News DetailHigh Plains tornado event possible Saturday!
Posted At: April 19, 2007 @ 11:53 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As a potent upper trough moves through the Rocky Mountain Region, an intense low level jet will develop over the High Plains from TX north to NE, resulting in modest moisture return and incredible wind shear. The SPC has issued a slight risk for this region (shown below):
Our target area right now is the extreme western TX Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, from Hobbs to Clovis. Surface winds will be strong out of the southeast (below right), and dewpoints will be in the low to mid-50s, yielding ~1000 J/kg of CAPE (below left). Just above the surface at 700 mb, winds will be out of the due south at 40+ kts, resulting in immaculate low-level wind shear. The supercells maybe initially LP and high-based, but as the moisture return continues, and surface temperatures decrease due to anvil shadows and loss of daytime heating during the evening, the tornado threat will increase dramatically. Shown below is the WRF run from Thursday morning for Saturday evening (CAPE and 850 mb flow).
Our target area right now is the extreme western TX Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, from Hobbs to Clovis. Surface winds will be strong out of the southeast (below right), and dewpoints will be in the low to mid-50s, yielding ~1000 J/kg of CAPE (below left). Just above the surface at 700 mb, winds will be out of the due south at 40+ kts, resulting in immaculate low-level wind shear. The supercells maybe initially LP and high-based, but as the moisture return continues, and surface temperatures decrease due to anvil shadows and loss of daytime heating during the evening, the tornado threat will increase dramatically. Shown below is the WRF run from Thursday morning for Saturday evening (CAPE and 850 mb flow).
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What are your thoughts about the outlook beyond Saturday? Is this going to stall out or fizzle out?
It looks like a large-scale mean trough will prevail over the Western U.S. for at least a few days, likely longer, with smaller scale troughs ejecting eastward into the Plains with a period of 1-2 days. Sunday could be interesting in the Plains with some moisture as this particular shortwave ejects, and Tuesday looks interesting as well.
Is it possible that the tornadoes or severe thunderstorms to get in Chicago. I wnat to see some thunderstorms but not really tornadoes in my area.
Well I hope you find yourselves some good video opportunities this weekend. I will be spending it celebrating my 29th birthday. I'm starting to think about taking a trip storm chasing for maybe a week or something.
It appears that the chances are very minimal if not zero for Chicago to experience severe weather. There are some rain chances mid-week with the possibility of thunder, but at this time, it looks like everything will be very non-severe at least through the end of april. The big season in Chicago for severe weather is in mid-late summer through fall.
Reed, Yes I agree the anvil shadows are going to save this event. I really excited about the possibility for some more New Mexico tornado action. Tornadoes seen in February, September, October and March. State with the most tornadoes seen: New Mexico! The usuall storm chaser stats.
Yeah, april has been so incredibly lame here in indiana and even illinois. I want to go chasing before school is done in early may, but from the looks of it, it might not happen! Hopefully you will see some cool weather down there in texas, i'm itching to see some new tornado vidoes.
Hey reed what does the weather look like for severe weather in St.Louis this weekend
And what about D/FW?
Ok, These past 2 weeks were weird.
2 Weeks ago = 71F and sunny
The next day = 38 and Snow
1 Week later = 78F
Last Friday = High Risk and Tornadoes in the metroplex (Bust high risk still through)
Last Saturday = 45F and Windy = Me getting Strep
Last Tuesday = Cloudy all day, 59 = Tornado Again...
Now we have another good chance it appers this upcoming week.
BRING IT ON!
David I totally agree. That's Texas's weather for you. So how is next week lookin for us?
Good news. BRING IT ON!
Here in seattle we have had a little unstable air in the area for the last few days. Today I broke out the camera and made a quick video of some small cumulous clouds in the area. Take a look if you like.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEfoWyJkUBg
good luck with the upcoming chase.
What is that car doing?! Reed and Joel's déjà vu chase:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUklTvNHGYk
just kiddn ;)
thats funny cors- at first I actually thought i was having a daja vu. I was like wait, havent I heard that audio before!
hahaha.
to anyone wondering, my video i mentioned earlier should be working later - I just uploaded it.
yea i was waiting for it :P but ur other vids are great!