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Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity!

Posted At: December 14, 2007 @ 11:03 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Snow
As a strong upper trough moves east out of the Rocky Mountain region and into the Central Plains, a weak surface low will develop across South Texas and slowly strengthen as it moves east towards the Gulf Coast.  In response to vorticity advection associated with the upper system, a brief period of heavy snow will occur across northern OK, southern KS, and possibly western MO.   Generally 4-6 inches will fall across this region, with locally higher amounts where mesoscale bands or convective elements persist.  Shown below is the most recent Graphicast from NWS Norman:



The WRF and the GFS are consistent for the forecast precipitation associated with the Southern Plains dimension of this system, but with a few subtle differences in timing.  Both models forecast .5 to 1 inch of water equivalent over parts of southern and central KS, with the GFS accounting for the lower end of that range.  The respective forecast precip for the WRF and GFS are displayed below.  The GFS precip over KS looks substantially lower than the WRF, but this is because the GFS is slightly earlier with the timing of the precip in KS, so much of the snow falls before the 12-hr period below. 


As the trough continues to move east, and encounters the intense baroclinic zone along the East Coast (due to the warm waters of the Gulf Stream existing just east of the cold continental air), the real show begins.  An intense Nor'easter is forecast to rapidly intensify just off the coast of New England by Sunday, with the surface pressure decreasing below 980 mb by around 00z Monday.  VERY HEAVY SNOW and strong winds will create blizzard conditions across most of New England, with the exception of the immediate coastline which will receive mostly rain.  Over a foot of snow could fall across parts pf PA, upstate NY, VT, NH, ME, and western MA by Monday morning!!   The GFS forecast MSLP and precip valid for 00z Monday is displayed below, showing the classic Nor'easter.




Accordingly, the NWS has issued winter storm watches for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England for the intense winter storm conditions expected this weekend.  Stay tuned for more updates as this dangerous situation unfolds.

Entry Comments

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By gerb131 | December 14, 2007 @ 12:39 PM #

Again I sit right on the dividing line in Central Ohio. Some people say rain to snow some say all snow and some say all rain with a bit of snow Sat night. If this thing would take a more Southerly course say across Tenn or Central Kentucky I would get nailed. Reed, what do you say for Columbus Ohio? Based on previous storm tracks I say it is a mix for me turning to heavy rain and then maybe an inch or 2 of snow before it ends.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Monty M - Hutch, KS | December 14, 2007 @ 12:47 PM #

Well Reed sounds like we'll get some snow for sure up here. Sorry to take it all from you :) Hope you don't get the freezing rain. it's a mess up here in Hutchinson still. It has improved from an electricity stand point where at least 70% of the town and surrounding area have it back but tree's are still down everywhere, and no cable tv or interent which sucks :)

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 14, 2007 @ 2:01 PM #

Thanks for the update, Reed. You forgot the part about where I get 8" of snow because all the temp. forecasts are predicting 5-degrees higher than they should be. I have to go spray PAM on all of our sleds now. Be back later.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 14, 2007 @ 2:07 PM #

have fin heidi lol

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Wes | December 14, 2007 @ 2:12 PM #

You posted this too soon. Heavy Snow Warning out for central OK. 5-6 inches is to be expected. Not to mention up to 30 mph wind gust. It is going to seem like a blizzard out there.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 14, 2007 @ 2:27 PM #

unfortuantly wes- that doesn't meet blizzard warning criteria allthough localized areas could seem like it with the heavier snowfall that occurs

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Reed | December 14, 2007 @ 2:43 PM #

Wow...I didn't really see that secondary band materializing. It looked a little weird in the models, but shows up in both the WRF and GFS. I still bet the usual will happen in central OK...an inch or two of snow followed by a massive dry-slot. with northern OK northward getting the heavy snow associated with the upper system. We'll see. Here is the multimedia post by the Norman NWS explaining the southward extension of the heavy snow warning.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/briefing/ounbrief.php

I bet it won't happen though...we need to use a little pattern recognition action here. The track of the vort is not very conducive for heavy snow in central OK. But I might be biased not being in Norman

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Toby | December 14, 2007 @ 2:45 PM #

I am in Perryton, Tx. We are getting freezing rain here right now!!!! We are letting school out at 2:00!!!! When the cold front gets here things will really get interesting.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Wes | December 14, 2007 @ 3:17 PM #

