News DetailFast-moving Nor'easter headed for New England tonight!
Posted At: December 30, 2007 @ 3:31 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Snow
A fast-moving Nor'easter is strengthening rapidly over the Southeast U.S. and is barreling towards New England where heavy snow and strong winds will develop later tonight and continue through Monday night. The heaviest snow will fall across Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Coastal Maine between Midnight tonight and noon on Monday, with 6-12 inches of snow likely across this region. The water vapor loop below shows the strengthening system as of Sunday evening over the Southeast U.S.
The WRF and GFS are forecasting the surface low to deepen to around 990 mb by 18z Monday, with up to 1.5 inches water equivalent falling across extreme Northeast MA, Southeast NH, and Southwest ME by Tuesday (most will fall before Monday afternoon). Both model forecast panels below are from the WRF:
Consequently, winter storm warnings have been issued for central NY northeastward across eastern New England, with snow advisories to the west and north across the rest of New England. Several tornado warnings have been issued for rotating thunderstorms in the warm sector across southern Georgia, where temperatures have risen into the 70s with dewpoints in the 60s, and a low-level jet has developed to the south and east of the 850 mb low. Weak, brief tornadoes are possible with these storms through the evening. Stay tuned for updates as this winter storm unfolds...If anyone has any pictures or video we could post on the blog please email them to reed@tornadovideos.net!
The WRF and GFS are forecasting the surface low to deepen to around 990 mb by 18z Monday, with up to 1.5 inches water equivalent falling across extreme Northeast MA, Southeast NH, and Southwest ME by Tuesday (most will fall before Monday afternoon). Both model forecast panels below are from the WRF:
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Looks like it'll be mostly rain/mix here on the southwestern CT coast. Not in the mood for shoveling snow!
Hey guys i'm home now. that was a long trip!
*!!!!!!!Nor'easter AAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!*
Such a contributor, aren't I? :D
squeezed like a tube of toothpaste...
HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUHHHHHHHH that was so random LOL what the hek do you mean andy?
Hey guys, how is everyone??
more snow, wow, just wondering.....is a normall winter for you guys, ice storms loads of snow and freezing temps??
we had another storm yesterday with winds that reached 30mph, i went somewhere i had never been befor to get infront of this storm, i had no idea where i wait got dark so quickly, to be honest i was reasonably scared not of the storm but where i was lol
Tim was it tornadic?
Tim, this is pretty much a typical winter for the US, so far. A few of the events so far have been stronger and earlier than usual (the ice storm, the wind storms in the NW, etc.) but those weren't actually even in winter yet. Certain areas of the country are always more prone to snow and ice ... what would be abnormal is if all of a sudden the southern California valleys and Florida got a bunch of freezing temps and/or snow, and Vermont was at 70 degrees in mid-January.
AND it would be a tiny bit abnormal if we got a tornado outbreak in OK/AR on January 8th. Anyone look at the GFS lately? (Why do I do this to myself?!)
what a way to enter a new year ahallalalalalalalalalalalaalalalalalalalalallalalallalalal
heidi i was thinking the same thing as you can see bye some of the bullitens i posted on my myspace bullitens
lol Caleb no way near, i was bored and it looked like a bit of fun lol, if i stumble across something tornadoc, i will be a gonner lol, im only on a bike lol :P the video i got though, all you can hear is the windhe front shows up real well.....
Ok thanks Heidi, just from whats gone on so far for you guys all over states, it seems real bad with the ice storm in OK and now loads of snow causing wide sprea travell issues i assume, just seems to me different lol compared to the 2£ a year we get a year for 1 day lol.......i know brady is having a ln though lol :P
when I said that comment earlier I was talking about the satellite loop, the flow from the NW & SE seemed to be squeezing the NE system. Here's a vid maybe youve seen it stumbled upon it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm0eX5aizHg
Heidi,
I saw that on the GFS too! I had to blink a few times because I thought I was going crazy. My dad and I will chase if it looks good! But the problem is back here at home the GFS is indicating close to 4 inches of precip at my house and that could either be snow or rain so we could be in for major flooding or a snowstorm of the century!!
