News DetailMajor ice storm possible late this weekend/early next week!
Posted At: December 6, 2007 @ 10:01 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Snow
A cold, Arctic airmass will surge southward to the Southern Plains this weekend, setting the stage for a potentially major winter storm Sunday-Tuesday across Northwest Texas, Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, and into the Great Lakes thereafter. A strong upper trough will advance across the Rockies into the Central U.S. through the period, inducing a strong southerly low-level jet which will advect warm/moist air up and over the shallow Arctic airmass at low-levels Given temperatures above freezing from the 925 to 800 mb layer, and a shallow layer of sub-freezing temperatures near the surface, freezing rain and sleet will be the predominate precipitation type across Northwest TX, Central OK, Southeast KS, and northern MO, with all snow to the immediate northwest. Important parameters as forecast by the 00z WRF are displayed below, valid for Monday morning:
Based on the recent model data, which of course is subject to change given that the event is still a few days out, our best guess for precipitation type from Sunday morning through Tuesday is shown graphically below. Since this could be a very significant winter storm, I've decided to remain in Norman for the weekend to document this thing from start to finish. If necessary, we'll travel to wherever the conditions will be worst!
Based on the recent model data, which of course is subject to change given that the event is still a few days out, our best guess for precipitation type from Sunday morning through Tuesday is shown graphically below. Since this could be a very significant winter storm, I've decided to remain in Norman for the weekend to document this thing from start to finish. If necessary, we'll travel to wherever the conditions will be worst!
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This is looking to be bigger each model run. WRF and GFS are beginning to line up as well. I will definitely be venturing out into it at some point, but maybe i wont have to go very far if it takes out the metro. Major power outages possible, like all of OKC metro if that verifies. This could make the winter storms last year look wimpy.
you want to see something big wes - look at the gfs model for the 17th- but first thigns frist- lets get threw this ice/snow storm
Do you think this will come up to Canada, particularly to the Quebec?
I have decided that I am not even going to complain about the placement of the "magic line" separating frozen from liquid precip. I'm excited about ANY precip at this point.
Looks like you won't (or shouldn't) have to travel too far for compelling footage (hope your ticket was refundable, too :-/ )
So who visited my website? How did it look? Click my name if you haven't seen it yet!
Caro: if Im not mistaken I think you guys are sending all of this cold front our way.....
I can't get last year's mid-January event out of my mind the past couple days while tracking this upcoming storm. We were teased with the possibility of a huge ice storm along the I-44 corridor with mass panic in the OKC area, only to have some inexplicable phenomenon produce almost all sleet despite a 700-850 mb warm nose near 10C. I've only lived in Norman a couple years, but it seems like we tend towards sleet rather than snow or freezing rain in most winter precip events, even when models consistently suggest otherwise. With finals coming up next week, I hope to hell this is an exception, lol.
hey reed- just thought i would see if you saw the canadien model- it shows a "hurricane" developing and mving torwards florida its crazy- therea alreayd a tropical wave- talkin about crazy
Hey Reed,
I think you need to include KC in the freezing rain area because we wont see temps above 32 all weekend into next week. And in my area they are thinking about issuing watches pretty soon.
The HPC is indicating the worst of the ice storm on Sunday to be from SE Kansas into KC east across C Missouri into extreme W IL as well as SW/C OK.
YAAAAAAAAAAAY!!! I've been monitoring this situation closely for power outages and travel difficulties are becomming a MAJOR concern!
Hy guys what up this morning???
Kinda wierd my power went out for about 5 hours last night,
Hey Reed (or anybody) what are the chances of us in the Northeastern Texas Panhandle seeing any accumulating freezing rain or snow?
I live in Mcalester...whats the chance of all that hitting me? Thanks for the prayer Sam...but ice? just kidding!!!!
The new model runs look even colder at the surface...definitely looking like a MAJOR ice storm if these runs verify. Karen, based on last night's run I'd say you'd get mostly rain, but if this trend continues, you'll likely get freezing rain as well. It's still too far out to know exactly where the precip types will set up though.
Michael: Definitely...I should have had it further south up there.
Toby - The NE TX Pan looks to be in for mostly snow. It might start as freezing rain before the upper level temps cool off in that area. I wouldnt be surprised to see atleast a couple inches in that area, especially if one of the precip bands track through there. Monday evening looks like it the most likely time period for snow there, shouldnt be much more than 5 inches though, given the current forecasted precip amounts.
were soposed get some snow but less than a in but they were sayin yesterday we were soposed to get rain
To andy: lol I'm in the province of Quebec, east of that...so it's moving in my direction. That's why I was asking if it's going up (north east) to come my way...
Can anybody answer my question??? ;-) Thanks!
...It probably won't come my way if my readings are good and the forecast for the next week shows nothing very interesting...but as I know the pourcentage of success of our forecasters... lol I have more trust on people of this website!
GFS clearly is wrong, it has no idea how to handle this extreme shallow cold air. .... Throwing it out.....
The GFS temperatures are all over the place. This run has to be thrown out. WRF is still on track though.
Winter Storm Watch issued for much of OK. Half inch of ice expect over a large area with locally higher amounts. I am curious if they cancel school during finals week what would happen.
OK....thanks Reed...last year we got 3 inches of solid ice out on our pastures,and it was fun sliding around and ice skating, but unfortunatly my dad fell and hit his head on the ice and had to have brain surgery, so I dont think that i want any ice this year!!!!