Thats why I said it would "seem" like a blizzard. I have been in a few blizzards out on the highways with my dad in Colorado years ago and they are the last thing I would want to get in right now, mainly because I just want school to end. I personally have my doubts that Norman will see a big snow storm either, because I believe the Norman Bubble is still mostly still intact. If this storm does actually happen like they think, the Norman Bubble most no longer be an issue, and this spring will be very fun if thats the case.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By tim Duluth Minnesota | December 14, 2007 @ 4:08 PM #

Heidi just move up north during the Winter and back down south during the Summer, or else just stay in Arkansas year round and hope u get at least one or two winter weather events during the year-lol i dunno what else to say.. pam on ur sleds, wow! reminds me of Chevy Chase and Christmas Vacation

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Zack | December 14, 2007 @ 4:25 PM #

Reed I think your wrong... Have you seen that secondary band!
5-8" of snow is possible!!

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Paul | December 14, 2007 @ 4:31 PM #

hey i was just wondering how much snow might Chicago get? I heard around 1-2 inches. Is there a possibility for more?

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Matt | December 14, 2007 @ 4:39 PM #

Sunday looks pretty damn interesting for me. The Weather Network has something about a Major Winter Storm coming im just in the middle of reading it.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By tim Duluth Minnesota | December 14, 2007 @ 4:42 PM #

Hey Paul, looks like Chicago could get some lake enhanced snowfall along with the northern extent of the system snow this weekend, definately could see 1-3" in that area, possibly a little more if Lake Michigan gets involved more..

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Matt | December 14, 2007 @ 4:44 PM #

Im under a winter storm watch write now there calling for 10 inches of snow Sunday night with the possibility of frezzing rain. Ill try my best to get video and pictures from this storm but there saying that its going to happen overnight so that basicly screws me over.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Matt | December 14, 2007 @ 4:46 PM #

My bad thats Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Caro | December 14, 2007 @ 5:33 PM #

...and what do you think about the south of the Province of Quebec in Canada? Our forecasters can't agree on what will happen...

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By tim Duluth Minnesota | December 14, 2007 @ 5:46 PM #

Based off the 12z model runs, looks like Southern Quebec could see upwards of 10 inches of snow with strong winds, all this probably beginning early Sunday and lasting into early Monday. I'm sorta surprised no watches have been issued yet for Southern Quebec, although i do see they have issued a Special Weather Statement for this possible event later this weekend. I'm not an expert here, so don't hold me to this..lol

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 14, 2007 @ 5:52 PM #

well as long as your prepared caro thats all that matters

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By AJ | December 14, 2007 @ 6:15 PM #

Hey everyone! Hope you're all winterized well! This morning I woke up early to check the models, and I made the forecast of only 2"-4" starting around 10 this morning... I was only 30 minutes off! AAAAAHHH! lol.

My dog doesn't know what to think of it...
http://i3.tinypic.com/71mgaah.jpg

It's a pretty peaceful scene now...
http://i6.tinypic.com/7yg703n.jpg

My driveway before I shoveled the 4" off of it...
http://i13.tinypic.com/8g3yxw7.jpg

And finally, who can resist writing their name in the snow?
http://i12.tinypic.com/6y3odiw.jpg
I used ^^^^ my shoe, not that other stuff... haha.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Jim in New Ulm,MN | December 14, 2007 @ 6:39 PM #

Wish this storm would make a track further north, our snow here is evaporating fast. We only have about 2 to 3 inches left. Its been cold though, high today of 7f was all it could do. Oh well. at least we be driving on the ice here soon with temps like this, the ice is getting thicker quickly. My son keeps asking to get out ice fishing. Guess thats what we will be doing this weekend then.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By justin | December 14, 2007 @ 6:55 PM #

im so mad the noreaster because not moving as fast now and stuff just going to bring us rain it drives me so mad i wanted alot of snow

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 14, 2007 @ 7:32 PM #

can this be another nor'easter? time will tell

http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/gfsUS_0_prec_174.gif

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By greg | December 14, 2007 @ 7:32 PM #

looking around and i found this! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.shtml

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Brady MN | December 14, 2007 @ 7:59 PM #

Hey hey, I'm back from work... and I didn't even work today!!! The Ol Dodge needed some plugs and wires!! She's a brand new machine now!! hehe

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Reed | December 14, 2007 @ 8:01 PM #

Wow..the more I look at the water vapor loop, the RUC, and the 12z WRF and GFS, I'm really having a hard time buying what the NWS Norman is forecasting for central OK. Based on what I've seen, there is absolutely no way the OKC area will see 5-8 inches of snow!!

