News DetailSPC mentions large tornadoes for Friday...We guarantee violent needles.
Posted At: February 21, 2007 @ 12:11 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Friday looks to be an INSANE day for tornadoes in western OK, with a 40-50 knot low-level jet Friday afternoon, increasing to 70+ knots by Friday evening. The result will be massive low-level shear in a thermodynamically-favorable environment. The SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook from Tuesday evening mentions "STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING".
The models are only increasing the low-level jet and moisture with each consecutive run. Shown below is the 12z Wed WRF forecast for Friday evening. Compare this with those of the previous post.
"TORNADOVIDEOS.NET IS PREDICTING AN EF-5!"
The models are only increasing the low-level jet and moisture with each consecutive run. Shown below is the 12z Wed WRF forecast for Friday evening. Compare this with those of the previous post.
"TORNADOVIDEOS.NET IS PREDICTING AN EF-5!"
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Too bad timing will be a little late, so majority of activity may occur after dark. Will continue to monitor.
Will the tracker be going?
Don't like the fact that new WRF run (0Z 2/22) doesnit fire precip by 0Z Saturday. Perhaps it's decreasing the chance of convection by factoring in slower mid level support?? NGM does fire tho, and GFS not sure of. Hopefully we can speed up the mid level support... if so, and moisture verifies, we could be looking at a tornadic day over Oklahoma.
Oh yeah the GPS tracker will definitely be going. Stay tuned.
Lead shortwave could be an issue. We'll know by 00z tomorrow.
If you're looking for friday daytime convection with this system, you'll probably fall short. NGM develops little (if any) QPF 0Z saturday, but activity fires up near the dryline in the 06Z-09Z (24th) period. Same time LLJ kicks in and 500MB jet streak encroaches from the SW.
I looked at forecast soundings from the NGM 40km in the 0Z (24th) time frame. Look very impressive, but still capped, not a strong cap though, so any added lift from a faster 500MB jet streak or other subtle items may be enough to fire off convection friday evening.
I'd like to see more moisture, but being the first setup of the season, can't argu for near 60F dewpoints. That's not bad! Again, with such strong dynamics, I wouldn't be surprised to see a nocturnal tornado outbreak somewhere in western and/or central oklahoma friday night.
Initial storms should definitely become supercelluar quick. but they'll be hauling ass in whatever direction they choose, that is, uless they put a large wedge on the ground, then we'll have something more manageable lol.
Hey Dean, do you have a link you use for forecast soundings?
You can view them at wxcaster.com
Loops and single hour Skew-Ts
My focus is shifting southeast AR on Saturday now. Maybe some overnight hoses in OK on Friday. Damnation this hurts.
Dave, I use www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html to get forecast soundings, but Reeds link works too.
Reed, I agree on the nighttime hoses friday. SUCKS that the best dynamics/lift arrive between 12 and 3AM!! HOW GAY IS THAT?!!!! If timing had it arriving at 4 or 5pm.... it'd be major GAME ON.
What the hell is this system thinking???
After a review of latest data it wouldn't surprise me if moisture return is more robust than models are currently forecasting tomorrow afternoon-evening. Such a strong LLJ flying at 45-50 knots plus out of the due south may allow for some downward mixing to take place complementing the surface transport and can give a bit of a shove to the 65+ dewpoint air sitting right off SE TX right now. As it currently stands models are forecasting dews about 56-58 degrees in far western OK by tomorrow evening. While this certainly is enough for a system such as this one, I feel the end result could be even higher or more widespread dewpoints. Wouldn't surprise me if 60 is reached by midnight at least around the Red River region. I've seen a lot of concern about the cap holding off until late at night and I have to say both the GFS and NAM agree with 1000-1500 CAPE and a fully eroded cap by late afternoon along TX/OK border. In addition, a nice warm tongue looks to set up along the dryline interface in western TX where surface temps may push 75-80 tomorrow afternoon. Combine that with increasing surface convergence, favorable jet dynamics coming in from the west and initiation definitely looks very possible BEFORE sunset. Also latest gfs shows some lead energy getting out onto the TX panhandle tomorrow afternoon to provide the extra lift in mid-levels. I too am quite concerned about the potential for evening tornadoes in SW-W-NW OK and surrounding areas with the very strong shear and all these ingredients. Keep in mind, even if storm mode goes linear, this kind of setup definitely supports embedded tornadoes, so it's really looking like quite a situation in the next 36 hours!
Great synopsis Ilya. We had a nice downward mixing situation last year early spring as well...initiation wasn't a problem then but we definitely didn't have this shear.
I'd say an EF-10 is feasible.
I'm now very optimistic about tomorrow's outlooks after reviewing the 12z WRF model. The new model has sped up the upper level support, and is now showing an eroded cap with precip breaking out before 0z Saturday. I agree with Ilya, I think if anything the dewpoints will be higher than currently indicated. Currently I'm thinking target for initiation is the Woodward area. This is a classic spring time setup!
If the SPC issued a "See Text" would you still be optimistic Holder?
If the SPC issued a "See Text" I'd go down there and apply for a job... because I know at least something about meteorology
this storm system is gonna produce something even if there isn't a tornado there is at least going to be a gustnado