News DetailMajor Tornado Outbreak Likely Today!
Posted At: March 27, 2007 @ 11:53 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Based on the most recent model runs, a significant tornado outbreak appears likely from southwest Nebraska through northwest TX. Low-level shear and CAPE values are extreme across the entire region, and the predominant storm mode will likely be supercells given that storm motions are largely deviant from the dryline. Shown below is the 4 km WRF forecast simulated radar for tomorrow evening.
As seen above, the WRF forecasts widespread supercellular convection from northwest NE southward through TX. Based on recent model guidance, our target area for tomorrow is the east-central to northeast TX Panhandle, where low-level shear values and instability will be maximized. The models have also been consistently veering the upper-level flow, which will help the storms move off the dryline and prevent cell merges. This will increase the threat for long-track, violent tornadoes from southwest KS to northwest TX. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk from southwest NE through TX for Wednesday, with a relatively large risk for strong tornadoes. TornadoVideos.net storm chasers will of course be chasing this event...so stay tuned for further updates and more extreme footage.
As seen above, the WRF forecasts widespread supercellular convection from northwest NE southward through TX. Based on recent model guidance, our target area for tomorrow is the east-central to northeast TX Panhandle, where low-level shear values and instability will be maximized. The models have also been consistently veering the upper-level flow, which will help the storms move off the dryline and prevent cell merges. This will increase the threat for long-track, violent tornadoes from southwest KS to northwest TX. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk from southwest NE through TX for Wednesday, with a relatively large risk for strong tornadoes. TornadoVideos.net storm chasers will of course be chasing this event...so stay tuned for further updates and more extreme footage.
Calendar
Categories
i would definitely watch a possible breakout east of I-27 from amarillo to lubbock. early to mid afternoon could be a set up for some volatile weather. in sw kansas the shear is already setting up. could be awesome
Good luck from Latvian tornado fan. I wish I was United states now. I saw that CAPE could be 4500 in west Oklahoma !
Good luck and safe chasing, gentlemen! I've been living vicariously through you guys since I discovered this site.
Woohoo! I'm excited about chasin tornadoes on radar. Good luck!
I will be monitoring the storms from the News 5 Weather Center!
Are you guys at all surprised that NWS doesn't have a high-risk area defined (at this moment)? Seems that the ingredients that are present should be cause for another upgrade... And, please, for the sake of your viewers, don't get as close to any enormous wedges as you did to The Storm in South Dakota? I don't want to risk losing bladder control when I see the video, and I assume (okay, HOPE) others would agree! :D
Don't want to jinx anything, but these definitely look like prime storm conditions.. Good luck and don't forget your bike helmets, aha.
We wouldn't be surprised if they issue a high risk today...They might be a little worried about the cirrus shield in place over the Southern Plains...but it definitely has some holes in it. We would at least put out a 15% hatched area for tornadoes.
Hi Reed - hope all is well - your tracker shows you are disconnected!
I'm watchin the radar for Amarillo, TX and the action is already starting to escalate. This is so exciting! I really hope you guys get some awesome footage!
what happened to your tracker? it was working for a little bit, now i cant see anything? You were heading right for some storms! amazing how those storms just poped up and grew.
The tracker should be working now. It was also enhanced to remember your zoom level when it automatically refreshes.
Joe, let me know if you are still having problems, it should be working ok now.
still not working for me. I have two computers and it's not working on both. no map shows anymore. weird!
A tornado vortex just showed up on the radar neaer Amarillo!!! This is so cool...there was like nothing but a bit of rain an hour or so ago and now the storm has built up! This is amazing!!!!
{edit}
ah crap....it just disappeared...LOL this storm is going to be AWESOME! My prayers are for those who are in it's path! :( Hopefully no one gets hurt, but I can't help but be excited about this storm! WHY do I have to live in IDAHO??? LOL
Please email me at jason [at] tornadovideos.net and let me know what browser you are using please. We will go from there.
ok - i opened up firefox and it works on that. not working on internet explorer 7 for some reason. Man those storm grew! I bet your going to get some good fotage.
The tracker is currently not working for me in IE 7 (the map area is just grey) but is working great in Firefox. And then refreshing, the zoom is staying the same, Awesome!
Best of luck on the current chase!
I am looking into the IE 7 issue. Thanks for reporting it, I will post once fixed.
Oooh, juicy:
A LARGE TORNADO IS DEVELOPING 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
The tracker should not work in IE. Sorry....but I had to take off the zoom staying the same on refresh. I will get that back in place when I have time to test it a little more.