The upper dynamics and deformation are all to the north in KS in association with the lead vort, and the Gulf moisture is being pulled north and east away from the area, where it will merge with the upper forcing in the Ohio River Valley...where all hell will break loose.

Meanwhile, a massive dry slot associated with the lead vort will clean out all the moisture over southwest and central OK, and the precip currently over NM will die out in the TX Panhandle within a drier airmass..and because of the subsidence behind the lead vort.

I've seen crazier things happen...but 1-2 inches will probably be the max over southwest and central OK. Weird forecast....but they do it for a living and are much better forecasters than we are!

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 14, 2007 @ 8:19 PM #

they may be better forecasters then us but we all make mistakes in forecasts- lets just face it- models change, directiosn in storms change, etc

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Brady MN | December 14, 2007 @ 8:20 PM #

Yeah... after all They're always right!!

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By caleb | December 14, 2007 @ 8:24 PM #

Sorry guys I'v not been on TV.net I'M UNDER A FLOOD WATCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! it's gonna snow up to 4" tomarrow and sunday...

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 14, 2007 @ 8:42 PM #

lol if you say so brady

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By tim Duluth Minnesota | December 14, 2007 @ 9:27 PM #

The storm track looks unchanged for at least the next week or so, low pressure systems will form over the Southwestern U.S. then eject east and northeast from there, this would be great news for the Southeast U.S. if this pans out as much needed rains would fall down in that area, while in the colder air, ice or snow would fall across the Northeastern U.S. Sort of unusual in a La Nina to get repeated rain episodes over the Southeast U.S., and i also find it quite interesting that we've been stuck in the arctic air for so long here in the Upper Midwest since were in a La Nina pattern. Temps should be warmer than average up here in Minnesota in a La Nina, that hasn't happened just yet, but i keep saying that once January comes in, perhaps this La Nina will KICK IN!

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 14, 2007 @ 10:20 PM #

Hey, check out the radar out of Little Rock. There's my 10" of snow ... if it was 28 degrees here, that is.

In reality, it is 36 degrees, the precip is just reaching us and it is in the form of snow, but it will be interesting to see how long that lasts as the heavier bands of precip get here.

Reed mentioned the water vapor image. I have to say that this is the first winter that I have used anything OTHER than the water vapor to do my "forecasting." That's probably why I've been so outwardly frustrated this time because I was allowing myself to trust and believe the GFS & WRF when I know that's just silly. I've literally been using the water vapor image (and the IR, too) since 1994. Water vapor is pretty hard to second-guess, but at the same time it's pretty difficult to make a forecast that goes beyond a day and a half or so using it. But I love the water vapor. Gonna go see how it's shaping up now, so to speak. :)

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 14, 2007 @ 10:22 PM #

Oh, I forgot to ask Reed to please ban AJ for posting his snow photos. Cruelty!

;)

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 14, 2007 @ 10:25 PM #

i know its around 36 wind chill of 34 heidi-can you say brrrrrrr lol and looking at the radar- and how strong some of the echos are and the current temps- there may very well be some sleet or snow mixed in with this

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Matt Chatelain | December 14, 2007 @ 10:32 PM #

Yeah, there is a ton of dry air right now with the system, and Norman is enjoying a HUGE dry slot, just canceled the heavy snow warning. All soundings from Ok to Illinois have massive dry air, and even locations which have had some reflectivity haven't reported snow this evening. Its going to take a while for it to saturate tonight. I would be surprised to see over an inch here in Norman. NWS norman flipped out this afternoon, just to think there was some hope.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 14, 2007 @ 11:07 PM #

There is not a lot in the world of weather that irritates me like a good low-to-mid 30s rain. I think this should be outlawed. Reed, please ban low-to-mid 30s rain. Thanks.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By gerb131 | December 14, 2007 @ 11:26 PM #

Flood Watch/Winter Weather Advisory for me. A cold, heavy rain on Sat, we shall see.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Caro | December 14, 2007 @ 11:38 PM #

Thanks for the answer "tim Duluth Minnesota"!
And to "Donny": I'm always ready for things like this! lol It's not my first snowstorm and not the last one! lol ;-) It's just that I'm really expecting something big! Here's what environment canada says:

Watches
Gatineau
8:40 PM EST Friday 14 December 2007
Winter storm watch for
Gatineau continued

..Major winter storm with heavy snow and blowing snow threatening Saturday night and Sunday..

