News DetailSevere weather possible in the Northern Plains early next week!
Posted At: May 17, 2007 @ 11:47 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A shortwave trough will propagate across the Northern Plains this Sunday - Tuesday, providing the upper support for a few potential severe weather outbreaks from Montana (Sunday) through Minnesota (Tuesday). Right now, it appears Monday will provide the highest chance for tornadoes across the Dakotas. Here are some GFS forecast parameters for Monday afternoon.
The dewpoints shown in the lower left appear to be largely evapotranspirated, meaning the moisture originates from existing plants rather than being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Evapotranspirated moisture is often very shallow, and can easily be mixed out during the afternoon. Given adequate wind shear for supercells and tornadoes, it appears right now that moisture could be the only limiting factor. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Central/Northern Plains in their experimental 4-8 day severe outlook. Stay tuned for more updates.
The dewpoints shown in the lower left appear to be largely evapotranspirated, meaning the moisture originates from existing plants rather than being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Evapotranspirated moisture is often very shallow, and can easily be mixed out during the afternoon. Given adequate wind shear for supercells and tornadoes, it appears right now that moisture could be the only limiting factor. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Central/Northern Plains in their experimental 4-8 day severe outlook. Stay tuned for more updates.
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Dakota chasing would be great.....but no funds to get me there....Instead I have to wait until something knocks on my door here in Ohio or wait until Reed and Joel start their own tour chases.....AHHHHHHHHH...I can't wait! (I'll have to bring some Depends though)
check out this video that I shot
on vacation in 2004 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4567972041359569053&q=waterspout&hl=en
Caleb, great video! I've never seen one actually come on shore like that...
So... does this one call for a chase? Either way, do you see any target areas at this point?
Caleb I've always wanted to see video of one of those.
if you liked that one you will ove this one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmv72Xqx9fI
Hi there! Great stuff on this site. I have a quick question not related to this particular blog entry but maybe someone can answer it. We had several severe thunderstorms in Connecticut yesterday. Funnel clouds were spotted and even photographed (One pic may still be posted at http://www.wtnh.com/). However, not a single tornado warning was ever issued. How is that possible?
sorry I made a mistake It's love not ove LOL
Northern Plains sounds fun, but the gas prices are completely out of control.
Davect...I wasn't in front of my computer yesterday, so I did not see those storms on radar. The feature in the picture you provided may actually not be a funnel cloud...although we'd have to see the video to know for sure. It looks like an outflow/non-rotating scud feature to me...
I'll check out the archived radar data and see if there was any rotation with the storms...I checked the SPC storm reports this morning and no tornadoes were officially reported, but it looked like a MAJOR wind event.
Caleb...that video is AMAZING! I've always wanted to do some waterspout chasing...my friend is heading out to Key West over memorial day weekend to see some waterspouts..I hear they're very common.
Reed,
Thanks for the reply. The TV meteorologist was just on. He said yesterday's damage was likely straight line winds. But he also said he showed that picture to several meteorologists and they unanimously declared that a funnel cloud.
Any possible tornadoes in Montana at any time next week? Especially in south central Montana? Because i would really like to know. Do u think it would be favorable for at least some very small tornadoes?
Dave those funnel clouds could have been what they call Cold air funnel clouds...Cold air funnel clouds rarely touch down, when they do they are still classified as a tornado, they are usually weak, and short lasting...i forget the Conditions needed for cold air funnels...i believe it is when Cold air near the ground rushes up into the hot air? Something like that.I'm sure Reed might know.
Reed do you know where the system from the plains is going? And any threat from it farther east(Illinios)? Or do u think this cooler weather will turn it in to a washout?
Ben that is not how it form The tornado formation process is very comlex. A tornado is formed by a severe or a super cell thunderstorm. The updraft fuels the storm by blowing warm, moist air into the cloud from the ground. The updraft needs 2 things to happen for a tornado to occur: first dry air must flow into the down draft and second the cold moist air must mix with the hot, dry air. The balance of air must be perfect for a tornado to occur.Alternatively, a tornado can also form from thunderstorms created by hurricanes. In conclusion, it takes a good amount of luck for a tornado to occur but when they do occur, they are devastating.
Hey, Reed! I was looking at the 4-8 day outlook, and noticed that the Day 5 risk likely includes us here in Southern Manitoba, Canada. Do you think that the storm risk will make it up to Winnipeg? Please reply! Oh, and if you want to see an image of a tornado that hit out region last August, let me know! See ya'!
Hi. It's me again. Just thought I'd also let you know that the canadian forecast models are calling for a severe weather outbreak in southern manitoba for tomorrow, Friday. I will be watching these storm, and hope for a few supercells! Wish me luck! Bye(for real this time!lol)!
Hi everyone! I found a great video ! It looks like it was taken
by helicopter! wow!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFeufWFPVm4&NR=1
crazy weather here in Montreal, Quebec...last week we had about 26 degres celcius (78.8 F) and last night we had snow...pffft!
Jonathan tornadoes are very rear in Canada
so probibly not. but there can be severe thunderstorms
P.S the last tornado to hit Canada was in 1974.
Southern Manitoba definitely looks interesting for tomorrow, especially around and after 00z when the low-level jet kicks in. We'll be chasing up in your region later this summer...
But it seems the action is shifting north a little earlier than normal!
Caleb...tornadoes are actually very common in Canada, especially from late June through August. A very strong tornado hit Edmonton in the late 90s I believe. Eastern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba probably see just as many tornadoes as Nebraska through North Dakota...
