News DetailSnow event looking much weaker than previously thought
Posted At: December 12, 2007 @ 10:05 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Snow
Thankfully for the residents of Oklahoma and Missouri, especially those who still don't have power, the new model runs have backed off significantly on the potential snow storm this weekend. If the 00z WRF verifies, then 2-4 inches max will fall across northeast OK, with a dusting across surrounding areas. As seen in the selected panels below valid for 12z Saturday, the upper vorticity maximum is much weaker than in previous runs, and the trough is more positively tilted and "sheared out" (see 500 mb map upper left below). Thus, the surface features are ill-defined (see forecast surface map lower right below), and the resulting precipitation is MUCH less than previously forecast. Still though, this potential snow event is a few days out, and much can change in the model forecasts between now and then. Stay tuned for updates!
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NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I saved a screen shot of the WRF run before this one. I think I am going to frame it, as a reminder of what might COULD HAVE BEEN!!!!!!!!! AAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CRUSHING!!!!!!!!
This is about like a 3-day Moderate Risk turning into a SEE TEXT. jhsdbcvnkl;dfbvdf;alkbndafljkvncmlk
WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN!!!!!!!
http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/0ZSundayPrecip.gif
The NAM has been all over the place with this one, so I'm personally not too interested in what it has to say until we get within the 24-48 hour range. However, the GFS has looked fairly unimpressive all along, so it doesn't offer much in the way of additional hope for a significant event. Based on the GFS/GFS ensembles and ECMWF's relative consistency, it seems like a swath of 3-6" is still quite possible, though almost certainly north of I-40 (somewhere between OKC and ICT, possibly farther north if northward model trends continue).
I second everything Heidi just said :(
With all hopes of anything significant from this event shattered, I just hope maybe there's another snow system coming through right after the 10 day period of the GFS. Maybe... I don't know... around Christmas?
But that's unlikely. My dad, who has lived here his entire life, has never seen a white Christmas. Ever. In his 59 Christmases in Texas (that word looks weird to me).
i third what heidi said *beats up the model* there now model you better show snow on there again otherwise i'll do worse to you - but like reed said- it can still go back to the thought of snow fuor us
How's things tonight?? I'm effin tired!! but i have a few days off finally!! I'll check back when I get up!! hehe
i'm off the next 2 nights as well, and next week i only work 3 nights-hmm, oh well i guess that'll give me time to get my christmas shopping done-lol.. LOL @ Heidi, that was a good one about the mod risk turning into a see text, that seems to happen quite often here in Minnesota-lol.. Had a dusting of snow on the windshield when i left work This Morning, temp wise not too shabby-hovering around 20 degrees right now, but the arctic air is swooping SE quite quickly, winds gusting over 40 mph in NW MN at 7 AM CST with near blizzard conditions in blowing snow up in that area!
@Connor- Thats funny because for the first time that i remember last year was the first time we didnt have a white Christmas.
This Ice deal has caused alot more weather related deaths. Be careful out there, Ive been in a close call due to low visibility/Ice.
We are currently under a blizzard warning here in Winnipeg. Major highways closed all around the city.
Tim and Brady, this is probably coming your way.
Wicked cold forecast for tonight as well. -34c or -29f not including the windchill.
Yay winter.
Reed, please ban Strike from posting here.
;)
Thats right, as Strike says, a Blizzard Warning is in effect. Highways closed, schools cancelled. Even though my schol isnt cancelled I get the day off! :D:D:D
Sorry though Brady and Tim, this Alberta Clipper is gonna pack its larger punch in northen Ontario today instead of your area, warnings are in place accordungly there.
Heidi has offically lost it. thats all i have to say right now.
here is a vid showing the ice falling off a huge tv tower...
looks like a classic snow event for Norman. An inch of snow followed by a massive dry slot! Climatology wins out again! Southeast KS could get a lot though. .
Tough to tell here in Ohio. Again the rain/snow line will be the I70 corridor. Hope we get some, after yesterdays .69 of rain and now its 37 and light rain.
click my name for a good weather website.
Hey guys, any shot at enough snow to go sledding in Wentzville, MO? My kids are very excited! I hope stuff kicks up enough to do something!
I dunno Reed.... It isn't official just yet. And besides i'm in the 2-4 inch range! YAY!
man this stinks we got barely any snow and stuff here all becuz it switched to rain i wanted get bad but i might get some more from storm u goes sayin not gunna be as strong for u here its gunna become a noreaster
woohooo just looked at the 12z preicp type- while we may not get snow here saturday- theres some model hype on christmas
Hey Reed,
I'm in a winter storm watch for this weekend and as always I will be taking video and photos if you want me to send you a link if you would want to post some video on your site just let me know. Forecast calls for 6+ inches here!!!!