This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.



A major winter storm is threatening southern Ontario Saturday night and Sunday with significant amounts of snow as well as strong winds causing blowing snow. Freezing rain is also possible.

Latest analyses this evening show that the low pressure system is over southeast New Mexico and western Texas with some snow and freezing precipitation already developing across the plains states to the northeast of this low.

After the low becomes better organized over Texas tonight it will then move northeast along the Appalachians and is expected to intensify into a major winter storm as it gets closer to the lower Great Lakes Saturday night.

Significant snowfall accumulations over the regions are likely Saturday night through Sunday across much of the district. Winter storm warnings may be required for some regions due to snowfall accumulations of 25 centimetres or more in less than 24 hours. The highest snowfall amounts may be in the Hamilton into the Niagara Peninsula areas where cold northeasterly winds picking up extra moisture from Lake Ontario will help enhance snowfall amounts. Parts of eastern Ontario especially near the St Lawrence river Valley may also receive snowfall amounts in excess of 25 cm as these districts generally are closest to the track of the storm centre as it eventually gets into New England.

Significant blowing snow is expected to be a problem in all regions with freezing rain also possible especially near lakes Erie and Ontario depending on the track of the storm centre.

Current indications show that snow heavy at times will spread northeast across most of southern Ontario Saturday night then into eastern Ontario by Sunday morning and then continue for much of Sunday.

Travellers should be prepared to change plans accordingly. This winter storm will cause driving conditions to quickly deteriorate with dangerous winter travelling conditions expected Saturday night and Sunday. All motorists are advised to use extreme caution Saturday night and Sunday and plan for much extra time to reach their destination.

There is still uncertainty as to the exact track of this major winter storm. Changes in the track will affect how far north the heavy snow will reach into southern Ontario. It is important to note that this type of winter storm is easily capable of producing total snowfall amounts of more than 30 cm.

Environment Canada continues to closely monitor this situation. Appropriate weather warnings will be issued as required as this potentially dangerous winter storm evolves. Stay tuned for further updates.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 14, 2007 @ 11:49 PM #

well reason i said that caro- so many people don't realize how dangerous this kind of situation can be- and applaud you for being ready

and heidi- i second that motion on the low-mid 30 degree rain being outlawed lol

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 14, 2007 @ 11:58 PM #

We've had over a quarter-inch of rain here so far ... you know what that means?! THAT WE SHOULD HAVE ALMOST 3 INCHES OF SNOW!!!!!!! in LESS THAN 2 HRS!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Temp is down to 35.

I can't believe this happens about 3 times per year.
gfshdjbcvn;jldfk;bkdf;lvck

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Connor | December 15, 2007 @ 12:04 AM #

I think all of Heidis caffeine abuse has finally caused her to lose it...

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Caro | December 15, 2007 @ 12:16 AM #

To Donny: Thanks to worried about me! lol Everything is ready for anything! I've survived to a major icestorm in 1998 followed immediately by a snowstorm and very low temperature...it was around -40°C and we were without power...so now, when winter comes, I'm ready for it! lol

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 15, 2007 @ 12:30 AM #

lol heidi and how would you know that do you the current snow to rain ration whether its 10:1 or 6:1 or what not lol

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 15, 2007 @ 2:33 AM #

wow here it is 1:31 rains still comming down and we have doppler estimates of 4-5 inchs of rain in most of johnson county parts pope and newton county and most of searcy county- and with more heavy rainfall continued- surprised they havn't put out a flash flood warning

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Zack | December 15, 2007 @ 5:17 AM #

Guys, and Reed especially.

Reed you were right, I guess me and especially the NWS overlooked that dry slot. We are still predicted 2-3" with locally higher amounts. Still though, a far cry from the 5-8" of snow that was once predicted.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Zack | December 15, 2007 @ 7:05 AM #

Where is everybody?? I guess I have been up so early. Anyway, the snow is not very far away from the OKC viewing area. I have been looking at radar and it seems to be showing some intense convection going on ahead of the previous snowband. These snowbands are showing dark greens and even a little bit of yellow from time to time. Which is a sign of moderate to heavy snow. There have been many reports of 2-3" of snow on the ground from this band. The current temp is 34 degrees and continues to slowly fall. Meanwhile, there is new development I'm watching out in the texas Panhandle around Armarillo and Lubboc. This is getting pretty interesting...... Well see...

