News DetailWinter Storm Watch issued for OK!
Posted At: December 7, 2007 @ 11:56 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Snow
A winter storm watch was issued for central and western Oklahoma just about 30 minutes ago for the possibility of a significant ice storm across the region. The 12z WRF run this morning was colder at the surface than the 00z run last night, indicating that the freezing precipitation may occur even further south and east if this trend continues. Additional watches will likely be issued further north and east if they haven't already. Stay tuned for continuous updates on this potentially major ice storm!
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Cool! I'm keeping an eye on it from home base... or just home, whatever you choose to call it ;)
is it me- or does this remind you of what happened earlier this year with all sort of icing going on- i owuld pull a wisecrack about the ice- but this is to serious of a situation
winter storm watch also just issued for kansas city- well i should say northwestern missouri also
I was just about to come over here and say that the GFS seems to be way more erratic these last few runs, with both temps and placement of the precip, but then everyone else beat me to it on the last thead. :D I am happy though, because now it is making me believe that a snow event is possible for us in AR on Wed-Thurs. ... AND I think I see my next gust-front intercept opportunity on Sunday shaping up as well. I really am completely beside myself. In fact, I think I am going to insert a MODERATE RISK for a gust front. There - it's done! I mean, whoa, we're looking at 250+ CAPE?! MIND-BOGGLING! You guys will be on here going on and on about your ice storm and your blizzard, broken tree branches, sliding vehicles, and I'll be all like, Yo, I gots MAJOR CAPE happening. And 30 MPH winds. And it's 66 degrees. AAAAAA!!!!!! Maybe I'll even get a sherrifnado? It could happen!
Reed - This question is directed at you.
What do you think about the possibilts of DFW getting some ice? Obviosly not significant, but even a little will shut everything down.
good luck with that gust front intercept heidi
Looks like an all-rain event right now for Dallas David. The sub-freezing temps won't quite make it in time, if at all.
Western Kansas looks to be out of the loop for winter storms... again....
Good luck Heidi! AAAAAAAAAAAA! lol
Reed
Do you think Oklahoma city will se significant ice?
thats why theres a winter storm watch out zack
I already know Donny, I'm not stupid. I'm the one that saw this comming. I just worded that post wrong:)
Whats up fellas? Been busy, but wanted to drop a line. We finally got some snow last week. also we had some ice rain that was pretty cool! Take care
Zack, No Comment.
However, If you would read the Norman NWS Forcast Discussion/Map. They now have the wording of "Very Significant Winter Storm".
Oh, If anyone thought I was a nerd, Well, heres the proff, A bit of entertainment for anyone wanting to know what I do when Im not watching the storms.
http://www.vacc-sag.org/sagtv.php?pid=913748
EDIT POST: Heres the link to my cockpit feed.
Some information on my current flight.
Continental Flight 89
Boeing 777-200ER
Newark, NJ (KEWR)
Bejing, China (ZBAA)
I departed this morning at 11:10 AM CST
I arrive sometime after midnight, A exact time is on my FMC in Zulu Time. (6 PM CST = 0000 Zulu)
hello does anyone have any loops of maps of precip, and like location the low pressure for this weekend up until next thursday friday?!?!
Here is the infomation I know
http://s212.photobucket.com/albums/cc208/NADOKID1/?action=view¤t=cornus_foemina_map.gif
my mistake zack im sorry- but yeah okc- prolly between 1/2 and 3/4 inch of ice
Greg - here are some of the maps you asked for. They are time sensitive and will change after the new models come out. Also I am not sure if these links will work. This info can be found at weather.cod.edu/forecast.
Here is the WRF precip loop through 84 Hrs:
http://weather.cod.edu/loops/wrfSP.precip.html
Here is the GFS precip loop through 240 hrs:
http://weather.cod.edu/loops/gfsSP.precip.html
500mb winds from 0 - 240 hrs:
http://weather.cod.edu/loops/gfsUS.500spd.html
David, I used to do flight sim a lot too. I'm really pretty good at the flying part, not good at landing on the runway though. oops. Do you know about www.airliners.net?
(...End off-topic discussion...)
