News DetailTornadoes possible today along Central Gulf Coast!
Posted At: December 20, 2007 @ 11:26 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Tornado watches have been issued for this afternoon across the Central Gulf Coast from Louisiana east to southern Alabama, as a potent shortwave moves east through this evening. Here are the two watches currently in effect as of 11:00 am CST:
As seen in the composite reflectivity images in the tornado watch graphics above, a strong bow echo is surging across southern Mississippi into southern Alabama. Strong winds with gusts up to 80 mph will be possible with these linear storms as they move rapidly eastward. The tornado threat is greatest to the south and east of this line where isolated supercells will have the opportunity to develop in a strongly sheared environment. A warm front is draped across the Gulf of Mexico Coastline, with an uncapped, weakly unstable airmass located just to the south. The most likely scenario is as follows: HP supercells will develop along the Coastline or to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and will become surface-based in the weakly capped and strongly sheared environment. These storms will move rapidly northward and will likely cross the warm front and become elevated in the more stable environment further inland. These storms will have the potential of producing brief tornadoes during a small time window as they cross the warm front over southern LA, MS, and AL. The warm front is clearly evident in the 1700z RUC analysis for CAPE below:
The strong low-level jet across this region can be seen in the RUC analysis below for 850 mb. As can be seen, an LLJ of 40-50 knots exists over LA and MS as of 1700z, and the LLJ axis is likely moving slowly eastward as the shortwave advances. This LLJ is responsible for the favorable low-level shear for tornadoes today across the Central Gulf Coast. JY is located in Mobile, AL and is monitoring the situation closely. Stay tuned for updates as this potentially dangerous severe weather situation unfolds!
As seen in the composite reflectivity images in the tornado watch graphics above, a strong bow echo is surging across southern Mississippi into southern Alabama. Strong winds with gusts up to 80 mph will be possible with these linear storms as they move rapidly eastward. The tornado threat is greatest to the south and east of this line where isolated supercells will have the opportunity to develop in a strongly sheared environment. A warm front is draped across the Gulf of Mexico Coastline, with an uncapped, weakly unstable airmass located just to the south. The most likely scenario is as follows: HP supercells will develop along the Coastline or to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and will become surface-based in the weakly capped and strongly sheared environment. These storms will move rapidly northward and will likely cross the warm front and become elevated in the more stable environment further inland. These storms will have the potential of producing brief tornadoes during a small time window as they cross the warm front over southern LA, MS, and AL. The warm front is clearly evident in the 1700z RUC analysis for CAPE below:
The strong low-level jet across this region can be seen in the RUC analysis below for 850 mb. As can be seen, an LLJ of 40-50 knots exists over LA and MS as of 1700z, and the LLJ axis is likely moving slowly eastward as the shortwave advances. This LLJ is responsible for the favorable low-level shear for tornadoes today across the Central Gulf Coast. JY is located in Mobile, AL and is monitoring the situation closely. Stay tuned for updates as this potentially dangerous severe weather situation unfolds!
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Just got off the phone with my Bro, he said it is coming down in Bama with some thunder and lightning mixed in. Don't like to see the severe weather but they will definitely take the rain.
Sunny and 40 here in Ohio with rain on Sat.
well even though a tornado watch is a tornado watch- i am more concerned about tornados saturday- unfortunantly in the same area as today
well even though a tornado watch is a tornado watch- i am more concerned about tornados saturday- unfortunantly in the same area as today
Hey guys its been awhile since ive been on here work is startin to get to me.
Anyways ya i have some video of a lake effect band that came through the area ill see if i have enough energy to put it together tonight.
Anyways im out for the day my last day of work is tomorrow until the new year.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.
hey guys.... how is everyone?
this looks quiet good, will be interesting to see what happend....
last day of school today :D, isure im up for everything over the next few weeks :D
We had several severe thunderstorm warnings, but no tornado warnings. At least around the Mobile area.
There is minor damage, but mostly just heavy rain... The timing of all the awesome dynamics was off. The high cape stayed offshore even with the strong 850 flow.
storm today:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/weather/12/20/mississippi.tornado/?iref=mpstoryview
Yeah TWC was talking about that.....
TOMARROWS MY BIRTHDAY i'm gonna be 11
have a happy 11th b-day caleb
Happy Birthday Caleb!!!
Happy Birthday Caleb! What are you going to do for your birthday?
Just to my granny's house like 30 seconds down the road hope I get a tube..... no chance tho LOL
Hey guys!! How's things?? Another busy day at the shop!! so what's the current thoughts on the weekend storm?? Last I heard a lot of uncertainty!! Any Lake effect maybe?? I guess we'll have to wait n see!! hehe I have the weekend off!! I have to work Christmas eve, but I requested to ( cuz I like to have 1 or 10 Tom and Jerry's while I work!! SHH)
well brady- about this weekends storm- i know theres winter storm watchs out for possible blizzard conditions in southwestern kansas- and then you'll have severe weather in the warm sector- i mean the wind fields are absolutely wow
Reed - Unless your the only one in the state without power -
Im guessing you have power back now?
We better not get too much rain or feezing crap!! The temps on the gfs kinda bother me!! Hopefully we'll get some more measurable snow!! hehe
lets hope so brady cause freezing rain you cant even play in at least with snow you build snowman, snowball fights, snow forts, etc
I was hoping to do a lil snowmobiling/bar hopping!! Sort of a past time up here!! hehe!! And of course try to get some more nice pics!!
hmm interesting both articles from the same person...
