News DetailSPC issues moderate risk for Saturday!
Posted At: April 20, 2007 @ 12:55 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate risk on their Day 2 outlook for Saturday, April 21. As mentioned in the previous post, the low- and deep-layer shear is forecast to be EXTREME! The only thing preventing a definite tornado outbreak is the modest low-level moisture. However, dewpoints will still likely be sufficient for several tornadoes. STAY TUNED!
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I have seen several LARGE blobs over Kansas, Sth Texas, wisconsin and one other state....any idea what these are?
Sent at 11am BST.
Should be a ton of chasers out there since this is coming together on the weekend. I see some nice video coming from you in the next 48 hours. Large hail looks guaranteed, hopefully the low level shear will be strong enough to bring the rotation down. Have fun.
Hey Reed,
What do you think are the severe chances in the Middle TN area for next week. To me it looks like we could see pop up thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday, with Thursday being our best bet for severe weather. What do you think?
Thanks
CONCENTATE.
After the triathlon tomorrow, I will be live from the Weather Center for any needed updates.
I am chasing tomorrow and I think we could see some naders along the I27 corridor and points west. I think we may get some good stuff if the moisture can stay in place. We have mid 50s tds in the E Panhandle and most of OK and KS.
After the new model runs, the moisture problem seems to be going back in the right direction, atleast that is what the wrf shows. Very nice dryline bulge between LBB and CDS from 0z to 6Z saturday evening. I was ready to sit this one out, but it is looking to hard not to go out even with the potential for monday and tuesday. I am staying away from the hail this time, i really dont want to buy another headlight case.
i wish i lived in usa
I'll be out chasing as well. Now I just need to decide if I should to stay in the Lubbock area (I live in Lubbock) or head north...any suggestions?
Josh,
I would stay in Lubbock or maybe move to Plainview I dont think you need anymore than that ATTM, but that could change. I expect a fun chase down in your area tomorrow. My target is either Lubbock or Plainview.
Personally i would stay there in Lubbock, that way as the day progresses tomorrow you can make your move in what ever direction looks best. I may end up in the lubbock area by tomorrow afternoon, especially if the WRF looks to verify. The panhandle is a tricky place to chase. The canadian river limits roads incredibly north of Amarillo till about Dumas (I would know, I am from Borger). Southeast of Amarillo is Palo Duro Canyon, even worse roads around there. Just make sure you have good maps or GPS. Dont drive down dirt roads in the panhandle unless they are dry, most roads are clay or worse and you will be stuck in about 10 feet.
So who knows what dfw will look like over the next week?
Yeah I agree with Michael and Wes...the upper flow is a little more veered further south, but I wouldn't go much south of Lubbock because then the temp/dewpoint spreads may be too high.
The faster solution with the dryline is helping us with the moisture situation, but I'm worried that storm won't be able to move off the boundary as easily and we may have a squall line situation.
We'll be setting up in the Lubbock/Plainview area as well. Good luck everyone..and I'm sure we'll see you out there.
David: It looks like you'll have a chance for severe weather middle-late part of next week. The tornadic potential will definitely become more clear as we get closer to the event.
Things could definitely get active in the DFW area the middle of next week (esp. Tuesday right now)...It looks like a very active pattern!!
That should be exciting. unfortunately i'm only 15 so i dont really have a way to chase, and i'm in the middle of Plano, so any tornadoes we do get could be very destructive.
Maybe 3rd time is the charm. :)
1st: 5 Tornadoes
2nd: Downburts and a surprize tornado (It was only 59 after all and raining all day.)
3rd: Tornado Outbreak or some awsome hail maybe? :D
Hey Reed whats up, what do u think St.Louis will have in the way of Severe Storms Next week, hope to see some more videos good luck tomorrow.
Looks good for this weekend, atm i see some severe weather in South Dakota close to Fort Pierre
What is usually the best month for tornado's btw? I thought May is the best month for tornado's, i'm not sure.
St Louis may have a few storms on Sunday, but at this time, it looks like the severe threat is minimal. Next week's svr should stay south of you, but things can definitely change.
May is the most active months for tornadoes, so we're definitely coming up on the climatological peak!
Heads up Guys,
Cells are starting to fire south of AMA, Storms went Svr About 5 minutes ago, already have about 2 inch hail by radar.
Thanks Reed ya we really havent had much severe weather this year besides a few storms one did produce a weak ef0 tornado that just barley nipped St.Louis about a month ago and some hail well good luck and becareful tomorrow.
Large tornado on the ground in S. Central Nebraska, about to cross I-80. Its a sign.....
Yeeah. Let's get it started.
Wonder what that tornado will be rated. Reading the storm reports it looked pretty intense EF3 or so. Have fun and be safe over the weekend.
I've been stuck a few times in these parts (not during storms) so I've learned my lesson on dirt roads Good luck to everyone and thanks for the info.
ill be watching on here
goodluck chasers
Let's get it on!!!
I'll try to get to the place for tornadoes Maybe somewhere in Illinios so i won't have to be in the car for long. i'm 13.
I'll try to get to the place for tornadoes Maybe somewhere in Illinios so i won't have to be in the car for long. i'm 13.