It's misty foggy here, 39 degrees. I am liking my gust front chances a lot! :D
speaking of that heidi- based on what i an seeing- im going to have to say we will be in the warm secter bye midnight easily- but right now- the warm front is roughly along a line from fort smith to south little rock to memphis
Hey Zack...I'm thinking we'll see all freezing precip here in the OKC area. The worst case scenario for this area would be sleet intially, followed by a prolonged period of freezing rain. Then you get the initial icy base, and the freezing rain just builds on it. Still though, all freezing rain would be bad too. The models usually seem to underdo the southward surge of deep, Arctic airmasses, since they act more like a density current just east of the Rockies then following synoptic-scale forcing. It happened for last year's ice storm, and we had all sleet here in the OKC area, despite a forecast for all freezing rain (the cold air at low-levels was deeper than forecast by the models), and the freezing rain was confined to eastern OK where all hell broke loose. We went down there after the storm and it was insane!
hey wes thanks but is there anyway to change that to Great lakes veiw?
nvm i got it thanks
Hey hey!! Is this gonna be your chance for a lil white stuff Reed?? We've still got plenty to go around here!! We're under a Wind Chill Advisory here til 10am!! could go as low as -40 in spots!! brrrr!!
brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr brady keep warm bud
The Local News said there is a Possibility os 1/4 to 1/2 inch of Ice for the KC Area.
I do hope we wont losse Power.
Everyone out there be safe.
Heldi - I go there multiple times a day, Just read a couple trip reports.
(End off-topic discussion)
Very interesting, I do hope it gets close enough for some ice near me, Late November/Early December last year reminds me of significant sleet we had. It was amazing, plus we had wind gusts 30+. It changed over to all snow about 1 hr before sunset. The clouds cleared out, but it was still snowing, just some low level "scud".
It was the most beautiful sunset I have, and had ever seen.
I'll try Donny!! This is the $#!tty part about winter!! hehe
it's only dropped to -2 from 0 since I came home from work about 3hrs ago!! wind chill -19f at the airport!!
i saiddddddd brrr its cold in here i said there must be a chill in the atmoshere i said brrr its cold in here there must be a chill in the atmoshere
New 0z models are showing the arctic air mass not penetrating as far into Oklahoma during the winter storm forecast period. As such, it looks like here in Norman we will only see freezing precip for a brief period of time early Sunday morning before warming up on Monday and Monday night.
Reed mentioned the possibility of the models under forecasting the temps, so that would have to happen right now for any major event.
In any case, I can say that one of my biggest pet peeves is rain in winter. I absolutely hate it. I wont ever live further south than I am right now!
Correction: I meant to say a brief period of freezing precip on Monday morning, before sunrise. We'll see....
yea i agree with Brady, this is the crappy part about Winter up here in the North..Unless you enjoy bitter cold temps/wind chills, then this is super weather! But all this arctic chill up here in Minny will be one thing to fuel the big winter mess that's gonna plague the Midwest the next few days. Looks like the snow area may push a bit farther north as well, possibly as far north as the Twin Cities Saturday Night.
hey D Holder! what up! we had some massive winds here in amsterdam, lot of rain now. hope u guys get some snow!
AAArghh I need to change my CHOOOON! on my site its really getting annoying now..
Hey peeps, just got an idea; let s hold a vote! for...the best stormchasing song ever!!!!
I vote for this one (not sure if its the best but its up there)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8MM0CK6PAwo
hmmm,,,,i guess everyone is out partying,,,or dead a sleep,,,anyways it sucks! hehehe btw im thinking about making a new video...a tribute to stormchasers....anyone who doesnt want me to use their footage,,speak up now or forever hold ur silence :P would you mind reed?
Yes Cors!! I'm a lil buzzed, not totally crocked like normal but...
I agree on the chasing song!! Now from what I learned last season was, there is several different moods with chasing!! Early in the chase a lot of excitement and anticipation, then the thrill of being or near the core, then the ride home!! what evers on your mind would probably be the emotion your feeling! ( mine mostly was tired as hell, but anxious to report back here)!! Base your chasing tunes on that and ya might have good music to match the mood of your whole trip!!
Oh, and factor in the pissed off cuz of busts in there too!!
yea brady I got it...Im so gonna dance on my first tornado video....hopefully with the car music playing in the background...Im just thinking (atm) that it would be a first, stormchaser dancing with in the background a tornado lol (ok me is a bit tipsy now) :P
yea I remember on my first real chase ,just last week I whent to an island here to intercept a winter storm. the trip towards was awesome but the funniest was when i walked into my hotel lobby while it was thundering and very windy with hail and the children in the hotel were like mommy its storming terribly,,,thats when I thought: I have arrived and yes,,,,im bad. lol
Well... I'm off to work!! The truck started with no problem!!
-11f at KDLH wind chill -29f!! I probably won't be playing outside much today!! hehe Have a good one folks!!