We're planning a major Canadian storm chasing vacation this July.
To Caleb:
You're right, tornadoes are rare in canada but the last one was not in 1974...go to this site, you'll see! Those are just for the province of Quebec and ther's much more in Alberta, Saskatchewan an Manitoba...
http://www.natureinsolite.com/tornades/tornades.html
To Caleb:
we had some tornadoes here in Quebec, but none of them were over F1...
...sorry...I found one which was an F2... learning new things everyday!
here is another site for the tornadoes in Quebec... I was in Vercheres in 2005 when the F1 tornado hits...but I didn't saw it...
http://www.criacc.qc.ca/climat/suivi/tornade_f.html
oh but on TWC thay said that tornadoes are rare in
Canada.
Caro that was the Fridley minasota tornado in
1986. the rating was a F2 or F3. check out this video
I showed reed he said he loved It. hope you do to http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4567972041359569053&q=waterspout&hl=en
to Caleb: We don't have as much as there is in the tornado alley, but we have between 80 and 100 tornadoes by year here.
I saw this video! wow! impressive! Thanks for sending it!
Reed, the Edmonton tornado killed 27 people and it was in jJuly 1987, here is a video of it...
http://thecanadianencyclopedia.com/index.cfm?PgNm=TCE&Params=F1ARTF0008048
??...i just read that we are 2nd, after U.S.A for the tornadoes in the world... that sounds weard!
can someone tell me what is the difference between the words "tornado" and "twister"?
Caro-
There is no difference. They mean the same thing.
Caro: tornado and twister mean the same thing, although tornado is the word you would find in scientific writing
The US is the country most people think about when they here tornadoes, but there are quite a few other places that get them. Canada, northern Mexico, Bangladesh, eastern India, and I believe Argentina and South Africa as well (not as sure on these two). The tornadoes in Bangladesh and India are quite likely very violent. Some of the severe weather parameters they have over there are comparable or greater than what we get in the US for our biggest outbreaks. Canada also likely has several strong tornadoes every year.
The problem is that most countries don't have the spotter network or storm chasers like the US. A lot of the tornadoes go undocumented, especially if they don't cause significant damage.
Reed mentioned earlier that he and I are planning to spend a week or two up in Canada later this summer to try and catch some Canadian twisters. It will be nice feeling like the only ones on a storm for a change. Many times when were chasing in the southern plains there can easily be thirty to fifty other vehicles on the same storm.
Joel
Thanks for the infos Joel! I hope you will have a great time here in Canada!
Heath, I don't know where you live in Ohio but on Tuesday there was a tornado in Clark County and here in Columbus (Franklin Co) we had winds near 65mph and several trees were down with a quick storm that blew thru about 1230am. Cold here tonight with a low of 38 feels good if you ask me.
BTW, cool videos posted as well.
buckeye gerb
Thanks for all the responses, everyone! I think that we are gonna see some possibly violent weather tomorrow here in Southern Manitoba! Other than the forecast models, I assume this because there is a HUGE arctic front coming from the north, which will obviously be a major trigger for severe storms, as North of this front in Central and Northern Manitoba, it's cold enough for SNOW, and they're gonna get a lot of it! Environment Canada has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Central and Northern Manitoba. They're expected to get upwards of 3-5 inches of snow(10-20 cm.) over there! Lucky for us in Winnipeg, it's not gonna get that cold, and tomorrow our high will be around a warm 86°F (30°C), with a cold low of 28°F(-2°C), due to the front. I can't wait 'til tomorrow! I'm so excited!!!!!
Wow......we've got early storms firing off a trough in the area, and there's a lot of lightning right now, and it's the kind the crawls across the sky. It looks amazing!
This week a tornado chase team from the Netherlands (DutchTREx) went to America, they stay from May 13th to June 18th. Hope they see some tornados too. I'll post links of photos and videos when they see something.
Two years ago they saw this tornado: http://breeze.meteocon.nl/dutchtex/movies/2004_small.wmv
The tornado was visible for half an hour
Gerb131, It's nice to have another Buckeye in the chat....O-H...Yeah, I heard about the torando in Clark but didn't know one hit Franklin County. I live in Waynesville (The Antique Capital of the Midwest) and we had nickel size hail that night. Some strong winds...but that storm that hit Clark Co. was definately rotating. One of the great things is....I live 10 minutes south of Xenia so you know every 5-10 years something will hit there.
Buckeye Heath
P.S. Hey Reed, Anything new on the tour chases yet?
Reed, Joel....get in touch with us on Monday, we should be out, maybe we can catch up?
Heath: We're going to have the tours up and running by next storm season for sure. Our plan is to have the website up by winter. I'll keep you updated.
Will you be heading to the Northern Plains Lanny??
Reed have you ever put a probe In a path of a big tornado? the next big tornado you chase put a probe
In the path. here is a sample. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHAYYJwbayU
It definitely would have been easy for us to do on May 4! It's too bad we don't have a camera probe.
We've got some major plans for the near future...Once things become more clear we'll post an update.
Whoaaa...chase tours...I'm so in on that!!!
Reed, sorry took so long to get back with you....yes I will be in the Northern Plains, Randy and I plan on meeting early in Nebraska, you guys up for some friendly competiton?? lol lol I can see it now,
The Outlaws vs Reed and company!!
BTW, great stuff in Ellis Co. Did you see our Greesburg stuff? Lan