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Zack | December 15, 2007 @ 9:28 AM #

IT's SNOWING!!!!!

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Joe from Maine | December 15, 2007 @ 9:57 AM #

Just waiting for tomorrow to come for me here in Maine. I have a feeling we are going to get pounded, that is of course on top of our 14+ inches we already have.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Jason Young | December 15, 2007 @ 10:07 AM #

Reed,
Another bust for southern Oklahoma, no Snow! Was in Norman yesterday , man it is sad.

Jason Young
Sulphur , Oklahoma

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By AJ | December 15, 2007 @ 10:12 AM #

Looks like another white day today... it's lightly snowing now, with a wind chill of 6. I'm waiting for it to get warmer before I go get my truck serviced. haha.

Heidi: :P lol.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By AJ | December 15, 2007 @ 10:29 AM #

Is that sunshine I see?!? Oh Mylanta! lol. I guess I'll have to not only get the oil changed in my truck, but I'll have to wash it after today too. ;)

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 15, 2007 @ 11:31 AM #

We got 1.72" of rain. I'm going for the drastic end of things and saying that should have been 17 inches of snow. National Guard Helicopters should be dropping bread and milk in Izard Co. right now. Track Trucks should be on the way.

We gots some of that low-water bridge floodin a'happenin right now. Took me some photo-graphs of it, mmm hmmm. I reckon I might ought to eat me some breakfast now. I ain't havin any biscuits though. hmmmm...

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donyn | December 15, 2007 @ 11:57 AM #

you know biscuits and country gravy does sound pretty good around now while wathcing these storms in lousisna

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By caleb | December 15, 2007 @ 12:18 PM #

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA the weather men say that all the snow is gonna melt in the atmosphere. it's about 31 digreze so it's about 43 up there AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By smt | December 15, 2007 @ 12:50 PM #

Reed - we have winter storm warnings here now - for near blizzard condtions tomorrow. Yesterday the NWS said we were getting NOTHING. Hope all is well and WARM with you......

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By gerb131 | December 15, 2007 @ 12:51 PM #

Just got back from hunting and it is snowing hard as heck. I would say we have about 2 in and it has only been snowing for about 2 hrs. Looks to me the rain/snow line is staying south of the Ohio River so far and not advancing very far north of there. We shall see, if we stay all snow it is going to be DEEP! Later from C-Bus Ohio.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By greg | December 15, 2007 @ 2:03 PM #

Joe from Maine...maines a state? whoa tottaly forgot.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Susan | December 15, 2007 @ 2:23 PM #

We have snow goin on now for about 2 hours/very pretty scenery! in Northern IL.

I hope the low lever bridge flooding thing is drowning your armadillos Heidi-or maybe it is causing them to search for higher grounds????lol

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Chris Bray | December 15, 2007 @ 4:06 PM #

Is it just me, or does it seem like winter weather is even harder to predict than spirng/summer???

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 15, 2007 @ 4:10 PM #

Susan, you're probably right on the second option. Their holes are likely to be flooded and have them in our back yard all night, tearing it to pieces.

And now for the most boring weather report possible: 36 degrees, rain/snow mix, miserable and disgusting outside with a 90% chance of it continuing for the next several hours. The other 10% is reserved for the possibility that the temp will drop enough for real snowflakes to begin falling. *faints*

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 15, 2007 @ 5:08 PM #

ohh no you don't nobady faints when i'm still alive and kicking lol- but on the other hand heidi- i'll allow you to faint if you just looked at the precip type 12z model run its showing snow for us christmas eve- the 26th

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By SKgirl | December 15, 2007 @ 5:27 PM #

I'm finally in Canora, and measured the snow in front yard:
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1851137&l=182a4&id=655785264


Here's a bonus pic for you ;)
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1851137&l=182a4&id=655785264

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Reed | December 15, 2007 @ 5:32 PM #

sorry for the lack of a blog update guys! I'm hoping to have one up this evening. I don't have Internet here and can't produce a blog entry on my phone!