Enjoy!!
Ahh, a TVS just appeared in SW Carson County. OOOh, and another as I'm typing this out, in northern Briscoe county. Yikes! What an active day!
Hi Reed - your tracker still goes disconnected at times, but I see you are right in the midst of a big storm. Good luck and stay safe! Keep us posted!!!
national weather service: IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
just a thought - but perhaps this is why their traker is disconnected!
Wow, looks like this time you are lucky there in TX! Hope you get great tornado footage and be careful because it seems quite a few storms are popping up around where I see you all are. Several tornado warnings already according to the NOAA website I am looking at now.
Can't wait to read the details and see any footage! :)
HOLY CRAP! I've spotted 3 TVS and the supercell over the Texas Panhandle and OK panhandle is freakin HUGE! I'm missing all the action here in North Idaho! dammit!
I'm off work, so I won't be able to watch the radars anymore since I only have dial up at home, but I'll check up for updates on the site on my sidekick. GOOD LUCK GUYS!
I just spoke with Reed and they saw an INCREDIBLE tornado. They are on another storm right now!! Footage to come later!
Awesome! Can't wait to see the footage! This is insane.
Yes, I just spoke with Reed and they are in a data hole right now. He is going to try to reconnect ASAP. He said the footage is in HD and is AMAZING!!! Stay tuned!
now it looks like there are tornado warnings sprinkled up as far as Nebraska, this seems like it'll be a wide-spread outbreak...
I was just watching the weather channel and they said 20 tornadoes have been spotted!! Can't wait to see the footage!!
Hi Reed - I gave the kids at school your website to watch tonight and they are emailing me like crazy - they can't wait to see your footage. They love the radar overlay - tracker is working fine now - stay safe - looks like you are right on another one!
Hey just wondering what you guys think the St.Louis area will have in the way of severe Thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday Good luck have fun
WoW this shit looks crazy guys, im following u with the live tracker! (dont get slammed by the hook!:P) hope you get some awesome footage! cant wait to come over there and chase some of these storm too cause we dont really get any big ones over here in Amsterdam Netherlands.
Enjoy!
The storm they are following looks to hit McLean right on - hope there isn't to much damage.
This is coming out of near Goodland, KS -
..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT (815 PM MDT)
FOR NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN AND EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES...
AT 832 PM CDT...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10
MILES SOUTH OF BIRD CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.
SPOTTERS HAVE CONFIRMED A VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO ON THE
GROUND. RESIDENTS OF EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY INCLUDING THE CITY OF
BIRD CITY SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PRESERVE LIFE AND PROPERTY.
I think my dad mentioned that the Weather Channel is trying to cover that as well as another tornado in a nearby storm.
(sorry to spam twice in a row)Wow, if possible, there is a second tornado warning for the county I just posted about above.
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTY...
AT 837 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF BIRD CITY...OR ABOUT 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ST. FRANCIS...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BIRD CITY.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 34.
and then the second one -
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT
* AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ST.
FRANCIS...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY AROUND 910 PM CDT
RURAL NORTHERN CHEYENNE COUNTY AROUND 920 PM CDT
THIS IS A POSSIBLE SECOND TORNADO SEPARATE FROM THE LARGE TORNADO
NEAR BIRD CITY.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 20.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 194 AND 213.
Can't wait to see the footage you had in TX! We had strong storms in KY this morning, but other then dime-size hail, there were no other reports.
yes their is a reported large wedge tornado in nw kansas. just said on weather channel... They were talking live on the phone to a trained weather spotter who said he had to take cover from outflow winds that were in excess of 80mph. Their was a pretty large Hook echo with the super cell too they were showing, I mean it was a clearly distinguished hook echo. Probably just a massive tornado, sweet!!
WOW, as im watching the weather channel Bird City, KS is about to get hit AGAIN with another tornado after getting hit earlier today by a huge wedge tornado with what theyre calling very significant damage...and the tracker has been disconnected ever since i got home at 10 eastern.....be safe out there guys...it definitely looks like its and insane night...hopefully everybody out there can get throught tonight safe...
Is that your footage I keep seeing on the weather channel, Reed?! Stay safe!!
Yes Reed some how has managed to get the footage to some of the networks.....I am sure he will have it posted here as soon as things calm down.
Jay, the one from i think Briscoe, TX sounds like them...dont quote me on that though....its looking really bad out there and doesnt seem like its going to let up even overnite with the daytime heating gone...sometimes im glad i live over here in NJ...