News DetailTORNADO OUTBREAK possible in Northern/Central TX Friday!
Posted At: April 12, 2007 @ 10:10 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The Thursday night model runs look incredible for tornadoes in northern and central Texas tomorrow (Friday), especially along and south of a W-E oriented warm front that is forecast to stretch through the DFW Metroplex at 7 pm Friday. Shown below is the simulated radar reflectivity for 7 pm tomorrow from the 4 km WRF.
The high-resolution experimental WRF is showing a double dryline structure, with surface winds backed to a southeasterly direction along and east of the I-35 corridor. This model has been consistently too far east with storm initiation, so the eastern dryline will likely be just west of the DFW Metroplex most of the afternoon. Our target is the intersection of this eastern dryline and the warm front, where low-level shear will be greatly enhanced. Shown below are the forecast CAPE (left) and 0-1 km helicity (right) for 7 pm Friday:
The yellow shading in the left image indicates CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg, and the green coloring in the right image indicates 0-1km helicity values of 150+ m2/s2, more than sufficient for strong tornadoes. Note the rapid increase in helicity values along and just north of the warm front stretching along I-20 through the DFW Metroplex. The warm front can also be clearly seen in the WRF forecast dewpoint map shown below:
Since 300 mb flow will mainly be out of the WSW over this region, a right-moving supercell could easily move along the WSW-ENE oriented warm front, and thus will exist in a very strongly sheared environment. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will prevail in the warm sector, giving rise to low cloud bases and moderate-strong instability.
Based on the most recent model runs, we would not be surprised at all if a few strong, large tornadoes occur over this area along and near the warm front, and possibly even south into the warm sector along the dryline. Stay tuned for more updates...we'll have the tracker up and running tomorrow morning!
The high-resolution experimental WRF is showing a double dryline structure, with surface winds backed to a southeasterly direction along and east of the I-35 corridor. This model has been consistently too far east with storm initiation, so the eastern dryline will likely be just west of the DFW Metroplex most of the afternoon. Our target is the intersection of this eastern dryline and the warm front, where low-level shear will be greatly enhanced. Shown below are the forecast CAPE (left) and 0-1 km helicity (right) for 7 pm Friday:
The yellow shading in the left image indicates CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg, and the green coloring in the right image indicates 0-1km helicity values of 150+ m2/s2, more than sufficient for strong tornadoes. Note the rapid increase in helicity values along and just north of the warm front stretching along I-20 through the DFW Metroplex. The warm front can also be clearly seen in the WRF forecast dewpoint map shown below:
Since 300 mb flow will mainly be out of the WSW over this region, a right-moving supercell could easily move along the WSW-ENE oriented warm front, and thus will exist in a very strongly sheared environment. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will prevail in the warm sector, giving rise to low cloud bases and moderate-strong instability.
Based on the most recent model runs, we would not be surprised at all if a few strong, large tornadoes occur over this area along and near the warm front, and possibly even south into the warm sector along the dryline. Stay tuned for more updates...we'll have the tracker up and running tomorrow morning!
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Won't be able to chase this event, but looks like an awesome setup!!! Goodluck guys, and bring home a monster!!!! WE GOTTA GET THIS THING!
OMG its happening! (dont be suprised to get awaken by some thunder tonight Reed ;)
if i didnt know any better i think u guys were already chasing looking at ur tracker and all :P btw that supercell is looking like its gonna hook Norman..AAAAAAAAAAAA
I have a bad feeling that something very bad may happen in the metroplex today. We shall see. Good luck Reed!
Anyone know how far south tornadoes are possible/likely?
Wow, definately looks like some action is somewhat going already, though the major action will be later today/tonight.
Good luck and be careful!
Wow, I wish I could be there. Unfortunately I'm only fourteen, and my parents wouldn't let me within five miles of a severe storm if they could help it ;)
Though I am thinking of going chasing in a few years.
I'll be on the Gulf today thinking about the moisture being pumped up into the system!
I expect domination from the team here!
Good luck, have fun!
I could see tornadic storms firing all along the dryline even down as far south as Austin. The high res WRF even fires a storm over Del Rio.
The SPC could go high risk on this one at 11:30...we're in DFW right now heading west to our initial target of Mineral Wells...although we'll likely head west from there. Since the storms will be moving at 50 we definitely want to stay east them. Everyone in DFW stay tuned...this could be a dangerous situation.