Tornado warnings east of here in the FL Panhandle. Textbook supercells rolling in off the Gulf.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 15, 2007 @ 5:50 PM #

don't forget the tornado watch also lol and my guess is that there most likely HP in nature

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By gerb131 | December 15, 2007 @ 6:00 PM #

NASTY here in Ohio where I'am just south of Columbus I have about 2.2in of snow and experiencing freezing rain and rain going back and forth. Roads myy way are ok but they are getting worse as the night falls. My buddy who is about 70 miles north of Columbus has nearly 6 on the ground.
Nasty storms along the Gulf for sure.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Outlawchasers | December 15, 2007 @ 6:05 PM #

For those who might be interested...our documentary will air on X-mas night at 9:00pm on CourtTV. It is called
Tornado hunters...please see the post/link below.
Thanks,
Lanny

http://www.courttv.com/onair/shows/upcoming_series/index.html

Tornado Hunters - NEW!
Tuesday, December 25 at 10pm E/P
Randy Hicks and Lanny Dean formed a renegade gang of storm chasers called "the Outlaw Chasers". Using present and past-tense footage, we'll learn the story of the Chasers and follow them in their quest to fulfill their dream: filming inside a tornado. TV-14 L

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 15, 2007 @ 6:12 PM #

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
459 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VERNON...

* UNTIL 545 PM CST

* AT 457 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERNON...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
EAST OF SANTA ROSA BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VERNON BY 525 PM CST...

-----------------

This is just SE of the Elgin AFB radar site! Wall-to-wall coverage in Mobile?? Or out of the viewing area?

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 15, 2007 @ 6:14 PM #

Hey Lanny, it's times like this when I wish we got more than 2 channels. Maybe it will make it to NetFlix (or YouTube!) ??

Nice going on that, though. :)

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Strike | December 15, 2007 @ 6:30 PM #

SKgirl, the bonus pic look eerily similar to the first pic.

Reed, you need a new phone. One that does blog updates.

Oh yeah, and please ban Heidi from banning anymore people or events.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 15, 2007 @ 6:32 PM #

my money says that tornado is rain-wrapped

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By SKgirl | December 15, 2007 @ 6:34 PM #

oops, ok so THIS is the snow pic:

http://photos-a.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sf2p/v159/125/92/655785264/n655785264_1851136_2687.jpg

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Outlawchasers | December 15, 2007 @ 6:45 PM #

Heidi, you can get a taste of it by youtube ing outlawchasers...you will see the 'old" trailer
gotta go,
Best to all,
Lanny

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By tim Duluth Minnesota | December 15, 2007 @ 7:02 PM #

hmmmmm, not sure if about that bonus pic SKgirl, nothing came up on my screen, anyone else have that problem? Or is it just my computer?? hmm hmm hmm.. Looks like a nice massive winter storm tracking up into the Northeast U.S. and parts of Quebec and Southeastern Ontario by later Tonight through early Monday! Even some severe weather across the Southeast U.S., niceeeeeeeeeeeeee!!! I only wish it was closer to Minnesota, i need more snow, we only have 15-20 inches on the ground here in Duluth..argh!

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Connor | December 15, 2007 @ 7:02 PM #

Donny where do you live? And where on the GFS does it show snow for you around Christmas?

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By tim Duluth Minnesota | December 15, 2007 @ 7:06 PM #

ok nvm, it would prolly help if i paste/copy the whole link..ha! boy i'm bad!! cool pics Skgirl

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 15, 2007 @ 7:21 PM #

conner i am in central arkansas and it shows snow for us - the one thing that i have noticed is that the gfs keeps on trying to put alot of cold air in the southeast torwards christmas

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By tim Duluth Minnesota | December 15, 2007 @ 7:21 PM #

there's actually 2 more storms lined up this week and next weekend for the Central Plains/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Eastern U.S. The 2nd storm, being the one next weekend looks to be the biggest right now, but that could change.. Too early to tell where the rain/snow line sets up.. But needless to say, the active weather pattern rolls on at least another week, hopefully these storms can sneak up into Minnesota?? Time will tell

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 15, 2007 @ 7:46 PM #

Now for more complaining: I just realized that every other reporting location in our viewing area received more rain than we did. The county just south of us had almost 5" of rain. AND now there are the most wimpy snowflakes of all time falling from the sky. They're probably being blown here from Missouri.

Nice photos, SKgirl!