Grr! lol. How come it's always eastern KS that gets the action? :P I'll check the models for the latest SW forecast... as soon as they update...
lol aj- 12z gfs is out
haha. Thanks for telling me after the fact ;) jk. Let's see... comparing the NOAA models and this new one... snow advisory in effect until sometime tomorrow afternoon, with a 90% prob of snow, accumulating to over 3" on Friday! haha! Wonder what the school admin. is thinking about this, if school will be in session for me tomorrow or not... :D
I'm waiting for the next update here...Seems like a boring, yet fair week! we hit plus 2 at 5 in the morning here yesterday.
I've a strange hankerin for some machine-separated pork by-products.
http://www.spam.com/whatisspam/
(make sure the sound is on)
In other news ... snow must happen this weekend or there will be a large amount of screaming involved, particularly if the temperature is cemented at 33 degrees. It'll sound something like AAAAAAA
Hey AJ I wouldnt be complaining I was in SW Kansas for six chases this year!! I'd much rather be seeing tornadoes close by than snow.
haha. True, good point Michael... I guess I better quit complaining, after all, I am getting some snow, or supposed to... we'll see how it plays out.
Reed, please ban AJ too.
;)
SSSSSSSSSNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOWWWWWWW!!!!! lmao. Just picking on you Heidi! ;)
Weird!! Ooooff!! It's gettin chilly out!! A lil flurrie here earlier!! Nuttin to write home about!! hey my Bday 417
now now children winter hasn't officially began there will be plenty of snowballs to throw at each other later :p
Your right Donny!! I think us here in Minny tend to think Winter Start Nov 21st!! and ends May 21st !hehe
hahahaha. I think after tomorrow, winter will have started for us in SW Kansas! lol. We almost always see our snow in January or later. This system tonite is pretty odd for our area.
haha well while it has snowed there it still doesnt mean winter has began lol
all quiet here in old europe, just one crazy low heading for iceland..Man reed that ok storm even made the news over here.
yea Brady, remember the LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS that hit Duluth last year in May, i believe it was the beginning of the fishing season too? this clipper hasn't done much here in our neck of the woods, although it's pulling in another dose of icy cold air, the brunt of the snow was off to our north..I'm sure it was bad over parts of Manitoba and Ontario though
can you say blizzard? lol
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/blizzard.png
To bad that blizzard will most likely be to far south of me but that has gotten my attention.
well the shame is matt- that some people don't really give a rats abdomen about this serious of a situation
ya thats true. Its pretty bad the day i found this website we had a tornado warned supercell heading right at us, and there were little kids out on there bikes having a great time like nothing was happening at all. Its pretty sad.
Oh and the supercell weakend before it hit us.
Oh and i have some video from the mini ice storm that we got here(same storm system that hit Reed but not as bad)but i have been way to busy to edited plus ive giving my time painting race cars for my Nascar game. 4-5 hours per car its a pain in the a**
"Some people are weather-wise... and some are otherwise..." Benjamin Franklin. I hate it when people could care less about the weather. I just don't get it... lol.
im uploading my prelimerary video stormchasers,,or rather a tribute to... its something ive been thinking about making for some time now but i couldnt really be bothered actually making it till now. in my mind it would look better but its a prelimerary..ouff its so much more work making vids then pictures! :P well not making vids..editing ;)
I remember the last episode of storm chasers there driving through that town and theres people hanging out outside with the tornado sirens going off and everything. And a tornado on the ground also.
Anyways im out for the night guys ill be back on tomorrow. Taking a break from this car crap.
If you mean May '06 Tim, I remember well!! My Bro and I were fishing on Lake Superior in a Damn Near White out!! It was awesome!! I have a full canvas camper back on the boat and heaters so It was comfy in the boat!! The lake was like glass, but the snow wouldn't stop!! Makes me love living here!!
you know aj- it is said people don't understand that weather cna mean the difference between life and death
Yeah, I know. You just wanna slug 'em sometimes. I guess it won't hit home until they're affected by the storm, sadly enough. Yet another reason to chase...
Hmm... I should expect to see snow on the doorstep around the time I'm leaving for school...
I agree with you Donny. Most of my friends don't understand my passion for weather. A lot of them don't even know what I'm talking about when I say Greensburg (except one who just moved here from Kansas).
If more people were as interested as all of us in the weather a lot of lives would be saved...
yeah well you can't make people go to there tornado shelter- you know i can understand why because some of the tornado warnings issued didn't have a visual confirmation- but again- better safe then sorry
well pardon this pun it's like this- you see lightning people go huh what- you yell tornado- people dont dont give a rats abdomen
It's very sad how lightly people take the most violent weather.