WOOOOOOOO!!!
Look at this vid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcFcwyxeJ8U&feature=related
Anyway guys, im out for the night..... have a good one see ya tomorrow for the last day of an eventful year
also here is the link for the video f that storm iwas saying about earlier
http://s214.photobucket.com/albums/cc264/timmyrfc/?action=view¤t=39bc7003.pbr
let me know what you think please lol
see ya! have a good one!
Great video Tim;)
Are you serious Hiedi???? A tornado Outbreak for OK and AR on January 8th? I need to keep up with the GFS more often....lol. I'm a bit skeptic though.
well zack- if you look at the gfs 240 hour 850 mb wind speeds- theres a nice pocket of 80 knot winds int he eastern 1/4th of oklahoma and and greater then 60 knot's into arkansas- and iof this holds true if not stronger wind fields- thats supporting of at least a squall line forming if not supercells- and already showing surface temps in tthe mid 60s across oklahoma and nrothern 1/3 of arkansas with low 70 temps into central and southern arkansas- and thats more then sufficient for a good severe weather event
well zack- if you look at the gfs 240 hour 850 mb wind speeds- theres a nice pocket of 80 knot winds int he eastern 1/4th of oklahoma and and greater then 60 knot's into arkansas- and iof this holds true if not stronger wind fields- thats supporting of at least a squall line forming if not supercells- and already showing surface temps in tthe mid 60s across oklahoma and nrothern 1/3 of arkansas with low 70 temps into central and southern arkansas- and thats more then sufficient for a good severe weather event
yeah Donny, I'm noticing that now, although my greatest concern is in southern Arkansas, where they have the highes instability and CAPE values. Thanks for the info Donny:)
I'll definently will be keeping an eye on this, though I'm still a bit skeptic. Tornadoes this time of year? We all know that can strike anywhere at anytime, but this just seems a bit ominous(is this a sign of whats to come in spring 2008?) anyway, again I will be keeping an eye on this.
Yeah it looks pretty good. We will see tds near 60F, CAPE to 1500j/kg, good shear, and good winds aloft. This makes me very excited considering the what time of the year it is. I aint gettin my hopes up but we sure would chase an event like this unless it looks like squall line crap, but you cant figure out those kind of details for at least 5 days from now. Hopes to some good winter chasing.
Yeah Michael, I agree. But if ya notice, the wrf shows the precip in a line. This could easily be a squall line type situation..... If this occurs, we could see mainly a damaging wind/hail event. But again, those could also be supercells, so ya never know. This is still a long ways out, and a lot will change between now in then. I also think we shouldn't hit this thing to hard.... what if it turns out to be nothing? Again, only time will tell.
its my pleasure to let ya know- i was thinking the same thing as far as cape values are concerned- i know some of arkansas's worse tornado outbreaks have been in january- Tornado Outbreak of 01/17/99 (NE Arkansas) , Tornado Outbreak of 01/21/99 (SW/CNTL/NE Arkansas), there was one in january 1890 in the st. louis area just to name a few
Wouldn't that be an insane start to 2008! This seems like more of an El Nino pattern so far this winter than La Nina.
yeah it would be insane- but you know weather patterns can change so suddenly it'll make your head spin
Yeah Reed, that would definently be an insane start lol.
And I also agree on what you said about this La Nina... Sometimes I wonder about the CPC.... They almost always predict the same thing every year!!!
Yeah Zach lol I agree. Anyway I was doing looking back and I saw the last La Nina we had was 1999, this was a great season and sad season for many with devstating outbreaks from Jan 21 that ravaged Arkansas with its biggest tornado outbreak ever! May 3 which dropped 70 tornadoes in C Oklahoma including the strongest tornado to ever stike the US that destroyed Moore, OK. There is more but I don't feel like typing it all. Anyway a few more notable La Ninas include 1974 which was the year of the Super Outbreak. Just a thought...
By what I'm seeing on the water vapor loop above, us northern dwellers are in for a cold blast of arctic air. This might be fuel for someone down south in a few days.
