to be coming a nice squal moving NE.
Look at the tracker you guys he totally moved!
Right on Ben..and now a tornado warned squal line :P wohoooo!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT
* AT 913 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CEDAR BLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CEDAR BLUFF...
RIGA...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN TREGO COUNTY.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
I sure hope something good happens here in northeastern Iowa soon. Last supercell that produced a tornado was May 2000. F-2 I think? Need some killer storms!!!!
That storm they are on is starting to get some definition...N and S hooks...If there is anything its rain wrapped most likely.
Springman: I think at this point you're left to checking out what the Storm Prediction Center has to say, if you haven't already. There are also some long-term forecast models you could look at if you wanted to.
Here's the SPC if you don't have it: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
You'll want to click where it says "Convective Outlooks"
and here's a site that you can look at some models if you feel like it:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/index.php?model=ruc
I am not trained in meteorology so I'm not really the one to ask about using that site, but if you play around with it you might get the hang of it by seeing stuff appear that looks familiar.
Ahh, but females aren't dumb if they "are" informed, you see...heheh.
Caleb, I never would have guessed you're 10...pretty nice! I didn't start getting into meteorology until I was 11, but my dream was all but crushed a couple years later...I'm 22 now and I really hope it's not too late for me. Don't give up your dream, dude!
kid's got the shining, stove-pipe tornado right on the money. Etc etc, Scatman Crothers, etc.