News DetailLow-topped supercells possible today in IN/OH!
Posted At: April 26, 2007 @ 1:02 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A strong, vertically-stacked storm system has now moved into the Great Lakes Region, with a surface low located just south of Lake Michigan in IL, and a warm front extending eastward across northern IN and OH. ~60F dewpoints have advected northward into the warm sector along and south of the warm front, resulting in small, but sufficient instability with CAPEs around 500 J/kg. A tornado watch has just been issued for this area:
The best low-level shear exists in the vicinity of the warm front across northern IN/OH, where surface winds are more backed. As storms move across the warm front, they will have a heightened chance of producing a tornado. It appears that surface-based storms are initiating in western IN at this time, so these storms will have a chance of going tornadic as the cross the warm front in northern IN over the next few hours. This area of storms will gradually move eastward throughout the day, with new storms likely developing in central IN and moving NNE towards northern OH.
The RUC model shows a low-level jet intensifying towards 7 pm over western OH, so the tornado threat should subsequently increase to the south of the warm front across western and central OH later this evening. The RUC forecast 850 mb (left) and 500 mb (right) flow is shown below. Given the low CAPE and low tropopause height over this region, the supercells will be very low-topped and small in size. However, they are still capable of producing tornadoes. Stay tuned for updates!
The best low-level shear exists in the vicinity of the warm front across northern IN/OH, where surface winds are more backed. As storms move across the warm front, they will have a heightened chance of producing a tornado. It appears that surface-based storms are initiating in western IN at this time, so these storms will have a chance of going tornadic as the cross the warm front in northern IN over the next few hours. This area of storms will gradually move eastward throughout the day, with new storms likely developing in central IN and moving NNE towards northern OH.
The RUC model shows a low-level jet intensifying towards 7 pm over western OH, so the tornado threat should subsequently increase to the south of the warm front across western and central OH later this evening. The RUC forecast 850 mb (left) and 500 mb (right) flow is shown below. Given the low CAPE and low tropopause height over this region, the supercells will be very low-topped and small in size. However, they are still capable of producing tornadoes. Stay tuned for updates!
Calendar
Categories
WAAAA look at that cell west of pittsburgh its incredible! :P
Here we go.........don't see much of this stuff in Ohio...I just wish I lived in Toledo on a day like this!! Oh well....hopefully something small will spawn in Dayton! Hey Reed....Why didn't you make the trip to Ohio??? J/K!
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE MORE FLOOD-PRONE CREEKS
AND STREAMS IN THE AREA TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...THE
THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH...BUT
NEITHER IS IT NEGLIGIBLE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR LIKELY
WOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
They dont put us under a slight risk very often around here in Jersey...should be an interesting day tomorrow...if i can ill grab some video if we get anything decent...might be a little busy with my fire dept. though
HA! Once I finally graduate, the plan is to chase EVERYTHING! aaaaaaaaaaaaa
Good luck out there...I'd head north and play the warm front, or wait until around 6-9 pm in western OH when the LLJ gets cranking.
Sounds like a great plan Reed :P
Well it looks like I'm under tornado watch here in East Tennessee. I let yall know if anything happens
Chase everything?? Man...when would you have time to meet any women? (Oh yeah...I remember what you said about that in "Tornado Glory!") I'll try and head a little North after work....or I'll just set up camp in Xenia and wait for it to come after me....Do you see anything happening around I-70,I-75 interchange??
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
409 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007
TNC035-262130-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070426T2130Z/
CUMBERLAND TN-
409 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF
CROSSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. RADAR ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO JUST NORTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CROSSVILLE THROUGH 430 PM CDT...
CRAB ORCHARD AND 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRFIELD GLADE BY 430 PM
CDT...
Just wanted to say how cool it is to see your videos on documentaries. Last night I was watching the National Geographic channel and the subject was the tornado outbreak of 1974. And I was like hey I know that clip. You guys must have a lot of stuff out there by now I'd guess.
OUTBREAK hold the line!
Oh yeah forgot I saw another program earlier called Tornado Intercept. Some insane guy wanted to drive his car into a tornado....and at the end of the program he apparently did lol. He left his pregnant wife home to do this stunt. My God. Is there a documentary out there about Storm Chasers?
That storm in eastern TN looks very good on radar. I bet the terrain isn't too good in Cumberland Co...so even it produces we may not know.
Hey Danny...was it the tornado intercept vehicle special?
Yeah thats the one. They had mobile Doppler Radars along with that guys space ship car. Happen to run across him on your chases?
Just answered my question...We actually saw the TIV after we saw the Tulia tornado. There was another tornado at night, that I believe they were trying to drive through...they were driving at about 10 mph down the middle of the road, and wouldn't let us pass...finally we were able to, and about 8 miles down the road we saw a large tornado to our north, and another mile down the road we ran into the damage path with telephone poles blocking the road...if they were trying to drive through it they were about 10 miles behind. Every time we see them out there it seems they are a little behind the tornado...but I heard they may have been successful on Monday.
no wonder hes always behind in that slow ass car,,btw i got 4counties under tornado warning
Thats insane. You guys are video capturing the tornadoes and this guy wants to fly through them.
A curious question for you guys....ever stop to film a twister and get back in your car and find that it won't start?
I think I messed that question up lol. I meant to say that with the scenario of the twister moving in your direction.
Yea, the terrain isnt that great there but they usually get pretty bad tornadoes there. They had a deadly F-3 just a few years ago. BTW, I live in La Follette which is in Campbell County
Reed do you sometimes get excited just by looking at the radar or did all those years of stormchasing made u crave only the real thing?
