News DetailINSANE weather in the central U.S. this week!
Posted At: April 11, 2007 @ 12:01 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
VERY unusual weather will be occurring over the central/southern U.S. this week, with heavy snow now falling over the Great Lakes region, a tornado watch for Alabama today (Wednesday), tornadoes likely in eastern TX on Friday, and a blizzard possible in KS/northern OK on Friday-Saturday.
Shown below is the WRF forecast surface map (left) and 12 hr accumulated precip from 00z Friday to 12z Saturday morning (right). Note the 540 line (blue dotted) in the left image is surging south through the Central Plains. This line typically denotes the surface freezing line, and north of this line snow will be the predominant precipitation type. The 540 line will surge south through Oklahoma into Texas by Saturday morning, with the current model runs predicting snow accumulations as far south as Oklahoma. Meanwhile, severe weather will be likely in the warm sector in east TX on Friday afternoon, with the chance for tornadoes. We will definitely be chasing in the warm sector on Friday, so stay tuned for more updates!
Shown below is the WRF forecast surface map (left) and 12 hr accumulated precip from 00z Friday to 12z Saturday morning (right). Note the 540 line (blue dotted) in the left image is surging south through the Central Plains. This line typically denotes the surface freezing line, and north of this line snow will be the predominant precipitation type. The 540 line will surge south through Oklahoma into Texas by Saturday morning, with the current model runs predicting snow accumulations as far south as Oklahoma. Meanwhile, severe weather will be likely in the warm sector in east TX on Friday afternoon, with the chance for tornadoes. We will definitely be chasing in the warm sector on Friday, so stay tuned for more updates!
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Wooohooo the chase is on!
Tornado Warning close to Birmingham Alabama! looks like the real thing :P
This storms are just starting to spin! Went from no, to 3 TVS's and TOR warnings in 10 minutes. Cell heading toward BHM getting hook, still SVR Warned.
Live coverage on www.abc3340.com
4 TORNADO WARNINGS NOW
OUTBREAK!!! Hold the line! :P
ITS GOING! We got cells firing on dryline discreatly. ABC33/40 just showed cam from Tusalosa (sorry, spelling isnt that good) and its popping like nuts.
LETS GET THE PARTY STARTED. Just like yesterday.
BIRMINHAM AREA NOW TORNADO WARNED. TUSCALLOSA CELL NOW TORNADO WARNED! LETS PARTY. LIVE COVERAGE on ABC33/40 webcast
The cell just west of Montgomery, AL has a very strong couplet...and 70+ dbz! I wouldn't be surprised if that cell has a tornado on the ground. People in Montgomery should definitely be watching this cell. Anyone chasing these today??
Reed, thanks for pointing out that cell. I am now attempting to locate live webcasts for Montgumery, it looks very intereresting.
looks like multiple cells that are pretty strong, i would love to see some pictures of what is happening in that area.
According to wunderground.com there is a tornado signature currently occuring west of montgomerie alabama! possible tornado on the ground maybee?
I wish i could be there right now I'm 13 and am dead serious to chase.
We really need to stop these cold fronts that are getting to the gulf. Thursday would be a massive day with moisture... very dissapointing. Alabama seems to be having some fun today.
News from montgomery
Autauga County and Elmore County are currently under a tornado warning. At 4:35 p.m. there were reports of quarter-size hail in parts of Autauga County, including the area at Interstate 65 and Alabama 14.
Check back for further updates.
OK what the hell....Tornado warning on a cell to the county northwest of Indianapolis, with a line of sever storms to be hitting the area within the hour....this is ridiculous! WHY TONIGHT???? I HAVE TO BE AT WORK RIGHT NOW! not fair. Reed please get cool footage for me this week =(
Im getting 3 TVS's right now about 10 miles east of Motgomery, This storm is heading right toward the radar site. All TVS's have sheer above 100. 1. 103, 2 145, and 3, well, 161 MXSHEER 161
MXSHEER up to 174 and 194 :O
IM gettin hammered over here bout 40 miles west of milwaukee. HAMMER'D WITH SNOW!!! haha heres a picture I took outside my house (from my bedroom window)
http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q23/BJH088/wethererrrrr.jpg
good luck on chaseing tornadoes this week reed, looks like their could be some action!
Looks like Florida is getting some right now...maybe Orlando who knows :P
Reed looks like the DFW area has the tornado risk for Friday so there ya go sounds liek we get all the fun this week lol
My family lives in Grand Rapids, MI and my sister said they've gotten 6 inches of snow already today...looks like even more in Milwaukee!
We're definitely targeting TX along and east of I-35...We'll see what the model runs show tomorrow.
It really is too bad we don't have moisture for tomorrow in West TX....it would be HUGE.
5 reports in AL so far I see...does anyone have pictures of the storms out there??