Hey Reed got the email ill be out as well ill track form fort worth east from there if you guys see crazy things blowing up gimme a call and ill find you guys lol im going to stay just south of fort worth starting arond benbrook or so i wont have a laptop with me so its gunna get crazy but i got my weather raidos and storm spotter channels locked in with my cam fully charged lol. and yes this could be very bad tonight lets just hope every 1 stays safe here int he dfw area.
Hey Reed do you know any good website that i could download some good storm chasing radars and stuff like that
thanks and good luck today
Hey J-Man I use StormLab cost me 160 bucks but you can do a trial its a really good radar program and coems in handy heres the site.
http://www.interwarn.com/download.html
Tornado Warning SW of Wichita Falls!
OMG it's a Monster supercell!
waaaa Reed you are so close..INCREDIBLE!
I know. They are like directly in the center of the storm.
thats definently a tornado, the hook is so prominent. I hope no one gets hurt because it going directly over that town - Saymour
anyone know if there are live tv/radar news/weather casts online in the area?
just looking at the new MD from the spc,
PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z FOR MUCH OF NCNTRL/CNTRL TX.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK.
Guys, Im in Duncanville, TX. About 15 miles south of Dallas. Yes, we have just been upgraded to a HIGH Risk, and believe it or not, the tornado sirens (the ones that talk) are now going off saying dangerous weather tonight, and info about that. Right now its overcast with winds around 30 MPH shifting from South to North and South and back again. This is a VERY DANGEROUS situation for the Metroplex, and THe speedway should be interesting. I think we will have a VERY DAMAGING Tornado tonight, it ust depends where...
i think that's what you call punching the core! whoa!
lets hope they don't ruin their vehicle on the first storm of the day! :-O
Oh yeah, and I forgot to say, who here bets they're having an argument about whether they're too close or not!? :D
Looks nasty in Texas today. Hope you guys stay safe and bring back some good footage but not too good.
Right now it looks like they're situated between the inflow and the hook. What else can a person say?! I know I'd say more than AAAAAAAAA right now! 8-O
wahahaha Heidi you so right lol ;)
Well NWS now says the DFW Area May take the brunt of the tornadoes was reading 30% chance for tornadoes ranging fro, F-2's to F-5's so every one stay safe! its going to get worse and Reed Let me know when you make your way back here and we are going to tag along with you guys just give me a call my dadworks for the City of DeSoto as A Police Officer hey alreay have all of them on emergency call stand by so nws told them all to be ready cause it will get nasty.
DFW now under a Tornado Watch and they said they are watching us close! we are in for the worse every 1 keep a look out.
does anyone know a link for live streaming video from one of the dallas area TV stations? Usually the major stations have a thing like that which they do during severe mode.
Guys, I can honestly say Im getting scard now. This is WAY WORSE then March 28, 2000. I was 3/4 mile from the F3 tornado in arlington.
Im honestly getting scard. Skies are clearing in Dallas. Im thinking the "Day after tommorow F5 DFW Diaster" on TWC. Guys, I will keep you update. And Gene, Im in duncanville, im sure u know where that is. Right next to Desoto.
Ai Looks like Wichita Falls is gettin hit.. :(
Ive found one so far Heidi. WFAA.com
NWS Report (Impotant!)
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 325 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF SHERMAN
TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 133...WW 134...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NORTH TX. THESE STORMS
WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DFW METRO AREA THIS
EVENING...WHILE OTHER MORE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE REGION. VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
im using this but maybe u allready know it Heidi:
http://www.koco.com/video/4071149/index.html
AND
http://kxas.weatherplus.com/wxpluslivevideo/9731843/detail.html
live radio - some severe weather updates once in a while
http://bobradio.fm/
thanks everyone. I'm adding them to my favorites. I hope we hear something out of Reed or Joel soon. making me kind of nervous...
The Metroplex should be under the (serious) gun from 6pm onwards. DFW airport is already diverting flights as of 4pm, and the rain has not even yet begun.
Meanwhile, the Texas Motor Speedway is already flooded.....with beer, that is. Should make for an interesting evening.
wes
dallas
Hi everyone,
I've been watching this storm system really closely in between classes. I am still learning, but I do have a question.
Is that a tornado at the hook line on the radar images to the NNW of Wichita Falls just fixing to enter Petrolia?