Good Morning -
Very Interesting Situation, The cold front is about 24 hours ahead of where it should be now. Its just NW of Fort Worth - Temps in Decater, Where it should be in the low 60's at the moment, Are currently freefalling, Now dropping below 47 at the present moment. I must admit, This could help out quite a bit, in the freezing line moving futher east.
Hey everyone we have a thin but slick sheet of ice here in S KC this morning. My dad was out and about and saw 4 accidents!! They are expected an increase in rain later this afternoon as right now we are seeing a freezing drizzle. Will most likely have a short video up later tonight on my blog.
My "Storms of 2007" DVD came this morning - YES!!! :D
It's gonna rain and rain here, too. YES again!
Hope you guys start pouring in with your ice storm reports soon. - Nice job of kicking it off for everyone, Michael O.
Hey guys!, this isnt looking good for you guys in OK, ive been talking to Zack today and from what he has shown me the cold front has arrived early there.....
Just too let you know what is going on here, pressure is currently at 984 hPa and falling, gusts up to 34 mph SSR and we have had an occluded front pass over us early this morning heading NE, Temps at 5 celcius and visibilty is at 6km.....
well one step at a time there heidi lol - first this dense fog has to burn off
Hey guys! I was under the weather a little bit the past couple of days, so I haven't been on ver much lately. There's also a thin sheet of ice on the roadways here in SW KS. I have to work today, so I"ll be out for awhile. Hopefully I don't get into an accident *knock on wood.*
Yeah Donny, about the rain, I meant over the next several days. It looks like a pretty wet forecast (at least as of last night - haven't checked any updates yet!). It has gotten even foggier here since this morning.
Be careful out there everybody (AJ!!!).
haha. Thanks Heidi. I got some pics just a bit ago, they're not exactly showing excellent structure or awesome snowfall, but oh well...
heheh, this is the thickest fog I've seen in a while, and definatly the longest lasting. 2:17 PM and it's only getting thicker. right now the visibility is at about 200 feet and as I type it went down to 150, definatly a blah day lol
I just looked at the models. GFS AND WRF. I am not happy. :-{
Here's a pic from Thursday evening... just some high level clouds.
http://i8.tinypic.com/7xv3229.jpg
And pics from earlier today before work... nothing special.
http://i1.tinypic.com/6pf4qpe.jpg
http://i19.tinypic.com/6nuzxxj.jpg
It's harder to get pics of black ice than I suspected... :P haha
Sucks Heidi :(, GFS and WRF say Sunday night/ Monday looks good for Mixing/ Snowfall.
Heres my Official 2008 storm season video trailer thingy :) watch it and comment!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=HgZzL7rUBCA
jsut now getting a chance to look at the 12z precip type- it looks interesting on the 18th - and looking at the 24th- its going to be a close call on whos getting a white christmas
i'm pretty sure were having a white christmas up here in Minnesota, snow depths at least here in Duluth range from 14 to 25 inches right now, and by the looks of it i don't really see any prolonged spells of warm temps through the next 2 weeks here in the Upper Midwest. Hmm, i wonder when this La Nina winter will actually kick in?, the experts say they almost always produce warmer than average temps for Minnesota, but my god so far this has been a very cold December, and heck November was no picnic either, now granted it's not technically winter, so perhaps the warmer than normal temps will rush in to start the new year? will see..
Please visit my website, and post your comments and recommendations. I update it daily or bi-daily, so it will always be accurate! The address is www.steinbachweather.ca or click my name. Please visit it regularly especially you MB'ers
In honor of the coming cold(est) weather here is something you can do:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urPngC2dNQ4#
Or,
For those off days in the severe months you can do stuff like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gakPTLqFHA#
The latter might help increase storm development...
Here is a Supercell compost
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/index2.html
this si something interesting i was looking at- that an area of low pressure a tropical wave - winds are not favorable for development however- water temps are favorable for development it is located right now 18 north 52 west- moving west- canadien model and gfs both show it now- pushing towards yucatan penninsila bye friday- both models show a piece of energy from this feature into florida and geogia- maybe
sk ... it's great that you have a website and are dedicated to it, but I think you might get a whole lot more people interested in visiting if you try to participate in the discussion here instead of just dropping in and advertising your site. (I'm purposely avoiding using the 4-letter word that is often used to describe this practice, but, I will say that I've heard it also makes a fantastic addition to a mess-hall lunchtime repast.)
Actually you have said that under completely false pretences. I visit this website every day, but only post if the weather affects me (i.e. mostly in summer or during t-storm season). But you are wrong of accusing me of only "dropping in". I think I have been posting here longer than you???