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=F80A6386-802A-23AD-40C8-3C63DC2D02CB
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewCulture.asp?Page=%5CBusiness%5Carchive%5C200211%5CBUS20021122a.html
powned!
Happy Birthday Caleb! :D
David, I'm pretty sure Reed is in Michigan right now, but there was still no power a day or so ago.
We had I guess what could be referred to as a MCS move through early this morning, between 4:30 and 6:00. Donny probably had it worse to the south. It was only about 43 degrees but there was a ton of thunder and lightning. The dog did not take this well.
yeah we did heidi- it knocked out power for 7 hours- we had some very beautifull lightning very loud thunder, wasn't sure on the winds though allthough there was also some pea sized hail- i know there warnings for garland county and hot spring county
Brady, the storm this weekend is one that has to be watched very carefully if you live anywhere from Iowa to Minnesota to Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and Northern Illinois. A very very complex storm system to say the least. Appears that there's gonna be a merger taking place. Strong energy diving SE out of West Canada into the Upper Midwest, while more energy heads NE from the Southern Plains. Should see phasing occur sometime Saturday with one main low pressure center then heading toward the Green Bay WI area or else over Lake Michigan. This storm could deepen rapidly between Saturday and Sunday Morning, pressures near the center of the low dropping from 1000 mb to around 988 mb by 12z Sunday. The only negative factor for a real good snow for Duluth, MN will be that the low is tracking a bit too far east for us locally, although i still think we could see between 1-4" of snow by Sunday. Could see 6-12" off to our east though. I think this could be a significant winter storm, perhaps even blizzard conditions Saturday Night/Sunday Morning, especially over Central/Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan based off the info. from the 12z ECM/NAM forecasts. I think the snow that we get here in Duluth from Saturday Night to Sunday will be moving from East to West if u can imagine that! This storm could really get bent out of shape, also will probably have a situation where it'll be warmer here in N. Minnesota with much colder temps found in the Twin Cities, Redwood Falls areas, and down south to Iowa and Nebraska this weekend, in other words the cold air push will likely move in from the South-Southwest... Very interesting atmospheric conditions coming up this weekend
Well-I hope we get snow out of that storm and not rain-would be first white Xmas in a quite a few years!!!(for Northern IL)!!!
Sweet Tim!! I've been looking forward to your update all day!! Fingers are still crossed
haha. Now I see what I miss while I'm out and about. I wonder if Donny's sooper-dooper blizzard forecast is going to produce... *hint hint ;)
Happy Birthday Caleb! You're an old man at 11... haha. jk.
This was reported from earlier today.
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1500 4 ENE BROOKHAVEN LINCOLN MS 3161 9038 *** 1 INJ *** UPDATE FROM NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM...2 MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED...CAMPER TRAILER HEAVILY DAMAGED...WORKSHOP DESTROYED...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES AND (JAN)
I guess the season never really end, does it.
Well, when one ends, another begins Strike, just like now... I have a reason for AAAAAAHHH!!!
...NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...
.A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING, YET INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
FRIDAY EVENING, WITH VERY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WILL FIRST IMPACT FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS ADJACENT
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MID-EVENING FRIDAY...WITH SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
IS POSSIBLE CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
The tornado in MS that did the damage was rated an EF2.
lol thanks Brady, yea i'm getting gray hair over this storm..very frustrating i tell ya-lol..j/k it's been interesting though to watch the forecast models change with each new model run, aww well, the joys of winter forecasting i guess.. I think parts of Wisconsin/Northern Illinois/and Upper Michigan could see quite the winter storm this weekend. Still think a couple inches here in DLH too by Sunday.
Susan, your probably gonna get rain 1st due to all the warmth in place right now, but then colder air will work in, causing the rain to switch-over to snow sometime Saturday Afternoon/Evening, with snow then persisting into early Sunday. Could have lots of blowing/drifting snow too, as long as the snow that falls isn't wet.
I was looking to get a new camera before the next season fires up and was wondering if ya'll had any input. I just bought one a few months back and like it, but was looking to upgrade to an SLR. Any suggestions?
*Winter Storm Watch* issued for Duluth MN Saturday Afternoon/Sunday Morning. I'm not completely sold on winter storm conditions being met here in Duluth just yet, still some differences with the track of this whole storm between the models. Should be interesting to watch and see how this all unfolds
first day of Winter and it's warmer than it was all last Month!! hehe Fingers are still crossed here!! Gotta go to work!! I'll pop in when I get home!! Take care everyone!!
Winter storm watch also issued for all of southern Manitoba... Not holding my breath on this one.
Oh yeah, happy birthday Caleb.
Josh, since choosing the right camera is a very subjective process, you might want to check out this site:
http://www.digital-slr-guide.com/what-is-the-best-digital-slr.html
You can narrow your choices down by price, brand, etc.
...rain for us on sunday... :-(
It was too beautiful to be real... there's almost 90 cm of snow here... at least we'll have a white Christmas...
hey u guys probably do not remember me i'm sam. happy b day Caleb.
;)
Sam from MD! Been wondering where you went :D
You guys just missed a huge snowstorm last weekend, by a few degrees I guess.
Howdy Sam my name is donny-i'm still new to reeds sight- to tell you about myself- i am a weather nutjob- i love severe weather- hate what it does though damage wise and i used to- please tell me about yourself
Thanks Heidi!
Heidi! I can't believe you remember me. Donny, i live in baltimore maryland. i love severe weather like you there's not much to me otherwise!
-Sam
;)