Hey, I heard from the news here that there was a funnel cloud spotted with a storm near Maryville, Tn but nothing much happened of it. Good luck in Texas
Big time thunderstorms rolled through Central Ohio with temps reaching 58 for our high at nearly 11pm. Wind to about 50mph and small hail around pea size at my location in Fairfield County, hail and a possible tornado occured in neighboring Franklin, and Pickaway counties as well. The worst of it is, snow if forecasted for Saturday. I have family in Alabama but have not spoken with them yet, they live in Jefferson County where some damage from a possible tornado occured.
too bad i'll be down in San Antonio on Friday, I live in Plano and I wouldn't havin a little fun
Good Morning, I woke up this morning to an interesting NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook for DFW.
My little sister is going to be out at camp, wouldnt it figure lol
"INDICATIONS ARE THAT A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION MAY BE SETTING
UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THOSE AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING VERY LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM
FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CURVATURE OF THE
WIND FIELDS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED...DISCREET SUPERCELL STORMS...
POSSIBLY TORNADIC...WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WELL AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING DRY-LINE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY OVER THIS AREA AS WELL."
OMIGOSH. On our Michigan Weather site we posted some hilarious pictures last night.
Including one taken in a snow storm of a sign that says, "Think Spring". WE WISH.
Yesterday was down to 1/8th mile visability in some spots, and we had snow, freezing rain, and then rain on top of it all. MICHIGAN IS NO GOOD! Doesn't it know what season it's supposed to be?
On top of it all, we are having a required "disaster training" this weekend with ALL of the West Michigan resources (haz mat, fire, parameds, emergency comms, etc.) WE ARE GOING TO FREEZE OUR WET NAY-NAYS OFF!! Wish us luck! I'll post details Sunday, after I defrost.
Looks as though we have one of the biggest Nor'easters in the last 30 years developing off the coast this weekend. The rapid cyclogenesis could bring pressures as low as 975mb off the east coast by Monday Morning. I'm packing up my cameras and heading east tonight to cover this storm along the Virginia Coastline as it develops.
Check out this model map, amazing. What is incredible is that it may sit there for over 48 hours. New Jersey and Long Island could take a major lashing.
http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a357/FRED1970/gfs_ten_102m.gif
SCM
For the price of shipping, I'll pack some snow for you in dry-ice and send it to ya if you really want some!!!!! :-)
well the last weather report I saw they say these storms will blow up west of fort worth and move threw they are saying the only reason we wont have a huge tornado break out is there isnt enough insability or else it would get really bad but I bet we will see a few tornadoes here in the DFW area. SO ill be ready lol and if i pass you reed ill wave haha.
Hey SCM...if you get any pictures please let me know...I'd love to post them on the blog here with appropriate credit.
Definitely looks like a MASSIVE Nor'easter...we plan on documenting some nor'easters from Nova Scotia next year.
Last night's model run looked very favorable for tornadoes in central TX tomorrow. This morning doesn't look quite as good as last night, with the low-level jet shifted slightly east of the instability axis. I'm still thinking there will be sufficient low-level shear near the dryline in central TX, and the WRF is forecasting 2000-3000 CAPE. The picture will be much more clear with tonight's model run.
A tornado near Bagley, AL produced EF-1 damage yesterday.
Looks like there will be two areas of interest tomorrow (Friday).
#1 - East texas. This mornings wrf doesn't look as ideal as last nights model run and the gfs seems to match up pretty well with the wrf. Looks like storms should fire well east of the dryline in an uncapped airmass. Hodographs aren't great along the dryline but become better farther east. My two biggest concerns with target #1 are supercells being embedded in a larger area of precip and not having an ideal road network with storms moving 45 mph +.
#2 Southwest Oklahoma - Looks potentially like an excellent cold core setup. 0-3 capes around 300 j/kg (total cape around 1500 j/kg) and 0-1 km shear vectors of 30-35 knots along the occluded front could make for some nice mini-sups with good tornado potential. Storms will be fast movers but the terrain and road network are good.
I'll be eagerly awaiting tonights model runs to see if things change but right now looks like Reed and I will have a decision to make this evening.
well when the report comes out we will know huh lol damn i cant wait to see what it says. last nigth they shows High ammiunt of shear over the dfw area with no cap over us they say a few tornados big big hail very high winds they just showed the same thing on the news at noon so i guess we will see when it hits i made sure i out all my batteries ont he changer 2night lol.
I'll definitely share any photos or video with you guys. I just read this discussion from the NYC NOAA office. Cat 2 Hurricane Force winds (80kts) are possible along the coast. Just amazing! Check this out.
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. IT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN THE SHORT TERM AND THEN TRACK EAST AND TRY TO PHASE WITH A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND - SORT OF A CLASSIC PATTERN FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A 2 TO 3 SIGMA ANOMALY IN THE 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 WIND FIELDS DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SUBJECTIVELY APPEARS SOUTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS RESULTS FOR A MORE PROLONGED NORTHEAST COMPONENT FOR OUR REGION...WHICH IS NOT GOOD.
WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW HPC/S GUIDANCE ON THIS. PLEASE SEE HPC/S EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION (PMDEPD).
THE BOTTOM LINE: A SIGNIFICANT...POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM...FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT WE ARE ENTERING A SPRING TIDE SITUATION WITH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MONDAY NIGHT NEEDING ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET OF SURGE TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WITH A SLOW MOVING STORM...TIDAL PILING COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION NOT SEEN IN MANY YEARS.
