News DetailSupercells possible again today in Montana
Posted At: May 13, 2007 @ 12:55 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A strong shortwave trough will move across western Montana today, with winds backing to an ENE direction across eastern MT in response to the associated pressure falls to the lee of the Rocky Mountains. A W-E oriented tongue of marginal instability will develop along and north of the WY/MT state line, with sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. The RUC forecast 500 mb flow and CAPE for later this evening are shown above. Based on the RUC forecast, the low-level shear is very marginal for tornadoes, with 700 mb flow only expected to be around 15 knots. However, with ENE surface winds, substantial directional shear will be in place, so an isolated small tornado cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for this area, with 5% tornado probabilities over southeast MT where instability will be maximized. Stay tuned for updates!
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Check out Texas, super cell might be forming possible tornado?
wow blake that is a disapating bow echo with winds over
50 mph. might not be a tornado but a gusnado.
but it could begin to rotate. and no affence but
supercell is 1 word. hope this helps.
And since Caleb is being picky about spelling, it's offence, not affence.
Aaaand I think it's gustnado, not gusnado...heheh.
Damn, I wish we would get some action around here in California. Our 10 day:
May 13 Mostly Sunny
73°/54° 10%
73°F
Mon May 14 Mostly Sunny
73°/55° 0%
73°F
Tue May 15 Partly Cloudy
73°/56° 10%
73°F
Wed May 16 Partly Cloudy
76°/59° 10%
76°F
Thu May 17 Sunny
80°/60° 10%
80°F
Fri May 18 Sunny
81°/61° 10%
81°F
Sat May 19 Sunny
80°/60° 10%
80°F
Sun May 20 Sunny
79°/59° 10%
79°F
Mon May 21 Sunny
75°/59° 10%
75°F
AAARRRRGGGHHHH!!!
hi
The VAD out of Billings shows stronger flow at low levels than the models indicated. There is also a supercell with a strong mesocyclone just to the west of the radar site...
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BLX
The VAD link is at the bottom.
im a little surprised that there is no tvs. the base and sr seem to me like there may be some rotation
Those storms definitely look outflow dominant now...it looked like there was a strong boundary surging southward earlier when the storms were more supercellular. This could have killed them.
Still..golfball size hail reported near Billings.
Reed & Joel:
I was looking at SPC Day 2 Outlook earlier. and (for one who lives in the Twin Cities Metro in Minnesota (Minneapolis) noticed that on the precentage it was at 30%. then I look at the info about of possible supercells including Tornados, Large Hail & Damaging Winds. also I was looking thru the forecast. It is about 90 now. 89 tomarrow. then will drop to 68 on Tuesday. My questions are: When should be Minnesota be on the lookout? Will the Slight Risk be upgraded to a Moderate? Is a Tornado Watch likely? so please provide as much info on this system as possible.
Thanks
Antone
MDSONG@aol.com
Thanks for posting Antone,
After looking at this morning's models, it looks like there is a large chance for severe weather tomorrow, with large hail and strong straightline winds being the main threat. One limitation for tornadoes is the veering low-level flow as the day progresses (winds acquiring a more westerly component with time), limiting the low-level shear and increasing the mixing of drier air aloft to the surface. If storms can develop along some kind of pre-frontal wind shift, where low-level shear will still be sufficient to the east, then there is a chance for tornadoes...Right now, it looks like this could happen my mid-late afternoon in extreme southeast MN (closer to Rochester) and WI...but this also seems unlikely. If things change with later model runs, I'll let you know....and I'll post about this setup later on tonight as the situation becomes more clear.