I can remember telling my friends to be prepared for some severe storms on April 13 this year and they said nothing was ever gonna happen. This was the same day four tornadoes touched down miles from my house in DFW.
I think it's funny when people try to tell me things about our weather that I know is Bass ackwars, especially when I've been blogin with you all about the event! Like when I took the vid and pics from the Lake! These older ladies I was talking to where commenting on the clipper that passed through, that was the storm that came through the plains!! The clipper came a day after, which missed us and brought the lake effect event!!
Mkay my vid..a tribute to stormchasers..is online. its just a prelimerary video im gonna fine tune it with the music and at more scenes, btw strange i could convert tv.nets .flv vids from youtube..mwaha maybe a build in security?! anyways here it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BibvFQbkPA
btw i shouldn say MY vid cause its not really mine I just did the crappy edit. :D
And to think guys, I get called crazy for risking life and limb driving into heavy precip cores and parking under huge RFDs... I think the people standing there gawking until the last minute are the crazy ones, but, that's strictly a matter of opinion, and personal bias. It's also a locality thing, but that's another offshoot to this topic. Fortunately, most of my friends find it cool that I'm a weather geek. lol
I kinda like the semi-celebrity status that comes with the title of "storm chaser," but that of course is not the main reason why I chase. Ben Franklin was right... some are weather-wise, some are otherwise. What can we do? Hope they're smart enough to listen to their NOAA weather radios. Sometimes I have little faith in people, but I would be a hypocrit if I said I didn't have any faith at all...
nice video cors- that likes like the greensburg tornado- and thanks for the tribute- reminded me of my own days i chased- well anyway thanks
you know...AJ..we all gonna die!...the question that remains....Do you wanna fade away?....or turn the sky alight!!!!
An a much lighter note... lol. Awesome Cors!! That's the best intense footage! And nice choice in music by the way... hard rock and insane weather footage seem to go together... hehe
hehe thx guys, yea rock seems to go good with severe weather for some reason :D im gonna tune this vid more to make the pics follow the music a bit more...arghh reed send me some avi,mpg or something i cant convert tv.net youtube files :P ....just kiddn?
Interesting offshoot to the topic ... My neighbor is pretty much one of those people who laughs at me when I tell him that the vertical striations in the massive supercell to the north is an indication that it is probably putting down monster hail. Then 15 minutes later his mom calls him as there are softballs falling in their yard (20 miles north of us) causing enough damage to warrant an insurrance claim (this was the storm that eventually produced the Marmaduke tornado in April of '06) ... Then in Sept. '06, the day Reed chased here, this same guy was the last one in our other neighbor's storm shelter, looking white as a sheet, even after I'd been telling him all day what was up. About 10 seconds after he shut the hatch, baseballs were falling in the yard above us. He took my "weather alerts" a little mroe seriously this year! ;D
Cors, I think the answer to "how do you wanna leave this world" is easy... in a swirling vortex with fame and glory under your belt, and an awesome time having had before hand! lol.
hahaha. Heidi, that's a good example of a otherwise person being changed into a weather-wise one!
Good conversations! I hate to leave, but sleep calls. See ya!
hahah nice moment of glory Heidi!! Ive experienced similar situations a.o. with my friend in spain..lol ...ps good answer AJ! :)
Haha Heidi, I've had the same experience this year. After the previously mentioned "Friday the 13th" tornado event here in the metroplex, my friends take me a little more seriously.
I was actually on the highway at the time the supercell plowed straight through Dallas, and I drove through the damage path of one of the twisters (I think in Haltom City?).
Now some of my friends actually rely on me completely for the weather. I seem to get questions like, "What's the weather gonna be like Friday?" and "Do we have a chance for snow this weekend?" and "Could we get any hail or tornadoes soon?" a lot now.
thats awesome heidi- i do the same thing here- when im watching out for my friends in western ky - there so in the country they dont have sireens i break it down telling them you know model readings, my analysis- sometimes i overdue it though-and over-stress it though- but you know- theres no glory in storm chasing even with all the good pictures- theres no glory unless you know for a fact that you warned someone and gave them enough time to seek shelter
heidi has to run. I cant believe people put there vids on youtube and expect them to remain ..uncopied... I mean I know many media outleds that link or frame vids from youtube to show on their own page, im sure without paying the makers a dime, for instance aol news used my vid for its own opinions, i dont mind but besides you can still make money selling the higher definition video to the big media networks. basically my point is right here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SaFTm2bcac
hmmmmm....the eary silency makes me question my intentions..brrr (.......flashbacks from u.s. college and their terrible copyright website scan,,,luckely not in dutch yet :P )
Yes Brady i was referring to May of 06, lol i hated it to be honest with ya. I got off work at 6 AM, walked to my jeep and looked up at the sky and had big juicy snowflakes flop down onto my face, but that was also the same weekend that we had that huge elevated supercell blast thru the city which came that Monday the 14th of May, talk about crazy weather changes..
talking about crazy weather changes..anyone hear manbearpig talking at the oskars uhhh i mean nobels...makes you wonder did he watch firestorm2007 on youtube? mwaahahaaheehehhhihi.. btw check out 3min and 11sec to 3min12 its prolly the best audio to visual moment in the vid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BibvFQbkPA
cool vid cors!
