News DetailTornado Outbreak Possible Today!
Posted At: April 21, 2007 @ 8:16 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
An outbreak of severe weather is likely over the High Plains of TX, KS, and NE today, with the likelihood of tornadoes and enormous hail. Sufficient moisture, incredible low-level shear, and a powerful vort max will set the stage for tornado-producing supercells by mid-late afternoon. Our target area is between Amarillo and Plainview, TX where CAPEs will be maximized. The Saturday morning WRF forecast CAPE, helicity, and 850 mb flow for Saturday evening is displayed below.
As seen above left, the WRF is forecasting a narrow corridor of uncapped instability just to the east of the dryline, which is co-located with extreme 0-1 km and 0-3 km helicity. If the moisture situation was slightly better, an outbreak of strong tornadoes would be definite. Still though, mid-upper 50 dewpoints should be more than sufficient for tornadoes. The SPC has issued a moderate risk in their Day 1 outlook (see below), along with a 10% area for tornadoes. A hatched area for the possibility of strong tornadoes was also included. The tracker has been activated, and updates will be posted frequently!
As seen above left, the WRF is forecasting a narrow corridor of uncapped instability just to the east of the dryline, which is co-located with extreme 0-1 km and 0-3 km helicity. If the moisture situation was slightly better, an outbreak of strong tornadoes would be definite. Still though, mid-upper 50 dewpoints should be more than sufficient for tornadoes. The SPC has issued a moderate risk in their Day 1 outlook (see below), along with a 10% area for tornadoes. A hatched area for the possibility of strong tornadoes was also included. The tracker has been activated, and updates will be posted frequently!
Calendar
Categories
Good Luck on the chase! Ill be monitoring and taking radar pictures from GRLevel3!
Cant wait for the next update! :)
New RUC, WRF maximize 0-1 (250+) and 0-3 (400+) SRH's in the Central/NC TX Panhandle by 0z... The dryline also is forecasted to bulge nicely towards AMA, and extend off to the NNW to the Sfc Low in SE Co. This orientation should allow storms to fire, and then easily move off the dryline and produce. Going to be huge!
The Dumas-Borger to Guymon-Perryton area is in serious trouble today. Stand down!
All right - here we go.
There is still a low level cloud deck over the eastern TX panhandle. But, it looks like the sun popping through and should help mix out the layer and erode the clouds. Surface heating may be limited due to the cloud deck but it will also keep the dewpoint depression more managable. I would look for a target area near Shamrock initially.
I am curious to see where Reed is headed!
Hi Reed - stay safe! We will be watching the tracker all day - hope you see something!
I see that Reed has stopped in Amarillo. The cloud deck is finally start to mix out from west to east. AMA quickly shot up to the upper 60s temperature wise once the sun popped out. Currently AMA is sitting at 67/54 with at SE wind around 15. LBB is sitting at 75/57 but the winds are more SSW. The dryline is still hanging out along the TX/NM border. SB CAPE just west of AMA is already at 2000 j/kg. It looks as if the wind fields will continue to stregthen with the approaching upper level storm.
Good luck and be safe out there fellas. Hope to see some great video from you guys.
Yeah we're sitting at Sam's Club in AMA...waiting to see where the dryline is going to set up. We just got sandwich bags to help preserve some softball size hail stones with our portable freezer...unfortunately SC forces you to buy 500..
goto tesco or sainsburys! that's my advice! WOOPS! I forget you don't have these in the states do you? how would I ever manage without?
Something to make reed smile :-) LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSadVkKMk4A&mode=related&search=
Good Choice Gary :)