News DetailFriday Severe Wx Forecast Update
Posted At: February 22, 2007 @ 1:07 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The 12z experimental high-resolution WRF does not forecast extensive convection until after 03z Friday night. The 3-hr accumulated precip. forecast for 00-03z and 03-06z are shown below, respectively.
The 00-03z precip forecast above hints at convective initiation around Altus sometime just after 00z, with light, elevated precip over central OK. After 03z, however, all hell breaks loose in central OK.
Still though, the presence of a very weak cap means that any SLIGHT increase in moisture or surface temperature than forecast by the above model would lead to much earlier convective initiation. And the huge low-level wind shear leads to a potentially volatile situation. We'll have to monitor the moisture return very closely...but we're planning on chasing this event regardless. Meanwhile, the SPC issued a moderate risk in their Thursday morning Day 2 Convective Outlook, mentioning the possibility of late afternoon initation in the extreme eastern TX Panhandle.
The 00-03z precip forecast above hints at convective initiation around Altus sometime just after 00z, with light, elevated precip over central OK. After 03z, however, all hell breaks loose in central OK.
Still though, the presence of a very weak cap means that any SLIGHT increase in moisture or surface temperature than forecast by the above model would lead to much earlier convective initiation. And the huge low-level wind shear leads to a potentially volatile situation. We'll have to monitor the moisture return very closely...but we're planning on chasing this event regardless. Meanwhile, the SPC issued a moderate risk in their Thursday morning Day 2 Convective Outlook, mentioning the possibility of late afternoon initation in the extreme eastern TX Panhandle.
Calendar
Categories
I am hoping the model runs tonight or tomorrow mourning can help me decide on a final target area. Both Altus and Gage have very favorable forecast soundings. Both have been having forecasted SWEAT values over 500 for a few days now along with all the other indicies very favorable for storms. Regarless of location its gonna be a rough night over OK. With the cap completely eroded, decent cape and the upper level support, I do believe there will be atleast an hour of action before sunset.