As far as the La Nina effect goes, we are right on forecast for Manitoba... Cold and lots of snow. Oh wait, thats actually normal for us in winter.
STRIKE! I was wondering where you'd gone. I thought maybe Reed had actually banned you! ;D
Here's a few links for info on the January tornado outbreak in AR/TN.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lzk/html/tor011799.htm
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lzk/html/tor012199.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1999_tornado_outbreak_sequence
Very interesting Michael. I'll check later today, but I wonder how long the La Nina persisted in 99 and 74...if it continued into the spring or began to weaken. My research is on how the evolution of these patterns affect summer weather, and a dying El Nino seems to result in heavy precip in the southern and central Plains...which could be correlated with tornadoes since most of the precip is convective that time of year. I'll need to see what happens during a dying La Nina.
Global warming is probably destroying all the relationships anyway!!
Reports of up to 9 inches across western MA and southeast NH. Maine was pounded too.
Yeah any one rembere the superstorm of I think 1991? 60-80 mph wind Nor'easter in the north and mostly F-2 toradoes in FL. I'me not sure how much snow thay got up north that day I think it was up to 10"!
Cool Heidi too bad i can't rembere that LOL i was'nt born yet i was born 5 years after that.
Amsterdam is about to go MENTALLLLL!!! woooooohoooooo the party has started have a great NYE all of you!!!!!!!!
its party time!!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!
well i hate to jinx it- but just woke up (damn my alarm for not going off) and took a peek at the gfs- its still showing something big happening- this may just happen
Have a good time up there Cors...I'm sure Amsterdam is a little more fun than Grand Rapids, MI on New years!
A winter storm watch is in effect for my area for 6+ inches of snow. This could be interesting.
Happy New Years Eve
Ill try to shoot some cool fireworks footage, I got some nice stuff...heheheheh
update: mariott hotel is burning already this is gonna be a long night....
Haha Happy New Years everyone!! I'll be filming the fireworks my neighbours are setting off tonight. This is going to be awsome!! Up close thrillers!!
Cors, what does Amsterdam do on NYE? I don't even think Edmonton has fireworks to celebrate it downtown..Just on Canada's day they do it.
Hey guys
happy new years eve, only 6 hours to here :D
I know what I'd be doing if I was in Amsterdam!! hehe
Have a good one everyone, stay safe tonight!!
Reed,
I checked it out and I saw that in 99 and 74 both La Ninas began around October the year before and persisted through the entire year. So with that said I couldn't tell ya if we will see that or not. Who knows the weather has been freakin crazy lately.
Hi again. I'm still here. We got 12" by noon today. All Light and fluffy! I love it. In terms of the last decade or so, this is unusual amounts of December snow for Maine. Just wanted to report in what we got here. I have a few pics if you all want to see.
Oh and we are about ~8miles from the coast. Inland got less then we did.
Happy New Years :)
OH boy they are calling for snow showers in VA......I won't hold my breath. Have fun Cors....look forward to the vid. I have to go get the party started at a friends bar, with thier karaoke machine. They bought it and no one sings but me.......! Be back here before 10pm though. Happy new years!
Kim, we need footage of a karaoke storm!
Heidi, did you miss me? Or did you miss banning me? haha. I was busy with xmas and all that. Closed the shop and hung out with the kid for a few days... It was a nice break. Oh yeah, then I puked for 30 hours straight.
2007 brought weather history within 40 Kms (25 Miles) of where I live in the form of Canada's first F-5. Knowing now what I've learned from everyone on this site, I would have probably have a front row seat. I can't wait for the 2008 season to kick off so I can get we are all here for.
Monster Tornados!
Now its party time! HNY Everyone.
HAPPY NEW YEARS GUYS!! Anyway, the GFS is still showing something big..... Maybe we just might see something, but it is still a long ways out.
If you guys want to see the article I did for the end of the year, just go to my site - click my name. Feel free to leave comments. When you get there, just click breaking news blog, and it should be there. I'm doing an all nighter tonight....lol:P
yup it sure does zack- i have seen this for the past few days- sure enough i have seen a slight increase in cape values