Im sure they re OK Heidi. I ve seen them loose connection often in chases there are just huge data voids out there also the atmospheric conditions make radio comunications hard
Nate when you see what they call a hook echo.. it means the storm is rotation and is probaly spawning a tornado. hooks are very serious the when you see that it means if you in the path take cover remember tonadoes normally spawn on the SW cornor of the storms look for signs most of the time yo will be informed before you find out.NWS and every one else is on HIGH ALERT so they are watching it as close as they can there was a site ill find it for you and it will explain every thing to you that you want to know and what to look for.
Heres the link for ya Nate
http://www.spotterguides.us/
I found this also
http://kxas.weatherplus.com/wxplocal/index.html
I don't think anyone was really expecting these storms to become linear at this point, right? That should help ease the tension on the whole DFW issue, at this point anyhow.
Tornado Warning for Palo Pinto County
Second Tornado TouchDown!
I see you guys on the live storm gps tracking close to a supercell @ Dallas. Hope u have some awsome footage and that Dallas is save ofcourse :-)
I am monitoring this situation from the UK and its......23:18 BST (2218 utc) and things'll probably go bang long after i've gonna bed...WHAT site r u monitoring CORS?
a couple... there are some adresses on this page but mostly i follow:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=fws&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
btw looks like the line is breaking up!
oh ye and the tracker ofcourse :P
anybody spot any rotation on those break away cells?
I use this to check for rotation. It's not terrific but it is free and when there's a sure thing, you'll know it.
http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadialVelocity&prodnav=none
It seems like the line has slowed down a lot in addition to breaking up some, as Cors said. The southernmost storms are the ones I think are the ones to watch, as is usually the case.
So far only one comfirmed tornado report according to SPC
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
0-1km shear on the order of 300 M2/S2 over entire north central TX area. Initial storms more linear than I expected, hence only SevereTstorm warnings thus far. With windfields/shear increasing thru the late evening, expect that current line will become bowed/broken with discrete supercells either embedded within the line or moving off the line. Tornado threat to increase shortly thereafter.
Dallas area still under the gun bigtime!!
Cors,
Judging by radar on television, no rotation has been indicated by radar on those breakaways...for now. Think that will change?
www.myfoxdfw.com
oh my Reed was exactly on the mark they are fireing all up to Del Rio :P
Tornado Warning for Wise tornado heading right at the speedway
Hello All!!
Hope everyone is safe. I am in Cedar Hill, TX right next to Duncanville and Desoto South of Dallas. The weather here is rather strange sunshine right now and windy. Dark clouds to the south and west. Kind of ominous (?spelling). Very erie. Will keep you posted for those outside of texas. I've got the camera ready. Keep us posted Gene. :) NBC5i.com is the local news with nexrad Heidi.
Sirens activated at Texas Motor Speedway!
FORT WORTH IN PATH OF ROTATION! I REPEAT SIRENS ARE SOUNDING IN ALL TARRENT COUNTY.
LIVE FEED WWW.WFAA.COM
WWW.NBC5I.COM
WWW.MYFOXDFW.COM
Tornado Sirens Sounding in Tarrent County!
Dean, since your watching. Please let us (just south of dallas) know if you see anything on radar near or coming close to us. Tks.
Great links guys. Looking at the dalas page as mentioned by wes...Great viewing online & superb coverage
Well we missed the Seymore tornado by about 5 minutes...we were coming at it from the south, and saw a huge lowering cross the road in front of us and then it became wrapped in rain...we then saw tree damage that looked like a tornado...I heard it was a weak wedge, about 1/2 mile wide!!! We had to get gas in Throckmorton, or we would have seen the tornado for sure!!
Then we saw the BRIEF spinup in Palo Pinto county northwest of Ft worth...it had rotation above it, and rapidly rotating rain curtains below. If that Seymore cell hadn't crossed the warm front we'd still be on the tornado. We saw windshields broken out in Seymore with 2 inch hail all over the ground and fog...amazing sight.
It looks like everything is getting undercut by the cold front, which is MUCH stronger than forecast by the models...it even caught up to the dryline...it looks like this event is basically over DFW as far as strong tornadoes are concerned...just strong winds, hail, and maybe a brief, non-damaging spinup.
I'll post some pictures when we get back...IF WE WOULD HAVE LEFT 10 MINUTES EARLIER WE WOULD HAVE SEEN IT!! al;kdsjfa;lskjdf
Everyone in DFW stay safe...but it looks like the worst case scenario definitely didn't materialize...which is a good thing.
listen to this:
http://www.wbap.com/article.asp?id=133706
Tornado Warning tornado right over Forth Worth and its Rain Wrapped!
