News DetailTORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND!
Posted At: February 20, 2007 @ 11:05 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A powerful early spring-like storm system will move across the southern U.S. this weekend, pumping unseasonable moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The stage will be set for possible tornadoes, maybe an outbreak, on Friday and/or Saturday across the Southern Plains and south-central U.S respectively. Shown above is the WRF forecast CAPE and 850 mb flow for Friday afternoon. We'll definitely be chasing this event all the way to the Atlantic Ocean...so stay tuned!
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my family and all other families are in my prayers of the nightmare of the infamous midwest tornado monsters
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I'm very excited about Friday, even moreso than Saturday, as the setup delivers on a more chaseable countryside. While the WRF has had a tendency to predict higher dewpoints than observed in recent times, I think it will now be a closer representation with the elimination of drought leading to more evapotransportation. With a tight dryline, a backed surface flow, and fairly strong lower level winds, I think it could definitely happen.
I'd predict a Shamrock to Childress to Witchita Falls line for storms to initiate on, and move around 40 knts or so. ATTM I'm leaning more towards further north as it is closer to the upper level left exit and could perhaps enhance lifting.
HOLDER! Where did all that meteorological detail come from?! j/k. I agree with most of your discussion, though being tuesday we'll see how subsequent model runs handle storm placement and wind fields as I'm sure timing and strength (among other things) will change. Usual caveats being lead shortwaves that enhance nocturnal tstorm development night before the event and leave debri clouds which dampen insolation and thus CAPE. With progged strength of system, WAA and LLJ thurs night will likely spark storms near/over oklahoma. Question remains, how widespread these storms will be and will they perhaps leave boundaries for friday's storms. Timing is key. Hopefully best dynamics don't blast thru at 2am saturday morning.
We'll see, but higher than normal potential with this one.
I'm liking Saturday in the Ozarks again. We'll just have to be underneath the hose to see it!
You would like the Ozarks, you saw a tornado last time. The only highlight of the Ozarks for me was stopping in a town named Licking.
i hope you guys do well on your chase. but as anyone would say be careful out there. ive seen a fair few spring storms on the lower part of florida (my advanced army training was in pensacola from january of 2006 to may of 2006 and there was 3 tornado warnings inside of a month) and know it can get a bit hectic in the coastal and inland 100-300 mile range. so good luck you guys and get some good footage for this old army guys stuck untill august in korea.