12Z GFS RUN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS! LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ISLAND IS NEAR 80 KNOTS. WHILE IT/S VERY EARLY AND THINGS WILL CHANGE...WE NEED TO BE VIGILANT ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AND START PLANNING. WE DO NOT WANT TO SAY THAT THE SKY IS FALLING...BUT THERE POTENTIAL HERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT EVENT DUE TO THE SPRING TIDES...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS
SCM
OMG!!! Insane! GLOBAL WARMING
Reed, it looks like you need to step up your Alabama weather coverage.
re: Reed & Joel's decision to be made...
- I thought Reed proclaimed he was through with cold-core setups after Kansas this year! :D
....."It Could Happen Tomorrow".....
Not sure how much you trust the EMCWF, but it places the surface low/triple point like east of childress at 0z. And the 850 winds are 30-40kts out of the SE. Could be further west than being currently forecasted. Or i'm hoping anyway.
Whoops 850 winds not as stated above.... looking at the wrong time.
cold-core setups are that low's coming from the north? just wondering :P
I think you should do the cold core setup as it sounds more exciting. I think mini supercells are fun to watch - was the Manchester tornado you chased a "cold core setup" because it seemed like a pretty small supercell and that tornado was awesome.
Cold core setups typically occur under the cold 500 mb vorticity maximum, WNW of the surface low and the warm sector to the east and south. The best location for tornadoes is along an occluded boundary, usually extending WNW of the triple point (intersection of the dryline, warm front, and cold front. Since very cold air is located in the vicinity of the upper low, very minimal moisture is sufficient for tornadoes. The winds are backed to a more easterly direction just to the north of the occluded boundary, enhancing the low-level shear there. Cold core storms are usually low-topped, mini-supercells.
The Manchester tornado was not a cold-core event...it was actually supercell just north of a warm front. CAPEs were around 5000 J/kg with dewpoints in the 70s. Since it just north of the warm front, winds were very light and from an ENE direction, enhancing the low-level shear bigtime.
It's calm today. We have a saying for that here in the Netherlands, silence before the storm. I hope you guys shoot some awsome footage this weekend, I wish u all best of luck.
Thanks for the info Reed. I'll try to make sense of it all as this stuff kind of confuses me - i have yet to understand all the terms. I find this stuff very interesting though. I am just fascinated how or atmosphere acts under certain conditions. The Manchester event sounded like a perfect event - CAPE all the way up to around 5000j/kg -I don't think i have ever seen so high in a weather report. Hope you guys get lucky with the upcoming storms tomorrow.
Could someone link me to a sort of weather wiki? someplace where I could better learn the definitions of terms like CAPE, shear vectors and what not...I would appreciate it!
According to WFAA's Metrologist (Soon to be Chief) this event tommorow is the biggest North Texas has seen in 2 springs. He said very firmly, If you dont have a weather alarm, get one. If you have one. Put new batterys in it, because your going to need it.
I am probley going to be skipping school, or leaving half day to go chasing for my first time. Ill probley be staying in the metro around wireless around fastfood resterant.
If anyone has any clues, please share for my first time.
PS, Im not getting near hail cores, Im going in my dads convertable :O
Here's a link for the NOAA weather terms glossary. It's pretty complete & I've found it to be very uesful.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php#Glossary
AH! I'm so mad i'll be out of dfw tomorrow by the time the storms roll around! I would really love to go through another one of those Texas storms, but it looks like it won't be tomorrow for me. Good luck with y'all though.
THX for the info guys...Looks like things are already starting up south of Amarillo TX
Yes sir tomorrow defintely should be an insane day in the midwest...hopefully plano and surrounding area wont get hit too bad...i have a couple friends in that area...mikey yes that def. would be a insane noreaster here...i live about 15 mins outside of atlantic city nj and im also with an area volunteer fire company...so i like to keep up on the weather around here....could be a VERY busy couple of days...theyre not saying a whole lot about to on Mount Holly NWS website...just rain for pretty much 3 days straight starting sat. afternoon...anything else keep me updated plz...much appreciated
http://www.kvii.com/weather/radar.aspx?type=sky_cam
Amarillo TX weather cam
FROM THE NWS.
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN A FAIRLY NARROW ZONE NEAR THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY
UPON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL TURNING
BELOW 850 MB SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BECOME ENHANCED WITH RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK
EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP APPEARS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE MARCH 28, 2000 FORT WORTH TX TORNADO EVENT ONLY THIS
SYSTEM AND THE WIND FIELDS FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER. ALSO...THE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL JET IS MORE CYCLONICALLY CURVED AND THE GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT AREA MAY BE SHIFTED SEWD COMPARED TO MARCH 28, 2000.
A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA WITH
LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN NCNTRL TX DUE TO
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE. HOW FAR SOUTH THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST STILL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT
COVERAGE ACROSS ECNTRL TX. AS A LARGE MCS DEVELOPS FRIDAY
EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN
AR AND LA WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL
MS.