News DetailTornadoes possible in the TX Panhandle today
Posted At: May 21, 2007 @ 1:28 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Despite weak mid-upper flow, supercells and tornadoes are still possible in the TX Panhandle later this afternoon and evening given a strong diurnal low-level jet, moderate instability, and a tight dryline. The 500 mb flow and 0-3 km helicity as forecast by the WRF model for 7 pm CDT this evening are shown below:
As seen above, 25-30 kts out of the WNW will be present over the TX Panhandle as of 7 pm CDT Monday evening, which will yield more than sufficient shear for supercells given SSE surface flow. A low-level jet of 30-40 kts will prevail just above the surface out of the due south, with 700 mb flow out of the due west at around 30 kts. This substantial turning will yield extreme 0-3 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 over this region (above right). The high-res WRF model shows storms initiating from Canada all the way to Mexico by tomorrow evening, with the storms in TX appearing to be discrete supercells.
Based on this information, the SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms for the entire western Great Plains, with a tornado threat in the TX Panhandle where the storm mode will likely be discrete in nature and the low-level shear maximized. We will definitely be chasing this event, so stay tuned to the GPS tracker and to the blog for more updates!
As seen above, 25-30 kts out of the WNW will be present over the TX Panhandle as of 7 pm CDT Monday evening, which will yield more than sufficient shear for supercells given SSE surface flow. A low-level jet of 30-40 kts will prevail just above the surface out of the due south, with 700 mb flow out of the due west at around 30 kts. This substantial turning will yield extreme 0-3 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 over this region (above right). The high-res WRF model shows storms initiating from Canada all the way to Mexico by tomorrow evening, with the storms in TX appearing to be discrete supercells.
Based on this information, the SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms for the entire western Great Plains, with a tornado threat in the TX Panhandle where the storm mode will likely be discrete in nature and the low-level shear maximized. We will definitely be chasing this event, so stay tuned to the GPS tracker and to the blog for more updates!
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Reed, I will be down in the caprock tomorrow afternoon, I think Randy is going to chase the northern end. Give me a call if you can...will be in my truck not the KAKE car. Wana get together?
Sounds like you are ready to rock and roll. Good luck out there bro.
I will be chasing today. Considering I am starting in Borger, my drive may not be that far for once. The RUC is showing some interesting features this morning, looks like a shift to the SE Panhandle if so. Regardless the drive should be short and I can sleep in on this chase day. I am sure I will see a big red truck tomorrow, I seem to just about everytime I chase this year. Good luck today.
Are there any chance of severe weather or tornadoes in Near Pittsburgh in next 7 Days. We are due for another Tornado Outbreak. Are we going to get a May31st 1985, 1998.
Please be carefull out there and Thanks so much for doing what you are doing.
The new RUC looks incredible! 3000+ CAPE, combined with 400-500 3km Helicity. The only negative that I can find is the winds above 500mb, besides that it looks really good. I wish I could go.
Looks like a fun day!
Guys, Dont forget about the Tornado Chat!
www.livetornadochat.com
I am watching a significant outbreak Tuesday Evening/ Overnight into Early Wed Morn before sunrise on my site.
Comparable to the Greensburg tornado dynamics so check that out.
If you are chasing, Reed, I would advise today being Central-Eastern Handle. I already have a TORNADO WATCH out on my site for that area. Also testing my High Resolution Tornado Watch boxes which pinpoint areas to a T. Good luck.
Hey what does it look like for the St.Louis Area this week ny one know thanks for your time, oh kevin get on the livetornadochat dude havnt talked to u in awhile lol and good luck Reed be safe.
Hey if ya'll come through Perryton stop in for a burger! Good Luck Guys....and hey those cameras have zoom on them, try not to get so close! LOL
I just wanted to share this stormchasing moment with the tornadovideos.net team. We stopped at arbys in weatherford to stop and eat arby's. Well we got it to go because we were in a hurry (per ilya). Anywho, ilya decided to try to carry 5 sauces, not the to-go sauce packets, but in the dine-in containers. When he arrived to the car sauces exploded everywhere!! His food hit the ground and mass chaos insued. Then when we pulled out he put his cup on the roof and he lost his drink. Not off to a good start over here.
Reed how big of a tornado thret... and what is the chance
of an EF3+.
We're turning around...10 knots at 300 won't get the job done. No need to even activate the tracker!!
Tomorrow looks incredible though.
yeah sure do0es. Lets hope for a non greensburg type event, though this is what it looks like as that trough hangs in the exact same spot as that event. Evening/Night Tuesday looks so bad.
yeah we don't want another EF5 tornado again.
but it's better for scientists's studing tornado.
Where are ya'll looking tomorrow?
All my watches today have verified, and last one to is the TX Panhandle Tornado watch.
For tomorrow Toby, it def looks dangerous, and for the same areas as the Greensburg event was.
Same trough patter, jet dynamics, etc. It's all nearly identical. Going to be interesting to watch, especially as the Low Level jet increases Tuesday NIGHT
Tornado or not these storms are still pretty kick butt right out here west of us in Perryton.
Thanks Kevin!
toby if shifting winds above the thunderstorm
could make them rotate.
toby if shifting winds above the thunderstorm
could make them rotate.
uuuuuu...... my computer did this It repeted
the sentence and then then my Internet shut down.
Welcome Toby.
I take it you are chasing. Are you chasing the next event tomorrow which is going to make today look like a very small baby I bet. If so, i'll still have my tornado watch areas ready on my site section. When reed picks his target and makes another section here, i'll post about where looks primed etc on the subject. Regardless where it will happen, whereever it does, it's going to be bad if it hits a city again.
I don't usually chase unless it is right around here Kevin, I live in Perryton. Needless to say, I have had some good chances to see some stuff this year. On nights like this I live through Reed and Joel and all you other guys that go all over and get insane video for us!
Followed the storms around Borger to around Pampa, TX today. Saw a possible landspout and had a dust devil pass right in front of my car. Got some cool pictures of it as it crossed across a caliche road, so it was a white dust devil. Tomorrow will be fun though.
Today looks like shit. Not sure what SPC sees in Wednesday either. Currently in Dodge City. Don't try and get a hotel here, there are no rooms. We found the last one in town. Probably be throwing the disc around somewhere north of here tomorrow, maybe bust out the hibachi and cook some brats waiting for something to fire.
I don't know what you mean. I am forecasting a tornado outbreak in spots today. KS looks prime, then many spots to choose from at or near sunset. I have my tornado dynamic maps up for this event, so click the name to see them if you are chasing. Stay safe.
Kevin, is it forecasted to stay east of us here in Perryton, Texas? Looks like your model has us in it around dark.
Looks like I have you in at sunset, and after it a bit. Seems like your city is right on top of the convergence lines, and shear areas. I'd watch the skies today around your area. Stay safe.
Ok thanks Kevin!