Just saw that on TV Gene. They said spotters in Ft. Worth are reporting a rain wrapped tornado, west Ft. Worth.
earlier they inturuped the program for a while due to a tornado warning, it was pretty exciting - it stoped now. might come back up, keep listning!.
WOW! Looks like the cell is trying to propagate southeastward off the front...things could get dangerous...I still think it's being undercut by the front though.
Reed they say the hook is in the Haltom City area and tracking toward Bedford/Hurst area. The radar looks right.
Reed you want hail head to fort worth 3inch + hail
My roomate was on that storm in ft worth and he said it still appeared outflow dominant...but it's propagating hard southeast trying to stay along the front...It's probably fighting a losing battle...but if you live in Dallas or between Ft worth and dallas I would take cover immediately if you haven't already...better safe than sorry.
they are going to issue a tornado warnning -
http://www.wbap.com/article.asp?id=133706
Tornado Warnign for Dallas!
Sirens blaring in Dallas
WOW..that cell is actually really wrapping up...moving ESE now which is favorable for large tornadoes.
heading straight for downtown...take cover immediately
Wow, this so much like that It Could Happen Tomorrow episode, scary.
www.NBC5i.com is running live video on the internet of the storm right now.
anything zoomable in terms of radar wld be appreciated!
Reed,
I'm just north of Downtown Dallas..maybe a fourth of a mile-there is some rotation heading this way...no winds now as of yet...any info?
Just saw a new tornado warning issued for Hamiliton County!
You guys look like you are having fun!
I live in Austin and they extended the tornado watch to our viewing area!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
Quarter sized hail right outside my window!
My mother-in-law just called me asking what was going on with the weather, she is driving through FORT WORTH right now!! They were on their way to Dallas to go back to their hotel and I said, "DON'T GO, THEY HAVE A TORNADO ON THE GROUND!" They were about 10 minutes away... and didn't even know. :-) That's why it's good to have weather junkie daughter in law!!!
I see you guys are right there get some good video for us!!!
Check this out:
http://kxas.weatherplus.com/wxpluslivevideo/9731843/detail.html
This site was linked further up, but the storm has just got withen viewing distance of their TV station. So the live coverage of the storm can be seen there.
Looks nasty
If you're on the north side of Dallas, you're likely just seeing rotation along the gust front...the straightline winds can still be damaging.
There is a picture of a damaged roof of a supermarket on wfaa.com...It could be straightline damage though...still no pictures of the tornado.
There's probably a tornado about to touch down on the east side of Dallas...the storm is really wrapping up...it's probably concealed by rain. This is a very ugly situation.
wooo that looked like a wedge!
ta for the vid links n so on guys. I'm off to bed and dad needs net!
l8ers n stay safe!
Thanks Reed. Quiet in Dallas proper now...but it was looking nasty there for a minute...literally, a minute. Lost power for an hour and a half, probably knocked out by the straightlines that you mentioned.
that tornado went right pass me i was sooo scared i was watching the weather the whole time MAN!!!! it said a tornado was going to hit Dallas Tx soo i prayed about 50 times i heard that that thing is still going!!!! they said that its going till 9:00 but i think its going to be longer. and can you tell me what to do when a tornado is coming other than videotaping it i meant like for protection because there was never a tornado in dallas that i saw so can you tell me please some people say that you get in a bathtub and cover yourself with a matress does that really work? or do i go inside a closet and cover my head? which one protects you more and you have a lot of nerves to go and catch a tornado i would have just ran top speed i know i know im a chicken so just e-mail me amd tell me ok thanks for reading
Hi Janis,
Glad to hear you're okay.
The best protection is to be underground...so if you know anyone with a tornado shelter, and conditions look favorable for tornadoes, I would stay close to the shelter.
The next best option is the bathtub covered with a mattress, and next would probably be the closet and cover your head.
If you're not anywhere close to a shelter, I would find the nearest ditch, lie flat and cover your head.
This is all assuming you don't have time to drive away from it...but this is not recommended for someone who does not understand storm structure...
The Dallas tornado did not appear to be violent...so it looks like the damage will be relatively minimal...at least compared to what it could have been if the storms were more discrete.
Stay tuned to the website for future updates!
Replay todays Chase on Youtube!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8rCCL_4_qU