News DetailTornado Outbreak Possible on Wed!
Posted At: March 26, 2007 @ 11:32 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A huge trough is forecast to move into the Western U.S. by Wednesday, inducing a strong low-level jet by Tuesday night over the Great Plains. Deep moisture will be advected northward, and strong low and deep layer shear will develop from TX to NE. The 500 mb WRF forecast for Wed evening is shown below:
A strong dryline will develop over the High Plains on Wednesday, and will initiate storms by mid-afternoon in a highly unstable environment. Right now, our target is northwest KS into western NE, where low-level flow is out of the southeast, and the dryline will have more of a west-east component just north of the "bulge". Here, storm motions will be more normal to the boundary, and a NNE storm motion will still have high helicity values with the southeasterly low-level flow. Shown below is the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, which shows a general agreement with our forecast. This will definitely be a huge severe weather event over a large portion of the Plains. Stay tuned for further updates...we will of course be chasing this event!!
A strong dryline will develop over the High Plains on Wednesday, and will initiate storms by mid-afternoon in a highly unstable environment. Right now, our target is northwest KS into western NE, where low-level flow is out of the southeast, and the dryline will have more of a west-east component just north of the "bulge". Here, storm motions will be more normal to the boundary, and a NNE storm motion will still have high helicity values with the southeasterly low-level flow. Shown below is the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, which shows a general agreement with our forecast. This will definitely be a huge severe weather event over a large portion of the Plains. Stay tuned for further updates...we will of course be chasing this event!!
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cool what about thursday are conditions gonna hold together for some possible tornado action in western wisconsin?? Thats Where im from...
Are this storm going to stay severe as it moves across the great plains, like int st. louis missouri?
Hey guys, I'm all for some action this week, but I have my fantasy baseball draft on Friday, so if you could arrange for the worst of the weather to be out of the Ozarks before, oh, about 7:30PM central time, that would be great. My draft begins at 8:00, so I'd still need like a half-hour to prepare. Oh, and power outages would cause me to frown. ... Now, I'm gonna be really upset with y'all if I wake up Friday morning to a PDS from the weather service, with mid-60's dewpoints and all that. So keep us folks in mind, could ya? Thanks. Appreciate it. :D
Hey guys, looks like a great chase opportunity. Be safe and hopefully you encounter a monster wedge while on the chase.
It looks like Thursday will have more severe wx potential on the Great Plains..but will stay well west of Wisconsin. Friday also has a chance somewhere on the Plains.
The storms will definitely lose their intensity before reach St Louis...In fact, they likely will not reach there at all.
The new morning model runs look like you'll be okay for your draft on Friday!
Any chance of any of these storms reaching Los Angeles? (I mean like um, EVER reaching Los Angeles?)
oh well, I guess I need to move east....
Although we did have a bunch of storm clouds from Arizona blow in the other night...well at least it LOOKED like it was going to rain.
Woohoo! Hopefully you get some awesome footage! I'm addicted to tracking storms and seeing if I can spot a tornado on radar. lol Good luck! Hopefully the tornadoes will stay out of neighborhoods and homes and just look beautiful in an empty field! :)
Good luck and be careful.
Yeah it's definitely fun to watch them on radar! We'll have the GPS tracker going in full force. We're starting to like northwest OK/southwest KS the best now. Instability and shear are maximized, with storm motions still moving off the dryline...which should be slowing down rapidly by the "magic hour"...5 pm. Stay tuned!
tornado outbreak after tornado outbreak. I'm liking this!
Apparently Tornado season might be hitting North Idaho! In my local news paper (I live in Coeur d'Alene, about 15 minutes from the Washington State line, and 20 minutes from Spokane, WA) that we're expected to have more than usual severe thunderstorms this year, over 20 days of thunderstorm action throughout the season. Also, between May and June, there's a possible outbreak of a couple touch downs of Tornadoes. They're very rare here, but they have happened a few times in the past. As awesome as a Tornado would be to see here in North Idaho, it would probably turn out to be a castrophe since this is a pretty good size metropolis (Coeur d'Alene/Spokane). Just thought I'd share the info!
Good luck, I hope it all pans out this time! I just wish the cloud cover that seems it'll be in place all day tomorrow across central and western Nebraska would break up a bit. Just out of curiosity, is that cloud cover part of what is causing you to shift your focus to the NW OK/SW KS areas now?
Good luck tomorrow guys! Will be doing some online storm chasing tomorrow evening. Wish i was out there chasing! No exciting weather here across the pond at the moment.
Thanks for the info Shawna...We've actually thought about chasing the Snake River Valley in southeast Idaho...I've seen several supercell events in that area. The problem is...the SRV is in somewhat of a radar hole.
Josh: We shifted our target south because after examination of the hodographs, we think the low-level shear will also be immense further south...but higher instability will be present. The new model runs are showing 3000+ J/kg CAPE in west OK/KS. We're also thinking the low level jet will rapidly intensify shortly after 7 pm, increasing further the low-level shear!
Stay tuned for more updates!
Hey Reed I wish I could ride along with you guys on a chase, Good luck today looks like some nice supercells are going on in TX.
what is it looking like for thurs.? will kansas or missouri have anything promising?
and if so what parts?