Boy this storm this weekend looks like a biggy for the Northeast U.S. Possibly a classic Nor'Easter setting up, two lows merging into one, and possibly bombing out. The New England football game on Sunday should be very interesting if this big storm pans out, perhaps mother nature will be allow the Pats to actually loose 1 game this season..ha!
thx tim but its not really my vid. uhuuh aaa nor easter nice i remember one i experience in nyc oh boy will never underestimate a storm like that ever again! lol tim thats how stalin beat the germans :P reminds me of this vid sorry but its just hillarious : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkDxF2kn1I
Tim I just looked at the GFS, and wow! This storm looks huge!
And yes, the winds this would bring could definitely destroy the Patriots monster passing game, as we saw in Baltimore. But I was kinda hoping that the Patriots would sustain their only loss to Miami. The best team losing to the worst team :)
WOW!!! MAJOR BLIZZARD!!!
the next blog post will definitely be extensive. Damn i wish I could go up there.
HA Reed! updates please ;)
yea i wish i could head out there as well, weather here in Northern Minnesota has been quite dull as of late.. lol that would be something if the Phins defeat the Pats, but i HIGHLY doubt that'll happen, but hey ya never know
and im hoping for a more uplifting title on the next post!..I vote this post title worst ever! : much weaker than previously thought,,,yak! :D
haha...that title needs to be changed maybe based on the new 00z models!
THE APOCALYPSE
THATs better!, a little marketing never heard anybody :P hehehe
oh no I spelled ear wrong I ment to say hurt. reed wot you think of 3min11sec audio visiual cohesion btw.
Nananananan!!! Major snowstorm for me sunday!!! (south-west of the province of quebec) They are forecasting between 10 and 15 inches of snow! What do you think about that? Is it real??? If it is, Yahoooooo!!! I hope it's really coming my way!!!
414 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
AND ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE THAN A
FOOT OF SNOW. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...WHERE SNOW MAY MIX
WITH SLEET AT TIMES...POTENTIAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30
MPH MAY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION
The difference between the canadian forecast and yours is weard... Environnement Canada Says 20 to 40 cm of snow and the NOOA says between 6 to 12 inches... wich means around 15 to 30 cm... For one time I prefer ours! lol
Hey Caro, you should be careful what you say.... Heidi will have you kicked off of here if its too fun sounding.
hehehe
Sounds like we are going to get 6-9" of snow starting this afternoon through tomorrow noon. Finally some real snow instead of the darn ICE :) Nice video Cors!!
Sorry Strike...I didn't want to make you angry... lol It's just that I'm so excited to recieve another big snow storm in tow weeks! Since the last one, we'd recieved almost 20 cm of snow so on the ground there's approximately 50 cm of it. It's so nice for the winter sports ! I'm just worrying about the natural skating rink...when there's to much snow, the ice can't freez enough to go on it...
Reed, please ban Caro, Brady, Tim MN, Strike, Matt and AJ and anyone else who lives north of the Arkansas border. They continue to post only rubbish ... SNOW photos, SNOWSTORM warnings, SNOW SNOW SNOW... It's giving me an ulcer. Thanks Reed, yer the best.
Hi, I'm back. I've been at Santa's bakery all week baking cookies. So far, I have about 40 dozen of 9 different kinds with 3 more kind to go. The grandchildren helped yesterday as there was no school due to the ice storm we received. The weekend sounds interesting. Some say a nor'easter, others say just snow. We'll see. By the way, Heidi, I have all these cookies and your favorite kinds. .
Reed, you see what you guys are missing by not going after the NOR'EASTER in Western MD! ^^^ She ain't lyin when she says she baked that many. There'll be 60 dozen by Sunday.
Wow that is one major storm! Looks like lots of snow for people I know around the Richmond Hill/Toronto area! Looks like there will be major chaos on the roads there.
In other news, it is very cold here, windchills near -40! As I type this my cat is licking the window trying to lick ice off it though its on the outside. I better go stop them lol...looks ridiculous.
well i know this is far in advance- but look at the gfs total aculated snowfall for christmas using athe 10:1 ratio- those in here that doesnt know what it is- basically that would accukmulate 10 inchs of snow for every 1 inch of rain that falls
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/xmas1213aaa.gif