I don't mean to nit pick Reed lol but on the middle image on this subject you spelled threat wrong ;-P
I saw the tornado intercept car when watching kenny's web cam the other day. They drove right by the chasers car and the guy behind the cam turned it so we could see them. Kinda funny, people see them all over the place!
Some people vacation to islands and beach resorts and places with theme parks...I think I'd want to do a week of storm chasing for damn sure.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-070426tornadoes,1,1384345.story?coll=chi-news-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true
Tornado may have touched down in the Chicago suburbs, too!
Im sitting here in the lower part of michigan watching these storms in Indiana and Ohio, hoping they hold together long enough to bring me something fun to watch. Its been about 6 years or so since our last tornado in my area.
We've never had a problem with the car not starting...It would be exhilarating to ride one out in a ditch...as long as we didn't get injured of course.
We sustained a direct hit from an F-0 in Minnesota one time..I think I mentioned it before. We were sand blasted and hit by corn stalks. Once I have the chase logs page totally finished I'll have a video clip of that incident.
Looks like the potential for a low-topped supercell outbreak today.
CRAZY
A patrol car was flipped over by a tornado in La Porte, IN! Mobile home damaged in Cumberland...thought that cell had a tornado with it. there are already more than 5 reports in N Indiana.
Yea, the storm is still tornado warned for Morgan County, but maybe nothing down at the moment. Looks like this storm is heading for me in La Follette.
They're definitely becoming tornadic as they cross the warm front. If cells can remain isolated in that convective line in central IN they could go nuts as they cross the warm front in northeast IN/northwest OH, unless daytime heating disappears by that time.
Alrighty my county has just been warned, looks just barely to miss LaFollette. If it wasnt so mountainess here I would go chase it but its would be very difficult here.
Campbell County hasnt had an offical tornado reports since 1950, purhaps that streak may end today. I let yall know if I found anything else.
check out this tornado video- this guy is about as crazy as you Reed! his house was like getting distroyed when filming this, crazy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2cFXBWqjKE
Yeah, in central KY we've got a tornado watch, but so far there have been no reports of tornado warnings. There was a storm warning called for our county for one cell that just went through (pea-size hail reported in Richmond, KY), and we're about to get another cell in a few mins.
Wow, got a lot action going over there! my Grandparents live in Washington, Indiana I hope they're okay!? :( Anyone know if a Tornado hit there?????
All I can say is, I'm in indianapolis, and even out east where the tornado watch was issued, it's been tame here in central IN. I went out west to meet the line of storms at about 6, but it was mostly rain. So boring. Mother nature hates me, or hates indianapolis...I can't decide...
Tornado warning in Bath county, KY, though I have to say I don't know the roads out that way pretty well as well as it's fairly hilly there too, so anything could be hidden til it's on top of people basically.
that youtube video was awesome. that guy is ridiculous and is extremely lucky to be alive.
Yeah that video was INCREDIBLE! I love old tornado footage like that.
I think all the tornado reports so far have been confined to extreme northwest IN near La Porte.
It looks like the loss of daytime heating is going to hurt us here in Dayton, OH. Everything is breaking up quickly...and the strength of these storms continues to weaken. Oh well, hopefully we get a couple more opportunities this year! Hey Reed,....How much does it cost to chase with you a couple of days??
the ruc makes it look like the llj will intensify more over eastern ohio than western ohio. the shear and dewpoints look favorable still. id look for storms in the ne qudrant of ohio
that video where the guy is filming as his neighborhood gets wiped out - I have that on a tornado highlights VHS tape, and on it the narrator says the guy was struck by lightning while filming (you can hear him say "I got struck" on the video) and eventually knocked unconscious by debris from his own house. Yeah - that is the definition of INSANE right there!
Tornado warning in NE Colorado. Kinda far from all the rest of the action.
Local news is reporting a law enforcement report of a tornado touchdown near Muses Mill, KY (in Fleming County) No word on any damage or anything else yet...
Denver Under Tornado Warning! Interesting place for it.
"AT 620 PM MDT...THE ADAMS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
OVER DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHEAST
OF DENVER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH."
I dont think this is good for Air Traffic, Or the airport.
Heath: We're planning on starting up a tour company beginning next year...Hopefully we'll have a website up by next winter. It's going to be much smaller and more personalized than the tours already out there, so we can be more mobile and get people closer to the action. We don't have anything going this year...as we just have a pick-up truck. I'll keep you updated if you're interested.
That YouTube video is of the June 27, 1992 Fritch, TX (just north of Amarillo). It was rated an F4. I remember seeing this storm from Ama, it was huge. This thing took out some brick houses as well, a well deserved F4 rating. That is probably the only video you will see of that tornado. I have seen some others, but it was by locals years ago, only way to see those now is to go track down the footage from them.
ABSOFRICKINLUTELY!!!
I would be there in a second.....I'm sure we will have to sign a waiver form....that way if I blow all the way back to Ohio on an F-5 they couldn't come after you....Please keep me posted!
What are the tours like around there currently?
Most of the current tours I know of usually stay very far from the tornado. They pack several people in vans, so it's very difficult to stay mobile, and get close to tornadoes safely. We're going to work out something.
Thats what I thought they would do. I'd rather risk my ass to see one close.
Man that stormy weather everyone has been seeing I think finally arrived early this morning. I woke up at 4am to crackling thunder. Extremely close lightning strikes in the Bronx. It's the first stormy weather I've seen so far this year. Barely got any sleep after that because the alarm went off for work. At least it's Friday.