Reed, please ban Strike for having a vowel as the last letter in his name.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Connor | December 15, 2007 @ 7:54 PM #

Haha Heidi, before you say that you might want to carefully examine your own name.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 15, 2007 @ 7:59 PM #

im kinda liking H-0 and N-7 for tornado development in tallahassee if anyone else is watching them

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By MynameisBen | December 15, 2007 @ 7:59 PM #

Wow! Going crazy here in IL! I'm in Central IL, and were are right in the middle of the Mesoscale discussion. A heavy snowband has set up over us and the wind is blowing 10-15-gusts to 20, and forecast to climb to 15-25 sustained and 35mph gusts.

I'm in Tazewell Co...It kinda looks like a Tea Kettle on the maps.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 15, 2007 @ 8:12 PM #

Connor: Shhhhhhh!!! ;-P

Ben, I just saw Chicago on the national news, and it was hard to watch. That should have been us last night! Great big flakes there at your place, right?

Donny yeah, the GFS looks very interesting for late next weekend. I don't hold out much hope that the temps will be cold enough when the precip is here though. I thank I mighta learnt me sumthin this time, mmm hmm. :D Looks like a real nor'easter next weekend too. Our family in Maine is gonna really get pounded if that comes to pass. (And Joe in ME, too!)

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Donny | December 15, 2007 @ 8:18 PM #

interesting is an understatement-lol i mean it has been showing snow for us- well i cant say consistently- but say for example last nights 18z run took the snow out of arkansas christmas day- and todays 12z run brought t back in- and tis been doing this around christmas time for the past several days t makes you wonder- is it really going to happen- i hope so

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By caleb | December 15, 2007 @ 8:32 PM #

THERE IS ICE ON THE TREES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! look at this

2022 4 W NAVARRE SANTA ROSA FL 3041 8693 TWO HOMES REPORTEDLY LOSS THEIR ROOFS...POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE. (MOB)

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By MynameisBen | December 15, 2007 @ 8:47 PM #

Yep Heidi Great big ole flakes...I stole em from you. I see a gap forming in the snow...to the west, but then it looks like another band is possibly forming?

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By caleb | December 15, 2007 @ 8:49 PM #

this is a truly amazing vid

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CGam7GohfQ&feature=related

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Caro | December 15, 2007 @ 9:07 PM #

lol on the news the said that we will recieve between 15 and 45 cm of snow for our reagion... They really want to be right for this one lol Last time, they said 10 to 20 cm and we had 40 cm... they won't take a chance for tomorrow this time! hahaha

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Caro | December 15, 2007 @ 9:09 PM #

sorry...theY and region...my figers sliped

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Caro | December 15, 2007 @ 9:32 PM #

lol on the news the said that we will recieve between 15 and 45 cm of snow for our reagion... They really want to be right for this one lol Last time, they said 10 to 20 cm and we had 40 cm... they won't take a chance for tomorrow this time! hahaha

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 15, 2007 @ 9:41 PM #

Caro, you are going to have some awesome photos for us!

We're actually getting some nice snowflakes now, too, as opposed to the wimpy ones from before. It will not accumulate ... or, that is to say, if it does I will be surprised. The temp has finally dropped to 31 and there is a layer of ice forming on everything that was wet.

Hey Caleb (or anyone else), if you want to see a really awesome video, check out this site:

http://www.thestormsof2007.org/

I just got the one for this year and it instantly became the best tornado video/DVD in my collection. Reed made a production of the Manitoba tornado on there, and there is a lot of his other footage on it too, plus a bunch of other guys you all know from this page - Michael O, Dick M. & Darin, Wes ... just to name a few. All of the proceeds go to the Red Cross to help storm victims from this year. Dick M. reports that Greensburg still needs a lot of help, incidentally. Anyway, just thought I'd remind everyone, since it's the Holiday season, in case you need something else to as for ;)

Reed says that his 2007 highlight video will be out sometime soon, too.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Heidi | December 15, 2007 @ 9:43 PM #

Oh yeah ...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WILCOX COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 945 PM EST

* AT 937 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ROCHELLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BROWNING AND ABBEVILLE.

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Caro | December 15, 2007 @ 10:07 PM #

Yes Heidi! I'll try to do my best sharing with everyone what we will get here! I'm going to bed now. I'll be up early tomorrow for the snowstorm!

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By AJ | December 15, 2007 @ 11:08 PM #

Whoa... looks like it was a busy day... see what I miss when I have to work?? lol. Oh well, it happens...

Southern Plains/New England winter weather insanity! Comment Posted By Cors | December 16, 2007 @ 9:06 AM #

copters are in the air! heading for the damage path...LIVESTREAM: http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/live/primarystream.html

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